strategic thinking constructs

7/27/2019 Strategic Thinking Constructs

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STRATEGIC THINKING CONSTRUCTS

Dr Colin Benjamin OAM © 2012

INTRODUCTION

The work shop is designed to provide clarit a!o"t the lang"age o# social

incl"sion and social polic #orm"lation #or practitioners seeking to e##icientl$

e##ectivel and e##"lgentl appl processes o# strategic thinking to achieve

environmental changes% This set o# strategic thinking constr"cts provides a

plat#orm #or the design and constr"ction o# innovative$ creative and

entreprene"rial approaches to social polic o!jectives incl"ding social

development$ social incl"sion$ social j"stice and social responsi!ilities%

CONTENTS

&20o Thinking and 'econstr"cting 'ealities

O"r (trategic Thinking )ramework

*re#erred and Desired O"tcomes

T"r!"lence in the +nvironment

Bridging the ,aps

Managing Change and Constr"cting (ocial *olicies

The -ang"age o# (ocial .ncl"sion



STRATEGIC THINKING CONSTRUCTS

The Crisis Response Lab provides a 360degree context that seeks to position

Greenpeace to respond to crises, pursuing an experimental approach to innovative

activities in unfamiliar circumstances !t "ill experiment "ith and get read# to drive

$non%linear change& 'ur (trategic Thinking )orkshop seeks to provide a *+0degree

level of consciousness that explores and enlivens the full double%hemisphere capacit#

of our minds to think be#ond the possible to reconstruct preferred and desired futures

720O THINKING

r (imon Latham, in The Joy of Sin, musters evidence from ps#cholog# experiments

b# researchers "orld"ide to argue that the seven deadl# sins -lust, glutton#, greed,

sloth, "rath, env# and pride. are not necessaril# bad (imon sa#s //nder certain

circumstances these things can bring about a range of benefits, including making one

happier, smarter, more creative and increasing pro%social behaviour/

1d"ard e 2ono sa#s $Creativit# involves breaking out of established patterns in

order to look at things in a different "a#& 1d"ard also points out that &an expert is

someone "ho has succeeded in making decisions and udgements simpler through

kno"ing "hat to pa# attention to and "hat to ignore& 1xpanding our sphere of

influence on behalf of an inarticulate planet re4uires ever#one to learn ho" to

generate better outcomes

5lbert 1instein sa#s $)e cannot solve our problems "ith the same thinking "e used

"hen "e created them& 5lbert also said $no problem can be solved from the same

level of consciousness that created it& 'ur problem is to learn ho" to think globall#,

transcend trends and "alk back"ards from preferred and desired futures To do this

"e need to break out of the circle of certaint# and generate a bubble of hope that the

present can be set free to soar

RECONSTRUCTING REALITIES

)hen "e attempt to consider the unimaginable changes that can occur in the period

after a crisis "e are extrapolating a future that modifies our past This is inherentl# an

extension of linear thinking into post%hoc rationalisation of the difficulties that "ere

experienced in gaining support for change before the accident of histor#

To escape the inherent limitations of uncertaint# and the impossibilit# of kno"ing

"hat has #et to be made certain "e need to focus upon the process of in4uir#,

communication, decision making Learning to be in the best position to take informed

action establishes the ph#sical, mental and moral dimensions of strategic thinking

capacit#

'ur starting point is the ageless thinking of (un Tu -(un 7i8 The Art of War . "ho

stated $The quality of decision is like the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables

it to strike and destroy its victim” 5daptation means not clinging to fixed methods,

but changing appropriatel# according to events, acting as is suitable This re4uires a

four dimensional perspective that emphasies the need to full# understand the external

environment in "hich #ou9and #our adversaries9operate and the changingtemporal context in "hich decisions are made This anal#sis formed the core of the



strategic thinking approach of 5merican 5irforce Colonel :ohn 2o#d and his concept

of the '%'%%5 loop

2o#d;s concept of destruction and creation builds up a four%step prescription to guide

the prosecution of strategic operations to s"ift, ultimate victor# 2o#d called this

prescription the '%'%%5 loop 5nd in the same "a# that (un Tu/s principles areapplicable to business operations, so too is 2o#d/s '%'%%5 loop <oreover, the '%

