success and failure in adaptation dr anne-marie grisogono research leader land systems land...
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![Page 1: Success and Failure in Adaptation Dr Anne-Marie Grisogono Research Leader Land Systems Land Operations Division, DSTO](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082516/56649d6b5503460f94a49f91/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Success and Failure in AdaptationSuccess and Failure in Adaptation
Dr Anne-Marie GrisogonoDr Anne-Marie Grisogono
Research Leader Land SystemsResearch Leader Land Systems
Land Operations Division, DSTOLand Operations Division, DSTO
![Page 2: Success and Failure in Adaptation Dr Anne-Marie Grisogono Research Leader Land Systems Land Operations Division, DSTO](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082516/56649d6b5503460f94a49f91/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Scope and ObjectivesScope and Objectives
Interested in systems that adapt Including natural (living) and ‘engineered’ systems – and also
hybrid sociotechnical systems
both individual systems and populations of systems
Open systems that exist in and interact with a context (physical environment + other systems) through porous boundaries
Iterative Iterative process:process: fitnessfitness variationvariation interactioninteraction feedbackfeedback fitness- fitness- …linked linked …selectionselection
Understand and exploit the power of adaptation to generate useful new characteristics (design),
to solve complex problems,
to develop comparative advantage over competing systems
to develop effective cooperative strategies between systems
To do this - need to understand how adaptation works, and
how and why it succeeds or fails.distinguish success/failure of mechanism of adaptation from needed successes and failures within adaptation
![Page 3: Success and Failure in Adaptation Dr Anne-Marie Grisogono Research Leader Land Systems Land Operations Division, DSTO](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082516/56649d6b5503460f94a49f91/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
How Does a Living System Make a Living?How Does a Living System Make a Living?
import resources to function and reproduce, and…
fight decay through homeostasis, self- repair and exporting waste
import resources to function and reproduce, and…
fight decay through homeostasis, self- repair and exporting waste
??Complexity and adaptation are Complexity and adaptation are inextricably linkedinextricably linked
Emergence of complex structure Emergence of complex structure through adaptation is elicited by through adaptation is elicited by problems posed by contextproblems posed by context
Success in making a living Success in making a living depends on properties of context depends on properties of context AND systemAND system (sense, process, act, adapt)(sense, process, act, adapt)
Complexity and adaptation are Complexity and adaptation are inextricably linkedinextricably linked
Emergence of complex structure Emergence of complex structure through adaptation is elicited by through adaptation is elicited by problems posed by contextproblems posed by context
Success in making a living Success in making a living depends on properties of context depends on properties of context AND systemAND system (sense, process, act, adapt)(sense, process, act, adapt)
System’s ability to sense, process & act
on its own behalf
depends on what problems system has to solve to find resources and protect itself from danger
i.e. on system AND context
depends on what problems system has to solve to find resources and protect itself from danger
i.e. on system AND context
How hard is this?
How hard is this?
System’s ability to
adapt
complexitycomplexityadaptationadaptation
Requires, Requires, stimulates stimulates
and enables and enables adaptationadaptation Complexity
of contextComplexity of context
(from the system’s POV)
Makes life Makes life harder for harder for othersothers
Improves Improves ability to ability to deal with deal with
challengeschallenges
IncreasesIncreases
fitnessfitness
![Page 4: Success and Failure in Adaptation Dr Anne-Marie Grisogono Research Leader Land Systems Land Operations Division, DSTO](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082516/56649d6b5503460f94a49f91/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Factors for Success or Failure of AdaptationFactors for Success or Failure of Adaptation
For populations of systems:
Factors of Success
speed of ‘moving’ in fitness landscape to get off regions of declining fitness and find new suitable regions as they emerge
ability to stabilise, protect useful properties
ability to modify environment to maintain or increase habitability locally to current population, and foster emergence of habitable regions elsewhere
Factors of Failure
loss of agility in design space, eg by overspecialisation, reduced diversity
loss of useful information – leading to ‘mutational meltdown’
propensity to act on the environment in such a way as to decrease habitability either locally, or elsewhere
For populations of systems:
Factors of Success
speed of ‘moving’ in fitness landscape to get off regions of declining fitness and find new suitable regions as they emerge
ability to stabilise, protect useful properties
ability to modify environment to maintain or increase habitability locally to current population, and foster emergence of habitable regions elsewhere
Factors of Failure
loss of agility in design space, eg by overspecialisation, reduced diversity
