submerged fiscal bombs - in.gov · in nuvo, “35 years ago when carson worked in the office of...

Politics Indiana V14 N19

By MORTON J. MARCUS INDIANAPOLIS-TheIndianaDepartmentofLocalGovernmentFinance(DLGF)issueda“Citizens’GuidetoPropertyTaxes”onNovember20ththisyear.Thatdocu-

mentcontainsthefollowingpara-graph: “Whatfactorscontributetopropertytaxincreases?Lo-calspendingisthereasonforpropertytaxincreases–orde-creases – depending on local fiscal management.Otherfactorsthatcontributedtoincreasesduringthe2006Pay2007cycleincludethe

“My first reaction: it’s over. We can all start moving forward.” - Republican Muncie Mayor-elect Sharon McShurley, who won the recount Wednesday when 19 absentee ballots were thrown out

See Page 3

Submerged fiscal bombs

Thursday, Dec. 20, 2007

We grew up as a city with Julia CarsonCongresswoman helpedbreak down politicalbarriers in a racist cityBy BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS-Inapoliticalsense,JuliaCarson’sgreatestlegacyisthatsheestablishednewmilepostsforIndiana’scapitalcity.Fromadiversitystandpoint,Indianapolismaturedwiththecongresswoman. WhensheattendedCrispusAttucksHighSchool,thebasketballteamledbyOscarRobertsoncouldn’tevenplaykidsfromlocalwhitehighschools.TheyhadtogotoplaceslikeSmithville.Thereweremanyestab-lishmentsfromrestaurantstoclubsthatwouldn’tserveablackmanorwoman.LikemuchofIndiana, Jim Crow could easily find an address in the North. While black politicians could find their way to the city coun-cilandthelegislature,thebigplums-mayor,MemberofCongress,U.S.Senator,governor-seemeddistant. ThatallbegantochangewithCarsonannouncing

sheintendedtorunforCongresswhenAndyJacobsJr.decidedtoretirein1996.SomeintheDemocraticPartyestablishmenttoldhertheseatwasunattainable.FormerstatechairwomanAnnDeLaneywassupposedtobetheestablishmentchoice.ButitwasCarsonwhoconsolidatedthesupportoftheMarionCounty

Rep. Carson wept during this cere-mony where civil rights pioneer Rosa Parks was honored with the Con-gressional Gold Medal. Carson died on Dec. 15 of lung cancer. (C-Span Photo)

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eliminationoftheinventorytaxandtheonsetoftheannualadjustmentprocess,alsoknownas‘trending’.” Got that? Propertytaxesriseor fall because of local fiscal manage-ment.Thatisnotevenahalf-truth.Propertytaxesriseandfallbecauseofpoliciesputinplacebythestatelegislature.Thelegislaturedecidedtoeliminatetheinventorytax.Thelegislatureautho-rizedtrendingandDLGFmonitoredit.Thelegisla-tureincreasesordecreasesthedeductionsandexemptionstoassessedvalues.Thatsamebodydecideshowmuchmoneyflows from the state’sgeneralfundtopropertytaxreplacementcreditsandhome-steadcredits.Thelegislatureissuesunfundedman-dates. DLGFisanarmofanadministrationthatseekstoplacelocalgovernmentsinaspend-ingstraightjacket.Thegovernorhasproposedthat“Totallocalspendingcannotgrowfasterthanacounty’saveragepersonalincomegrowthoverasix-yearperiod,unlessapprovedbytaxpayersinareferendum.”Inaddi-tion,“TheTaxBoardineachcountymustreviewandapprovespendingplansofalltaxingunits.” Wehavenotheardmuchabouttheseproposals,buttheyaresubmergedbombsinthewatersoflocaldemocraticprocesses. The CountyTaxBoardwilloverseethespendingofallcities,towns,schoolscorporations,librarydistricts,countygovernment,andanyothergovernmentalunits.Whositsonsuchboards?Theyarepeopleap-pointed by elected officials, but none

iselectedtotheTaxBoardbythepublic. They will be the hidden final arbitersofdecisionstoimproveourschools,parks,andpolice. Plus,theamountthatcanbespentbyallgovernmentalunitsinyourcountycanincreasebyonlytheaveragegrowthofpersonalincomeoverasix-yearperiod.Atbest,themostrecentpersonalincomedataare

nearlytwoyearsbehindthetimes.Thismeansyourcountywillbeconstrainedbychangesinalaggingnumberthat reflects the pastandhaslittletodowiththeneedsandaspira-tionsoftoday. Thelatestdataarefor2005andshowarangeofsix-yeargrowthfrom6.9%(HamiltonCounty)to1.5%(WhiteCounty).Whatofthesimpleneedto

paygovernmentemployeesfairwagesandkeepupwithtechnologyinWhiteCounty? Personal income is notameasureoftheabilityofacounty’sresidentstosupportlocalgovernment.Itisnotthesumoftheincomereal-izedbythosewholiveinthecounty.Itleavesoutincomefrompensionsandcapitalgains.Astheserise,shouldn’titbepossibletoincreaselo-calspending? Personalincomeincludescurrent payments for benefits citizens maynotrealizeanytimesoonoreverintheirlives.Forexample,themoneyyouandyouremployerputintoaretirementprogramisincludedinper-sonalincome.Butitmaybedecadesbeforeyougettospendthatmoney.Whyshoulditbecountedaspartofyourcounty’sabilitytosupportlocal

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 20, 2007

DLGF Commissioner Cheryl Musgrave: seeking a local straight jacket? (HPI photo by Brian A. Howey)


DemocratsanddefeatedDeLaney49-31percent.Atonepoint,Carsonsaid,“IamnotyourAfrican-Americancandidate.IamtheDemocraticcandidateforCongress.Idon’t allow opponents to stereotype me and confine me to acertainsegmentofthepopulation.” Thatfall,shetookonStateSen.VirginiaBlankenbakerandwona53-45percentvictorydespitebeingout-spent$638,000to$572,000.Withtheold10thCDabout30percentAfrican-American,Carsonbecameone of the first black membersofCongresstorepresentamajoritywhitedistrict.Shewoulddeclare,“Thisisawonder-fulcity.Alotofpeopleseeyoubeyondthecolorofyourskin.That’sbecomepassé.” Yet,inhertoughestelectionchallenge-her2002campaignagainstRepublicanBroseMcVey-sheusedtheracecardandstormedoffateleviseddebateplatform,accusingMcVeyof“racialpolarization”afterhiscampaignusedgrainy,distortedimagesofherinTVads.Itwasatime-testedmaneuvertoigniteherbase.Shewouldsay,“Wewereaccustomedtonegativecampaigns.That’showtheyalwaystrytobeatme.” “They” never did. Carson finished 26-0 in a careerthatbeganintheIndianaHousein1972-agrand

arcofaccomplishmentforasinglewelfaremotherfromasegregatedNorthernschoolwhoendedhercareerinthecitadelofdemocracyattheU.S.Capitol. ThemachineJuliapresidedover-dubbed“TheCarsonShow”bytheWallStreetJournal-becameoneofthebestperformingpoliticalorganizationsinIndiana.Ithadtheabilitytomakeorbreakmayorsandlegislators.

