March 26, 2010

1

We Are Stuck ToThe Virtual Learning Environment

For Another Decade

Piet van der ZandenIT Adviser for ICT in Education

a.h.w.vanderzanden@tudelft.nl

March 26, 2010 2

Blackboard’s implementation grows along a S-shaped curve over time, just as commercial products in the market:

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General

Arts&Humanities

NaturalSciences

Engineering

SocialSciences

SocialSciences-113

VLE’s lifecycle is 19.3 year with standard deviation 3.7 yearIt takes 3 to 5 years to reach a 10 % critical mass (institutionalisation)

Part I: Results of 236 Higher Education Blackboard VLEs

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Research findings based on 1.15 * 106 courses, 144 * 103 unique users, 123 * 106 educational activities

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

1 2

7

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89

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19The Long Tail

March 26, 2010 3

S-shaped Curve caught with Gompertz Curve as Model

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-5 0 5 10

a = 0.5 a = 1 a = 2

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b = 0.5 b = 1 b = 2

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c = 0.5 c = 1 c = 2

Implementation Grade = a * Exp(- b * Exp(- c * Lifespan Months))a = maximum number of courses (vertical shifter or upper asymptote)b = 3.2 ± 0.2 (horizontal shifter)c = 0.037 ± 0.01 (angle or growth rate)

The growth is slowly increasing at the start and slowly decreasing at the endTo compensate for pilot studies with 0 to 30 Lifespan Months (start at 0 to -30).

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

φ

Research findings based on 1.15 * 106 courses, 144 * 103 unique users, 123 * 106 educational activities

a b c

March 26, 2010 4

Part II: Higher Education Trends & Vanishing Scarcities

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

Proposition: Awarding degrees for epistemological knowledge, as a major trademark for universities today, will cease due to open education resources

Massification

Semantic web

Personalisation

Mobility

Heterogeneity

Open EducationResources

Branding

Course shopping

Pictionaries

Sign language

Vanishing scarcityof Information

Vanishing scarcityof Communication

Vanishing scarcityof Presence

Reposition ofUniversities

Ring-of-UniversitiesVanishing scarcityof Books

Yesterday

Today

Tomorrow

Computing

Networking

Knowledge sharing

Lonely learning

Collaborative learning

March 26, 2010 5

Rings-of-Universities

CommunitiesCitizens Governments

Nations

CorporationsInstitutionsManufacturers

Entrepreneurs

Tomorrow universities will operate in networks

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

Proposition: The facilitating university cannot survive without being a node in a ring-of-universities holding complementary brands to facilitate multi-disciplinary educational tracks in a trans-university set-up.

March 26, 2010 6

Three University Archetypes with typical characteristics

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

Time200017501000

§ education oriented§ Latin as lingua franca§ high mobility§ oral dissemination§ ruled by religion

1st generation universityScholasticism

§ research oriented§ mother tongue§ low mobility§ journal dissemination§ ruled by government

2nd generation universityEnlightenment

§ valorisation oriented§ English as lingua franca§ virtual mobility§ open access dissemination§ ruled by market

3rd generation universitySustainability

from society-detached up to society-connected

March 26, 2010 7

Technology timeline

§ cotton§ coal§ steam

STEEL

§ railroads§ steel§ mechanisation

§ electricity§ chemistry

§ petrochemicals§ cars§ information techn

§ ICT§ biotechnology§ network

STEAM

Time1890 1990194018401790

O ILO IL Schumpeter

Foster

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

Kondratieff

mechanisation automation information

from industrial age into information age

March 26, 2010 8

Information Technology Timeline

Time200019801960

Electronic Data Processing Era

Internetworking and Communication Era

Computing and Database Era

Portal and Repository Era

2020

Semantic Web and Grid Era

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

from Mainframe to PC to Network up to Repository up to Grid

March 26, 2010 9

Timeline of Learning Theories

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

Know betweenKnow that Know where

BrunerPavlov

VygotskySkinner Gagné

Watson

Piaget

McFarlaneRogoff

SiemensDownes

Know acrossKnow how Know why

Time1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

drill & practice

Change of reflexive behaviour

A in A out

Behaviorism Cognitisvism

facts & rules

Transfer of knowledge

A in A out

Constructivism

ill-defined problems

Construction of knowledge

A

Social constructivism

society & culture

A

BC

Peer construction of knowledge

Connectivism

man & machine

B

AE

D

C

Construction via online peers and systems

from lonely-learning up to collaborative-learning

March 26, 2010 10

Lonely learning versus Collaborative learning

Mono-Discipline

Chair

Associate Associate

Professor

Assistant Assistant Assistant

Chair

Professor

Know-thatKnow-howKnow-why

teaches

Multi-Discipline

Bench

Bench

Nector

Know-where

Know-betweenKnow-across

teaches Nector

Associate

Assistant

Associate

Assistant Assistant

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

… to Benchfrom Chair …

from teaching single disciplines up to interdisciplinary coaching

March 26, 2010 11

From lonely learners to … … collaborative producers

Database

App.

know-thatknow-howknow-why

know-whereknow-betweenknow-across

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

… technology tomorrowtechnology today …

RepositoryA

RepositoryB

Unstructured ContentSocial Software

Structured ContentInstitutional Software

people

systems

from monolithic systems to multifaceted environments

March 26, 2010 12

1980 20202000 Time

ICT uses

1990 2010 2030

Graphical Model of Educational Technology & Practice

Single-userPC tools

Computer BasedTraining

Computer literateText authoringImage authoringPresentation authoringSimulation makingCreatingProducing

© 2010 Dr. ing. A.H.W. (Piet) van der Zanden

Multi-user VirtualLearning Environment

Online LearningInternet literateEmailingChattingSharing BrowsingDistributingManaging

Open Education Resources at Portal and Repository

Learning on DemandMetadata literateExchangingTaggingSelecting ValidatingCommentingDiscussing

Grid of Distributed Virtual Knowledge Centers

Learning MallGrid literateCommandingViewingApplyingCollaborative CreatingCollaborative ProducingReflecting

From Lonely-Learner to Collaborative -Creator

Creative Destruction of Learning Materials

from substitution to transition up to transformation