stories to watch 2014 - europe
DESCRIPTION
What stories will impact people and the planet in 2014? On 18 February 2014, Executive Vice President and Managing Director Manish Bapna offered his perspectives on the major global developments in economics, business, natural resources and sustainability in the coming year. The event was hosted by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands. Find out more at http://www.wri.org.TRANSCRIPT
1
FEATURING
Manish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI
Image: Flickr/NA.dir
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ECONOMIC RECESSION IS OVER G
DP
GR
OW
TH
Source: IMF, 2013
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST G
DP
GR
OW
TH
BRAZIL
Source: IMF, 2013
$15 trillion
$30tr
$50tr
$100tr
1970
1990
2010
Real GDP
(2005 dollars)
2030
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACK
THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
1990
1 Billion
2010
2 Billion
2030
5 Billion
Source: Reuters, OECD 2010
1.2 billion people living on less than
$1.25 per day
100 million children undernourished or
underweight
123 million youth lacking basic literacy skills
1 billion lack basic sanitation facilities
(UNDP 2013)
UNFINISHED BUSINESS
Overweight Hungry
900 Million
1.2 Billion
EXPONENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
THE BIG QUESTION
Can we have economic growth
and tackle poverty and
sustainability at the same time?
1 1 SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE FOOD
FUTURE?
Image: istockphoto Image: istockphoto
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards
2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
The world needs to close the food gap
69% INCREASE IN FOOD CALORIES TO FEED 9.6 BILLION BY 2050
Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at:
<http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).
The world needs agriculture to support
economic development
(Photo: Oxfam International /Flickr)
24% Greenhouse gas emissions
37% of Earth’s landmass
70% Water withdrawals
The world needs to reduce agriculture’s
impact on the environment
Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards
2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
32% Increased rate of annual yield improvement needed between now and 2050
Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields
due to climate change (3° C warmer world)
Source: World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change.
Washington, DC: World Bank.
Menu for a sustainable food future (preliminary)
Consumption Reduce food loss and waste
Shift to healthier diets
Achieve replacement level fertility
Reduce biofuel demand for food crops
Production Sustainably increase crop yields
Boost yields through attentive crop breeding
Improve soil and water management
Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands
Sustainably increase “livestock” productivity
Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands
Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch
Increase productivity of aquaculture
Production
methods
Improve livestock feeding efficiency
Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use
Manage rice paddies to reduce emissions
Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste—extent, causes and
prevention. Rome: FAO.
Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Reduce food loss and waste along the value chain (Percent of kcal lost or wasted)
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will global warming start to seriously affect yields?
2. Will the food loss and waste movement build momentum?
1 2 WATER AT RISK?
Image: istockphoto
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: WATER IS A
GLOBAL RISK
Water
crises
THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
Aqueduct maps used in
2011 National Intelligence
Estimate on Water
Security requested by
Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton
WATER SCARCITY IS NEWS
Source: United Nations
1.8 B
2014
2018
2022
People in absolute
water scarcity
Tens of millions will
be displaced in arid,
semi-arid regions
2025
1.2 B
WATER SCARCITY WILL INTENSIFY
IN TIMES OF SCARCITY: POOR PEOPLE GET
SQUEEZED
AQUEDUCT WATER RISK ATLAS
- 15,000 catchments
- 12 indicators of water risk
- All open data publicly available
- Current estimates and future projections
WORLD’S LEADING WATER INFORMATION PLATFORM
39% of irrigated cropland in this region is located in areas of water stress concern
Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated Agriculture
39% of irrigated cropland in this region is located in areas of water stress concern
WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE NOW
Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture(IPCC Scenario A1B)
WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 2025
Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants
WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY NOW
would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025
Change in Water Stress by 2025 and Power Plants (IPCC Scenario A1B)
WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY 2025
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will water shortages begin to seriously affect agriculture output and power production?
2. Will governments and companies take aggressive action to reduce water risks?
1 3 THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW WILL
THEY GROW?
Image: istockphoto
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat
CITIES ARE BOOMING
274,000 people added to cities each day for next 30 years
AND URBAN GROWTH IS SPEEDING UP
Time required to reach 2 million:
Rome, Italy 2000 years
Vienna, Austria 400 years
Vancouver, B.C. 115 years
Shenzhen, China 20 years
Image: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company
CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS
65% global GDP growth in major cities
URBAN POOR LACK ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES
Image: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO
BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES
• 75% of GHG emissions
come from cities
• 1.3 million people die
prematurely due to urban
air pollution
$1 trillion Projected cost to coastal
cities without adaptation
BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES
Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon
THIS?
OR THIS?
Image: Flikr/Andreas
CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION?
Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011)
Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 2012
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Which way will cities in Asia grow -- up or out?
Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore
1 4 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?
Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya
Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRI
FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE
50 soccer fields lost each minute
BUT, THERE’S HOPE…
Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration
2bn hectares with opportunities for forest landscape restoration
2bn hectare ready for forest landscape restoration
SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS
1960
2000
Image: WRI
NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRY
Pre-1990s Today
Image: WRI
THE BONN CHALLENGE
Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI
150m hectares under restoration by 2020
Image: Flickr/CIFOR; ource: IUCN
150m RESTORED HECTARES
• $84 billion in economic benefits per year
• 1 gigatons of CO2e stored per year
• Biodiversity, cultural and other benefits
BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS
USA
(15m ha)
BRAZIL - PACTO
(1m ha)
COSTA RICA
(1m ha)
EL SALVADOR
(1m ha)
RWANDA
(2m ha)
A GROWING MOVEMENT
Source: WRI
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will more countries make commitments when they meet in June 2014?
2. Will a new global movement for restoration emerge?
Image:
1 5 SUSTAINABLE PALM
OIL: A NEW ERA?
Image: istockphoto Image: istockphoto
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?
RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
Image: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO
PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP
370% increase in palm oil production in 20 years
PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP
Source: National Geographic 2013
50% of grocery store products contain palm oil
Image: WRI
SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION
Image: WRI
SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION
Image: WRI
SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION
Image: WRI
SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION
A NEW APPROACH
A NEW APPROACH
“There is a strong and rapidly
growing demand for traceable,
deforestation-free palm oil, and we
intend to meet it as a core element
of our growth strategy.”
–Kuok Khoon Hong, CEO of Wilmar
Source: Wilmar Press Release 2013
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
TESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK
SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
Image: Jufri/ Greenpeace
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will better information expedite the shift to sustainable palm oil?
2. Will other industries follow?
Image: istockphoto
Image: istockphoto
6 CHINA: CLEARING
THE AIR?
Image: istockphoto
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?
RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
CHINA:
CLEARING THE
AIR?
Image: Flickr/Leniners
2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION
189 days of high pollution in Beijing in 2013
POPULAR UNREST
Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian
3m mentions of “PM 2.5” on SINA WEIBO, Jan 2013
A DRIVER OF POLLUTION
Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013
50% global coal consumed by China
TAKING ACTION: AIR
Image: WRI; Source: China Daily
$277bn budgeted for anti-pollution measures in the next 5 years
TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COAL
Image: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; source: ChinaFAQs
Ban on New Coal Plants in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou
TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT
Image: Flickr/Bert Van Djik; Source: Xinhua
8 cities in China fined by
provincial government
for air pollution
TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES
Image: Wikimedia: Bloomberg
12 GW solar capacity added in China, the record for any country in a single year
WHAT TO WATCH
1. A tipping point on air pollution?
2. More progress to rein in coal?
3. Will new renewables outpace fossil fuels?
Image: WRI
1 7 UN SUMMIT:
MOMENTUM
ON CLIMATE?
Image: Wikimedia Image: istockphoto
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?
RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
CHINA:
CLEARING THE
AIR?
UN SUMMIT:
MOMENTUM ON
CLIMATE?
NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALS
Source: UNFCCC
30 Years it will take us to use the
other half at current rate
To stay within 2° of warming,
emissions should peak by
2020
200 Years it took us to use half
the world’s carbon budget
THE BRUTAL ARITHMETIC
Source: Rystad Energy, Carbon Tracker
Gt
CO
2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Budget Proven reserves
Oil 22%
Gas 13%
Two thirds of
reserves
“unburnable”
Coal 65%
UNBURNABLE CARBON
EUROPEAN COMMISSION POST-2020 PROPOSAL
40% Reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 below 1990 levels
Image: istockphoto; Source: UCS
27% Renewable energy across EU by 2030
US POST-2020 TARGET
17% emissions reduction by 2020
Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White House
IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRIL
Image: Flickr/Gavin Golden
NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBER
Image: WRI
CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBER
Image: Flickr/UNClimateChange
PATHWAY TO PARIS
Image: Wikimedia
We are at a pivotal moment
2015
Conference on Financing
for Development
UNFCCC COP 21
Hyogo Framework for
Action on disaster risk
reduction
Post-2015
Development
Framework
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will growing evidence spur public pressure?
2. Will a mid-term US strategy emerge?
3. Will the EU continue to lead?
Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland
1
8 A BILLION VOTERS:
WHICH DIRECTION
WILL THEY CHOOSE?
Image: istockphoto
SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?
RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
CHINA:
CLEARING THE
AIR?
UN SUMMIT:
MOMENTUM ON
CLIMATE?
A BILLION
VOTERS: WHICH
DIRECTION WILL
THEY CHOOSE?
A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY
Image: istockphoto
• 3 of the 4 largest democracies
to elect heads of government
• 25% of world’s population
• 40% of the global poor
ELECTIONS: BRAZIL
Image: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA
136m voters in Brazil
ELECTIONS: INDIA
Image: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA
780m voters in India
ELECTIONS: INDONESIA
Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA
160m voters in Indonesia
ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION
Image: Flickr.EEAS
U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS
56% House Republicans deny climate change
65% Senate Republicans deny climate change
Image: istockphoto
ELECTIONS MATTER
Image: Wikipedia
WHAT TO WATCH
1. Which way will these elections go?
2. What will the results tell us about the future of economic growth, poverty and sustainability?
Image: Flickr/Al_Jazeera_English
2 WATER AT RISK?
3 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW
4 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?
5 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?
6 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?
7 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?
8 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?
1 TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE