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STOCKY – play and predict the future Domas Monkus [email protected] Nous www.nous.lt

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Project presentation on Startup Jam Baltics.

TRANSCRIPT

STOCKY – play and predict the future

Domas [email protected]

Nous

www.nous.lt

http://www.nous.lt/

Who are the winners of Eurovision?

● Polls● Expert opinions● Statistical models

● „You mean who I'd like to win?“● Insincere disclosure● Incomplete information

Prediction markets

● Stocks are tied to events● Stock payouts depend on the outcomes● Stock prices correlate with the probabilities

Prediction markets

The benefit? Accuracy!

Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 US President election

Democrats

Republicans

Prediction markets

Why?● „Wisdom of the crowds“ (J.Surowiecki)● Incentives for information discovery and truthful revelation of beliefs● Efficient market hypothesis

Stocky

Demokratai

Respublikonai

Why facebook?

A channel for:● User acquisition● User activation● User retention● User referrals

High trading volumes and thus a large user base is necessary for forecasting accuracy.

What's next?

● More markets● Geo and social market recommendations● Paid markets● Growth

Public beta!

http://apps.facebook.com/stocky_beta/

Thank you

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Blue x blue triangles...the Canadian Pacific Railway steamship service, short, stocky as a bear, with firm, clefted chin, piercing blue eyes, and a rolling sailor's walk. Before the

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