'%%5 loop provides highl# focused guidance for effectivel# appl#ing (un Tu;s 5rt

of )ar principles cited above

$'%'%%5& is an acron#m that stands for 'bserve, 'rient, ecide, and 5ct These are

se4uential activities that guide leaders to effective decisions The act step that

culminates this process ultimatel# produces changes in the environment that merit a

ne", subse4uent round of observations, follo"ed b# a second c#cle of orientation,

decision, and action

2o#d suggested that individuals or groups that could c#cle through these four stepsfaster than their adversaries had a tactical advantage To the extent that the# could

execute the c#cle t"o or more times faster than their opponents could complete one,

the# "ould actuall# increase the opposition/s confusion about the competitive

situation to such a degree that the opponent/s efforts might totall# collapse

O!serve

'bservation, the first step in the '%'%%5 loop, is a search for information The

information that should be sought is, first and foremost, the nature of unfolding

circumstances%the tactical situation 'nl# slightl# less urgent is "hat 2o#d called

$outside information& This could include the environment= the behaviour and

tendencies of oneself and one/s opponents= the ph#sical, mental, and moral situation=

and potential

allies and other opponents> !t must be emphasied that this is not a passive step%it

re4uires a concerted, active effort to seek out all the information possible, b#

"hatever means available

Orient

'rient is the $big '& in the '%'%%5 loop, as #ou can see from the complexit# of that

part of the illustration above ?otice that there are three arro"s leading out of the

orient block, but onl# one leading in, reinforcing the notion that our orientation to the

"orld shapes the decisions "e make, the actions "e take, and "hat "e choose toobserve%"hat "e look for%in the "orld around us

To the extent that a tactician or strategist is able to s#nthesie a more accurate picture

of realit# than his or her opponent, the 4ualit# of decisions and the effectiveness of

actions improve, sometimes dramaticall# To the extent that the tactician@strategist can

den# that accurate picture to the adversar#, the 4ualit# of the opponent/s decisions and

the effectiveness of his actions deteriorate 2o#d referred to this anal#sis%and%

s#nthesis process as $man#%sided, implicit cross%referencing& The faster "e can

orient ourselves, the greater the congruence "ith obective realit# that "e can make

our orientation, the better and more effective our observations, decisions, and actions

"ill be



Decide

!n concept, this is an explicit step, meaning a discrete, conscious activit# follo"ing

hard on orientation Ao"ever, 2o#d also realied that intuitive understanding of the

situation and one/s o"n capabilities -the fingerspitengefuhl discussed in our first ̈installment. makes the decision step implicit, rather than explicit This is a highl#

desirable situation, because it speeds the c#cle time of the '%'%%5 loop 5s earl# asthe B*th centur#, the 4uintessential samurai, <usashi, emphasied the need to practice

incessantl# until this fingerspitengefuhl -not <usashi/s "ord, obviousl#. made the ̈s"ord an extension of the "arrior/s arm and action instinctive, "ithout having to think

about it !n other "ords, implicit decision and action

Act

The act step is largel# self%evident 5ction is the "hole reason for going through the

'%'% steps in the first place 2ut it/s crucial to keep in mind that the ver# action "e

attempt to execute "ill, itself, influence the environment in "hich "e act The

environment "ill change, possibl# onl# slightl#, but more likel# dramaticall# This

change in the $pla#ing field& renders our orientation, or "orldvie", invalid to somedegree8 it introduces a mismatch bet"een realit# and our perception of it The 4uicker

"e realie that this mismatch is developing, the sooner "e can adust our orientation

to more closel# approximate the ne" realit# and act again 5nd this is the c#clic

nature of the '%

(11 Operationalizing Sun Tzu : The O-O-D-A Loop - Goal Systems ... www.goalsys.com/.../documents/Part-4-OperationalizingSun -Tzu .pdf

2o#d sees grand strateg# as a 4uest to isolate #our enem#/s -a nation%state or a global

terrorist net"ork. thinking processes from connections to the external@reference

environment This process of isolation is essentiall# the imposition of insanit# on a

group b# deconstructing their rules of engagement and reconstructing their realities

The d#namic of 2o#d/s grand strateg# is to isolate the enem# across three essential

vectors -ph#sical, mental, and moral., "hile at the same time improving our

connectivit# across those same vectors 2o#d sa#s that

• *hsical isolation is accomplished b# severing communications both to the

outside "orld -ie allies. and internal audiences -ie bet"een branches of

command and bet"een the command organisation and its supporters.

• Mental isolation is done through the introduction of ambiguous information,

novel situations, and b# operating at a tempo an enem# cannot keep up "ith• Moral isolation is achieved "hen an enem# improves its "ell being at the

expense of others -allies. or violates rules of behaviour the# profess to uphold

-standards of conduct. <oral rules are a ver# important reference point in

times of uncertaint#

(++ Boyd's OODA Loop - March 12, 2006

www.au.af.mil/au/awc/.../ boyd /osinga_ boyd conf07_copyright2007.p..

http://www.goalsys.com/systemsthinking/documents/Part-4-OperationalizingSun-Tzu.pdf





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OUR STRATEGIC THINKING FRAMEWORK

)e attempt to reframe and reformulate strategic thinking capacit# as an integrative

ph#sical, mental and moral process that builds upon a basic direction to"ards seeking

one of four patterns of thought The first t"o are most commonl# applied to strategic

planning D inductive thinking and deductive thinking associated "ith task andtransactional goals The latter t"o are associated "ith transductive thinking and

abductive thinking associated "ith change and transformational goals

.nd"ctive

!nductive reasoning is the process of coming up "ith a conclusion based on a series of

events that repeat 5n example "ould be to push a light s"itch up turns on the light

and pushing it do"n turns the light off !f #ou do this over and over, sa# B000 times,

#ou could conclude that the light goes on "hen the s"itch is up and it is off "hen the

s"itch is do"n nfortunatel#, the conclusion ma# not al"a#s be true because other

circumstances ma# cause the light to not go on "hen the s"itch is up The light ma#

burn out, the electricit# goes off, etc.

Ded"ctive

eductive reasoning is the process of coming up "ith a conclusion based on facts that

have alread# been sho"n to be true Aence, #our conclusion "ill al"a#s be true The

facts that can be used to prove #our conclusion deductivel# ma# come from accepted

definitions, postulates or axioms, or previousl# proved theorems !f #ou are taking

geometr#, proofs re4uires deductive reasoning Therefore, it is imperative that #ou

kno" #our definitions, postulates and theorems

Transd"ctiveTransductive reasoning builds upon experienced prior learningm analogies and

metaphors to establish ne" patterns of operation dra"ing upon conclusions about a

ne" situation that resembles or has common core elements that offer preferred and

desired outcomes !n the case of machine learning this transductive process dra"s

conclusions about ne" data from previous data through transposition or conversion of

elements and "ithout constructing a model or a series of prior decision rules

A!d"ctive

5bductive reasoning is a form of logical inference that goes from data description of

something to a h#pothesis that accounts for the reliable data and seeks to explain

relevant evidence The term "as first introduced b# the 5merican philosopher Charles(anders Eeirce -BF3DBBH. as IguessingI Eeirce argues that good abductive

reasoning from to ! involves not simpl# a determination that, eg, ! is sufficient

for , but also that ! is among the most economical explanations for (implification

and econom# are "hat call for the /leap/ of abduction .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Sanders_Peirce


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor







PREFERRED AND DESIRED OUTCOMES

George Jell# introduces a futures orientation to ever#da# decision%making% Krom his

point of vie" ever#one is involved in seeking to predict and control the flo" of events

in "hich the# are involved 1ach person has expectations, anticipations, h#potheses totest and experiments to conduct Jell# came to see the person as a scientist "ho

through a series of successive approximations seeks to test his constructions in a

piecemeal fashion in order to establish their predictive efficienc#

Krom this point of vie", the c#cle of experimentation begins "ith an action "hich is

seen as a probe into realit# designed to test the validit# of the personal h#pothesis or

construct "hich the person has previousl# placed upon the "orld, and "ith "hich he

is no" experimenting The c#cle of experimentation therefore ends "ith an

experimental outcome or result that "ill serve to validate or invalidate the

anticipations "hich the action%probe "as designed to test Auman behaviour is not

seen as a problem "hich needs to be controlled, but rather is construed as our maininstrument of in4uir#

nder this rubric, strategic thinking is a search for one of four fundamental

obectives8

More o# the (ame /MO(

The first strategic intent is to maintain a high level of control over outcomes through

consistenc# and applications of prior learning to repeat previousl# successful patterns

This is a classic application of linear thinking that assumes that the environment is

constant and that efficient application of kno"n%kno"ns offers the best path to

success

More and Better /MB

The second form of strategic intent seeks to modif# previous best practice b#

improving elements that have become predictable or changing approaches that offer

prospects of delivering more effective applications of kno"ledge, skills and aptitudes

to tackle the kno"n%unkno"ns in changing environments

(omething Di##erent /(D

The third form of strategic intent introduces different combinations of prior practice to

address unkno"n%kno"n experiences and events b# attempting to alter the extent of predictable responses This re4uires an effulgent combination of flexibilit#,

adaptiveness and responsiveness to the actions of alternative decision%makers to seek

to gain a competitive advantage through deliver# of unexpected interventions in the

environment

(omething 3er Di##erent /(3D

The final form of strategic intent re4uires active experimentation "ith disruptive

innovative, creative and entrepreneurial constructs that change expectations and take

steps that break "ith traditions and prior expectations to achieve outstanding results

This involves a search for differences and altered perceptions of the art of the

possible



TURBULENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENT

The choice amongst these alternative path"a#s is shaped b# the strength of opposing

forces and the level of turbulence in the environment in "hich decisions are being

made !gor 5nsoff "rote his strategic management s#stems around the idea of

economic%turbulence, and the need for alignment bet"een organisational capabilities

and the level of economic%turbulence faced b# the business The driver -of change. is

environmental turbulence D a uni4ue feature of 5nsoff;s thinking, and defined in

terms of of environment%complexit#, its speed of change relative to possible speed of

-organisational. response, and the futures visabilit# and predictabilit#

There are five levels of turbulence that determine re4uirements for strategic thinking

'epetitive

5t Level 'ne Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are stable and based on precedents 'rganisational responses are stabilit# seeking and reect change

The strategic response is generall# to enhance surveillance The usual capabilit# is

audit and situational anal#ses predicated on repetition of prior patterns of behaviour

+4panding

5t Level T"o Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are reactive

and based on experience 'rganisational responses are efficienc# seeking and adapt to

change The strategic response is generall# to diversif# risks The usual capabilit# is

increased flexibilit# predicated on forecasts of slo" incremental environmental

changes

Changing

5t Level Three Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are

anticipator# and based on extrapolation 'rganisational responses are market driven

and seek familiar change The strategic response is generall# to create a response The

usual capabilit# is to ac4uire resources and technolog# predicated on forecasts of

rapid incremental environmental changes

Discontin"o"s

5t Level Kour Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are

entrepreneurial and based on opportunit# 'rganisational responses are environment

driven and seek related change The strategic response is generall# to launch a highrisk response The usual capabilit# is to extend minimum capabilit# and expand

rapidl# predicated on discontinuous but predictable environmental changes

("rprise#"l

5t Level Kive Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are novel,

creative and based on creativit# 'rganisational responses are environment creating

and seek novel change The strategic response is generall# to launch a catch%up

response The usual capabilit# is defensive reconstruction and crash capabilit#

expansion based on discontinuous and partiall# predictable environmental changes



BRIDGING THE GAPS eveloping a polic# narrative that frames decisions about future courses of action byfinding and developing unique opportunities to generate preferredand desired futures relies upon a capacity to communicate requiredchanges in emerging and/ or competitive environments. The

capacity to define, communicate and implement steps to bridge thegaps between current and preferred future states develops adistinctive pathway to progress.

3ision

5 vision statement defines the rationale for action in terms of a strategic intent to

establish "hat is the preferred and desired future for those engaged in a venture or

enterprise and clarif# the emerging external situation that is being generated

Mission

5 mission statement sets out purposes and primar# commitments !ts prime functionis internal D to define the ke# measure or measures of the organiation/s success D and

its prime audience is the leadership team and stakeholders "ho are committed to the

vision

,oals

The statement of goals for an organisation or a campaign set out the targets and

results that are sought from the application of relationships, resources, information,

decision making and evaluation efforts directed to"ards achievement of actionable

purposes

O!jectivesThe statement of obectives specif# succinct, time limited and defined measures of

progress that provide decision makers "ith performance benchmarks and tangible

outcomes

Activities

5 statement of activities is a list or menu of specific deeds, actions, functions, or

spheres of action that must be undertaken to achieve results that are sought for each

obective in order to get preferred and desired outcomes

Tasks

1ach task sets out a ob that must be done as part of application of effort to reach anobective or to perform a dut# that has a short%term responsibilit# "ithin a "orks

program

'oles

5 register of roles sets out the part or position that individuals or units of an

organisation accept as determining anticipated and expected behaviours re4uired to

accomplish tasks

'esponsi!ilities

Roles suppl# the authorit# to maintain relationships bet"een persons or units assigned

to carr# out tasks, allocate resources to facilitate task achievement, communicate

re4uired information about the relationship "ith the vision, mission, goals and

obectives and take decisions re4uired to ensure programme or proect completion



"ithin specified times



MANAGING AND EMPOWERING CHANGE

Change management entails thoughtful planning and sensitive implementation, and

above all, consultation "ith, and involvement of, the people affected b# the changes

5chieving preferred and desired changes in patterns of behaviour and performance

re4uires people to understand ho" social policies "ill be different The# need toappreciate and ideall# accept "hat "ill be the impact on their patterns of behaviour

The ke#s to successful management of change rel# upon the empo"erment of those

that support the need for change and the active engagement of those that are #et to

share the vision, mission, goals and obectives of those committed to making those

changes Connie 2enn argued that people need po"er over four crucial areas in their

lives8 resources, information, decision%making and relationships To empo"er people

to make significant change it is also vital to change current expectations and build the

esteem of those that are re4uired to modif# their prior patterns of behaviour

*ower over 'elationships /5*6

The first step in managing change is to identif# the enduring patterns of relationships

and net"orks of friends and associates that are linked to current beliefs and

behaviours This establishes the social infrastructure re4uired to undertake the

processes of in4uir#, communication, deciding and implementing path"a#s from

"here people are no" to "here the# need to be if change is to be adopted and

consolidated

*ower over 'eso"rces /5'6

The next step to"ards effective management of change re4uires consideration of costs

and benefits of changes to o"nership and distribution of resources This clarifiesemotional and financial resources that need to be committed to restructured operations

and investments in gro"th to fund and enable capital infrastructure that underpins the

development of ne" enterprise and strategic operations

*ower over .n#ormation /5.6

The intervening and continuing step to"ards viable and sustainable change relies

upon access to data, kno"ledge, understanding, insight and effective communication

to ensure current and constructive changes are maintained This builds the channels

of access to media and momentum for challenging dimensions for continuing change

*ower over Decision7making /5D6The next step is to construct a forum for for"ard observation, orientation, decision%

making and action that shapes command and control over directions for choice and

sets out the nature and authorit# of re4uired change This determines the selection of a

course of action among several alternative scenarios leading to a finite policy, practice or direction for

change.

*ower over +4pectations and +steem /5+6

The final step is to manage expectations about the consolidation and

institutionalisation of the changes that are introduced and ensure the good"ill and

esteem of those that stand to benefit from the adoption of ne" directions and patterns

of authorit#



THE LANGUAGE OF SOCIAL INCLUSION

Taking steps be#ond the beaten path"a# re4uires earl# attention to the needs, "ants,

hopes and expectations of those that support re4uired changes as much as establishing

a deep and meaningful appreciation of the perspectives that still need to come on

board To build this platform of understanding it is essential to disaggregate theaudiences that must become engaged in the processes of change

This means that the case for change must address the needs of different segments of

the communities of interest !t is vitall# important to keep in mind a number of

elements8

B.denti#ia!ilit7 a clear label for the group or section of the communit#

+("!stantia!ilit D a realistic scale to ustif# engaging that communit#

3Accessa!ilit % ease of access to address the various communities of interest

H'esponsiveness D proportion of feedfor"ard and feedback capacit# of the

audiences

(ta!ilit D continuit# and time scales for capacit# to gain needed support for change

6 Actiona!ilit D capacit# to encourage and engage supporters in consolidating

changes

To this end it is valuable to understand the similarities bet"een different segments of

the communit# that are likel# to endorse the preferred and desired changes as "ell as

the differences that make a difference bet"een those "ho need to be encouraged to

change their minds and become earl# adopters of the proposed changes The most

fundamental orientation is that of <aslo";s Aierarch# of ?eeds from phsiological

and sa#et needs$ love and !elonging$ to esteem and sel#7act"alisation%

'ther ke# characteristics that must be monitored in the mapping of support and

opposition to change include Geert Aofstede;s analses of $Culture;s Conse4uences8

1. Individ!"i#$ V# C%""&'(ivi#$ ) *I+ %,i&n(!(i%n v&,## +WE+ %,i&n(!(i%n

2. P%-&, Di#(!n'& !nd A(%,i(/ ) *US+ %,i&n(!(i%n v&,## *THEM+

%,i&n(!(i%n. Un'&,(!in(/ A''&(!n'&Av%id!n'& ) RISK (!3in4 v&,## RISK !v%idin4

5&!vi%,

6. T&$%,!" S&n#i(ivi(/ ) PAST PRESENT %, FUTURES

%,i&n(!(i%n#

(11 C'L'RGR! E')1R E'!?T ER1(1?T5T!'? 5TT5CA1



REFERENCES

The "ind #f The Strategist$ The 5rt of :apanese 2usiness

Jenichi 'hmae -B.

%hanging the &ules of the 'ame8 (uccessful latecomers, To#ota in

1urope

Erofessor Jauo !chio and George RMdler, Research 5ssociate

-?ovember, +006.

strategic thinking constructs

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