Submission to the Territory Economic Recovery Commission by the Demography and Growth Planning research team at CDU

Introduction

The Northern Territory’s recovery from impacts of the global pandemic, and beyond, will rely on population stability and, over time, growth. Population growth generates internal markets for goods and services, revenues for governments, attracts GST funds and creates jobs. Our population is also our workforce, a point that is salient at a time when access to overseas temporary workers is significantly constrained.

This submission is made by the Demography and Growth Planning research team at the Northern Institute of Charles Darwin University and focuses on the potential role for population research in helping to target and direct Territory recovery efforts. We begin by introducing ourselves before proceeding to describe the baseline population conditions prior to COVID-19 and the significant research we delivered in 2019 on specific drivers for migration to and from the Territory which have informed government policies on the key pillars for future growth - population attraction and retention. We then outline proposed research to assist Territory businesses, governments and communities to develop and target initiatives and policies for the recovery.

About us

The Demography and Growth Planning team has been delivering robust and independent population research to inform government, the private sector and communities on the causes and consequences of population change for the Territory for 15 years. We work closely with the Northern Territory Government, and particularly with the Department of Treasury and Finance and the Department of the Chief Minister, to help improve population outcomes through the application of research and analysis on our population trends as well as projections for future change.

The team are internationally recognised and published experts in analysing, modelling and understanding the causes and consequences of population change for the Northern Territory and beyond (more information on the team here). We are invited members of the national Centre for Population expert advisory group and sit on the ABS’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Demographic Statistics Expert Advisory Group and its Population and Social Statistics Advisory Group. Our research was used to develop the Northern Territory Population Growth Strategy and in 2019 we conducted the largest ever population survey for the Northern Territory – The Territory and Me.

Territory population impacts from the global pandemic

To a large extent, ongoing impacts from the global pandemic on population mobility are unknown. Prior to the pandemic, the Territory had experienced a long period of population stagnation in terms its growth rates. This was predominantly due to deteriorations in Net Interstate Migration (NIM) - the difference between people moving from interstate to the Territory as residents and those leaving. This can be observed in Figure 1 below. Blue bars show years when more people flowed from interstate to the Territory than the reverse, and red bars show more people flowed from the Territory to interstate. The black line in Figure 1 is the observed Territory population growth rate. The data show the Territory has had a number of low growth ‘eras’ in past; notably from 1986 to 1995 and 1997 to 2003. However, the era leading up to the pandemic was more protracted with NIM outcomes worse than previously experienced in the Territory’s history. During 2018, for example, 4,000 more residents migrated from the Territory to other states and the ACT than arrived to take up residence in the Territory.

Figure 1 Northern Territory net interstate migration 'eras' (blue and red bars) and the Territory growth rate (black line), 1979 to 2018

Despite negative interstate migration outcomes, sub-sections within the Territory’s population grew at relatively high rates during the most recent low growth era. These included overseas born residents from selected source countries like the Philippines, India, Nepal and a conglomerate of African nations (see our research on this topic here) and seniors age groups (see our research here) whose absolute numbers were growing very significantly through a process of structural (or inbuilt) population ageing. It is, and will be in future, critical to Territory population growth to ensure residents in these groups, and others, are retained.

The Territory is subject to strong seasonal and annual variations in population growth rates. Interstate arrivals, for example, have traditionally surged during dry-season months while major projects have in the past contributed to growth variations across time. With NIM in the negative during most years leading up to the pandemic, the NT’s population growth rate remained highly susceptible to levels of net overseas migration. Unfortunately this tap is now turned off.

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Territory population movements are currently speculative. It might be speculated, for example, that greatly reduced interstate border flows will assist with growth because those who might have left for interstate either chose to stay or could not leave. On the other hand, there might be a latent ‘stock’ of Territory residents waiting to move from the Territory to be with family interstate and, with borders now open, the Territory may over time experience significant losses to interstate. These examples demonstrate there are opportunities and challenges in relation to Territory population growth and its role in the recovery. It is vital, therefore, that Territory recovery efforts incorporate ways to help retain the existing population and, where possible, attract new residents. Understanding impacts from the pandemic on sentiments towards coming to, staying in or leaving the Territory will be critical to recovery efforts. For individuals and their families, such sentiments are likely tied to whether and how the pandemic has influenced their work, business, health and wellbeing, housing and family outcomes.