WithCarsonsufferingfromterminallungcancer,herma-chinewentAWOLduringthedefeatofIndianapolisMayorBartPetersonlastmonth. In the Indiana House,shehadconsider-able influence over other members.OneDemocraticHouseleaderrecalledhowJuliasatbehindStateRep.SkinnyAlexander,whooftenappearedinthechamberdrunk.“Whenhewouldgetuptospeak,shewouldgrabhimfrombehindandpullhimbacktohisseat,”hesaid. Sheoperatedas

aneffectiveurbanpartyboss,atonepointsteppingintoadmonishDemocraticcitycouncilmemberswhohadhelped defeat an ordinance that would provide benefits for gaysandlesbians.OnaSaturdaymorning,Carsoncon-venedcouncilmenandjudges,precinctworkersandlegisla-tors.“Ithinky’allreadingthewrongpolls,”Carsonbluntlytoldtheassemblage.“IseetheerosionoftheDemocraticParty,whichmakesmenervous.Peoplewantsomebodywhowillstandupfortheirownconvictions.” RobertFerguson,presidentofIndianaBlackPride,describedthatmemorablemorning:“Itwasverypowerful;veryimpromptuanditkindofrumpledpeople’sfeathers.I

governmenttoday? Funds put into benefit packages by your employer, likeheathinsurance,arealsocountedaspartofpersonalincome,evenifyoudonottakeadvantageofthem.Un-spent health insurance premiums become profits for share-holdersofinsurancestock.Dotheyliveinyourcounty? If the governor wantstoassessacounty’sabil-itytopayforlocalservices,heshouldconsideradjustedgrossincomeasreportedontheIndianaindividualincometaxform.AllwehavetodoisgettheDepartmentofRev-enuetomakethatnumberavailableinatimelyfashiontoallcitizens.Darewedream? Tospendmorethanthegovernor’ssix-yearaver-ageofpersonalincomegrowth,acountycouldhaveareferendum.Wealreadyhavelocalelectionstoputpeoplein office so that spending decisions can be made through

informeddiscussion.Areferendumonlyopensthedoorsforhighlyimpassioned,uninformedandexpensivecon-tests. The fiscal problems of Indiana are not based solely ontheantiquatedaspectsofourlocalgovernments.Thosecontribute,buttheyarenottherootofourtroubles.Tocorrectourproblems,weneedlegislatorswhowillendtheceaselessmanipulationoftaxesasfavorsforfriendsandasbribesforanignorantelectorate. Newchampionsofreasonandreformneedtowinintheprimariesandknockouttheoldguardinthenextgeneralelection.vMr. Marcus is an economist, writer, and speaker formerly with the Kelley School of Business at Indi-ana University.

Julia Carson,from page 1


thinkitmadepeoplestopandthink.”Theordinancewouldpasswhentheissuecameupagainseveralmonthslater. Therewereotherindeliblemoments.SheweptwhenPresidentClintonawardedtheCongressionalGoldMedaltocivilrightspioneerRosaParksduetoabillCar-sonhadauthored.SheteamedwithSen.RichardLugartomitigatebureaucraticroadblockstochildhealthinsurance.“CongresswomanCarson’scommentsatthetimeexempli-fied her typical compassion for the most disadvantaged and vulnerableofourcommunity,”Lugarrecalled. Carson had said,“MoneyalonewillnotsolveAmerica’shealthcarechallenges.Wemustmaximizeourexistingresourcesbybeingmorecreativeandaggressiveinouroutreacheffortsandmakingiteasierforfamiliestotapinto these benefits. We all know that children who do not getroutine,preventativehealthcarewillnotreachtheirfullpotential.Wesimplycannotaffordtoputourchildrenatthatdisadvantage.” Inperhapsoneofthemostcontroversialmovesofhercongressionalcareer,CarsonvotedagainsttheOctober2002IraqWarresolutionwhiletryingtofendoffMcVey’swell-funded,crediblechallenge.AsFranQuigleydescribedinNUVO,“35yearsagowhenCarson worked in the office of CongressmanAndyJacobs,shewouldaccompanyheartbrokenIndianapolisfamiliestotheair-port.Theretheywouldreceivethe flag-draped coffins return-ingfromVietnamcarryingtheremainsoftheirsons,hus-bands,brothers.LikeJacobs,shehatedthewarandvowednevertostandbyandsanctionsenselesskillings.”ShecalledJacobs from the floor of the Houseonthenightofthevote,cryingandsayingthatthewarvotemightcostherthenextelection.Itdidnot. On the eve of the warinMarch2003,shetoldagroupofdemonstratorsindowntownIndianapolis,“Trulyitisallinthenameofgreedandtrulyinthenameofwar.WeshouldhavelearnedbytheVietnamWar,butwedidnot.” Theironyisthatshewasoneof31Democratswhovotedopposingamovetokeepherparty’sOhioElectoralCollegevotesawayfromGeorgeW.Bushinthedeadlocked2000election,atonepointbluntlyadvisingAlGore,“takethehighgroundandhandit

over.” JuliaCarsonseemedtofaderightbeforeoureyes.Herspeechesoverthepastcoupleyearswereramblingaf-

fairsthatpromptedreporterstoputdowntheirpensandadmirerstolaughinasadsortofwayandsay,“That’sJulia.”WhentheColtswontheSuperBowllastJanuary,she said on the House floor, “See,wehavegoodthingsinmydistrict.Theyarenotalldrive-byshootings.”Shetookto the House floor in a wheel chairandaideswouldac-companyhertocommitteesandhelphervote.Colum-nistsliketheIndianapolisStar’sMattTullyurgedhertoretire...onherownterms. Intheend,thereweregreaterforcestuggingonRep.Carson’ssoul,onethatsheclearlyrecognized.OnNov.5shetoldAmosBrown in her final public statement,“WhenGodgetsthroughwithmehewilllaymedowntosleepandI’llbesomewhereprayingtheLordmysoultokeep.WhenIget

tothepointwhereIcometotheendoftheroadandtalktotheLordaboutwhatI’mgoingtodonow,Ithinkhe’llshowmetheanswers.”v

Rep. Carson gathered with other Hoosier Democratic lions in October 2004, including former congressmen Lee Hamilton, Andrew Jacobs Jr., and U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky. (Howey Politics Indiana photo by Brian A. Howey)

Services for Rep. Carson

U.S.Rep.JuliaCarson’sbodywilllayinreposeintheIndianaStatehouserotundafrom10a.m.to10p.m.Friday.ItmilitarycaissonwilltakeherbodyfromherParkAvenuehometotheStatehousebetween7:30and9:30a.m.Funeralserviceswillbeat10a.m.SaturdayattheEasternStarChurchonEast30thStreet.ShewillbelaidtorestatCrownHillCemetery. OtherHoosierstolayinreposeattheStatehouse:2004:Gov.RobertOrr.2003:Gov.FrankO’Bannon.1921:James Bethel Gresham, Evansville, who was the first U.S. soldierkilledinWorldWarI.1918:U.S.Sen.andVicePres-identCharlesWarrenFairbanks.1916:HoosierpoetJamesWhitcombRiley.1901:PresidentBenjaminHarrison.1891:Gov.AlvinP.Hovey.1865:PresidentAbrahamLincoln,intheoldStatehouseRotunda.v

