stories to watch 2012

38
MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENT JANUARY 10, 2012

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Looking ahead to the big environmental and sustainability stories for 2012. Topics include: What does the U.S. presidential election mean for key environmental issues, including the future of the EPA? What will be the key drivers for renewable energy in 2012? What does China’s upcoming leadership transition mean? How will the expanding global population impact scarce natural resources, including forests? What will happen at the 2012 Earth Summit in Rio?

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Stories to Watch 2012

MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENTJANUARY 10, 2012

Page 2: Stories to Watch 2012

The Prediction Game

Page 3: Stories to Watch 2012

How Will 2011 Be Remembered?

Page 4: Stories to Watch 2012

How Will 2011 Be Remembered?

http://www.inquisitr.com/168221/occupy-wall-street-stomps-on-stimulus/

Page 5: Stories to Watch 2012

1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year

2. Transitions in China

3. An Overlooked Breadbasket

4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?

5. A Bravo for Rio?

Stories to Watch 2012

Page 6: Stories to Watch 2012

1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year

2. Transitions in China

3. An Overlooked Breadbasket

4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?

5. A Bravo for Rio?

Stories to Watch 2012

Page 7: Stories to Watch 2012

Pres. Obama calls for clean energy standards

Offshore drilling expanded

EPA ozone rules delayed

National vehicle rules established

EPA Mercury &Air Toxics Rules

U.S. Climate Policy - 2011

CA Air Resources Board adopts final cap-and-trade regulation

Jan. Mar. Jul.

Keystone decision delayed

Sec. Clinton urges EUto change approach to curbing aviation emissions

Nov.Oct. Dec.

Page 8: Stories to Watch 2012

Source: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States Using Existing Federal Authorities and State Action, World Resources Institute, 2010

U.S. GHG Emissions Target for 2020

Page 9: Stories to Watch 2012

Power Plant Performance Standards

Efficiency Standards for Appliances and Equipment

Transportation Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles MY 2017-2025

Refinery Performance Standards

Natural Gas System Regulations for VOCs, SO2, & Toxics

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Administration’s Rulemaking Report Card

YES NO

Page 10: Stories to Watch 2012

CA & RGGI States Represent Sizable Economies

• CA: GHG cap-and-trade program in 2013 will cover 85% of emissions by 2015

• RGGI: GHG cap-and-trade program for electricity covers more than 20% of region's total emissions

California13.3%

U.S. (balance)67.7%

RGGI (10 states)19%

Percent of U.S. GDP 2009

Source: US Census

Page 11: Stories to Watch 2012

“I will clean up the planet, I will make global warming a priority.”

Sen. John McCain, Jan. 2008

“Let us resolve that all nations--including my own--will act with seriousness of purpose, and reduce the carbon we send into our atmosphere.”

Candidate Barack Obama, July 2008

Yesterday & Today

Page 12: Stories to Watch 2012

Yesterday & Today

“I do support capping carbon emissions.”

Gov. Sarah PalinOctober 2008, Vice Presidential Debate

Page 13: Stories to Watch 2012

Campaign 2012

Page 14: Stories to Watch 2012

1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year

2. Transitions in China

3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?

4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?

5. A Bravo for Rio?

Stories to Watch 2012

Page 15: Stories to Watch 2012

2. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/whoswho-cnt.aspx?id=20101208000064&cid=20

Li KeqiangXi Jinping

3. http://tilt.ft.com/#!posts/2011-08/26926/chinas-changing-of-guard

1. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/15/xin_4720305151238906199427.jpg

China’s President, Premier and Politburo

Page 16: Stories to Watch 2012

Clean Energy Trade War?

Page 17: Stories to Watch 2012

US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Brief: China”http://205.254.135.24/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH

Total Energy Consumption (Btu) in China, 2008

Coal Consumption in China

Page 18: Stories to Watch 2012

“It’s very clear in China’s Five-Year Plan that it’s our objective to gradually establish a national system on carbon emissions trading.” 

