strykowsky 1project review november 2, 2005 ncsx project review november 2, 2005 cost and schedule...

Strykowsky 1 Project Review November 2, 2005

NCSX Project Review

November 2, 2005

Cost and Schedule

Ron Strykowsky


Overview• Project Schedule

– FY05 Performance SPI = 0.95– Risks, vendor delays and impacts to date being mitigated.– Realistic detailed plans in place to complete project.– First plasma July 2009 with 5 months float.

• Project budget – Updated to reflect ETC’s plus unrecoverable cost variances. – FY05 Performance CPI= 0.96– Opportunities identified to offset cost growth. – Plan consistent with anticipated BA funding guidance.

• Project Contingency– Contingency budget supported by bottoms up assessment. Near

term risks quantified.• Project Controls

– Sound system in place. Provides value added forecasts, plans, staffing needs, early warning of cost/schedule issues and basis for “what-if” exercises.

– Communication to stakeholders key to rapid issue resolution.


Proposed Changes to Performance Measurement Baseline

Current Baseline

Unrecoverable Cost Variances

ETC Updates & Design Changes

Total Proposed Change New PMB

12 - Vacuum Vessel Systems 9,400 (68) 107 39 9,439 13 - Conventional Coils 4,790 246 (205) 41 4,831 14 - Modular Coils 29,114 1,044 1,198 2,242 31,356 15 - Structures 1,413 (1) (26) (27) 1,386 16 - Coil Services 1,140 (5) (5) 1,135 17 - Cryostat and Base Support Struct 1,361 178 (6) 172 1,533 18 - Field Period Assembly 5,430 (23) (126) (149) 5,281 19 - Stellarator Core Mgt & Integr 2,738 9 20 29 2,767 1 Stellarator Core Systems 55,386 1,385 957 2,342 57,728 2 Heating, Fueling & Vac Sys 783 8 8 791 3 Diagnostics 1,143 18 (12) 6 1,149 4 Electrical Power Sys 3,301 68 (64) 4 3,305 5 Central I&C Sys 2,050 (7) (169) (176) 1,874 6 Facility Sys 691 (13) (13) 678 7 Test Cell Prep & MachAssy 4,373 129 54 183 4,556 8 Project Oversight & Support 12,630 1 3 4 12,634 subtotal 80,357 1,593 764 2,357 82,714 Contingency 11,969 (1,593) (764) (2,357) 9,612 TEC = 92,326 92,326

DCMA 75 7592,401 92,401

BCWR 44,400 Contingency balance 9,612

21.6%


Budget ReconciliationUnrecoverable Cost Variances

wbs 13 TF Design $119 TF Design iterationswbs 13 TF Fabrication facilities $149 Design time plus materials.

Electrical sys debugging.wbs 14 Modular Coil Type C detail

design$409 Iterative process in

conjunction with TRC fabrication.

wbs 14 Coil test facility fabrication and TRC testing

$150 Cryogenic systems debugging and design. Safety design safeguards.

wbs 14 MCWF 1st production casting $137 (part of prototype contract)

wbs 14 MCWF contract oversight $110 Working with EIO addressing technical reqmnts and schedule.

wbs 17 Cryostat & base support structure prel dsn

$178 Designer and engineering time underestimated

wbs 74 Test cell electrical power supply

$178 House power for test cell.

wbs 4 Electrical pwr sys DC sys & coil protection

$68 DC systems engineering.

Other $95$1,593


Budget ReconciliationProposed PMB Updates

wbs 12 Vacuum Vessel Design incl Title III $204 Redesign of insulation scheme and cooling tubes

wbs 12 VV Hardware ($98) Cheaper tubes and insulationwbs 131 TF Coil fabrication $432 Facility, Material and winding operationwbs 132 PF Coil design/fab ($466) Use NSTX PF1a coil for central solenoidwbs 133 Trim Coils ($154) Simplify design of trim coilswbs 14 Modular Coil Design for Type A & B incl

interface hardware$520 re-estimated based on Type C experience

wbs 14 Modular Coil Winding -Operations ($17) Increased time for ground wrap, interlacing and shift differential offset by supervision and oversight reduction due to shorten schedule.

wbs 14 Modular coil-to-coil interface hardware $655 Underestimated cost of shims and high strength bolts

wbs 14 MCWF Title III $69 Req'd oversight of contractwbs 18 Eliminated 350C bakeout of field period assy ($40)

wbs 18 Field Period Tooling and Fixturing ($50) Only 1 set of fixtures req'dwbs 31 Magnetic Diagnostics $62 Saddle loops and termination box design/fabwbs 38 E-beam mapping ($104) Simplified applicationwbs 81 Project Management ($54) Revised FY09 ETC Reqmntwbs 82 Dimensional control $84 Coordination of metrology and design integration

wbs 5x Plasma Control ($100) Simplified Plasma Control Other re-scheduling and laboratory rate changes ($180)

$764


Risk & Opportunities

Risk Opportunity

Modular Coil Winding Operations

$661 Re-evaluate in 3rd quarter with experience gained winding first 3 coils.

($445) Process improvement studies challenge to reduce hours by 10%.

TF Coil Winding Operations

$448 Winding Operations in FY07 & FY08 to be re-evaluated after first coil is fabricated.

($82) Process improvement studies challenge to reduce hours by 10%.

TF,PF Coil and Structure

~($1,000) Chinese Fusion Laboratory

Field Period & Machine Assembly

($404) Two shift field period assy and final machine assy. Accelerates first plasma by 2 months.

$1,109 ($1,931)


Contingency Supported by Updated Risk Assessment

Contingency Analysis

Proposed PMB BCWR Contingency %12 - Vacuum Vessel Systems (wo/VVSA) 4,305 863 209 24%VVSA Contract 5,134 2,392 240 10%13 - Conventional Coils 4,827 3,316 1,268 38%14 - Modular Coils (wo/MCWF) 23,159 8,086 2,323 29%MCWF Contract 8,192 4,499 450 10%15 - Structures 1,386 1,308 391 30%16 - Coil Services 1,135 1,135 341 30%17 - Cryostat and Base Support Struct 1,533 1,162 347 30%18 - Field Period Assembly 5,280 3,945 1,179 30%19 - Stellarator Core Mgt & Integr 2,767 1,283 128 10%1 Stellarator Core Systems 57,719 27,989 6,876 24.6%2 Heating, Fueling & Vac Sys 791 443 62 14%3 Diagnostics 1,149 744 176 24%4 Electrical Power Sys 3,305 2,779 549 20%5 Central I&C Sys 1,874 1,840 187 10%6 Facility Sys 679 654 131 20%7 Test Cell Prep & MachAssy 4,563 3,667 793 22%8 Project Oversight & Support 12,634 6,285 838 13%subtotal 82,714 44,401 9,612 21.6%Contingency 9,612 TEC = 92,326 DCMA 75

92,401 VVSA Contract 5,134 2,392 240 10%MCWF Contract 8,192 4,499 450 10%WBS 12-18 41,625 19,815 6,058 31%WBS 2-7 & 85 (BOP) 13,560 11,326 2,209 20%WBS 19,81 & 82 14,203 6,369 655 10%

82,714 44,401 9,612 21.6%


Cost Profile

$5.9

$20.2

$38.3

$55.9

$69.3

$80.4 $82.7

$-$5.0

$10.0$15.0$20.0$25.0$30.0$35.0$40.0$45.0$50.0$55.0$60.0$65.0$70.0$75.0$80.0$85.0$90.0$95.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

$M

FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

$23.8

$73.1

$57.241.3

$92.4$89.0

Plan supports BA guidance w/adequate contingency

• FY06 PMB contains labor intensive Non-critical work

•Retire/understand technical risk• Source term for unanticipated labor over-runs in critical path work

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 Total BA 7.9$ 15.9$ 17.5$ 15.9$ 15.9$ 15.9$ 3.4$ 92.4$ PMB 5.9$ 14.2$ 18.2$ 17.5$ 13.4$ 11.1$ 2.3$ 82.7$ Contingency 1.3$ 2.5$ 4.8$ 1.0$ 9.6$

BO (PMB + Cont) 5.9$ 14.2$ 18.2$ 18.8$ 15.9$ 15.9$ 3.4$ 92.4$


Baseline Forecast ActualLevel I CD-1 May-2003 May-2003

CD-2 Feb-2004 Feb-2004CD-3 Sep-2004 Sep-2004CD-4 Jul-2009 Feb-2009

Level II Vacuum Vessel & Modular Coil Prel Dsn Rvw Oct-2003 Oct-2003Performance Baseline Review Nov-2003 Nov-2003Conduct VVSA FDR Jul-2004 May-2004Mod Coil Winding Form Final Design Review Jul-2004 May-2004Award MC Conductor Contract Dec-2004 Oct-2004Award VV Production Vendor Oct-2004 Sep-2004Award MCWF Mfg Contract Oct-2004 Sep-2004First MCWF Delivered Jul-2005 Sep-2005Begin TF Coil fabrication activities Sep-2005 Jun-2005Complete First Mod Coil Fabrication Mar-2006 Feb-2006Vacuum Vessel Sectors Delivered Sep-2006 Mar-2006Last MCWF Delivered Jun-2007 Feb-2007PF Coils Awarded Mar-2008 Oct-2007Begin Assembly of First Field Period Jul-2007 Jan-2007All TF Coils Delivered Aug-2008 Nov-2007Last Field Period Assembled Nov-2008 Jun-2008Begin Vac Vsl Pumpdown Feb-2009 Sep-2008Begin Cryostat Installation Apr-2009 Nov-2008Operational Readiness Jun-2009 Dec-2008Begin Start-up Testing Jun-2009 Jan-2009