Carsonmachine,manyDemocratsarelookingforafreshfaceandanewcastofcharacters.Plus,CouncilmanCarsonhasonlyhadthatpositionforacoupleofmonthsandhasn’tevensaidhewantstobethecandidate.Welikelywon’tknowhisintentionsuntilafterthefuneralandtheChristmasholidays.TheunknownfactorhereiswhatkindofemotionalandpoliticalimpactRep.Carson’sfuneral-completewithmilitarycaissonandalongtelevisedparaderoutefromParkAvenuetotheStatehouse-willhaveonthegrandsonandotherpotentialAfrican-Americancandi-dateswhowanttheseattostayintheminorityranks. TheAdvance IndianablogwasreportingthatIceMiller attorney Randall Pollard is being floated by parts oftheCarsonmachine-includingIceMillerpartnerLacy

Johnson-asafallback.ItnotesthatsomesegmentsoftheDemocraticPartydon’twanttheCarsonmachine.Itnotesthatthegay/lesbiancommunityisupsetwithRep.Maysoverhersup-portforSJR-7(thegaymarriageban).SomeAfrican-Americansareconcernedthatifacredibleblackcandidateisn’tnominatedandwins,itcouldbeyears-decadeseven-beforeaminoritycon-gressman gets back into office. WinstontoldHPI thatthereis“toomuch fluidity” right now to make a deci-siononwhetherhewillenter.“I’mnotsurewhatI’mgoingtodoorwhatI’mlookingat,”hesaid. Andremember,forReps.Elrod,Ortechlicher,PorterandMays,thisspe-cialelectionfallsduringanintenseshortsessionoftheIndianaGeneralAssemblywhereasolutiontothepropertytaxcri-

sisisaparamountimportancetoallpartiesandwillbesothroughmid-March...orbeyond.Anddependingonwhenthe special and May primary filing deadlines fall, Reps. Orentlicher, Porter and Mays could find themselves locked outoftheirlegislativeseats...andwithnocongressionalnomination. Perhaps the best positionedcandidateisSand-ers.Shesurvivedthe2007slaughterasthetopDemocraticat-largevotegetterwith73,180andwastheonlyat-largeDemocrattosurvive.AsamemberoftheInternationalAl-lianceofTheatricalStageEmployees,wheresheservesasanInternationalRepresentative,ExecutiveBoardMembertotheCentralIndianaLaborCouncil,anddelegatetotheIndianaAFL-CIO,sheisinapositiontoattractunionsup-port,asopposedtoCouncilmanCarson,whovotedagainstlaborpeacethatwaspushedbyUnitedHere.SandersisalsopopularwithintheAfrican-Americancommunity,thoughsheiswhite.AsoneDemocraticoperativetoldHPI,“IfJoanneSanderswasblack,thiswouldbeover.”


Timelines will be crucial in race to succeed JuliaBy BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS-Thetimelinesforthe7thCDspe-cial election pose a vast debris field for anyone pondering anentry.Gov.MitchDanielswillnotannounceadateuntilafterRep.Carsonisrestinginpeace,whichwillbeSaturday.UnlesshemakestheannouncementthisSunday,itisunlikelyhewoulddosoonChristmasEveorChristmasDay. ThatmakesDec.26asthepotentialearliestday.Thatputsthe60-dayspecialelectiontimeline past the Feb. 22 filing deadlinefortheMayprimary.Thereareallsortsofotherkeydates,suchasthe29-dayabsenteeballotingwindowrequiredbylaw.Inthisscenario,theDemocraticPartycaucuscouldtakeplacewithintwoorthreeweeksafterthegovernor’sannouncement.ThewinnerofthecaucusforthespecialelectionwouldbethedefactonomineefortheMayprimary.Buttherearescenariosthatthewinnerofthespecialelectioncouldfaceprimaryoppositionfrom a candidate who files on the Feb. 22 deadline and didn’truninthespecialelection. Here’swherethingsstandatthiswriting:currentlytherearethreedeclaredcandidates,RepublicanStateRep.JonElrodandWayneHarmon,andDemocratMarionCoun-tyTreasurerMichaelRodman.Thereareaslewofpoten-tialDemocratsmakingphonecallsandliningupsupport,includingStateReps.DavidOrentlicher,CaroleneMaysandGregPorter,CenterTownshipTrusteeCarlDrummer,formerIndianaandNewYorkCityhealthcommissionerWoodrowMyers,formerIndianaDemocraticChairmanRobinWin-ston,CouncilwomanJoanneSanders,andthebigone,CouncilmanAndreCarson.IndianapolisMayorBartPeter-sontookhimselfout,sayingonWISH-TV,“I’mnotgoingtorunforCongress.It’snotinthecards.” The congresswoman’s grandsonhastheimprimaturofformerCongressmanAndyJacobsJr.andmanyelementsoftheJuliaCarsonmachine.Buttheblogshavebeenprettypersistentinreportingthatoutsideofthe

Indianapolis Councilwoman Joanne Sanders (right) may be the best positioned when it comes to succeeding U.S. Rep. Julia Carson. (Sanders campaign photo)

2008 Indiana Governor Governor 2008:Republican:Gov.MitchDaniels,LaRonKeith.Democrat:JimSchellinger,JillLongThomp-son.1996 Results: O’Bannon(D)1,075,342,Goldsmith(R)997,505,Dillon(L)35,261.2000 Results:O’Bannon(D)1,230,345,McIn-tosh(R)906,492,Horning(L)38,686.2004 Results: Daniels(R)1,302,912,Kernan(D)1,113,900,Gividen(L)31,644.2008 Fore-cast: TheRepublicanGovernorsAssociationreleasedapoll-conducted12/10-15byBellwetherResearch&Consulting(1,009registered,+/-3%)showingDanielsleadingThompson46-33percentandSchellinger46-31percent.ItputDaniels’fav/unfavsat51/41percent. Danielswasendorsedby10laborunionslastThursday. ThompsonwasendorsedbytheCommunicatonWorkersofAmericathisweek.Andwekeephearingrum-blingsofabigcampaignshakeupwithSchellinger.Demo-cratic Primary Status: TOSSUP.General Status:TOSSUP

2008 Indiana Legislative House District 19: Republican:CrownPointMayor Dan Klein, Jim Cuffia, Andrew Webster. Democrat: RochelleVanDenBurgh,DennisMeeks.2006 Results: Kuzman(D)9,796,Hammond(R)5,581.2008 Forecast:Indiana'sDistrict19stateHouseseatisripeforthetaking(Times of Northwest Indiana).FormerCenterTownship

BoardmemberRochelle"Shelli"VanDenburghwasselectedbytheDemocraticPartytotakeovertherestofKuzman'sterm.The38-year-oldsaidshehopestoretainthatposi-tioninthenextelection."It'sbeenaveryrewardingjob,personally,"shesaid."You'revulnerableinyourseat.IwanttomakesureItakeadvantageofbeingtherenowandchangethingsforthebetternow."VanDenburghsaidshewillbecarryingafullloadofbillsintotheupcominglegislativesession.CrownPointresidentDennisMeekssaidhewillchallengeVanDenburghfortheDemocraticnomina-tion."Ithinkit'stimeforlanternsandpitchforkstomakegovernmentaccountablewiththeirmoney,"hesaid."Weneedtoeliminatesomeredundancies,haveaccountabilityandreducetaxes."RepublicanCityChairmanJohnMoossaidtheparty'schancestoreclaimtheseatare"excellent."OutgoingCrownPointMayorDanKleinsaidheisconsider-ingarun."I'vebeenapproachedbysupportersthatthinkIwouldbeofvalueinthestateLegislaturebasedonmylastfouryearsofexperienceandtryingtobetterthecityofCrownPoint,"hesaid."TheythinkIcoulddomuchmoreatahigherlevelforthewholestate,basedonmyprivatesectorandpublicsectorexperience."RepublicanAndrewWebsterplanstoannouncehiscandidacyfortheDistrict19seatDec.29,accordingtosave-the-dateinvitationshesentout last week. Republican Jim Cuffia said he is "absolutely not"rulingoutarun.Status:TOSSUPv House District 95:Republican:Open.Demo-crat:StateRep.JohnBartlett.2008 Forecast: Bartlett,a union official from Rolls-Royce, defeated Indianapolis CouncilmanKingRoConley26-9inthecaucustoreplacetheretiredMaeDickinson.Thisseatwillnotbecompetitiveinthefall.Status:SAFE Dv


