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Studies to Evaluate Value-Added Market Opportunities for North Dakota

Studies to Evaluate Value-Added Market Opportunities for North Dakota Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Ethanol and Other Biochemical Derivatives

Don Bari, Vice President, Consulting Edward Glatzer, Managing Director, Consulting Energy Development & Transmission Commission August 14, 2014 Bismarck, North Dakota 1

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APPENDIX B


Disclaimer

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This report presentation has been prepared for the sole benefit of Petroleo Brasileiro SA (“Petrobras”), i.e. Client. Neither the report, this presentation, nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of IHS. Any third party in possession of the report may not rely upon its conclusions. Possession of any IHS model does not carry with it the right of publication. IHS conducted this analysis and prepared this report utilizing reasonable care and skill in applying methods of analysis consistent with normal industry practice. All results are based on information available at the time of review. Changes in factors upon which the review is based could affect the results. Forecasts are inherently uncertain because of events or combinations of events that cannot reasonably be foreseen including the actions of government, individuals, third parties and competitors. NO IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE SHALL APPLY. Some of the information on which this report/presentation is based has been provided by others. IHS has utilized such information without verification unless specifically noted otherwise. IHS assumes no responsibility and accepts no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of and, to the extent permitted by law, shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies, or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained in this publication.


Who is IHS?

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• We are a public company (founded in the 1950s) and have a current revenue of over US $ 2 billion

• We help companies make informed decisions by providing independent: – industry insight – knowledge – data & analysis


Transportation

Aerospace & Defense

Agriculture

Construction

Shipping

Electronics & Telecom Government

Metals & Mining

Healthcare

Power & Utilities

Financial

Military & Security

Energy Oil & Gas

Consumer & Retail

IHS Chemical

Automotive

IHS Chemical

IHS Has Substantial Industry Integration

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We have 9000 staff in 30 countries

Presenter

Presentation Notes

IHS Chemical in the header – all pages


Oil, Gas Production

Hydrocarbon Feed

Oil Refining and Gas Processing

Monomer/Base Chemicals

Separation, Conversion

Plastics & Rubber

Polymerization

Derivatives & Intermediates

Conversion

Converters: Tires and Other Fabricated OEM Parts

Manufactured Goods

Retail Customers

We Think Value Chains: Vertically & Horizontally

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Chemical industry development starts here


The Fabricated Products are Diverse and Familiar

Ethylene

LLDPE

PVCPolystyrene/ABS

PET/Ethylene Glycol

Polyethylene

HDPELDPE

POLYPROPYLENE

POLYURETHANEABS

ACRYLICSSYNTHETIC MATERIALS

NYLONS

POLYCARBONATEPropylene

Butylenes & Butadiene

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Petrochemical Building Block Chemicals • Ethylene, propylene, butylenes, represent three of the

seven basic “building blocks” in the global petrochemical industry

• NGLs (ethane, propane and butanes) are the raw material precursors to these building block chemicals

Most petrochemical derivatives can be traced back to one or more of these building blocks

Crude Oil and Natural Gas

Petrochemicals & Derivatives

Ben

zene

Tolu

ene

Xyl

enes

Met

hane

C4

Hyd

roca

rbon

s

Eth

ylen

e

Pro

pyle

ne

Eth

ylen

e

Pro

pyle

ne

But

ylen

es

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The Feedstock-Product Value Chain To be Advantaged here, You Need to be Advantaged here Ethane,

Propane, Butanes

Intermediate Chemicals

Commodities Specialties

End-Use & Fabricated Products

NGLs

Gas Processor for (Y-cut) Pipeline

Merchant

Gas Processor for (Y-cut) Contracted

Flared Unlikely Recovered by

Gas Processors

Biomass

Ethanol

Butanol Basic Bio Chemicals

Bio-based Chemistry is More Complex

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Fundamentally, the Industry Cost Curve Dictates Success

CUMULATIVE INDUSTRY CAPACITY

CO

ST O

F PR

OD

UC

TIO

N

DEMAND

PRODUCTION PLANTS

PRIC

E P

OIN

T Need to be Here, to get Here

Have Advantages along the Value Chain: • Low Cost Feedstock • Competitive Production Costs • Good Logistical Proximity to the Market

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

When chemical producers develop their business plans leading to raising financing and/or valuations, product price and volume forecast are the critical elements. This is true for mature and developing companies such as for renewable chemicals. A fundamental tool for doing so is classic industry cost curve. Here the intersection of industry demand with the incremental high cost producer sets the market price point. The specific price will be the high cost producer plus a margin (where magnitude depends on the current industry supply and demand balance).


