strategies for adapting to climate change in rural ssa: targeting the poor doug merrey fanrpan...
TRANSCRIPT
Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural SSA: Targeting the
PoorDoug Merrey
FANRPAN Regional Dialogue
2 September 2008, Lilongwe, Malawi
Outline
Overview (adapted from Jerry Nelson, IFPRI)Climate change and variability—impacts on the poorAdaptation strategiesProject goals
Outcome of Kickoff Workshop Roles of FANRPAN and ASARECA Conclusions
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Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change & VariabilityChange & Variability
Rich countries emit majority of GHGs Rich countries emit majority of GHGs
Poor countries are more vulnerablePoor countries are more vulnerable
Geography (hotter, less rain, more variation)Geography (hotter, less rain, more variation)
Greater dependence on agriculture and natural resourcesGreater dependence on agriculture and natural resources
Limited infrastructure and low-input agricultureLimited infrastructure and low-input agriculture
Low income, poverty and malnutritionLow income, poverty and malnutrition
Inadequate complementary services, like health and Inadequate complementary services, like health and educationeducation
Weak institutionsWeak institutions
Thus, lower adaptive capacity (less resilience)Thus, lower adaptive capacity (less resilience)
Location matters!Location matters!
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Much Adaptation Policy is Extension Much Adaptation Policy is Extension of Good Development Policyof Good Development Policy
Promote growth and diversificationPromote growth and diversification
Invest in research and development, Invest in research and development, education and healtheducation and health
Improve international trade systemImprove international trade system
Enhance resilience to disasters and Enhance resilience to disasters and improving disaster managementimproving disaster management
Promote risk-sharing, including social Promote risk-sharing, including social safety nets, weather insurancesafety nets, weather insurance
Types of AdaptationTypes of Adaptation Autonomous or spontaneous adaptationsAutonomous or spontaneous adaptations
Response to observed/anticipated climate Response to observed/anticipated climate change without intervention by a public agency change without intervention by a public agency
Initiatives by private actors rather than Initiatives by private actors rather than governments, triggered by market or welfare governments, triggered by market or welfare changes induced by actual or anticipated climate changes induced by actual or anticipated climate changechange
Policy-driven or planned adaptation Policy-driven or planned adaptation Proactive responseProactive response
Result of deliberate policy decision on the part of Result of deliberate policy decision on the part of public agenciespublic agencies
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Adaptation Responses and IssuesAdaptation Responses and Issues
TypeType of of responseresponse AutonomousAutonomous Policy-drivenPolicy-driven
Short runShort run• Crop choice, crop area, Crop choice, crop area,
planting datesplanting dates• Risk-pooling insuranceRisk-pooling insurance
• Improved forecastingImproved forecasting• Policy reformPolicy reform• Technology Technology
disseminationdissemination
Long runLong run
• Private investment (on-farm Private investment (on-farm irrigation)irrigation)
• Private crop researchPrivate crop research• RelocationRelocation
• Public investment Public investment (water storage, roads, (water storage, roads, info infrastructure)info infrastructure)
• Public crop researchPublic crop research
IssuesIssues• Adaptive capacity of poorAdaptive capacity of poor• Social safety netsSocial safety nets
• Uncertain returns to Uncertain returns to investmentinvestment
• TargetingTargeting
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Effective Adaptation Policy StrategiesEffective Adaptation Policy Strategies Must go beyond good development policy to explicitly target Must go beyond good development policy to explicitly target
the impacts of climate change, particularly on the poorthe impacts of climate change, particularly on the poor
Requires Requires spatiallyspatially targeted adaptation targeted adaptation
Market signals Market signals
essential factor in determining the responses to a essential factor in determining the responses to a
changing environmentchanging environment
but involves potentially expensive time lags and overlooks but involves potentially expensive time lags and overlooks
equity equity
Climate change adaptation must therefore be proactive, not Climate change adaptation must therefore be proactive, not
merely reactivemerely reactive
Where do the global climate models agree Where do the global climate models agree (yellow/green) and disagree (blue/red)(yellow/green) and disagree (blue/red)
Low emissions scenario
High agreement southern & eastern Africa
Change in Precipitation 2000 - 2050 Change in Precipitation 2000 - 2050 (mm/month) June, (mm/month) June, highhigh emissions scenario emissions scenario
Black – no change
Yellow – decrease in mean
Blue/green – increase in mean
A lot of yellow! Decreasing mean rainfall
Project GoalsProject Goals
Assess where should adaptation Assess where should adaptation policies/programs be targetedpolicies/programs be targeted
Identify what kinds of adaptations might be Identify what kinds of adaptations might be cost-effective and pro-poorcost-effective and pro-poor
Propose methods and tools for policy-Propose methods and tools for policy-makers to evaluate optionsmakers to evaluate options
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Planned Project ProductsPlanned Project Products
Global change scenariosGlobal change scenarios Changes in climate, land use, socio-economic Changes in climate, land use, socio-economic
factors, and alternative policies factors, and alternative policies Typology of production systems Typology of production systems
Integrates biophysical and socio-economic factorsIntegrates biophysical and socio-economic factors Household-level impact and response matrixHousehold-level impact and response matrix Micro-level adaptation case studiesMicro-level adaptation case studies Policy decision framework toolsPolicy decision framework tools
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FANRPAN HostedKick-off Workshop 23-25 June 2008
Outcomes Identified large number of related projects—
agreed to cooperate and build synergies Data base of projects, institutions, individuals
working on adaptation to climate change Commitment of partners present to collaborate
IFPRI, FANRPAN, ASARECA, two German partners (PIK, ZALF), represented governments, African research institutions
Work plan agreed Ideas contributing to project implementation
Indicative List of Suggestions
Agriculture in a wider socio-economic contextEconomic diversification = adaptation strategy
Target and sensitize wide spectrum of stakeholders & decision makers
Participatory pro-active approach with policy makers
Regional focus (SADC, COMESA) makes more sense than purely national approach
Capacity building and practical adaptive strategies will be more valuable than academic publications
Roles—FANRPAN & ASARECA
Facilitate access to data, linkages of international with regional scientistsNetworking function critical given growing
number of projects and activities Assist in design of socio-economic scenarios Organize workshops and consultations with key
decision makersPolicy dialogues as results emerge
Facilitate linking regional students with capacity building opportunitiesSee PhD opportunity at www.fanrpan.org
Conclusion
o Project provides opportunity to build regional linkages and capacityOur strength is capacity to bring researchers together
with regional stakeholders, decision makersPartnership with ASARECA a valuable opportunity
with future potential benefits for regiono Measures to strengthening capacity for
adaptation to climate variability and change is usually good developmental policyBut as a recent Norwegian review of its Malawi
projects show, there are implications: need to diversify – diversify – diversify
Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
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79
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Years
Rea
l G
DP
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wth
(%
)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
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1.0
2.0
3.0
Var
iab
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y in
Rai
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Met
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Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
Mozambique flood
From David Grey