student managed fund 2016 ‐2017 - university of connecticut · 2017-05-09 · gild has fb slb v...
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Student Managed Fund 2016 ‐ 2017Graduate Fund Management TeamMarch 9 2017
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Wei Wang Priyanka Raja Azmath Rahiman Vikram Kaimal
THE GRADUATE FUND MANAGEMENT TEAM
Jeremy Hite Yuqi Han Tao Feng Vishal Page Pei‐ju Lee
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AGENDA1. Investment Philosophy & Strategy
2. Economic Outlook
3. Sector Allocation & Individual Stocks
4. Portfolio Performance & Risks
5. Case Studies
6. Summary and Future Plan
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Investment Philosophy & Strategy
Value Over GrowthStrong fundamentalsSound long‐term prospects
Bottom‐upSelling at a discountSupport with qualitative information and quantitative analysis
Sector Allocation Value political & economic outlook
CSR is EssentialAbove industry average ESG scores
Strategy 4
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Decision Making Process
Expected long term free cash flow yield / Safety MarginSound business model and management teamIndustry dynamics & Competitor dynamics
Buy Decision
Changes in underlying business/industryChanges in the market
Sell Decision
Bloomberg, Morningstar, Value Line, S&P NetAdvantage
Tools Utilized
Strategy 5
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US Economy in Recovery
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1/1/20
078/1/20
073/1/20
0810
/1/200
85/1/20
0912
/1/200
97/1/20
102/1/20
119/1/20
114/1/20
1211
/1/201
26/1/20
131/1/20
148/1/20
143/1/20
1510
/1/201
55/1/20
16
(%)
US Unemployment Rate
‐6.0
‐4.0
‐2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
3/1/20
0710
/1/200
75/1/20
0812
/1/200
87/1/20
092/1/20
109/1/20
104/1/20
1111
/1/201
16/1/20
121/1/20
138/1/20
133/1/20
1410
/1/201
45/1/20
1512
/1/201
57/1/20
16(%)
US GDP Growth Rate
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(%)
Federal Funds Rate
Unemployment rate falls (4.6%) Interest rate expected to increase in MarchGDP is growing
Economy 6
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Trend in the Main Sectors
Technology• Short term growth (cloud & big data)• Long term potential (IOT)
Financial Services• Deregulation (Dodd‐Frank)• Expanding technology drives profit
Industrials• 10% increase in defense spending• Expected increase in infrastructure spending
Energy•Crude oil price is expected to increase•Uncertainty in alternative energy sector
Healthcare•Aging demographics fuel spending escalating •Uncertainties with new healthcare policies
Consumer•Peaked US consumer confidence•Projected wage growth•Upcoming rate‐tightening cycle
Economy 7
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Sector Allocation
Energy10%
Consumer15%
Healthcare13%
Telecom14%
Financials13%
IT21%
Industrials14%
Allocation 8
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Individual Stocks
Allocation
Spring
Fall
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Individual Stock Weight
ETR, 3% SBUX, 6%GNTX, 3%
T, 9%
C, 7%
GILD, 4%
GOOG, 9%
SKX, 6%ABBV, 4%AMT, 5%REGN, 5%
LMT, 12%
V, 5%
HAS, 3%
SLB, 7%
FB, 7%BOFI, 6%
Allocation 10
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Individual Stock Performance
‐4.39% ‐0.27%
0.69%2.02% 2.20% 2.33% 2.38%
3.46%5.16%
5.63%7.25%
8.21% 9.29%10.52%
16.88%
22.90% 23.75%
‐5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
GILD HAS FB SLB V BOFI LMT ETR GOOG REGN SBUX T AMT ABBV C GNTX SKX
Allocation 11
GILD HAS FB SLB V BOFI LMT ETR GOOG REGN SBUX T AMT ABBV C GNTX SKXDays
Invested133 12 1 1 12 1 12 140 125 26 140 126 105 119 87 139 120
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Portfolio Performance Top 10 Allocation Weight GainLokheed Martin 12.43% 3.01%Alphabet 10.08% 5%AT&T 9.15% 6.75%Schlumberger 7.43% 2.38%Facebook 7.35% 1.39%Citigroup 7.05% 24%Starbucks 6.42% 7.50%Sketchers 5.97% 24%American Tower 5.31% 8%Regeneron 5.07% 5.80%Total (Avg) 76.26% 8.78%Top 5 Performers Weight GainSketchers 5.97% 23.75%Gentex 2.90% 22.93%Citigroup 7.05% 16.88%AbbVie 4.01% 10.52%American Tower 5.31% 9.29%Total (Avg) 25.24% 15.87%
MBA SMF Return S&P 500 Return
9.97% 11.33%
Portfolio 12
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Attribution Analysis: Benchmark S&P 500
Portfolio 13
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Our Portfolio Performs Better in Terms of Risk and Long Term Potential
Fall Spring S&P
No of Stocks 10 17 500
Sharpe 1.16 1.46 0.87
Profit Margin 14.68% 18.17% 12%
ROA 4.12% 9.64% 6%PE 14.7 19.33 20.99
Portfolio 14
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Purchase: $258.37 & $268.34
Purchase Dates: 2nd Feb & 28th Feb
Shares Held: 960
Position: $253k (12%)
Forward P/E: 18.94
Dividend Yield: 2.7%
Fair value: $ 324
Investment Thesis: Largest aerospace and defense company with well diversified product portfolio
: From missiles to fifth generation fighter aircraft (F‐35 ).