Understanding Territory population drivers

In the Territory our team’s research on population change has been applied to policy development for attracting and retaining people in the Territory. In 2019 we conducted the largest ever population survey for the Territory called The Territory and Me (TTaM). More than 5,200 people told us their motivations for coming to live in, stay living in and leaving the Territory. By applying a range of statistical techniques, we were able to distil the key factors driving Territory migration. For example, we found that the probability of leaving the NT decreases as you move into older life-stages. It also reduces if you are purchasing a home. Our analysis of the data also confirmed the importance of overseas migrants to the Territory’s population because of their higher probability of staying after settling into Territory life. The research demonstrated a clear distinction between early settlement and longer periods of residency in the Territory, with the latter being critical knowledge for retention initiatives.

The pandemic has disrupted much of what we know around the drivers of population mobility, with impacts to community health and confidence, business activity and economic stability. Better understanding the consequences of border closures, uncertainty in employment and recruitment opportunities, the positive benefits of the Territory’s relative isolation, and the increased challenges associated with family separation on migration decisions will have direct benefit to government and business in planning for and implementing recovery actions. TTaM results provide a valuable baseline on migration drivers prior to the pandemic allowing changing sentiments and trends to be identified and we propose extending this research to track migration sentiments through the recovery period and beyond.

The Northern Territory Sentiment Monitor

Given the above, the essence of our submission is a proposal for a longitudinal survey to monitor and capture evolving sentiments and drivers for population attraction and retention to inform and target recovery initiatives, policies and investments. This will help ensure the Territory is on the front-foot with robust research-based rebound decisions as we seek to stabilise and grow the population and the economy. Longitudinal data gives direct access to changes in individual circumstances, attitudes and behaviors. For example, the ABS has responded to the need for national level information on the household impacts of COVID-19 through a short-term pulse survey requesting core demographic and employment information each month with additional cyclical content. Data for State/Territory level, however, are not available.

Sample

The sentiment monitor will engage some of the 3,000 individuals form the TTaM survey who agreed to be re-contacted and provided their contact details. This sub-sample includes Territory residents, people who used to live in the Territory and those who may see the Territory as a future migration destination. The sample can be expanded through snowballing (word of mouth) and promotional activities. Increasing the sample of people who live overseas in regions which already send migrants to the Territory would, for example, be an area of focus.

The current TTaM sample is sufficient for further investigations of traditionally important migration markets such as early-career women, migrants from significant source countries, and pre-retirees who will make decisions about where to settle in their retirement.

Content

The survey content will focus on questions that will inform our understanding on how to keep people in the Territory who would otherwise leave, and how to attract people who may not come. These could include:

· Changes in individual’s employment or business circumstances

· Whether people are engaging in further education and training

· Changes in individual level physical/mental health, overall lifestyle and financial circumstances

· How the Territory is viewed by people in other parts of Australia

· How the Territory is viewed by people overseas (particularly those from important source markets)

· Factors that will keep people here (how do these change by key demographic and socio-economic characteristics)

· Factors that will encourage people to move to the Territory (how do these change by key demographic and socio-economic characteristics)

· Which amenities/risks are important to attraction or retention decisions

Final content can respond to input and feedback from current Territory rebound advisory bodies such as Team Territory, Regional Reconstruction committees and Land Councils. The longitudinal nature of the survey provides opportunities to include question modules on issues of particular interest, or to test community appetite for specific initiative and programs. It can also be adaptive to the changing needs of governments, business organisations and community groups for the ongoing monitoring of migration propensities.

Results

Results of the survey can be combined with other data sources such as Medicare data, interstate and overseas migration data and labour force indicators to understand trends and disruption patterns.

Recommendation

We recommend the Territory Reconstruction Commission consider the importance of monitoring sentiments towards migrating to, staying in or leaving the Territory along with key economic, health and social variables. The recommended approach is to monitor sentiment changes over times as highly volatile local, national and international conditions and impacts continue during our recovery efforts. The Demography and Growth Planning at the Northern Institute are ideally placed to lead this research initiative with access to a purposeful sample and a proven track record of providing robust, ethical and policy relevant evidence on the NT population challenges.

Thank you for considering our submission. Our contact details are provided below.

Associate Professor Andrew Taylor and Fiona Shalley

Contact: andrew.taylor@cdu.edu.au : 08 8946 6692

Demography and Growth Planning Submission to TERC