strategic approach for modernization in the thailandtsba.or.th/download/(final) takino strategic...

Strategic Approach forShipping ModernizationIn the Thailand

JETRO SingaporeCAJSJapan Marine Science Inc.

FEB. 20111

Ⅰ： Situation Summary Current Status and Issues

Ⅱ： Key Elements for the developmentof Shipping Industry

Ⅲ： Strategy for Shipping DevelopmentIV： Core Project

‐ Development of International Shipping‐Development of Coastal Shipping andShipbuilding

2

8.18.18.28.28.38.38.48.48.58.58.68.6

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

2004 2005 2006e 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f

%Billion US$

Transport & Communication Ratio per GDP

Nominal GDPTransport & CommRatio（％）

3

0% 50% 100%

Land

Sea

Rail

Air

International Transport Mode(M.Ton Base)

0% 50% 100%

Land

Sea

Water

Rail

Air

Domestic Transport Mode(M.Ton base)

Source:Marine Department 4

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Land

Rail

Sea/Water

Air

Pipeline

Domestic Transport Mode(Ton-Km)

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

<5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 >=30Dry Cargo 5 3 15 16 60 71 88Liquid Cargo 14 4 37 15 36 50 65

Marine Department 2010 6

Country GRTx1,000(average)

Nos.

1 Panama 165,385(21,257)

7,780

2 Liberia 74,091(29,530)

2,509

3 H.K. 39,634(25,374)

1,562

16 Japan 12,989(2,139)

6,071

38 Thailand 2,714(2,979)

911

World 757,922(7,266)

104,305

GRT & Nos. of ship in 2009 LRS Data

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

GRT (A

verage

)

GRT x 1,00

0 & N

os.

GRT

Nos.

GRTAverage

7

Type Age GRT(Average)

DWT(Average)

Container 16 6,038 4,209

Bulk Carrier 20 6.038 4,209

General Cargo

28 10,679 7,321

Tanker 24 3,167 2,059

Others 30 2,270 1,929

Size and age of Thai Registered Ship (Marine Dept.2008)

8

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0‐4 5‐9 10‐14 15‐19 20‐24 >25

Composition of Tanker by Nos.LRS Statistics 2008

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0‐4 5‐9 10‐14 15‐19 20‐24 >25

Composition of Tanker by GRTLRS Statistics 2008

Example: Trend of tanker by age in the world

9

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

0 ‐ 9 10 ‐ 14 15 ‐ 19 20 ‐24

25 ‐29

30 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 39 40 ‐

Composition of Thai tanker by DWT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 ‐ 9 10 ‐ 14 15 ‐ 19 20 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 29 30 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 39 40 ‐

6

11

24

49

43

40

17 17

No.of Ship

Composition of Thai tanker by Nos.

Example: Trend of tanker by age in the Thailand (Marine Department 2010)

10

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

New Building 606 969 1,682 3,811 5,620 6,200 6,830 7,150

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Million Bah

t

New Building Revenue

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f

Repair 1,157 1,761 2,210 2,014 3,560 3,900 3,470 3,650 4,180

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Million Bah

t

Repair Revenue

Thai Shipbuilding Statistic (TSRA 2010)

11

Nos & GRT of New building 2008 (LRS)

Nos. & GRT of New building in the world 2008 (LRS)

Rank Shipyard Nos. GRT

1 China 1,164 22,538,098(19,363)

2 Japan 630 19,028,251(30,204)

3 S. Korea 531 29,111,141(54,823)

4 Malaysia 244 123,693(507)

5 Indonesia 241 231,726(962)

29 Thailand 10 9.747(975)

Rank Flag Nos. GRT

1 Panama 500 17,239,664(34,459)

2 Singapore 324 3,897,769(12,030)

3 Indonesia 242 241,143996)

4 Liberia 240 9,968,972(41,537)

5 Hong Kong 183 6,642,77636,299)

35 Thailand 22 25,538(1,161)

12

Rank Country of shipbuilder

No. of ship built by the

countryA

No. of Registered

shipB B/A=

１ Japan 27,072 6,071 0.22２ USA 9,834 6,883 0.70３ China 7,989 4,113 0.5210 Indonesia 2,456 5,606 2.2814 Malaysia 1,903 1,326 0.6716 Singapore 1,835 2,528 1.3824 Vietnam 1,059 1,382 1.3131 Philippines 533 1,896 3.5646 Thailand 163 911 5.58

Total in the world 104,30513

Small Scale Shipping Old and Obsolete Ship Low reliance on Sea/Water transportation Small Scale Shipbuilding

Focal Points to be improved;

Modernization of Thai Fleets (Ships)

“How to replace the fleet consisting of old, obsolete, and various sizes/types of ships with brand new, standardizedand appropriate ships built in Thailand.”

14

Key Elements Issues

1. Financial Resources Interest rate, loan security and depreciation

2. Economic Viability Profitability

3. Technical Capacity/Empiricalknowledge

Technology, empirical knowledge and engineering capacity required for shipping and shipbuilding

4. Administrative Capacity Safety standards (ISM code,etc)

5. Human Resources Supervision of shipping, Shipbuilding Engineering, Maritime administration required

15

Policy of Marine DepartmentNational Maritime Promotion Program1) Expanding shipping ratios of Thai-registered ships2) Promoting coastal and river transport3) Developing the ports4) Promoting shipbuilding industry5) Enhancing the knowledge and skills of seamen6) Developing human resources specialized in international physical

distribution

Policy of Ministry of Industry1) Shipbuilding complex/Industrial Park2) Enhancing constructing and repairing abilities and capacities:

construction and repairing of 20,000 DWT ships3) Financial assistance4) Education for human resources specialized in Shipbuilding5) Tax policies including investment.