- Su Wei

Photo by Miguel Villagran/Getty Images Europe

Su WeiDirector General for Climate ChangeNational Development and Reform Commission

China’s Provincial CO2 Trading Systems

Page 19: Stories to Watch 2012

CaliforniaIndia

EU

China Provinces

Australia

New Zealand

RGGI States

CO2 & Efficiency Trading Around the World

Page 20: Stories to Watch 2012

1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year

2. Transitions in China

3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?

4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?

5. A Bravo for Rio?

Stories to Watch 2012

Page 21: Stories to Watch 2012

Accelerating Global Food Demand

Page 22: Stories to Watch 2012

Annual Average Global Yield Rates

Source: Alston, Beddow and Pardey (2009) using FAO (2008) and USDA FAS (2008)

Crop 1961-1990

1990-2007

% Difference

Wheat 2.9 0.5 - 83%

Maize 2.2 1.8 - 18%

Rice 2.2 0.9 - 59%

Soya 1.8 1.1 - 39%

Page 23: Stories to Watch 2012

Degraded Lands: An Opportunity?

Indonesia

Brazil

Page 24: Stories to Watch 2012

Restoration Stories in 2012

Indonesia

http://www.globalforestwatch.org/english/indonesia/forests.htm

http://indepthafrica.com/global-issues/dilma-rousseff-declares-the-winner-of-brazil-election/

Brazil

Consumer Goods Forum

Consumers

Page 25: Stories to Watch 2012

1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year

2. Transitions in China

3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?

4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?

5. A Bravo for Rio?

Stories to Watch 2012

Page 26: Stories to Watch 2012

Source:EIA, IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Global Energy Investment for Power Generation

Page 27: Stories to Watch 2012

IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources-SPM 2011, pg 10.

IPCC Global Review of Renewable Energy

Page 28: Stories to Watch 2012

NREL, Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States, 2009, Figure 8.

Residential Solar Power by 2015 (U.S.)

Page 29: Stories to Watch 2012

China: Wind energy competitive in two years and solar PV by 2015.

Germany: Wind electricity spot prices cheaper than fossil fuels some days in 2011.

FL, NC, NJ, Southwest: Solar PV close to competitive with fossil fuels.

Italy, Spain, Greece & Portugal: Solar PV competitive within two years.

Island Nations, Japan & Hawaii: Solar PV competitive within two years.

And competitively priced renewables are not just taking off in the U.S…

India: Solar PV competitive with on-grid diesel generation.

Brazil: In 2011, Wind energy auctions undercut price of natural gas.

Page 30: Stories to Watch 2012

The Shale Gas Boom

Time Magazine, April 2011

Page 31: Stories to Watch 2012

Source: Brookings

U.S. Clean Energy Policy & Incentives

Page 32: Stories to Watch 2012
Page 33: Stories to Watch 2012

1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year

2. Transitions in China

3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?

4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?

5. A Bravo for Rio?

Stories to Watch 2012

Page 34: Stories to Watch 2012

Rio 1992

Johannesburg 2002

Stockholm 1972

Rio 2012

Earth Summits 1972-2012

Page 35: Stories to Watch 2012

Institutional Framework for Sustainable Development

Green Economy

Rio Earth Summit 2012

Page 36: Stories to Watch 2012

• Green economy roadmap, UNEO

• No new institutions, engage private sector and social media

• Late engagement, defensive posture

• Keep “common but differentiated responsibilities”

• Opportunity to shine, strong involvement of Rio city

Rio: What are they saying?

Page 37: Stories to Watch 2012

What to Look for at Rio+20

Energy Access GovernanceWaterFood Security

© ICRC

http://www.nexusafrica.ca/africa-in-2011-getting-out-the-vote-the-call/

http://vivekitam.wordpress.com/2011/01/14/a-paperback-analysis-of-nacs-food-security-proposal-part-2/http://www.new-ventures.org/content/scaling-clean-energy-access-india-workshop

Page 38: Stories to Watch 2012

MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENT

JANUARY 10, 2012