study case : unfccc ; cop19

7/27/2019 Study Case : UNFCCC ; COP19

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Dear Delegates,

First of all, let me introduce myself. My name is Kurniawan Arif Wicaksono and I, here, am going

to be your director of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changes COP -19. It isa great honour for me to accompany all of the delegates for the three days of conferences in this

E-MUN. I definitely cant wait to see your performances, your splendid skills of public speaking,

debating and any other which obviously will bring the conferences in such an unforgettable

experience. Hopefully, by what we are going to do through this E-MUN, it could be a step stone

to build up our skill of diplomacy and give us a path to develop model united nations which will

bring a great benefit for us and for this country in the future.

A further explanation of myself, I am a student in University of Indonesia. I am studying at the

faculty of Law and I have placed my interest in transnational law, especially for the public

international law. Besides studying, I also love to get involved in many activities and

organizations in campus. I am a member of Asian Law Students Association, Internal Law Moot

Court Society, Resimen Mahasiswa of University of Indonesia and particularly I am a secretary

general of Serambi (Senantiasa Ramah Bernuansa Islam), which is a religious organization in the

Faculty of Law of University of Indonesia. This E-MUN is the first of my experiences in model

united nations activities and I want to continue in such an activity for I have the same

excitements and thrills with all of you participating in this competition.

This year United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) will bring

Anticipation to The Sinking of Island States in the Future (which formed by small states island

and archipelagic states) due to the Effect of Global Warming as the topic area to be discussed in

E-Model United Nations 2011 conference. By researching on this issue, I hope that it will giveyou a sensibility of what is going on around the globe as well as bring a strong desire to learn

and join future model united nations conference at national and international level. The UNFCC

team, have researched thoroughly and extensively on this issue, but there are many spaces left

for new proposal of ideas to resolve this issue. There are many facts and theories that havent

covered yet on the study guide, but may be it will be found while you research your country

position. I look forward for a far-fetched and specific solution on the resolution and also great

representation of countries stance from each of delegates. Please, dont hesitate to ask me

anything that you mightnt understand either on the issue or its study guide. See you on the

conference, delegates! Be prepared!


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Best Regards,

Kurniawan Arif Wicaksono

Director of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP - 19

ALSA 15th National English Competition E-Model United Nations 2011.

[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]


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Conference of the Parties 19 : Anticipation to The Sinking of

Island States in the Future

Introduction

Dear all delegates of the ALSA E-COMP 2011,

On behalf of the excellent staffs that make up the E-Comp Model United Nations, I would like to

officially welcome you to the United Nations Framework on Convention of Climate Change

(UNFCCC). By joining this conference, you will have an outstanding educational experience as a

delegate from your own country to deal with the most fascinating issue, the effect of global

warming: anticipation to the sinking of Island States in the future.

History of the Committee

1

In 1992, 194 countries joined an international treaty which is called the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to begin to consider what can be done to

reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. The

ultimate objective of the Convention is to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the

atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.2

On 11 December 1997, UNFCC was complemented by the Kyoto Protocol which has 192 Parties.

The major distinction between the two, however, is that while the Convention encouraged

industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so.3 Under

1 http://www.igeo.pt/gdr/img/Prek/Prek_Fig%207b_unfccc.jpg

2 http://unfccc.int/press/fact_sheets/items/4991.php



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this treaty, 37 industrialised countries and the European Community have committed to

reducing their emissions by an average of 5 percent by 2012 against 1990 levels. For this group

of countries, reductions of 11% are projected for the first Kyoto commitment period from 2008

to 2012, provided policies and measures planned by these countries are put in place.4

Since the adoption of the Convention, Parties have continued to negotiate in order to agree ondecisions and conclusions that will advance its implementation. They have done so first in the

INC, and then, since the Conventions entry into force, in the Conference of the Parties (COP) and

its subsidiary bodies, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and

the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI).

History and Discussion of the problems

The world we live nowadays is almost in a very different condition from the past decades.

We can easily notice how the temperature is getting hotter and hotter. The weather becomes

difficult to be predicted. Even we can hardly believe to the weather forecast program since

predicting weather seems to be impossible. We find the sun shines brightly in a clear blue sky,

but an hour later hard rains just come from nowhere. The climates changes drastically in most

of the nations around the globe. The period of each season is either become shorter or longer

than usual. In a tropical country, the dry season becomes longer and its average temperature

increase every year. When it comes to wet season, it only have short period of time but the rain

becomes much harder.