16

Core Project Budget Organization

International Shipping Development Program

MOFEXIM BANK

Marine DepartmentMOF

Tanker Modernization Program for Development of Coastal Shipping and Shipbuilding

Marine DepartmentMinistry of IndustryMOF

Core Projects are vital to achieve the strategy for shipping and shipbuilding development

17

Core Projects are vital to achieve the strategy for shipping and shipbuilding development

Insufficient environment for ship

investment

Accumulation of non‐economical &

non‐safe ship

Paradigm Shift

Procurement of old and cheap

ship

Appropriate Ship Finance

Promotion of Procurement competitive ship

Maintain quality (ship asset) and stable business profit

Reinvest to more competitive ship

18

Object of the Program1. Promotion of modernization of shipping 2. Security of energy transportation3. Development of shipbuilding and related industry

Key for implementation of the Program1. Finance Scheme2. Building Scheme3. Cooperation between shipping and shipbuilding


19

Oil Consumption in Thailand

33,170,000 KL/Year(91,000 KL/day)

Transport Mode by Tanker

Approx. 55%

Estimated Oil Volume carried by Tanker

18,243,000 KL/Year(50,000 KL/day)

Status of Oil Transportation


20

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

M. L

itre

Sales of Petro Product except LPG


21


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

30019

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

08

No. of S

hip

DWT

Liquid Cargo Vessel in ThailandDWTNo. of Vessel

22


23

Charter Rate ofDomestic Black Oil Tanker


0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Inde

x

Internatioanl Tanker Freight Index (LRS)

ＶＬＣＣ

Suezmax

Aframax

Handy

Clean

Freight Fluctuation of International and domestic tanker

24


BankShipping Company

To secure Ship Asset, Safety and Cost Management by ship management.Ship Management System to be considered as a security for finance.

Shipyard

Ship Management Company

25

Implementing Scheme


Technical Consultant

Shipyard(Leader)

Shipping Company

Shipping Company

Steering CommitteeMOT(MD) / MOI / MOF

Shipyard C

Shipyard B

Shipyard A

26

DWT

< 999 1,000 -1,999

2,000 -2,999

3,000 -3,999

4,000 -4,999

5,000 -9,999

10,000 -49,999

>50,000

Age

0 - 9 1 2 1 2 610 - 14 9 2 1115 - 19 0 5 8 1 3 2 2 3 2420 - 24 1 22 14 2 1 7 2 4925 - 29 1 12 6 10 8 6 4330 - 34 2 18 14 2 3 1 4035 - 39 6 7 1 1 2 17

40 - 1 6 7 2 1 1714 69 59 20 18 20 2 5 207


Current status of Thailand registered tanker

27

Age Average DWT

0 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 24 2,743 25 - 29 3,474 30 - 34 2,218 35 - 39 2,604

40 - 2,228 Average DWT 2,777

DWT

Age < 9991,000

-1,999

2,000 -

2,999

3,000 -

3,999Nos.

20 - 24 1 22 14 2 3925 - 29 1 12 6 10 2930 - 34 2 18 14 2 3635 - 39 6 7 1 14

40 - 1 6 7 2 16Nos. 5 64 48 17 134


Tanker to be replaced according to Single hull tanker Phase‐out Regulation 2015

Note : Average DWT excludes tankers of 30,000DWT or more 28

PTT Oil Terminal at Surat Thani

Limitation for Tanker size

Length for oil tanker: 77mWater Depth

High tide : 10.5mLow tide : 5.0m

Width of river : 150mSafety draft : 4.5mCannel Length : 22km


29

Shell, Exxon, Chevron700,000KL/Year

Deployment to Surat ThaniFor PTT : 4 tankersFor Shell/Exxon/Shevron

: 4 tankers

No. of Voyage per year2,000KL tanker : Apprx. 870

200

400

600

800

1000

Vol.(M.Litre)

PTT OIL at Surat ThaniDistribution Volume

(M.Litre) / Year


30

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

0.25 0.30 0.35

IRR (%

)

Freight TB/Liter

IRR (Ship 6 Mil.Yen)

1.00%

2.00%

4.00%

‐2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

0.25 0.30 0.35

IRR (%

)Freight TB/Litre

IRR (Ship 8 Mil.Yen)

1.00%2.00%4.00%


31

‐4.00%‐2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%

600,000 800,000 100,000

IRR (%

)

Ship Price (J.Yen x1,000)

IRR (Interest 2% 10 yrs)

0.350.300.25


32


To implement tanker modernization program for development of coastal shipping and shipbuilding industry,‐ Financial and administrative support by Government‐ Long term charter contract by Cargo Owner‐ Building competitive ship‐Maintain ship asset, high quality and safety operation

33

Von VoyageThank you

JETRO SingaporeCAJS

Japan Marine Science Inc.

FEB. 201134

strategic approach for modernization in the thailandtsba.or.th/download/(final) takino strategic...

Documents