success in medellín: explanations, limits and fragilities jorge giraldo-ramírez eafit university...
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Success in Medellín:Explanations, Limits and Fragilities
Jorge Giraldo-RamírezEAFIT University
Medellín, Colombia
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Washington, DCNovember, 2012
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Contents
1. Success: Some ExplanationsA. Changes in BehaviorB. Changes in Public Policy
2. Limits: External Threats3. Fragilities: Internal Challenges
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Contents
1. Success: Some ExplanationsA. Changes in BehaviorB. Changes in Public Policy
2. Limits: External Threats3. Fragilities: Internal Challenges
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Number of homicides and homicide rate, Medellín 1990-2011
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Monthly number of homicides, Medellín 2004-2012 (Sept.)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
50
100
150
200
250
300
Num
ber o
f hom
icid
es
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Two decades of inflections
• Tendencies leading to drastic reduction and two exceptions– 2000-2002: urbanization of national internal conflict– 2007-2009: fragmentation and competition among
criminal organizations• Structural change in homicide rates (6 years in last decade
with rates lower than 60. Only ones in 30 years)• Change in the main agents of homicidal violence (from
Cartel to Militias to Paramilitaries to armed gangs)• Territorial variations
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2009-
1990s2009-2010
1998-20022009-
2004-2008
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Contents
1. Success: Some ExplanationsA. Changes in BehaviorB. Changes in Public Policy
2. Limits: External Threats3. Fragilities: Internal Challenges
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Two fundamental aspects
1. Construction of the local State’s centrality (stateness)– Local State-building, specially in marginal and suburban
areas of the city– Certain, though contested, public force hegemony
2. National framework of security policies– Specific national intervention– Stronger coordination between levels of government
(local-regional-national)
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1. 1988-1994
• Pre-1995 governments faced severe limits (Leyva, 2010):– Relatively low budgets– High public debt– Low investment capacity
• Security was conceived as a responsibility of the national government
• Local authority action focused on coexistence (“convivencia”)
• Strategies: participation, alternative conflict resolution mechanisms, education and values
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2. 1995-2000
• Sergio Naranjo (1995-1997)– Qualitative turn: negotiations with armed groups– Unintended and negative consequences
• Juan Gómez Martínez (1997-2000)– Continuity– New framework: violence was associated with poverty
and inequality
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3. 2001-2003
• Luis Pérez Gutiérrez (2001-2003)– Break with previous policies and continuity– Oriented resources towards direct activities with
affected communities• National-level interventions (2003)– “Operación Orión” (16-18 October, 2003): the State
retakes Comuna 13– Diplomacy that ended with the demobilization of
paramilitary organization “Bloque Cacique Nutibara” (December, 2003)
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4. 2004-2011
• Sergio Fajardo (2004-2007) and Alonso Salazar (2008-2011)1. Successful national-level security policy and virtuous
insertion of local government in said policy2. Institutionalization of previous lessons and knowledge
(“Security, Defense, and Justice Master Plan”):• Modernization of security and justice apparatus• Permanent human rights unit• Historical memory programs• SISC• Participatory budget and civilian disarmament
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3. Emphasis on local institution-building:– Fight against the “delegitimization” of the State,
corruption and clientelism, which generate mistrust of public provision of security and justice within private armed groups
– “Exercising legitimate authority”– Recovery of urban territories and heavy investment
4. 2004-2011 (cont.)
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Security and Coexistence as % of Local Budget
1,79
0,46
1,031,29
3,443,67 3,59
3,28
4,02
3,60
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Inversión en Seguridad y Convivencia como % del presupuesto
Secretaría de Hacienda www.medellin.gov.co
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Contents
1. Success: Some ExplanationsA. Changes in BehaviorB. Changes in Public Policy
2. Limits: External Threats3. Fragilities: Internal Challenges
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Limits: Some Factors
1. Persistence of comparatively high homicide rates2. Regional environment3. Post-Conflict issues4. Youth and criminality5. Police force
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Source: CCSCGP (2012)
1. Persistence of Violence
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2. Regional Environment
High spatial and statistical correlations between:• Informality in land
possession• Illicit crops (coca)• Informal gold mining• Illegal armed groups• Violence indexes• Low institutional capacity
Source: Giraldo & Muñoz (2012).
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3. Post-Conflict Issues
Source: Howe & Nussio (2012)
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4. Youth and Criminality
• 45,000 men aged 14-18 (22.4% of the range) captured between 2002-2010 (Medina, Posso & Tamayo, 2011)
• ± 60% of men aged 14-18 living in poor and/or violent neighborhoods captured in 2002-2010
• Questions:– How to limit recruitment– How socially pervasive is crime
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5. Police Force
City Police per 1.000 inhab.
Cartagena 3,3
Bucaramanga 3,1
Cúcuta 3,1
Cali 2,9
Bogotá 2,3
Medellín 2,0
Barranquilla 1,9
• Despite the incidence of homicide in Medellín, the city has a comparatively low police force
Source: Acero (2012), own calculations.
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Contents
1. Success: Some ExplanationsA. Changes in BehaviorB. Changes in Public Policy
2. Limits: External Threats3. Fragilities: Internal Challenges
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Fragilities: Some Factors
1. Heavy displacement/migration from conflictive areas2. Disputes regarding the city model3. Competition between organized crime structures &
changes in models of criminal protection4. Urban social fragmentation
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4. Fragmented society
Six clusters, according to six factors:1. Demography2. Education3. labor market4. Poverty5. Mobility6. Security
Redder: worseGreener: betterSource: RiSE (2012).
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Characterization
• There is a cadre of organized crime, with waves of violence dependant upon variables strictly associated with drug trafficking and other illegal economies
• This generates an environment that catalyzes common violence by gangs, petty criminality, and intolerant and armed citizens
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Summary
• Local governments capacity to learn from previous experiences
• Citizen initiatives regarding security and peaceful coexistence
• Social consensus surrounding the State• Strengthening of the State
• Contested by criminal dynamics and externalities
• Challenges for Medellín in the coming years…