Research & Forecast Report

ATLANTAQ3 2016 | Multifamily

Strong Rental Demand Drives Construction in AtlantaKey Takeaways > 3Q16 total supply: 5,515 units

> Demand in 3Q16 decreased by 48% from last year

> Rent growth 3Q16: 6.3% (National Rate: 4.1%)

> Occupancy Rate Increase: 1% year-over-year

Atlanta Multifamily MarketAtlanta’s growing population stems from a well-educated workforce and a business-focused environment. Steady population growth in recent years has been mostly a combination of the 55+ and 20-34 year old generations, with the latter group growing 6.4% above the national average (6.1%) from 2010 to 2015. The 20-34 year-old demographic has also been critical to the apartment market as they transition from college to paying jobs. According to financial website WalletHub.com, Atlanta, since 2015, boasts the fifth largest concentration of people with a bachelor’s degree or higher among major metros in the Southeast, trailing Washington, DC, Raleigh/Durham, Nashville and Baltimore.

Rapid apartment rental growth in the last couple years has followed economic gains inside the Perimeter and northern submarkets. Corporate relocations bringing employees inside the perimeter, along with vast manufacturing and transportation infrastructure, have pushed job growth levels into strong territory. The Trade, Transportation and Utilities sector gained 15,200 jobs during the 12-months ending September 2016, resulting in job growth of 2.6%. Construction will continue to support the demand in the short-term, particularly inside the Perimeter and to the north, but in the long-term concerns of oversupply could cause development growth to level off.

RENT

Annual rent growth levels remain well above the historical norms, approximately 6.0% to 8.0% over the past nine quarters. Atlanta recorded a 6.3% increase in the past 12-months, ending 3Q16 and topped the national rental growth rate of 4.1%. Rent increases over the last couple years were most evident in Class A and B product; however, Class C product averaged roughly 5.0% over the same period. Rent growth remains bifurcated as areas with less job growth and further from the city’s CBD have experienced slower growth rates and areas closer to employment continue to thrive and benefit from stronger rents.

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1000

$1100

$1200

$1300

$1400

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

US ATLANTA Source: AXIOMetrics

Historical Apartment Rents & Occupancy

Market IndicatorsRelative to prior period

ATLQ3 2016

ATLQ4 2016*

VACANCY

RENTS

CONCESSIONS

TRANSACTIONS

PRICE PER UNIT

CAP RATES

*Projected

Occ

upan

y %

Effec

tive

Mo

Rent

2 Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2016 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International

SUPPLY

As supply remains elevated in Atlanta, new product on the market has remained controllable and focused in certain submarkets. Inventory expanded at an average annual rate of 1.3% over the past three years, as completions ranged from roughly 5,100 units to 10,500 units. In the 3Q16, a total of 5,515 units were added, with 654 taken offline, for an annual net expansion rate of 1.0%. Completions largely have been focused in Midtown, Buckhead and Sandy Springs, while most other submarkets outside the perimeter remain untouched by development. With the exception of the new Atlanta football stadium, submarkets south of Midtown continue to lag as bifurcation remains the story in Atlanta’s apartment rental market.

DEMAND

Atlanta apartment demand remains robust, as annual absorption recorded between 8,400 units and 12,800 units the past 12 quarters. The five-year annual average is roughly 8,500 units. Compared to 3Q15, 3Q16 has produced 8,585 units, a reduction of nearly 2,300 units. Much of the top-tier and middle-tier units have maintained high occupancy; however, much of the recent demand is focused on existing, older and lower-tier units. Demand should continue to remain solid in stronger performing submarkets, but likely struggle in weaker areas.

OCCUPANCY

In 3Q16, occupancy registered 95.8%, up 1.0 point year-over-year and up 7.5 points since 4Q09. Higher occupancy posted in top and middle- market categories over older and more affordable product. A similar trend was seen among submarkets, as central and northern submarkets generally maintained higher occupancy rates. Meanwhile, submarkets to Midtown’s south and outside the Perimeter, such as DeKalb and Clayton Counties, remain challenged with weaker demand. As more completions hit the market, occupancy rates will be tested, measuring the strength of healthier submarkets.

OUTLOOK FOR 2017

Atlanta’s employment growth is expected to continue to outshine other similar sized metro markets due to its stellar economic fundamentals and corporate headquarter expansions. New supply will continue to hit the market through the end of 2016 and throughout 2017. Look for overall rent growth to settle between 3.5% and 4.5% next year while occupancy rates stabilize around 94.0%. As Atlanta’s late –cycle recovery starts to peak and conditions have begun to stabilize, look for increased supply to start limiting revenue growth near top-tier submarkets such as Midtown and Buckhead. Things to look for in the next year as rent growth tapers is the increasing pressure of single-family housing and elevated asset pricing, particularly inside the Perimeter.

