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Strategy and Nuclear Weapons National National Security Goals Strategy Global Environment But: technology influences strategy

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Strategy and Nuclear Weapons. NationalNational Security GoalsStrategy Global Environment But: technology influences strategy. Developments and Debates. Early 20 th century: Airpower Mid to late 20 th century: nuclear weapons 21 st century: cyberweapons. US Strategy to 1890s. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

National National SecurityGoals Strategy

Global Environment

But: technology influences strategy

Page 2: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Developments and Debates

• Early 20th century: Airpower• Mid to late 20th century: nuclear weapons• 21st century: cyberweapons

Page 3: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

US Strategy to 1890s

Total War: Richmond 1865

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/civil-war-150th-anniversary-gallery-1.14612?pmSlide=19
Page 4: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

1890s: Naval Power

• Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914)

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl&imgrefurl=http://www.amazon.com/Influence-History-1660-1783-Military-Weapons/dp/0486255093&h=0&w=0&sz=1&tbnid=Znu5oo85cK4hTM&tbnh=285&tbnw=177&zoom=1&docid=zRHICChp7hHCYM&hl=en&ei=pNVAUr38CeL84APaw4DQCw&ved=0CAIQsCU
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=ETSsNGz-FRTF6M&tbnid=TgGTk_btYrlIxM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.history.navy.mil/bios/mahan_alfred.htm&ei=AdZAUoXUDOLA4AOdmYHYDQ&bvm=bv.52434380,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNHv59xkRNR1P24as97nVMNEgCM-oA&ust=1380067171811534
Page 5: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

The Rise of Airpower: 20th century

Two Views•Airpower is a novelty•Airpower is decisive–Giulio Douhet (Italy)–William Mitchell (US)

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&docid=VmH4TcQ6tJnfjM&tbnid=ee3whiUv6JRF0M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.bibliovault.org/BV.book.epl?ISBN%3D9780817356088&ei=QtdAUt7wNPa24AOXhYGADw&bvm=bv.52434380,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFWc3lUnUhY_CQ_FxaW4n8Mz2VWFg&ust=1380067498186194
Page 6: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

WW II Strategic Bombing

Tokyo May 9-19, 1945

http://www.onlinemilitaryeducation.org/posts/10-most-devastating-bombing-campaigns-of-wwii/
Page 7: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Dresden (1945)

http://www.onlinemilitaryeducation.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/3.-Dresden.jpg
Page 8: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

August 6, 1945 Hiroshima

http://www.benoa.net/japan/hiroshima/index.html
Page 9: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

HiroshimaBefore After

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:AtomicEffects-p7a.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:AtomicEffects-p7b.jpg
Page 10: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

August 9, 1945 Nagasaki

Page 11: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Nagasaki: Before and After

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nagasaki_1945_-_Before_and_after_(adjusted).jpg
Page 12: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

“The Absolute Weapon”

Bernard Brodie, The Absolute Weapon, 1946

Page 13: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s

1. Bipolarity– balance

2. Deterrence– vulnerability

3. Arms Control– Managing rivalry

4. Rationality

Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present

1. Multipolarity– asymmetry

2. Deterrence– missile defense

3. Arms Control– coercion

4. Rationality

Page 14: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

First Nuclear Age 1945-90s

1. Bipolarity– balance

2. Deterrence– vulnerability

3. Arms Control– Managing rivalry

4. Rationality

Page 15: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

1. Bipolarity• An Arms Race– Spiral theory

• US and USSR rough equality• Balance of power• Triad– ICBMs– SLBMs– Bombers

Page 16: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

ICBMIntercontinental Ballistic Missile

Page 17: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

SLBM – Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile

http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/ohio/ohio3.html
Page 18: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Launch Tube Hatches on USS Alabama

Page 19: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Strategic Bombers

Page 20: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Two Arms Races by 1960s

1. Offense-offense2. Offense-defense

Page 21: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Early ABM Systems

• Johnson Administration: “Sentinel”

Page 22: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

2. Deterrence

Strategies of Deterrence1.Warfighting– JFK: Flexible Response– Nixon: Limited Nuclear Options: NSDM-242– Carter: Countervailing Strategy: PD-59– Reagan: Prevailing Strategy: NSDD-13

http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdm-nixon/nsdm_242.pdf
http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pd/pd59.pdf
http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/nsdd-13.pdf
Page 23: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

MIRVsMultiple Independently Targeted Reentry

Vehicles

Page 24: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Strategies of Deterrence2. Assured DestructionDeterrence = Second Strike capability• “Balance of Terror” – Albert Wohlstetter, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 2

(January 1959): 211-234

Page 25: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Soviet First Strike: Successful: USSR “wins”

US Second strike

US USSR

Page 26: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

US Second Strike CapabilitySoviet First StrikeUS Second strikeScenario: Everyone Dies

US USSR

Page 27: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals

ICBM SLBM Bombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheads launchers/warheads

US Strategic Nuclear Forces

1950 0 0 0 0 462 330

1960 12 12 32 32 1515 3083

1970 1054 1244 656 1552 390 3339

1980 1054 2144 512 5056 376 3568

1990 1000 2440 608 5312 267 4648

2000 550 2000 432 3456 73 1376

2013 450 500 288 1152 60 300

http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp
Page 28: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals

ICBM SLBM Bombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheads launchers/warheads

USSR/Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces

1956 0 0 0 0 40 120

1960 2 2 30 30 121 354

1970 1472 1472 317 287 157 568

1980 1338 5362 990 1558 157 568

1990 1297 6857 908 2900 127 1402

2000 756 3540 348 1576 112 790

2013 326 1050 160 624 72 810

http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp
Page 29: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Sources:•Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Nuclear Notebook•Natural Resources defense Council Archive of Nuclear Data

http://bos.sagepub.com/cgi/collection/nuclearnotebook
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp
Page 30: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

3. Arms Control

• Management of the arms race• Cut costs• Increase predictability• Increase transparency• “Essential equivalence”

Page 31: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties

Cold War Era• SALT I– Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms 1972– ABM Treaty 1972

• SALT II Agreement 1979

http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/salt1/text/salt1.htm
Page 32: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties

End of the Cold War• Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I

1991• START II 1993

Page 33: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties

Post-Cold War Era• Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT)

2002• New START Treaty 2010

Page 34: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Critics of Arms Control

• Soviet ICBM Superiority?• “Window of Vulnerability”

US launchers warheads Soviet launchers warheads

Titan 54 54 SS-17 108 432

Minuteman II 450 450 SS-18 308 3,080

Minuteman III 550 1,650 SS-19 330 1,980

Total 1,054 2,154 Total 746 5,492

Page 35: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Solutions to Window of VulnerabilityNixon to Reagan1. Mobile Missiles– MX Multiple Protective Shelters system

Page 36: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Solutions to Window of VulnerabilityReagan to present2. Missile DefenseReagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983

Page 37: Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

4. Rationality

• The logic of parity/equality• The logic of deterrence• The logic of management of the arms race• STRATEGIC STABILITY


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