Adding Value to the Bakken NGLs

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Why is there an Opportunity to Add Value to the Bakken’s Hydrocarbons

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Methane Ethane

(Fuel Gas)

Ethane, Propane, Butane, Light

Naphtha (NGL)

Global Gas Demand (2013)

120 TCF

Petrochemical Industry 25% Oil, coal and

methane- based feedstocks make

up the rest


PP Resin

HDPE Resin

PB Rubber

PIB Rubber

For the Consumer,

Automotive, Construction

Industries

The Likely Value-Add Opportunities for the Bakken

Ethane, Propane, Butanes




Currently to Pipeline and Fuels

n-butane C4

Isobutane C4

Propane C3

Ethane C2

Propylene

Ethylene

Butadiene

Isobutylene

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Bakken NGL is Expected to Provide an Advantaged Feedstock Position

NGL supply demand price outlook cases are forecast to give a Bakken-based NGLs a strong feedstock to derivative chemical plants

Even with IHS’ conservative estimates, the availability situation for competitive-scale petrochemical plant is promising

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Product and Feedstock Prices Setting Mechanisms for North Dakota

ND New Chemical Potential

Production

East North Central Product Demand Center

Price Setting Merchant

Market for NGLs

Less Freight = ND NGL Feedstock

Prices

Less Freight and Handling = ND Petrochemical Product Prices

Conventional Petrochemical

Production Hub

Price Setting: Merchant Market for Petrochemicals

& Polymers

Plus Freight = E.N. Central End-Use Product Prices

Less Freight = ND Product Prices

Off-Shore (Export) Demand Market

Less Freight = ND Product

Prices

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Production Hub

Toronto

Montreal Ottawa New

England

Mid Atlantic

South Atlantic

East South Central

East North Central

West North Central

West South Central

Mountain

Pacific 4%

21%

14%

6%

3% 6%

1% 4%

35%

East Canada 5%

Wet Canada 1% Potential Production Hub

More than half of the PE consumption in US is within reach of a North Dakota Plant

Most of the production is centered in the Gulf Cost

POLYETHYLENE

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The Proximity Situation is the Same for Other Commodity Polymers

POLYBUTADIENE RUBBER

POLYPROPYLENE

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Ethane, Propane, Butanes




The Value of Basic Feedstock Typically Increases Down the Supply Chain

Ethane Ethylene HDPE

Volume (T) 1 1.29 1.30

Value ($/T) 197 (27c/gal) 938 1507

-------- Combined Ethane Equivalent ----------------

Value in product ($/T) 197 727 1157

Capacity (KT/YR) 27,500 bpd 404 400 (880 mm lb/yr)

Investment (MM USD) 940 310

Return IRR (%) 21% 24%

Capital and operating cost at each step generate the value increase

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Advantages for the North Dakota Translate in Value-Add Opportunities

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Developing Technologies

Mature Technology Multiple Products

Ethylene & HDPE

Mature Technology Single Product

Butadiene % PBR

Butadiene Merchant

Propylene

& PP

Propylene Merchant

Ethylene & MEG

Developing Halogenation Technology for:

BDE PBR PP & Iso Butylene Propylene MTBE


NGLs to Chemicals: Capacity and Capital Costs – North Dakota - 2020 Basis

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KMT Bbl/dayEthane Feed - HDPE 520.90 27781Ethane Feed - MEG 297.90 15888Propane Feed - PDH 563.30 21166Propane Feed - Halogenation 497.30 18686n-Butane Feed - BDH 512.40 16769n-Butane Feed - Halogenation 348.10 11392i-butane - BDH 152.50 4852i-butane - Halogenation 134.70 4286

NGL - Feed Requirements

Capacity, kMT Capital, USMM$Ethane Cracker - HDPE 404.00 939.00Ethane Cracker - MEG 231.00 635.00HDPE 400.00 309.00EO 304.00 727.00MEG 400.00 197.00Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) 467.00 1191.00Propane Halogenation 467.00 758.00Polypropylene ICP 500.00 487.00n-Butane Dehydrogenation (BDH) 300.00 1460.00n-Butane Halogenation 336.00 491.00Oxo-D 300.00 708.00Polybutadiene (PBR) 100.00 286.00Isobutane Dehydrogenation 130.00 247.00Isobutane Halogenation 130.00 225.00MTBE via Isobutylene 200.00 28.00

NGL


Conclusions

Feasible opportunities for the development of NGL-based chemical derivative look promising

There should not be any particular environmental or permitting issues for the process technologies selected if Good Engineering Design and HAZOP principles are followed. Note that the Halogenation technology will need to be designed with specific attention to bromine handling and processing.

Growth in the United States demand and competitive cost exports will drive the need for significant production capacity (supply) additions of commodity chemicals and polymers

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Conclusions (continued)

Ethane in the U.S. will remain in an oversupply situation due to the associated supply from shale-based oil and gas that will drive North Dakota post-2020 net back prices to historic low values

North Dakota is expected to have an ample supply of NGLs (ethane, propane and butane)

North Dakota will have a long-term “Advantaged feedstock” position of NGLs the U.S. Gulf Coast and Asia/Europe

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∞ Project and business development “success” can yield a variety of sustainable benefits to North Dakota State (residents) and 3rd party sponsors and developers

To be successful, North Dakota must aggressively solicit world-class private (chemical) industry participants/sponsors on a global basis who can bring proven project development expertise, financial strength, chemical process technology and access to customer marketing channels and customers

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Participants can be along the value chain e.g., from NGL processors considering value-add downstream investment to end-user part fabricators interested back integration to low cost secure feedstock supply

Monitoring competitor actions in the U.S. and Western Canada is necessary as the rapid pace of shale-based project (global) interest and development continues

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Cautions

Investment (cost and labor resources) are very significant to construct downstream chemical production plants (and build their associated businesses)

Project development and implementation (including market entry) will have challenges

This Project will be forging new ground in North Dakota, thus project development and implementation must be done according to a well-defined and very robust roadmap, with an iterative loop for lessons learned along the way.

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