Historical Investment Volume & Cap Rates

UPDATE - Recent Transactions in the Market

Notable Sales Activity

PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE (UNITS) PRICE / UNIT BUYER

The Residence at Buckhead Atl Buckhead 8/11/2016 $136,500,000 370 $368,919 Simpson Housing

The Atlantic Midtown 9/1/2016 $86,542,896 310 $279,171 Cocke Finkelstein, Inc.

Elan Lindbergh Buckhead 9/20/2016 $84,630,000 358 $236,397 AVR Realty Co.

70 Perimeter Ctr. E Central Perimeter 7/12/2016 $79,000,000 380 $207,895 Bell Partners, Inc.

Atrium Westside Midtown 7/14/2016 $74,500,000 336 $221,726 Bluerock Growth Fund, LLC

Veranda at Avalon North Fulton 7/25/2016 $74,120,041 276 $268,550 PGIM Real Estate

Alta Mill West Atlanta 9/28/2016 $72,372,073 436 $165,990 Strata Equity Group

5501 Glenridge Dr. Central Perimeter 10/13/2016 $68,250,000 480 $142,188 Bluerock Residential Growth

Haven at Avalon North Fulton 7/25/2016 $67,137,718 250 $268,550 PGIM Real Estate

400 Belmont Northwest Atlanta 7/18/2016 $57,272,000 274 $209,022 Brickshire Inv. Group

Sales Volume AVG Cap Rate

ATLANTA MULTIFAMILY

Atlanta apartment investment volume year-to-date 2016 is a little ahead of this time last year and on track to finish the year with more than $6 billion-plus transacted. Activity was solid in Q3 with $2.4 billion of multi-family projects sold. The average price per unit increased to $98,677 in Q3 according to Real Capital Analytics. Atlanta’s average cap rate for apartments dropped slightly to 6.2%.

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

YTD

16

Billions

Atlanta Multifamily Market (continued)

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: CoStar Comps

3 Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2016 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International

> NCR’s Midtown Atlanta Headquarters is expecting to expand. Phase 2 will be developed near the initial tower, currently under construction and expected to be ready in 1Q19. The 494,000-square-foot office tower will cost $213 million to develop. In January, NCR said it would bring 3,600 jobs to Midtown as it moves its headquarters from Duluth, GA.

> Midtown’s 715 Peachtree is expected to land Honeywell International Inc.’s $20 million North American software development center and division headquarters. The expansion will create more than 800 jobs and make Atlanta central to the industrial conglomerate’s pivot from hardware to a software and services company.

> Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. Inc. has opened its new 107,000 SF parts and distribution facility in Lithia Springs, GA. The facility stocks about 43,000 Lexus parts, the facility will serve 27 Lexus dealers in the Southeast, primarily in Atlanta, and a five-state area that includes Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama and Tennessee.

> Management and IT consulting firm CapTech is expanding in Atlanta. The Richmond, VA-based company has opened an office in Midtown and plans to add 50 jobs over the next two years. The Atlanta expansion is part of CapTech’s “local consultants helping local clients” strategy. A low cost of living and a strong university system “provides a steady stream of good talent,” said CapTech’s Lead Director, Boyd Christian. In Atlanta, CapTech will hire java developers and data analytics experts.

> Midici – The Neapolitan Pizza Co. is set to open a roughly 4,500 SF restaurant at Peachtree and 10th streets. It will be the first Atlanta location for the Encino, Calif-based restaurant chain, which currently has dozens of new locations in the works across the country. MidiCi could open by the end of the year.

> Hollis Cobb Associates, a leading accounts receivable management company, recently announced the expansion of its regional HQ within the Gwinnett Place CID. The new 27K SF facility on Satellite Boulevard will allow HCA to accommodate its rapidly growing workforce and will bring hundreds of new jobs to Gwinnett County. The Gwinnett Place CID continues to invest in transportation infrastructure improvement projects throughout the area and recently announced expansion of its boundaries with an additional $27M in commercial properties joining the CID.