Strong order backlog of $100 billion including fresh orders worth $50 billion.
Political climate: Increased defense spending.
Strong performance: Trump administration’s intent to increase defense spending by $54billion
Overall geopolitical environment: Increased defense spending by US and Allies.
Defense: Lockheed Martin 4%
Case Study 15
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Financials: Citi Group Inc. (C:$59.06) 24%
Purchase: $49.53 & $59.62
Purchase Dates: 19th Oct & 28th Feb
Shares Held: 2373
Position: $ (6%)
Forward P/E: 11.57
Dividend Yield: 2.7%
Fair value: $ 68
Investment Thesis: Attractive valuation with Citi being 20% undervalued Unique global network with strong capital and liquidity to support
clients
Reasons for strong performance: Deregulation in Banking and Financial services (Expectation) Possible interest rate hike
Risk factors: Credit Quality may not be best in industry
Case Study 16
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Price pitched: $62.25
Pitch Date: 16‐Feb
Forward P/E: 11.93
Dividend Yield: 2.08%
Fair value: $75
Vetoed: AIG
Investment Thesis: American International Group has entered a reinsurance pact with National Indemnity Co. AIG's latest restructuring efforts Attractive valuation
Risk We Considered: The possibility that AIG have to incur additional asset write‐downs or reserve boosts. Revenue in 2016 continue to remain under pressure
Reason for veto: American International Group Inc. posted a $5.6 billion pretax charge to boost its claims
reserves, larger than expected and leading to one the company's worst quarterly results since the financial crisis.
Case Study 17
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Summary and Future Plan
Summary
Optimize allocation Evaluate current investments to Buy, Hold or Sell
Fully Invested 17 Positions
Balanced Sector
Allocation
Absolute Return:9.97%
• Investment Board, Dr. Ghosh, Dr. Rakotomavo & Laurel Grisamer
Acknowledgement
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Graduate Fund Management TeamMarch 2nd 2017
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Overweight on Telecom
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Fall Summary: Invested in 7 out of 10 industry sectors
8%6%
25%
11%16%
17%
17%
Financials Utilities
Telecom Consumer Staples
Healthcare Information Technology
Consumer Discretionary
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Sector allocation and stock selection
• Each manager was assigned one sector; selected one stock from sector assigned;• Stock Selection
• Bottom up approach—identify undervalued stocks;• Reviewed sector and industry report– company environment;
• Performance indicators• eg: US restaurants: comparable store sales; Airlines: revenue passenger miles etc
• Screened 2‐3 stocks;• Qualitative: business models; strategies; competitive advantage; investment opportunities.
• Quantitative: DCF; price multiples; price transactions in the market.• Made stock pitch decision.
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Procedure
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7 / 10 vote in 15% stop loss
Inform team of the stock pitch
Recommend the stock at meeting
Vote on the stock
Vote on the positions and 15% stop loss
Review stocks and update information
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Equity evaluation and selection process
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Best stock first
1. Investing based on value and political & economic outlook
2. During such uncertainty, invest in reliable and fundamentally strong companies
3. Not investing in a sector just for the sake of diversification
4. Focus is on individual stocks
5. Individual managers responsible for a sector
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Investment Style
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Shows that our allocation and selection were better in the Fall. We can explain this – election & shorter time after we selected stocks in the spring term
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This picture shows that we are less of a value investor
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We are undervalued against the benchmark while using P/FCF
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Holdings Summary
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Investment Style & Sector Analysis
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Correlation Matrix
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% Price growth over the holding period
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Risk vs. Reward
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Portfolio performance
Portfolio
Top 10 Allocation Weight GainLokheed Martin 12.43% 3.01%Alphabet 10.08% 5%AT&T 9.15% 6.75%Schlumberger 7.43% 2.38%Facebook 7.35% 1.39%Citigroup 7.05% 24%Starbucks 6.42% 7.50%Sketchers 5.97% 24%American Tower 5.31% 8%Regeneron 5.07% 5.80%Total (Avg) 76.26% 8.78%Top 5 Performers Weight GainGentex 2.90% 22.93%Sketchers 5.97% 20.68%Citigroup 7.05% 15.96%AbbVie 4.01% 10.51%American Tower 5.31% 9.29%Total (Avg) 25.24% 15.87%
MBA SMF Return ( Ann) S&P 500 Return (% Ann)
9.1% 12.95%
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Market Position
High Equity Valuation• Median company in S&P 500 reached
98th percentile of historic valuation– Goldman Sachs
• Boom of ETF (10 year CAGR 20%)
Cheap Debt• August 2016 ‐ $13.5 T worldwidedebt in negative interest
• June 2016 – 10 Year Treasury Yield all time low
Portfolio
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Risk Management
Risk Analysis
15% stop loss
Diversification Benefit
Dividend Yield??
Business Model Risk
Idiosyncratic Risk
Balance Sheet Risk
Economic & Political
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Learning from the SMF Program
Summary
CoursesSecurity Analysis
Valuation
Portfolio Management
PracticeResearch
Pitch
Vote
LearningEquity Research
Presenting
From Each Other
Fund Management