Those are only small things we face in our daily life; however, such a condition will

definitely bring a big impact if it continuously happens. For an agricultural country, the

unpredictable climates will obviously trouble the farmers to grow their seeds. In a long period

of time, it will lead to another disaster such as starvation across the country due to lack of foods.Furthermore, since the temperature on the earth increase, the ice on the earth is melting day by

day. As a result, the sea level increases. What the worst can we imagine than the sinking of

islands regarding the increasing of sea level in all over the world? Unfortunately, this disaster

which is threatening the people and the existence of island states is already happened.

The cause of all above situations mentioned above is a phenomenon called global

warming. Global warming is a process of increasing average temperature on the earths surface,

sea and atmosphere. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that its because

of the increasing concentration of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere which leads to this

condition. When Carbon Monoxide (CO), which is mostly produced from any means oftransportation and factory, comes to the ozone layer, it will produce CO 2 by decomposition of

chemical compound of ozone (O3). Through this process, the ozone layer gradually becomes

thinner. The ozone layer can no longer reduce ultraviolet ray and ray of sunlight penetrating the

atmosphere of the earth. As can be predicted, the temperature of the earth increase and this

condition is being worsened by the concentration of CO2 which hold the ray back inside the

earths atmosphere.5

4Ibid.

5 This process is called the greenhouse effect.


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6 7

Current Situation

The years 2000 through 2009 are marked as the warmest ever in the history of the

Earth based on data supplied by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

scientists.8 In that period of year, 2005 was actually the warmest year ever recorded. 2009 was

also the second warmest temperature recorded since such records were kept initiating in 1880.9Although 2008 was the coolest year recorded during the last decade and climate related results

from this year tend to fly in the face of general global warming predictions and philosophies, the

consensus remains that the effects of global warming are now manifest.

6 The Keliing Curve of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measured at Mauna Loa Observatory

7 http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Greenhouse_Effect_png

8 http://globalwarming.com/2010/05/climate-change-headlines-from-2000-to-2009/

9Ibid.


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Current evidence of global warming includes the widespread retreat of glaciers on 5

continents. For example:

The ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro may be gone in 20 years. About 1/3 ofKilimanjaro's ice field has disappeared in the last 12 years and 82% of it has

vanished since it was first mapped in 1912.

Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is thinning. Massive Antarctic ice sheets have collapsed into the sea with alarming

rapidity.

As already said before, one of the effects of global warming is the raising of sea level. Sincethe temperature on the earth increase day by day, the ice in the arctic and Antarctica is melting.

The sea level around the globe has increased up to 10-25 cm (4-10 inch) in the 20th century.

According to the scientists of IPCC, a further increasing of sea level is about to happen up to 9-

88 cm (4-35 inch) in the 21stcentury.

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10 NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day: 2009 Ends Warmest Decade on Record

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42392

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Bruce C. Douglas (1997). "Global Sea Rise: A Redetermination". Surveys in Geophysics18: 279292.DOI:10.1023/A:1006544227856


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The effect of oceans rising up to 14 m has been illustrated online by British software

engineer Alex Tingle. He has used National Aeronautics and Space Administration data and

Google Earth technology:

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Due to the raising of sea level, a lot of islands have submerged below the sea surface. Here

are some of the recent data along with its current conditions:

1. Lohachara, India. 10.000 people had lived there before the island sank.

2. Bedford Island, Kabasgadi, and Suparibhanga 6.000 families have been evacuated

from those islands.

3. Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, US 13 islands have already gone.

4. Kiribati 3 rocks have sunk and for about 30 islands are sinking now. Ironically,

107.817 people have their own fate threathened.

5. Half of Bhola Island, Bangladesh, have a permanent flood where 500.000 people livethere.

6. Tuvalu 12.000 people without drinkable water

7. Ghoramana, near India2/3 area of the island sank in 2006 and 7.000 people had been

relocated

8. Maldives it has 369.031 citizen and the president want to relocate its entire citizen

9. Marshall Islands archipelagos 60.000 people

10. Tonga116.921 people

11. Vanuatu211.971 people, some of them have been evacuated

12. Solomon Island archipelagos566.842 people

12 Florida, USA http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=27.2839,-80.7275&z=10&m=14&t=1


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Case Studies

1. Tuvalu

Tuvalu comprises nine coral atolls between Australia and Hawaii. Their highest point is 5

meters (15 feet) above seal level. As sea level has risen, Tuvalu has experienced lowlandflooding. Saltwater intrusion is adversely affecting drinking water and food production. Tuvalu's

leaders predict that the nation will be submerged in 50 years. In March 2002, the country's

prime minister appealed to Australia and New Zealand to provide homes for his people if his

country is washed away, but the plight of this nation is being ignored.