Joule FY04 JOULE #1-Authorize Prototype Fab Dec-2003 Oct-2003FY04 JOULE #2-Begin winding on 3D surface Mar-2004 Jan-2004FY04 JOULE #3-Prototype Casting Ready for Machining Jun-2004 May-2004FY04 JOULE #4 - CD-3 Readiness Sep-2004 Sep-2004FY05 JOULE #1- VVSA, MCWF and MC Copper Conductor Awarded Dec-2004 Oct-2004FY05 JOULE #2- Cmplt Assy of twisted racetrack Mar-2005 Mar-2005FY05 JOULE #3- Mod Coil Winding Type C FDR Jun-2005 Jun-2005FY05 JOULE #4- Complete Winding First MC Sep-2005 Dec-2005FY06 JOULE Receive all VVSA and 1/3 of MCWF's Sep-2006 Mar-2006FY07 JOULE Complete Winding of 1/2 of Modular Coils Sep-2007 Nov-2006

NCSX Milestone Status

• Request change of Vac Vsl delivery milestone from May to September (Non-critical path task would have 12 mo. free float remaining)


NCSX Critical Path Summary ScheduleFY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

DOE MilestonesMC/VV PDR CD-2

EIR CD-3 Start of Fab Pumpdown Vac VslStart of Preliminary DesignVac Vsl FDR

Modular Coil FDRJoule #1 Authorize Protype Fab Joule #1 Award VVSA,MWCF,Cond ORA

Joule #2 Demonstarte Winding Process on 3-D Surface Joule #2 Cmplt Assy TRCJoule #3 First Prototype Casting Produced for Machining Joule #3 Mod Coil Winding Type C FDR CD-4 Completion of MIE Project

Joule #4 CD-3 Prereq Complete Joule #4 Cmplt Winding First MC

VACUUM VESSELTitle I & II Design Vessel Award

Manuf DevelVessel Fab

MODULAR COILSTitle I & II MCWF

Twisted Racetrack Fabrication

Title II Design for Winding Type C Type C Type A Type B

Component Fabrication

MCWF Manufacturing DevelopmentFabricate Prototype Type "C" Award Winding Form Contract

C1 C2

Fab Winding Forms

Station 2-Wind & VPI

Station 3-Wind & VPI

VPI,Clamps,& Test

FIELD PERIOD ASSEMBLY Attach Cooling,Diag, Insulation

Pre-Assemble Mod Coils

MC Installation

Assemble 1st PeriodAssemble 2nd Period

Assemble 3rd Period

MACHINE ASSEMBLY Install Supports and Lower PF CoilsInstall,align, connect Field Period Assemblies

Legend: Pump DownCompleted Task Connect to Ancilliary SystemsCritical Paths Install Cryostat & PTPOff critical path Startup Testing and E-Beam Mapping

Ancilliary Systems Installation First Plasma

TotalFloat5 mo.

C3 C4 C5 C6 A1 A2 A3 B1 A4 A5 A6 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6

Sound Plan to Complete Project on Schedule

•2 shifts on 2 lines all modular coils•5 months schedule float•Schedule contingency remaining;

•2 shift Field period Assay•2 shift Final Machine assy•Sat & Sundays

• All cost, schedule, manpower and progress estimates, analyses and “what-if" exercises based on resource loaded schedules.•1220 tasks to complete, 1700 resource estimates, 1500 links.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

Mach Assy

TF Coil

FP Assy

Mod Coil

Other

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY090

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

Staffing needs being met

Technicians

PPPL Engineers

ORNL Engineers

Project Staffing(incl contingency for risk)

Mechanical Technicians(inc contingency for risk)


Project Controls Operating per DOE 413

• Organization

– WBS managers identified and held accountable for technical, cost schedule & safety

– WBS used as basis for organizing and defining scope, used as basis for all estimates

– Project organization responsive to current mission; Dudek assigned as RLM for Fabrication

• Planning

– Resource loaded schedule basis for all budgets, manpower projections, plans, and progress

– Manpower; Names of individuals provide assurance of schedule realism. Term staff hiring in progress

– Responsive to re-baselining exercises, ETC requests, “what-if” exercises


Project Controls Operating per DOE 413

• Reporting/Communications

– Monthly progress status

– Earned value reports, schedule performance detail, variance & critical path analyses

– Vendor; Weekly reports, visits, weekly phone calls

– Internal; Deputy director weekly, SIT weekly, QA weekly, Engineering weekly

– External; IPT, Lehman reviews, DOE quarterly, PARS , WEB site posting of data reports.

• Control

– ECP’s document scope, schedule and/or cost changes. Required to change official performance measurement baseline.

– Change control board dispositions all changes. DOE notified prior to change being processed.


Conclusion

• Project Plans updated to reflect a realistic plan forward– ETC’s, unrecoverable cost variances and risks

recognized. – Detailed plans updated to show current understanding

incl vendor forecasts.– Adequate schedule and budget contingency– Manpower needs being met

• Project management functioning effectively– Organization reactive to near term focus– Cost, schedule, technical and safety issues being

controlled and communicated to stakeholders

strykowsky 1project review november 2, 2005 ncsx project review november 2, 2005 cost and schedule...

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