There’sbeenplentyofspeculationthatMarionCountyDemocraticChairmanMichaelO’Connorcouldbethe pivotal force here, having the ability to fill precinct va-cancies.ButO’ConnortoldHowey Politics IndianaonWednesday,“Novacancythatexistedaftermid-Novembercanvoteinthecaucus.”Hewasunsureastohowmanyprecinct vacancies there are. O’Connor has been under fire fromsomepartsofthepartyforhisroleinthedefeatofMayorPetersoninNovember.WiththePetersoncollapseanddeathofRep.Carson,theseareanxiousandtryingtimesforO’ConnorandtheDemocraticPartyhierarchy. OntheRepublicanside,thereareconcernswithintheorganizationofRep.Elrod’smoney-raisingability.Thusthere’sbeenasearchforabiggername.We’veheardProsecutorCarlBrizziandSecretaryofStateToddRokitamentionedinthisgroup.We’renotgettingmanyindicatorsthat either one will seriously pursue the office. Ditto for 2004nomineeEricDickerson.

The Hill reportedthattheNRCCwillnotlikelybehelping7thCDRepublicans.ItnotesthattheracetoreplaceformerHouseSpeakerDennisHastertinIllinoiswilllikelydrawanyresourcesinearly2008andeventhosewillbescant.Tothem,the7thCDismuchmoreofalongshotthanHastert’sdistrict.JohnKerrycarriedthe7thoverPresidentBush58-42percentin2004. The HillquotedMarionCountyGOPChairmanTomJohnassayingthatwhileElrodisastrongcampaignerwhohaswonhislegislativeandCenterTownshipracesinextremelyDemocraticdistricts,“Obviously,theamountofmoneyyouhavetoraiseforacongressionalseat…ismuchdifferent,”Johnsaid.“OneofJon’sbigchallengeswillberaisingthatkindofmoneyandtheamountoftimethatittakes.”Anddoingitduringalegislativesessionwhichbanscampaignfundraisingbymembers.Duringtheholidays,staytunedtowww.howeypolitics.comfor7thCDcampaignupdatesandnews.v


Help us compile 200850 Most Influential ListBy BRIAN A. HOWEY There’snoquestionaboutit,wewentoutonsomelimbswhenthe2007 Howey Politics Indiana 50 Most Influential List. Someofthem,likeour“prematureadulation”forAllenCountyCommissionerNelsonPeters,wholostintheFortWaynemayoralprimary,werebusts.Ithappenseveryyear.ButotherslikeLongBeachnativeChiefJusticeJohnRoberts,whohasusheredprofoundchangestotheU.S.SupremeCourt,andUAWPresidentsRonGettel-finger and Mo Davidson, who helpedreworkautocontractsandlandtheGetragplantdealatTipton,wererightonthemoney. ObviouslytherewereprofoundchangesintheNo-vemberelectionsandpeoplelikeJimSchellinger,JillLongThompson,GregBallardandTomHenrywillemergeonthe2008list.Andthat’swhereyoucomein.Sendusyourlist,whetheritbesomeoneyouthinkisdeserving,atop10oranentirelistto:[email protected],ourlistisbasedonwhowillimpacttheeventsforthecomingyear.We’llpublishthelistonJan.17,2008.

2007 HPI 50 Most Influential List1.U.S.SupremeCourtJusticeJohnG.Roberts2.Gov.MitchDaniels3.SpeakerB.PatrickBauer4.IndianapolisMayorBartPeterson5.U.S.Sen.RichardLugar6.KoichiKondo7.SenatePresidentProTemporeDavidLong8. UAW Presidents Ron Gettlefinger and Mo Davidson9.Ways&MeansChairmanBillCrawford10.U.S.Sen.EvanBayh11.U.S.Rep.BaronHill12.CarmelMayorJamesBrainard13.EvansvilleMayorJonathanWeinzapfel14.AllenCountyCommissionerNelsonPeters15.MarionCountyProsecutorCarlBrizzi16.GaryMayorRudyClay17.US.Rep.PeteVisclosky18.LeeHamilton19.IEDCDirectorNathanFeltman20.StateSen.BobMeeks

21.StateSen.LukeKenley22.U.S.Rep.PeteVisclosky23.U.S.Rep.BradEllsworth24.U.S.Rep.JoeDonnelly25.U.S.Rep.MikePence26.IndianaDemocraticChairmanDanParker27.IndianaRepublicanChairmanMurrayClark28.U.S.Rep.SteveBuyer29.U.S.Rep.MarkSouder30.HouseMinorityLeaderBrianBosma31.FarmBureauPresidentDonVillwock32.TimRoemer33.MarionCountyDemocraticChairmanMichaelO’Connor

34.TerreHauteMayorKevinBurke35.U.S.Rep.JuliaCarson36.RepublicanExecutiveDirectorJenniferHallowell37.ChamberPresidentKevinBrinegar38.IMAPresidentPatKiely39.Lt.Gov.BeckySkillman40.SouthBendMayorDennisLuecke41.U.S.Rep.DanBurton42.StateReps.SheilaKlinkerandPeggyWelch

43.St.JosephDemocraticChair-manButchMorgan44.FSSACommissionerMitchRoob45.IACTPresidentMattGreller46.LugarChiefofStaffMartyMorris47.StateSen.ViSimpson48.FortWayneMayorGrahamRichard48.SenateMinorityLeaderRichardYoung49.StateReps.KregBattlesandJonElrod50.JohnGreggHonorable Mention (alphabetical) MarionCountySheriffFrankAnderson;7thCDChairSherlondaAnderson;WarrenTownshipTrusteeJeffBennett;BetsyBurdick;DeputyMayorSteveCampbell;AttorneyGeneralSteveCarter;DanCoats;UnitedMeth-odistBishopMichaelCoyner;KathyDavis;MichaelDavis;ShawFriedman;StateRep.CraigFry;TimeGoeglein;EarlGoode;BobGrand;BillHaan;JohnHammondIII;AlHubbard;MadisonMayorAlHuntington;LacyJohnson;JoeKernan;JoeLoftus;HammondMayorTomMcDermott;KokomoMayorMattMcKillip;LaPorteMayorLeighMor-ris;JohnOkeson;StateRep.GregPorter;JimPurucker;IndianapolisCouncilmanIsaacRandolph;MishawakaMayorJeffRea;Supt.SuellenReed;CharlesSchalliol;DanSeitz;TomSugar;HamiltonCountyRepublicanChairmanCharlieWhite;AbdulHakim-Shabazz;MikeSodrel;Sen.ThomasWeatherwax;GaryWelsh;RobinWinston;SenateMinorityLeaderRichardYoung.v