Metro Atlanta Housing Permit Activity

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD16

Multifam

ily Permits

 Issued

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Metro Atlanta Employment Overview

‐42.2‐23.0

30.2

69.4 66.248.9

‐26.8

‐136.6

‐20.9

35.6 42.459.9

89.0 82.4 82.5

‐150.0

‐100.0

‐50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

Jobs Add

ed/Lost (thou

sand

s)

Source: US Dept. of Labor Statistics/Moody’s Analytics

Metro Atlanta Employment Comparison

METRO AREA RANK Y-O-Y EMPLOYMENT

Y-O-Y PERCENT

UNEMPLOYMENTRATE

New York/NNJ 1 184,200 2.0% 5.2%

Dallas-Fort Worth 2 117,300 3.4% 4.1%

Los Angeles/OC 3 112,900 1.9% 5.1%

DC-Arlington 4 77,000 2.4% 4.0%

Atlanta 5 71,000 2.7% 5.0%

Seattle 6 70,700 3.7% 4.5%

Chicago 7 62,200 1.3% 5.4%

Philadelphia 8 60,700 2.2% 5.7%

Miami 9 59,700 2.4% 5.1%

Boston 10 56,700 2.1% 3.5%

San Francisco 11 55,200 2.4% 4.1%

Orlando 12 51,600 4.4% 4.4%

U.S. Total 2,440,000 1.7% 4.9%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Metro Level Data August 2016(p) Average, not Seasonally Adjusted

Notable Atlanta Job Relocations

4 Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2016 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International

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Hunnicutt St NW

Mills St NW

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Camden Rd NE

Peachtree St NEDeering Rd NW

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Peachtree Cir NE

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BarnesdaleWay NE

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Peachtree ParkDr NE

Armour Dr NE

Plasters Ave NE

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Conyers

Covington

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Jonesboro

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Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research

1

21

41

9

29

49

5

25

45

13

3317

37

3

23

43

31

7

27

47

1535

19

39

2

22

42

10

30

6

26

46

14

34

18

38

4

24

44

12

32

8

28

48

16

36

20

40

1

9

5

13

3

11

7

15 2

10

6

14

4

12

8

16

17

LegendLease Up

Under Construction

Midtown

Midtown

11

5 Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2016 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International

Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units

1 Accent Waterworks Westplan Investors 1390 Northside Dr NW Berkeley Park 114

2 Westside Heights WSE Property Management LLC 903 Huff Rd NW Blandtown 282

3 Ardmore & 28th - Phase II Cocke Finkelstein, Inc. 306 Ardmore Cir NW Brookwood 109

4 Millworks Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1900 Emery St NW Brookwood 345

5 1000 Park Wood Partners 1000 Park Ave NE Buckhead 224

6 Alexan Pharr Road Apartments Trammell Crow Residential Company 361 Pharr Rd NE Buckhead 244

7 Hanover Park Place The Hanover Company 400 Pharr Rd NE Buckhead 375

8 Domain at Phipps Plaza Columbus Realty Partners, Ltd. 705 Phipps Plz NE Buckhead 320

9 Hanover Buckhead Village The Hanover Company 3116 Roswell Rd NW Buckhead 353

10 AMLI 3464 City Apartments AMLI Residential Properties, LP 3464 Roxboro Rd NE Buckhead 640

11 The Battery - The Flats Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 2675 Cobb Pky SE Cumberland 239

12 The Battery - Parkside Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 2675 Cobb Pky SE Cumberland 211

13 Modera by Mill Creek - Vinings Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 3205 Cumberland Blvd Cumberland 269