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2. Vanuatu

The archipelago, strung across two million square miles of the Pacific, is home to 92,500

people. Most of them live on the densely populated main atoll, called Tarawa, a U-shaped chain

of islets that are surrounding a central lagoon. The beaches on Tarawa, an island nation which is

pancake-flat and barely 500 yards wide, are so eroded that sand has been imported from

Australia. Dozens of families have been forced to move, dismantling their wooden huts piece by

piece and reassembling them further back from the water. Now the population is being

squeezed into an ever narrower strip of land between the lagoon and the Pacific.

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13 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:LocationTuvalu.png

14 http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bild:Vanuatu-Pos.png


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The effects of climate change and rising sea levels can be seen on many islands in Vanuatu.

In 1993, Australian scientists set up the Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project. They

recorded the sea level at 12 points in the South Pacific and detected a rise of, on average, 6mm

per year, or 7.8cm (3.1 inches) in total. Vanuatu's Meteorological Department monitors the

number of storms that have hit the nation since 1941. In the Forties, says the department's

head, Jotham Napat, the number in their records was five, but in the past few years, the average

has been 15.

3. Maldives

The country is located south of India's Lakshadweep islands, and about 435 miles south-

west of Sri Lanka. Twenty-six coralline are spread across the top of an undersea volcanic ridge

for 960 kilometers, running from north to south. Some of the larger atolls are 50 kilometers long

and 30 km wide. The 1,190 islands that make up the rest of the country are no larger than 8

kilometers.15

The Maldives, which is only 8 feet above sea level at its highest point, are comprised of

nearby 1200 islands and atolls in the Indian Ocean. As global warming causes the polar ice caps

melt and sea levels to rise, the Maldives' entire existence is in jeopardy. Along with rising sea

levels, increased beach erosion, more powerful storms, higher storm surges, and threats to

biodiversity are among the major threatens to the Maldives due to climate change over the

coming decades.16

Rising sea levels also threaten the country's tourism-dependent economy. Tourism

accounts for 28 percent of the country's GDP and for more than 60 percent of the Maldives'

foreign exchange. The vast majority of government revenue (approximately 90 percent) comes

from import duties and tourism-related taxes.17

15 "Waiving or Drowning," The Economist, December 19, 2006, Vol. 381, Iss. 8509, p. 97.

16 http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/620.htm17 https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/mv.html


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Furthermore, rising ocean levels threaten the entire existence of the Maldives. In turn, the

ocean threatens the habitat of every human, plant, and land animal in the country. Humans

could be easily relocated to other neighboring countries, but preventing bio-diversity and

species loss would be difficult. Cataloging each animal and plant in the country would be costly

and time-consuming. Furthermore, introducing those plants and animals to a new ecosystem

could also be problematic and upset the natural balance of that ecosystem. The newly-

introduced plants and animals could become invasive or the domestic plants and animals could

eradicate those "rescued" from the sinking Maldives.

Climate Change and rising ocean levels is an issue that will affect the entire world. At the

same time, the dispute has the potential to become a multilateral issue. As the rising ocean

levels threaten the Maldives, the countrys residents will be forced to move to other countries,

such as India or Sri Lanka. Any conflict within the Maldives could be transferred to these

countries. Additionally, it is possible that the Maldives would seek to be compensated by

polluting countries for the loss of their islands. However it is unclear whether the Maldives

would seek new sovereign territory elsewhere. Additionally, it is unclear whether the Maldiveswould seek that territory in neighboring countries, or elsewhere, such as in countries that

contributed to the climate change in the first place, such as the United States or China.

Past International Actions

To overcome this terrible form of nature, Parties of the UNFCCC launched a new round of

negotiations at COP 1 which took place in Berlin, on March until April 1995 to strengthen the

commitments of Annex I Parties. These negotiations resulted in the adoption of the Kyoto

Protocol at COP 3 in Kyoto, December 1997.

At COP 4 (Buenos Aires, November 1998), Parties adopted the so-called "Buenos Aires Planof Action", setting out a programme of work both to advance the implementation of the

Convention and to flesh out the operational details of the Kyoto Protocol. This programme of

work was conducted in the subsidiary bodies and at COP 5 (Bonn, October/November 1999),

with a deadline of COP 6 (The Hague, November 2000). At COP 6 part II (Bonn, July 2001),

Parties finally succeeded in adopting the Bonn Agreements on the Implementation of the

Buenos Aires Plan of Action, registering political agreement on key issues under the Buenos

Aires Plan of Action. Up until now, UNFCCC has been continuing the COP agenda to face the

threat of global warming and climate changes.