Doug Ross,Times of Northwest Indiana-Tuesdaymorning,shortlyaftertheIndianaCommissiononLocalGovernmentReform’sreportwasreleasedat7:30,Ibeganreadingit.Irereadit.AndIrereaditagain. It was difficult to decide what I liked bestaboutthereport.ItsaidmanyofthesamethingsI’vebeensayingabouttheneedtopeelawaythelayersofgovernmentandmakeitoperate more efficiently at less cost. And then it cametome:Whatmakesthemostsenseaboutthe report is that it doesn’t expect local officials toworktheirwayoutofthismess.That’sgood,becausewe’vebeendisappointedsomanytimes.Idon’twanttofacethedauntingtaskofcountingthenumberofpublic officials in Lake County who have been convicted on publiccorruptionchargesovertheyears.TheLakeCountyCouncilstillhasaconvictedfelon,WillSmithJr.,whore-fusestoresign.CouncilPresidentElsieFranklin,D-Gary,isonrecordfortwoboneheadedremarks--thatshewouldopposeeliminatinganycountyjobsandthatthecouncilneedsSmith.Whichismoreinsultingtothetaxpayers?That’slikeaskingwhetheryouwanttobestabbedorshot.Eitherway,ithurtsalot.Anddon’tforgetthewarningsGov.Mitch Daniels repeatedly gave to local officials in Indiana. Thestatehastoomuchgovernment,hesaid.Eitherre-form yourself, or the state will fix it for you. Local officials didn’trisetothechallenge.Nosurprisethere.Theyignoredaplethoraofroadmapsforchange,thelatestbeingtheGoodGovernmentInitiative’sMaximusrecommendations.SotheblueribbonpanelheadedbyformerGov.JoeKernanandChiefJusticeRandallShepardisrecommendingsomesweeping changes. The number of elected officials would be slashed.And,perhapsbestofall,governmentemployeeswouldn’t be able to serve as elected officials for that unit of government.Thatlastbitshouldseemobvious.Whywouldanyonewantgovernmentemployeesrunningthegovern-ment?v

Rich James, Post-Tribune-Wow!Talkaboutsomethingtoknockyoursocksoff.Therecommenda-tionsfromtheIndianaCommissiononLocalGovernmentReform did just that on Tuesday, following a five-week study commissionedbyGov.MitchDaniels.ThecommissionwantstoturnIndianalocalgovernmentinsideout.Someofthesuggestionshavebeenmadebefore,butneverhavethewordscomefromsoon-high.LocalgovernmentinIndianaisold,stodgyandinneedofanextrememakeover.Danielsputitintoperspective,saying,“Firstofall,intermsoflocalgovernmentstructure,Indianaskippedthe20thCentury.Wearedealingwithasystemthatisacenturyandahalfold,anditisinneedofmodernization.Wehavetoomanyofeverythingandtheyallcostmoney.”He’sbyandlargeontarget.WhentheIndianaConstitutionwasadoptedin1851,itprettymuchlaidouthowlocalgovernmentwould

work.Anditprettymuchhasn’tchangedsince.Intermsofcountygovernment,theconstitutionsaidtherewouldbeaclerkoftheCircuitCourt,auditor,recorder,treasurer,

sheriff,coronerandsurveyor.Theconstitutionwentontosay,“Suchothercountyandtownshipofficers as may be necessary shall be elected, or appointed,insuchmannerasmaybeprescribedbylaw.”Interestingly,theword“appointed”wasused.ThestudyheadedbyformerGov.JoeKer-nanandChiefJusticeRandallShepardisheavyon“appointed.”Idon’tbuyintoalloftherecom-mendations,butthinkthemajorityhavemerit.v

Leslie Stedman Weidenbener, Louisville Courier-Journal-AmosBrown:“Whosellsthisaftertoday,knowingthespecialinterestswillstopatnothingtostopthis?”heaskedthegroup,somewhatincredulously.“WhoisgoingtogooutandeducateHoo-siers?”Longpause.Long.Thenlaughter,evenamongthecommissionmembers.“I’lltakeit,”someonewhispered.“No,oneofyoushould,”thegovernorsaidquietly.“Allthreeofuscanspeaktothat,”IndianaChiefJusticeRandallShepard,theotherco-chairman,saidslightlylouder.ThenKernanwasatthemicrophone.“Ithasalreadybeensaid,”hebegan.“One,there’saccesstothisinformation.Two,thisisimportant.”Andonhewent,noneofitreallyaboutanybodysellingwhatwouldbethebiggestoverhaulinlo-calgovernment--reallytheonlyoverhaul--sinceIndianawroteitsconstitutionin1851.Danielshadalreadytakenapass,atleastforthemoment.Hesaidhewaswithhold-ing specific reaction to the commission’s recommendation “forawhile.”Danielsdidsayhesupports“thethrustofthisverymuch.”Buthedidn’tsayhe’dbeputtingtheserecommendationsintohislegislativeagenda.Theissueisnotaboutwhethertheideasaregoodones.It’saboutwhatispracticalnextyear.v

Jack Colwell, South Bend Tribune -CoulditbeLukePuckett?Who?Well,notmany2ndDistrictvotersknowtheGoshenbusinessmanwhoactuallywasrunning--oratleastwalkingfast--backonDyngusDay.HewenttoDynguseventsinSouthBendandMisha-waka,proclaimingthathewasseriouslyconsideringseek-ingthecongressionalnomination.Puckettdesignatedacampaign treasurer, filed papers with the Federal Election Commissionandloaned$5,000tohiscampaigncommitteetogetstarted.Inmid-June,however,Puckettsentoutane-mailtellingsupportersthathewouldnotrundueto“fac-tors that range from family to finances.” Puckett says he wantstoenjoytheholidayswithhisfamily--whilegivingmorethoughttoacampaignaswell--andthenmakeafinal decision right after Jan. 1. “If I get in,” Puckett says, “I’minittowintherace.”v


Potent brew of politicalcrack & junkie light showBy MARK CURRY WASHINGTON-Withjust14daysremainingbeforetheIowacaucuses,thecampaignsarepimpingtheex-pectationsgame,andanalystshavegoneloopyfromthepotentbrewofpoliticalcrack. We’vecometothatstrangeandrarepointintheelectoralspace-timecontinuumwhereconventionalthinkingcollideswithunconventionalevents.Theshockwavecouldreverberatethroughoutthetwo-partysystem.Politicaljunk-iesanticipateonehelluvalightshow. “[L]ifehassuddenlybecomeveryconfusingonthewaytothe2008presidentialelection,”DavidS.Broderwroteforthismorning’sWashington Post,inacolumnthatconcluded,“It’sgoingtobeacrazyChristmas.” Votersintheearlystatesare a fickle and unsatisfied lot. Caucus-goersandprimaryvotershaveshiftedpreferencessomanytimesoverthepastfewweeksthatit’sbecomeunwisetospecu-lateaboutwhatmighthappeninIowaonJan.3rdorNewHamp-shire five days later.

