story tellers: hartford crime analysis
TRANSCRIPT
Hartford Crime AnalysisTEAM: STORY TELLERS
ASHWIN CHADAGAPOOJA SANKHE
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Table of Contents
Project Objectives
Methodology
Insights
Scope
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Crime has patterns and can be analysed Predicting those patterns based on the geographical characteristics and time
will help us in segregating crime zones This makes people aware of the neighborhood
Data tells us about Police incidents in
Hartford area
A pattern can be identified for a region and for a time period
Forecasting the crime rate for
Hartford
Project Objective3
Chose the publicly available ‘Police Record for Hartford’ data set Data available is from January 2005 till October 2015 Data consists of different categories of crimes across various neighbourhood
within Hartford Steps taken
Built a dynamic dashboard Built a model which forecasts the drug offenses
Methodology4
Methodology
Converted API data from JSON format into table format by using tools available
in Alteryx US ZIP code data was mapped with the dynamic data to get the data in spatial
format Dynamic data from API was used to create live dashboard in Tableau For forecasting, used the subset(drug offenses) of the complete data Converted categorical variables into continuous to forecast
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Methodology6
Methodology7
Insights
From 2010, we see a drastic drop
in the drug offenses in Hartford From 2010, overall crime rate has
been reduced ‘Frog Hollow’ is the most impacted
region (Drug related crimes) Further insights can be interpreted
though live dashboard
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Methodology
Training Data – 2005 to 2013 Hold Out Data – Year 2014 Built 2 ARIMA models and 3 ETS
models Chose the model which gave us
the best RMSE & ME value Forecasted 3 month’s crime rate
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Insights10
Insights11
Scope
We can built models for different categories of crime Based on crime rate, we can predict the valuation of a property If we have the right infrastructure we can fetch the entire API data and will
be able to project it on live dashboard Based on the forecast, better resource management is possible
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Appendix
References
https://public.tableau.com/profile/publish/Hartford_crime/Dashboard1#!/
publish-confirm https://data.hartford.gov/Public-Safety/Police-Incidents-01012005-to-
Current/889t-nwfu https://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/geo/shapefiles/index.php