loss of useful information – leading to ‘mutational meltdown’
propensity to act on the environment in such a way as to decrease habitability either locally, or elsewhere
For individual systems:
Factors of Success
speed of ‘moving’ in own fitness landscape, replacing capabilities of lower or declining fitness with new ones better suited to creating success in context,
ability to stabilise, protect useful properties
ability to modify environment to maintain or increase habitability locally, or foster emergence of habitable regions elsewhere
Factors of Failure
loss of agility eg by overspecialisation, getting set in its ways
loss of useful information – forgetting what it has learnt
acting in ways that decrease habitability locally, or elsewhere, eg by prioritising short-term gains over longer-term consequences
For individual systems:
Factors of Success
speed of ‘moving’ in own fitness landscape, replacing capabilities of lower or declining fitness with new ones better suited to creating success in context,
ability to stabilise, protect useful properties
ability to modify environment to maintain or increase habitability locally, or foster emergence of habitable regions elsewhere
Factors of Failure
loss of agility eg by overspecialisation, getting set in its ways
loss of useful information – forgetting what it has learnt
acting in ways that decrease habitability locally, or elsewhere, eg by prioritising short-term gains over longer-term consequences
![Page 5: Success and Failure in Adaptation Dr Anne-Marie Grisogono Research Leader Land Systems Land Operations Division, DSTO](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082516/56649d6b5503460f94a49f91/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
How to Study and Quantify these How to Study and Quantify these Factors and what Influences them?Factors and what Influences them?
![Page 6: Success and Failure in Adaptation Dr Anne-Marie Grisogono Research Leader Land Systems Land Operations Division, DSTO](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082516/56649d6b5503460f94a49f91/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
what adaptation is
what steers it
implementation strategies
what it deals with
what aspect of the system is adapting
where it is applied
what it takes to make them work
what it takes to improve them
Conceptual Framework for AdaptationConceptual Framework for Adaptation
Generic model of adaptation
Measures of success and failure
Types of adaptive mechanisms
Four Classes of adaptation
Five Levels of adaptation
Scale of adaptive mechanisms
Health of adaptive mechanisms
Factors that influence effectiveness
Variation, Interaction, Feedback, SelectionMoS, MoF, proxies,
indicators, correlationsPopulation size, cycle time,
randomness, parallelismstressor parameters, effects
and time scalesAdaptability of system and
adaptation parametersSystem parameters, sense,
process and act scalesContinuity, throughput,
alignment, driveOther parameters that
characterise adaptation mechanism
A lot of A lot of parameters!!parameters!!
See references in text
What gets tried
How it’s evaluated
How it’s retained or discarded
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Time constant of context
(Some of) What Influences Success or Failure of Adaptation(Some of) What Influences Success or Failure of Adaptation
Ability to move in fitness space
Ability to find and exploit opportunitiesand recognise & deal with threats
Ability to protect the good regions of design space
already populated
Ability to specialise but retain agility
How well system produces new
optionsHow well system evaluates new
options
size of population
depth, scope, concurrency of variations – increases space enormously but
access higher order effects
rate of variation
what aspects are variable
to produce higher order structure, existence of variable system parameters that create
the possibility for enduring relationships between systems
extent of variation – size of excursions
produced?
random or
directed
Genotype – phenotype map
How strict or tolerant selection is
How accurate evaluation is
How well selection
works
Time constant of adaptive cycle
Topology of fitness space
Rate of change of context
Modularity of map
Correlation with real fitness
types of change of
context
How fastevaluation
is
Ability to modify the environment to
increase habitability
How well system stabilises important
parts of genome
Accessible region of
phenospace
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The Bottom LinesThe Bottom Lines
Huge no of parameters characterise systems
Success of system depends on getting them right
‘right’ is complex and context dependent
Problem ‘solved’ by adaptive processes – evolution and learning
Huge no of parameters characterise systems
Success of system depends on getting them right
‘right’ is complex and context dependent
Problem ‘solved’ by adaptive processes – evolution and learning
But adaptation is not a free lunch
Huge no of parameters characterise adaptation
Success of adaptation depends on getting them right
‘right’ is complex and context dependent
also needs to be ‘solved’ by adaptive processes
We CAN do it!
But adaptation is not a free lunch
Huge no of parameters characterise adaptation
Success of adaptation depends on getting them right
‘right’ is complex and context dependent
also needs to be ‘solved’ by adaptive processes
We CAN do it!
Conceptual Framework for Adaptation explores how
Conceptual Framework for Adaptation explores how