14 The Metro Audubon Communities 1500 Parkwood Cir SE Cumberland/Galleria 200

15 Post Centennial Park Post Properties, Inc. 325 Centenial Olympic Park Dr NW

Downtown Atlanta 438

16 Alexan Glenwood Trammell Crow Residential Company 860 Glenwood Ave SE Grant Park 216

17 The George Urban Realty Partners 301 Memorial Dr SE Grant Park 130

18 Overture Linbergh Greystar Real Estate Partners 690 Lindbergh Dr NE Lindbergh-Morosgo 190

19 Cheshire Bridge Apartments Catalyst Development Partners, LLC 2470 Cheshire Bridge Rd NE Lindridge-Martin Manor 282

20 464 Bishop St NW Paces Holdings, LLC 464 Bishop St NW Loring Heights 232

LEASE UP

# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units

1 Gables Brookhaven Gables Residential 4420 Peachtree Rd NE Brookhaven 374

2 Venue Brookwood Grayco Partners 2144 Peachtree Rd NW Brookwood 249

3 The Encore Oxford Properties 3290 Cobb Galleria Pky Cumberland 339

4 400 Belmont Wood Partners 400 Belmont Pl Cumberland 274

5 The Reserve at the Ballpark Atlantic Realty Partners 2875 Crescent Pky Cumberland 321

6 Accent North Druid Hills Westplan Investors 7 Executive Park Dr NE Decatur/N Druid Hills 310

7 The Reserve at Decatur Atlantic Realty Partners 2600 Milscott Dr Decatur/N Druid Hills 298

8 Reserve at Mills Creek Housing Authority Of Dekalb County 560 Parkdale Dr Decatur/N Druid Hills 100

9 ARLO Centro Development LLC 245 E Trinity Pl Downtown Decatur 210

10 Alexan EAV Trammell Crow Residential Company 1205 Metropolitan Ave SE East Atlanta 120

11 The Local On 14th Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 455 14th St NW Home Park 361

12 Piedmont Heights AMLI Residential Properties, LP 2323 Piedmont Rd NE Lindbergh-Morosgo 375

13 Sixty11th Selig Enterprises, Inc. 60 11th St NE Midtown 320

14 Hearthside Club at Tucker Norsouth Companies, Inc. 4358 Lynburn Dr Tucker 112

15 1824 Defoor RAM Partners, LLC 1824 Defoor Ave NW Underwood Hills 156

16 Alexan Vinings Trammell Crow Residential Company 3330 Cumberland Blvd SE Vinings 232

17 Solis Downwood Terwilliger Pappas 3201 Downwood Cir NW West Paces 280

TOTAL 4,431

6 Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2016 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International

UNDER CONSTRUCTION (cont.)

# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units

21 Post Midtown Millenium Post Properties, Inc. 33 11th St Midtown 356

22 Alta at the Park Wood Partners 223 12th St Midtown 198

23 Yoo on The Park The Trillist Companies 207 13th St NE Midtown 245

24 Apogee Midtown The Related Companies 22 14th St NW Midtown 390

25 Broadstone Midtown Alliance Residential Company 811 Juniper St NE Midtown 218

26 Modera Midtown Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 90 Peachtree Pl NW Midtown 435

27 Trace Midtown Apartments JLB Partners, LP 782 Peachtree St NE Midtown 290

28 AMLI Arts Center AMLI Residential Properties, LP 1240 W Peachtree St Midtown 350

29 Alta Midtown Wood Partners 915 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 369

30 Hanover Midtown The Hanover Company 1010 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 328

31 Azure on the Park Atlantic Realty Partners 1020 Piedmont Ave NE Midtown 329

32 1270 Spring Street Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1270 Spring St NW Midtown 259

33 Grant Park Apartments Fairfield Residential 290 Martin Luther King Jr Dr SE Oakland 321

34 North + Line Southeast Capital Companies, LLC 695 North Ave NE Old Fourth Ward 228

35 Old Fourth Ward Apartments JLB Partners, LP 608 Ralph McGill Blvd NE Old Fourth Ward 231

36 Anthem on Ashley North American Properties 720 Ralph McGill Blvd NE Old Fourth Ward 250

37 Hanover at Perimeter Town Center

The Hanover Company 1140 Hammond Dr NE Perimeter Center 385

38 675 N. Highland Abraham Properties & Builders 675 North Highland Ave NE Poncey-Highland 124

39 Station R Greystar Real Estate Partners 144 Moreland Ave NE Reynoldstown 291

40 Chastain Heights at Sandy Springs

WSE Property Management LLC 225 Franklin Rd NE Sandy Springs 325

41 Solis Parkview Phase I Terwilliger Pappas 5070 Peachtree Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 303

42 The Olmsted Chamblee Cocke Finkelstein, Inc. 5193 Peachtree Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 277

43 The Point on Scott Fuqua Development 2532 N Decatur Rd Decatur/North Druid Hills 310

44 The Cliftwood ECI Group 180 Allen Rd NE Downtown 248

45 The Residences at City Springs Carter/Selig enterprises 6300-6400 Bluestone Rd Downtown 294

46 Square One George S. Morgan Development Co., Inc. 6050 Roswell Rd NE Downtown 203

47 Modera Sandy Springs Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 6135 Roswell Rd NE Downtown 340

48 Mills Creek Crossing II Norsouth Companies, Inc. 3175 Mills Creek Cir Decatur/North Druid Hills 92

49 Green Park Phase II Preferred Apartment Communities 2037 Weems Rd Decatur/North Druid Hills 282

TOTAL 13,684

Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research

Over 80 Multifamily Developments currently Proposed for the Urban

Atlanta Area.

7 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International

Copyright © 2016 Colliers International.The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

East Region Multifamily Advisory GroupColliers International | AtlantaPromenade | Suite 8001230 Peachtree Street, NEAtlanta, Georgia | USA+1 404 888 9000

FOR MORE INFORMATIONRon CameronPrincipal | East Region+1 404 877 9287ron.cameron@colliers.com

Will MathewsPrincipal | East Region+1 404 877 9285will.mathews@colliers.com

CONTRIBUTORSScott AmosonDirector of Research | Atlanta

Jaime SlocumbTransaction Coordinator | East Region

Chevene King, IIIFinancial Analyst | East Region

Atlanta Submarkets

Units sold since 2011

30,000MORE THAN

Group gross transactional value since 2011

$2.0B

Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors

50MORE THAN

Expansive geographic footprint

20COVERING OVER

STATES