It is also noted that UNFCCC has resulted not less than 18 documents and 15 decisions up tothe present. The documents are generally discussed about the protections of global climate for

present and future generations; information on the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on

Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; physical and socio-

economic trends in climate-related risks and extreme events; analysis of possible means to

reach emission reduction targets and of relevant methodological issues; information on global

warming potentials; and cooperation with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In order to implement the content of those documents, the 15 decisions made by UNFCC

are mainly talking about the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCC; Scientific, technical

and socio-economic aspects of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change,

and scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of mitigation; guidance to an entity

entrusted with the operation of the financial mechanism of the Convention for the operation of


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the Special Climate Change Fund; and five-year programme of work of the Subsidiary Body for

Scientific and Technological Advice on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.

Proposed Solutions

The effect of global warming resulting the rise of sea levels is not only becomes a problemfor Island States or archipelagic States. Although it is clear that Island States and archipelagic

States pose more danger regarding to the existences of their very nations, the other states

obviously cant pretend to not share the problems. Global Warming is one of the most

fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity.18 As can be seen on the impacts of global

warming which are mentioned above, the word global on global warming represents global

threat to all nations around the globe.

Anticipation to the drowning of island states and archipelagic states must become the first

priority in the near future. However, it is also reminded that eradicating global warming needs

more efforts of many years. Thats why the causes of global warmin g are matters to be dealt

with. Stringent emission reductions are required to keep global temperature increases and

corresponding climate change impacts as low as possible.19

This problem is complex and multi-faceted; it involves social, political, and economic

factors. I encourage you to research a variety of solution ideas and present them to the

committee. Please do not limit yourself to those presented above.

Bloc Positions

Western Bloc

This western bloc, which consists of most European countries including USA and Canada, is animportant part to deal with the problems. They have the scientists and technologies to get the

latest research on impact of global warming. Even some of the countries have the ability to build

artificial islands, reclamation of their beach, etc.

Asian and Pacific Bloc

The Asian and Pacific Bloc is currently dealing with the problem of anticipation of sinking island

due to the rising of sea level caused by global warming. Some other states have to be burdened

by the threatened island states since its people migrate to any near country. Ironically, this bloc

serves the smallest role to the cause of global warming in term of carbon monoxide emission as

one of the cause of global warming.


19Ibid.


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QARMAS (Question a Resolution Must Answer)

1. If your country is in danger of losing its territory due to the problem discussed inthis conference, what are the possible solutions to maintain the existence of your

country? What are the most essential needs of the island states countries to

prevent the sinking of their territorry or to reduce the loss when their island havebeen sunk ?

2. If your country has the technologies to help any states facing the danger of sinkingof their island(s), how would your country give assistance to them?

3. What are the impacts of sinking island(s) regarding their borders, their territoriesof one country to the other, the citizenship of their people, their legal system and

the impact in economy, also in the destination countries of the refugee from the

sinking island states? If the arrival of these refugees in their destination countries

will result in a conflict due to the inability of state to accomodate these refugees,

how can you solve such a case to be happened or when it is already happened ?4. What are the best technologies which can be applied to solve this problem ? Does

your country have that technology ?

5. Who has the access to use any natural resources from the sinking island(s)?6. What are the most effective and efficient ways to reduce global warming process

and all of its impacts? What are the most possible way to reduce, to prevent or

even to eliminate the possibility of the single event of global warming to be

happened, such as the melting of West Antartic Iceland Sheet and Greenland ?Suggestion for Further Research

To help you in conducting your research, we really encourage you to open some website

related to the effect of global warming: anticipation to the sinking of island states in the future al

as we provided below and dont forget to research your countrys stance to global warming and

its view on the sinking of small island states :

http://globalwarming.com/2010/05/climate-change-headlines-from-2000-to-2009/

http://unfccc.int/

http://www.oceana.org/climate/impacts/rising-seas/

http://www.nwf.org/sealevelrise/chesapeake.cfm

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/03/asia/pacific.php

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnB362707.html
http://globalwarming.com/2010/05/climate-change-headlines-from-2000-to-2009/http://globalwarming.com/2010/05/climate-change-headlines-from-2000-to-2009/http://unfccc.int/http://unfccc.int/http://www.oceana.org/climate/impacts/rising-seas/http://www.oceana.org/climate/impacts/rising-seas/http://www.nwf.org/sealevelrise/chesapeake.cfmhttp://www.nwf.org/sealevelrise/chesapeake.cfmhttp://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/03/asia/pacific.phphttp://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/03/asia/pacific.phphttp://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnB362707.htmlhttp://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnB362707.htmlhttp://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnB362707.htmlhttp://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/03/asia/pacific.phphttp://www.nwf.org/sealevelrise/chesapeake.cfmhttp://www.oceana.org/climate/impacts/rising-seas/http://unfccc.int/http://globalwarming.com/2010/05/climate-change-headlines-from-2000-to-2009/

study case : unfccc ; cop19

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