The Republican spectacle Considerwhat’shap-penedintheRepublicanraceinjustthepastfewdays: •Thismorning,thePostreportedonPage1that“TheracebeforeIowa’sRepublicancaucuseshasnarrowedtoatwo-personcontestbetweenformergovernorsMikeHuckabeeofArkansasandMittRomneyofMassachusetts,withHuckabeenowperchedatop the field, propelled by a big jump in support among religiouswomen.” •Yesterday,anarticleintheNew York SunclaimedformerMayorRudyGiuliani,wholeadsthepartyinnationalpolls,isabandoningNewHampshireandconcen-tratingonFlorida.“ThemorehecampaignedintheGraniteStateandthemorehespentonadvertisingthere,themorehispollnumbersdropped,”accordingtotheSun. •OnMonday,newsbrokethatDemocraticSen.JoeLiebermanofConnecticuthadendorsedRepublicanhope-ful,Sen.JohnMcCainofArizona,whoisrisinginthepolls. •Overtheweekend,Rep.RonPaul(R-TX),whopollssomewhereoutnearPluto,announcedthathiscampaign’s“MoneyBomb”hadcollectedmorethan$6mil-

lioninasingle24-hourperiod,withthemediandonationsaidtobe$50.HeisnowsurpassinghaplessandlazyFredThompsonandgainingontheethically-challengedGiulianiinIowaandtosomeextentinNewHampshire. Andwe’rejustnowgettingtodowntothegoodstuff,namelytheHolyWarsinIowabetweenRomneyandHuckabee,aseachattemptstogarnercriticalsup-portamongconservativeChristianvoters.Huckabee,anordainedSouthernBaptistminister,hasrepeatedlyproddedRomneyonhisMormonfaith,suggesting(incorrectly)dur-ingoneinterviewthatMormonsconsiderJesusandSatantobebrothers.Yesterday,theArkansantookanotherswipewiththereleaseofareligion-laced,Christmas-themedtele-visionadvertisementfeaturingabookcasebehindthecan-didatethatglowedlikeashiningcross(and,perhaps,thetrinityinChristmasornaments).Thereverenddeniedthathadbeenhisintention,tellingtheToday Show,“Peoplearelookingforanythingintheworld.It’salmostlikeit’sso

politicallyincorrecttosay‘MerryChrist-mas’ anymore, and I find this pretty amazing.”JoannaWeissoftheBoston Globeremindedherreadersnottobedistractedbytherealimportofthead.“Conspiracytheoriesaside,”shewrote,“theadhasgainedattentionforwhatitrepresents:adeliberate,pointedsalvoinaRepublicanprimarycampaignthathasincreasinglyhingedonreligion.Theimpliedmessage,observerssay,seemstobetwofold:thatthere’soneimportantreligionandonecandidatewhorepre-sentsitbest.” RomneyhasrunadsattackingHuckabeeonimmigrationandcriminaljustice,andcontinuestovoicethemes

knowntobeimportanttocaucus-goerssupportingtheraceleader.The Baltimore SunreportedonMitt’svisittoWestDesMoines,where“hespokeabouttheimportanceoffamilyandmaintainedthatthecountry’sculturehelpstomakeitthemostpowerfulnationonearth.Thereason,hesaid,is‘whatwelearninourhomes,whatmomsanddadsteachtheirkids.’” ABC NewsreportedonHuckabee’sresponse.“He’sbeenattackingmejustruthlesslyinthemailandontelevisionanddistortingtherecord,”Huckabeesaid.“AndIthinkweneedtogettherecordstraightenedup.Andgetthetruthout....Theattackshavebeendesperate,andIthinkthey’vebeendishonest.”

The Democratic circus ReportsoutoftheHawkeyeStateindicatetheDemocraticcontestmaybemovingintoathree-waybattle,thoughthecampaignofSen.BarackObama(D-IL)dis-putessuchclaims.Real Clear PoliticshastheIllinois


senatorat30percent,Sen.HillaryClinton(D-NY)at27,andformerSen.JohnEdwards(D-NC),24. ClintonadvisershavebeenpushingthenotionthatEdwardsposesagrowingthreat,accordingtoAnneE.KornblutoftheWashington Post.“Obamaadvisershavecounteredthatitmakesforaconvenientstoryline-andisevidencetheClintoncampaignisthreatenedbyatwo-wayrace”withObama,shewrote. ButSamYoungmanofThe Hill isamongthosewhothinkEdwardsposesachallenge.“Throwoutthepolls,”Youngmanadvises.“Thisisathree-waytie,andevery-bodyagreesatthisstagethatthewinneristhepersonwhocanturnouthisorhersup-portersandconvincethemtostayloyaloncetheygettothehighschoolgymnasiums.”AlsoamongthebelieversisIowa’sownpo-liticalguru,DavidYepsen.Asevidence,thereporterfortheDes Moines RegistercitesObama’sattackonEdwardsduringacam-paignstopinSpencer.“Obama,wholikestofashionhimselfasMr.Positive,wouldn’tbeattackinghimlikethatifEdwardswasroadkill,”Yepsenwrote. And,there’stalkofdirtytricksafoot.Yesterday,MSNBC reportedonanegativemailinginIowafromtheAmericanFederationofState,CountyandMunici-palEmployees.Theadstates“Forthosewithoutinsurance,BarackObama’sband-aidsolutionisnochangeatall,”

2008 State Presidential PollsIowa (R) Date Huckabee Romney Giuliani Thompson McCain PaulCNN Dec.14-18 33 25 11 9 9 6Rasmussen Dec.17 28 27 8 8 14 6ABC/WashPost Dec.13-1735 27 8 9 68

New Hampshire (R)Rasmussen Dec.18 11 31 13 327 7CNN/WMUR Dec.13-17 10 34 163225FoxNews Dec.11-1311 33 16 2208

Iowa (D) Date Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson BidenCNN Dec.14-18 30 26 28 7 --Rasmussen Dec.17 31 22 27 9 --InsiderAdvantage Dec.16-17 24 26 27 -- --

N. Hampshire (D)Rasmussen Dec.18 31 18 28 8 2CNN/WMUR Dec.13-17 38 14 26 8 2FoxNews Dec.11-13 34 15 25 6 2


accordingtoreporterCarrieDann,whonotedtheAFSCMEbacksClinton.“Here’sthekicker,though,”Dannwrote.“ThepiecequotesEdwardsfroma Sioux City Journal ar-ticleinNovembersayingthat‘asmanyas15millionAmeri-canswouldbewithoutcoverage’underObama’splan.”Clinton’s name is nowhere to be found on the flier. “[T]hose intheknowmightthinkthatthisnewnegativemailisIowa

Niceplayingalittledirty,”Dannstated. TherewillbeplentyoftimeandspaceformoreofthesamebeginningthisweekendwhenthemajorityofAmericanstuneoutthemainstreammediamachineandturnonthegameovertheChristmasholiday.Junkies will still be able to find their political fix online or via late-nightTV,buttherestofuswillbetoobusygatheringwithfamilyandfriendstocareornotice,atleastuntilit’stoolatetomakemuchofadiffer-ence.Itmaybeatemptingtimeforcampaignstoletslipwitha

fewblowsbelowthebelt.ThatmaynotbeinthespiritofChristmas,butit’scertainlyinkeepingwiththehistoryofpresidentialpoliticalcampaigning.v

Indiana’s Kyle Cox helped the Obama cam-paign in South Carolina work the world’s largest phone bank after Oprah Winfrey campaigned there earlier this month and helped produce 36,426 white fliers for fol-lowup calls. (Obama campaign photo)


Understanding theIowa CaucusesBy RYAN NEES “TheIowaCaucusesaren’tdemocratic.Infact,theyaresoundemocratictheymaketheElectoralCollegeseemlikeatriumphforthosewhobelievein‘oneman,onevote.’Caucus-goersaren’tvotingforObama,orHill-aryorJohnEdwards.Theyvotefordelegatestoacountyconvention,whothengoontovotefordelegatestothestateconvention,whothengoontovotefordelegatestothenationalconvention,”wrotetheIowaProgressblogthisyear. TheIowaCaucusesaresoinexorablycomplicatedonlyabout6percentofregisteredvotersinIowabothertoturnoutforthem.Highturnoutcanhavetheeffectofmar-ginalizingvoters.Ifonesupportsacandidatetoofewoth-erssupport,thenthevoteislikelytobetossedout.Thenthere’sthepressureofpublicdeclaration,thetime(sometwohours)requiredtocaucus,thesometimessnowandicestormsonemustbattletrekkingtothecaucussite,thetricksthatcanwarpdelegatecountsmoreprofoundlythangerrymandering,andthehordesofreporters,entrance

pollsters,exitpoll-sters,andcandidatespesteringIowanstryingtodotheircivicduty.Yet,increas-ingly,those125,000orsopeopleselectthenextPresidentoftheUnitedStates. Caucusesare

heldattheprecinctlevelinIowagyms,libraries,schools,communitycenters,andelsewhere.Inall,thereare1,784precinctsinthestateand1,784caucuses,allofwhichwillbeginat7p.m.sharponJan.3.Caucus-goersmustberegisteredDemocrats,butregistrationscanbechangedonsite. Here’showitworks:caucus-goersshowupandinalargeroomdivideinto“preferencegroups”foreachcan-didate.Thenumberofpeopleineachgroupdividedbythenumberofpeoplecaucusing,isthepercentageeachcan-didatewinsatthecaucussite,andmustmeetorexceedthepercentageneededtowinasinglecountydelegate.Anexamplewillhelp. HometotheRepublicanAmesStrawPoll,thecityofAmesandIowaStateUniversity,StoryCountyisdirectlynorthofDesMoinesandoneoftheninemost


populatedcountiesthatwillaccountforoverhalfofthestate’sconven-tiondelegates(moreonthatlater).TheIowaDemocraticPartymeasuresDemocraticturnoutperformanceineachprecinctinthelasttwogeneralelections(2006gubernatorialinIowaandpresidentialin2004)andassignsdelegatesproportionally.Ofthe2,500delegatesthatwillattendtheIowaDemocraticPartyConvention,StoryCountywillsend77.Itsowncountyconventionwillcomprise360delegates,andthesearethedelegateselectedoncaucusnight.Inourexample,theStoryCity2/LafayetteTown-shipprecinctcontributessevenofthe360countydelegates. Solet’strysomecaucusmath. Thefundamentalmissionofeachcaucusiselectingdelegatestoeachcounty’sconvention.EachofIowa’s99countiesholdsuchconven-tions,whichinturnelectdelegatestothestateconvention(thewinneroftheplural-ityofstateconventiondelegatesisconsideredtobethewinnerofthenight,thewinningcandidate’sfacewillgraceallthepapersthenextmorning,althoughallofthishappensbeforeeitherconventionhappens,astheelectionnightnum-bersareprojections). First,somecon-text.OurStoryCity2pre-cinctsaw91caucus-goersin2004,andtheydividedsuchthatthreedelegateswenttoJohnKerry,threetoJohnEdwards,andonetoHowardDean.Kerryultimatelywon38%ofStoryCounty’sdelegates,roughlythesamepercentagehewonstatewide,whichisthereasonStoryCountymakessuchagoodexample. Check out this scenario when 100 caucus-goers file into the Story CityHallcommunityroomandalignintopreferencegroups.Thenumberspanoutlikethis,basedlooselyonrecentpolling:Obama28,Edwards24,Clinton21,Richardson11,Biden8,andDodd8.Noothercandidatehassupport.Thedelegatecountwouldlooklikethis:Obama3,Edwards2,Clinton2,Richardson,Biden,andDodd0.(Here’saniftycalculatorforconvertingrawvotestodelegatecounts.) Acandidateneedsenoughsupporterstowinatleastonedel-egateattheprecinct’scaucus.Becausethisprecincthasbeengivensevendelegatestothecountyconventionbytheparty,acandidateneeds1/7(orapproximately14.2%)ofthecaucus-goers’supporttoachieveviability.Inthisexample,Richardson,Biden,andDoddallfailtoachieveviability. Inthesecondroundofvoting,calledrealignment,supportersofnon-viablecandidatesmaychoosetojoinanothercandidate’sgroup.Dur-

The IowaThree-Step

Caucuses aren’t primaries. They’re a little more town

meeting and a lot less secret ballot. Instead, caucus-goers meet in 1,784 precincts and

gather in groups to elect delegates to their county’s

coconvention.

123

Everyone gathers in support groups for their preferred candidates in a process called alignment.

Delegates are awarded to each candidate based

roughly on their proportional

representation at the caucus.

After alignment, each candidates’ viability is

determined. Supporters of candidates unable to win a

delegate (who are unviable) may join other candidates’ groups in “realignment.”

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 20, 2007Page13

ingthe30-minuterealignmentperiod,supportersofviablecandidatespitchtheirneigh-borstojointheirrespectivepreferencegroups;itisonereasonwhycampaignorgani-zationontheprecinct-by-pre-cinctlevelissoimportantincapitalizingontheleftovers.Occasionallythebrainiestofpoliticalpollstersaskvotersfortheirsecondchoice,hop-ingtoprojecttherealignment,butseldomistheinformationsophisticatedenoughtobereliable.It’susuallynotimpor-tanttoknowthesecondchoiceofaHillaryClintonsupporterbecauseClintonwillalmostalwaysachieveviability,buttherearesomeprecinctssosparselypopulatedtheyelectbutonedelegate.In2004,JohnKerrywasnon-viableinover200precincts,generallyonesthatelectedasingledelegatebystrictpluralityvote. ButbacktoourStoryCountyexample.Let’ssaytheBidenandDoddfolksdecidetojoinothergroups,butbecausetheRichard-songroupisonlyfourvotesawayfromachievingviability,itstickstogether.Ofthe 16 previously affiliated with Biden and Dodd, five go to Clinton, four to Obama,fourtoEdwards,andthreetoRichardson.Nowthenumberslooklikethis(seetopgraphic):Obama32,Edwards28,Clinton26,Richardson14.ThedelegatecountwouldbeObama3,Edwards2,Clinton2,andRichardsonstill0. Buthere’sthedeviouspart:ifoneofClinton’s26supportersmovestotheRichardsoncamp,evenifthepersondoesn’tsupportRichardsonatall,theNewMexicogovernorachievesviability.Andbecausethenumberofdel-egates is fixed at seven, Richardson’s gain is Obama’s loss. NowthedelegatecountisObama2,Edwards2,Clinton2,andRichardson1,aresultthatdeprivesObamaofadel-egatedespitehiswinningnumbers.ScoreoneforClinton.(Andtheysayshe’scoldandcalculating!) Ifyouthinkthesekindsofnastytricksdon’thap-pen,thinkagain.It’sanotherreasonwhytheIowagroundgameissoimportant.Bymostaccounts,JohnEdwardshasgonethefurthestofanyDemocraticcampaigntorecruita“precinctcaptain”foreveryoneofthe1,784caucussites,andthat’sanadvantagethatshouldn’tbeoverlooked.Beyondplacingsuchtrainedmessageconduitsineverycaucussitewhohelptomaximizerealignmentgains,each

captainwillalsobepreparedtodotheverysortoftrickycaucusmathpresentedhere. But just as the fixation of delegates and the fixation on delegatescanmisrepresentpopularsentiment,therearealsootherproblems,whichwillhitharshlySen.Obama,thecandidatewhosemessageofanewkindofpoliticsdepends,atleastmoreheavilythantheothercandidates,onanewkindofvotercomingouttocau-cus.Becausethenumberofdelegatesforeachprecinctisfixed and allotted according topastDemocraticperfor-

mance,newvotersdon’tmattermuch.InStoryCounty,hometoIowaStateUniversity,whether400or4,000cometocaucus,thenumberofdelegatesthatcanbewonwillalwaysremainthesame. TheIowaProgressblogputitthisway:“Thepeople

whoaremostdisadvantagedbythisarestudents.Ofthefourcountieswhereitrequiresthemostcaucus-goerstoelectadelegate,threehad significant student populations: Johnson,PoweshiekandStory.Itisasystemthatfavorstheoldovertheyoung,theruralovertheurban,WesternIowaoverEasternIowa.Itisamethodofselectingacandidatethathasaclearbiasandtobesuccessful,presidentialcandidateshavetospendadisproportionateamountofenergy

onlesspopulousruralareas.” Further,ifindeedmuchofObama’ssupportcomesfromnew,previouslydisaffectedvoters,pollsnowshow-ing him leading the Democratic field could be deceptive. If turnoutexceedspastperformanceinanygivenprecinct,theeffectofstagnantdelegatecountsisoneofweighteddemocracy.Inanenergizedurbanareaorcollegecampus,itmighttakeahundredcaucusgoerstoelectasinglestatedelegate,whereasinaruralcountywithfewervoters,itmightrequireonly20.(Theparty’salgorithmsforallot-tingdelegatesisalreadyskewedinfavoroflesspopulatedareas;theeffectisexacerbatedifturnoutballoons.)AndwhenpollsterssurveyhundredsofIowans,evenwiththemoststatisticallyreliablemodels,theyassumeeachvoteisequal.Itisnot. WhichjustmightbethemostimportantpointtounderstandabouttheIowaCaucuses.v

isunderstaffedandlacksadequaterehabilitativeandeducationalservices(Indianapolis Star).JudgePeterNe-methalsosaidhehasreceivedreportsofsexualactivitybetweeninmatesandbetweeninmatesandstaff.“Ihavede-cideditisneithersafenorproductive”tocontinuesendingfemalejuvenilestotheDepartmentofCorrectionfacil-ityonGirlsSchoolRoad,NemethsaidinaletterhesentMondaytoGov.MitchDaniels.Nemethsaidhewasap-pealingdirectlytothegovernorafterattemptstoworkoutproblemswithDOCCommissionerJ.DavidDonahuewereunsuccessful.

Lake Commissionersveto income tax

CROWNPOINT-LakeCountycommissionershavevetoedapro-posed1percentcountyincometax,buttheCountyCouncilisexpectedtooverride(Times).

Waiz vetoes pay raises JEFFERSONVILLE-Jefferson-villeMayorRobWaizhasvetoedtwoordinancesthatwouldgivemostofthe city’s elected officials large raises for2008,boostthepayforaplan-ningdirectorMayor-electTomGalliganwantstohireandcreateacommuni-cationsdirector’spositionincitygov-ernment.“Theamountofincreasesfor the salaries for elected officials is fiscally irresponsible,” Waiz said of his vetoes,whichhesignedyesterdayafternoon(Louisville Courier-Jour-nal).

Councilmen asks countyto save health department HAMMOND-Twocitycouncil-menaskedLakeCountycommission-ersonTuesdaytostoptheirtakeoverofthecityHealthDepartment(Times of Northwest Indiana).“Wewantthemayorandcountycommission-erstobackoffuntilthereisaplanin

place,”CouncilmanHomero“Chico”Hi-nojosa,D-6th,toldtheBoardofCom-missionersonWednesdayinCrownPoint.TheCityCouncilvoted5-4onSept.27towriteoffthecityHealthDepartmentbyremovingitfromnextyear’scitybudget.

Judge Bolk weighs HatchAct in TH mayoral race TERREHAUTE-BothsidesinthelegalchallengetoMayor-electDukeBennett’scandidacysubmitteddocumentationWednesdayafternoonthatreiteratedtheirargumentsmadeincourt(Terre Haute Tribune-Star).ThesidesnowawaitadecisionbyJudgeDavidBolk.

Obama would considerLugar for cabinet MANCHESTER,N.H.-ABC’sSunlenMillerReports:BarackObamahasoftensaidhe’dconsiderputtingRepbulicansinhiscabinetandevenbandiedaboutnameslikeSens.DickLugarandChuckHagel.He’saaddedanewnametothelistofpossibleRepublicanscabinetmembers-ArnoldSchwarzenegger.Obamaregularlysayshe would look to Republicans to fill out hiscabinetifhewaselected,butatatownhalleventinManchester,N.H.,hewaspushedtonamenames.“It’sprematureformetostartannounc-ingmycabinet.Imean,I’mprettyconfident. but I’m not all that confi-dent.Westillgotalongwaytogo,”Obamasaid.ButthentheGOPnamesstarted to flow. Sen. Dick Lugar: “He’s aRepublicanswhoIworkedwithonissuesofarmscontrol,wonderfulguy.HeissomebodyIthinkembodiesthetraditionofabipartisanforeignpolicythatissensible,thatisnotideological,thatisbasedontheideathatwehavetohavesomehumilityandrestraintintermsofourabilitytoprojectpoweraroundtheworld,”ObamasaidabouthisSenatecolleague.v

McShurley wins Munciemayoral race recount MUNCIE-Theabsenteebal-lotdeliveredvictorytoDemocratJimMansfield on Nov. 6 and took it away onWednes-day.Pendingcertification todaybytherecountcommission,RepublicanSharonMc-ShurleybeatMansfield by13votes--6,121to6,108.Shewill become the first female mayor in Munciehistory(Muncie Star Press).“My first reaction was, it’s over,” Mc-ShurleytoldTheStarPressafterthecommission announced its unofficial countWednesdaynight.“Wecanallstartmovingforward.”McShurley’sre-versaloffortunewaspromptedbythefact that about 20 absentee Mansfield voteswerenotendorsedwiththeinitialsofrepresentativesfrombothpoliticalparties.Indianalawrequiresthatpoliticalappointees,workinginthecountyelectionroom,endorsetheabsenteeballotcardswiththeirinitialsbeforemailingthemouttovoters.Thethree-memberrecountcommissiondecidedunanimouslytodisqualifythesevotes,themajorityofwhichcamefromPrecinct46.Demo-craticattorneyMikeQuirk,whowasMansfield’s campaign manager, called theomission“atbestincompetenceandatworstfraud.”Democrats,Quirksaid,wouldbestudyingtheirlegalop-tionsWednesdaynightandThursdaymorning.“Idon’tthinkit’soveryet,”hesaid.

Judge Nemeth tells Danielsjuvenile center not safe INDIANAPOLIS-ASt.JosephCountyjudgehasstoppedsendingfemaleoffenderstotheIndianapolisJuvenileCorrectionalFacility,claim-ingthestate-rundetentioncenter


submerged fiscal bombs - in.gov · in nuvo, “35 years ago when carson worked in the office of...

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