successful policy mixes to tackle the impact of rising inequalities on children: an eu-wide...
TRANSCRIPT
Successful policy mixes to tackle the impact of rising inequalities on children: an EU-wide
comparison
- early draft -
András GábosTÁRKI Social Research Institute
GINI YEAR-ONE CONFERENCEWP 6-3: Policy analysis - Towards an integrated approach
Milan, 4-5 February 2011
Aim of the paper
To comparatively evaluate the outcomes of MSs, their relative performance, and the key challenges in each MS in the field of child poverty and
well-being
To draw policy conclusionsBy updating and deepen an existing analysis on ChP & SE in the EU using an analyitical framework that relies on agreed Social OMC
indicators being aware that agreed indicators are subject to political and
methodological changes
1. What has been done so far?
The paper builds on EU Task-Force on ChP and WB in the EU (2008) TÁRKI - Applica (2010)
Child mainstreming process within the European Union (started in 2005)Assessing the performance of EU-27 MSs in the field of child poverty in four dimensions Child poverty risk outcomes Joblessness In-work poverty Impact of social transfers
Child poverty outcomes
At-risk-of-poverty rates (overall population and children) and relative median poverty gap, EU-27, 2008
Source: EUROSTAT, own estimations based on EU-SILC UDB (01.08.2010).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
DK FI SI SE NL CZ CY AT DE SK FR BE EE IE HU LU MT EU-27
PL UK PT LT EL ES LV IT BG RO
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
National at-risk-of-poverty rate Children at-risk-of-poverty rate Relative median poverty gap - children
Children living in jobless households
Share of children (0-17) and adults (18-59 – not students) living in jobless hhs, EU-27*, 2008
Source: EUROSTAT (EU-LFS) *Data for Sweden are from EU-SILC (WI=0.2).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
SI DK EL LU CY FI PT NL SE* AT ES IT EE CZ LV PL FR SK MT EU-27
DE LT RO BG BE IE HU UK
Share of adults in jobless households Share of children in jobless households
Poverty risk of children in in-work hhsEU-27*, 2008
Source: own calculations based on EU-SILC 2008. *No data available for Malta. Data for France are from 2007.
In-work households: WI ≥ 0.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CZ DK SE FI SI BE DE IE NL AT HU CY BG UK SK EE EU-27
LU LT PT PL LV IT EL ES RO
At-risk-of-poverty rate of adults in in-work hhs At-risk-of-poverty rate of ch in in-work hhs
The effectiveness of social transfers, EU-27*, 2008
Source: EUROSTAT, own calculations based on EU-SILC 2008 (version 01.03.2010).
The effectiveness of social transfers (excl. pensions), EU-27, 2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
DK FI SI SE NL CZ CY AT DE SK FR BE EE IE HU LU MT EU-27
PL UK PT LT EL ES LV IT BG RO
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
At-risk-of-poverty rate of children after social trannsfers (excl. pensions)
At-risk-of-poverty rate of children before social trannsfers (excl. pensions)
Poverty reduction impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) on child poverty
Child poverty outcomes – country clusters
Indicators included in this task: at-risk-of-poverty rate relative median poverty gap both based on EU-SILC
z-scores based on the difference between the
national figure for children and the overall national figure
the difference between the national figure and the EU average for children
z-scores added together, without weightingSix clusters
to maximise the “steps” between the groups
to minimise the variations within the groups
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
DK CY FI SI NL SE DE AT EE BE FR CZ IE MT LU UK HU SK LV EL PL LT PT ES IT BG RO
Relative outcomes of countries related to child poverty risk and main determinants
Group A: good performers in all dimensions
Child poverty risk outcomes Joblessness
In-work poverty
Impact of social tr.
Group A DK + + + + + + + ++ + + +
EE + + + + –
FR + + + + + +
CY + + + + + + + –
NL + + + + + + +
AT + + + + + + + + +
SI + + + + + + + + + +
FI + + + + + + + + + + +
SE + + + + + + + + + +
Relative outcomes of countries related to child poverty risk and main determinants
Child poverty risk
outcomes JoblessnessIn-work
povertyImpact of
social tr.
Group B
BE + – + + + +
CZ + – + + + + +
DE + + – + + + +
IE + – – + + + + +
HU – – – + + + +
BG – – – – + – – –
Group B: joblessness is key challenge
Relative outcomes of countries related to child poverty risk and main determinants
Child poverty risk outcomes Joblessness
In-work poverty
Impact of social tr.
Group C
LV – – – – – –
LT – – – – – –
SK – – – +
UK – – – – – +
RO – – – – – – – – –
Group C: relatively bad performance in all dimensions
Relative outcomes of countries related to child poverty risk and main determinants
Child poverty risk outcomes Joblessness
In-work poverty
Impact of social tr.
Group D
EL – – + + + – – – – –
ES – – + – – – – – –
IT – – + + – – – – –
LU – + + + – – +
PL – – + – – –
PT – – + + – – – –
Group D: in-work poverty is key challenge
2. Questions and further work
Robustness of the analytical framework
To further refine country clusters, by considering alternative outcome measures alternative measures of joblessness work intensity and poverty risk household composition
To further exploring within-group differences
Robustness of the anayltical framework
2005 2006 2007 2008BE B B B B xx xBG BCZ B B B B xx xDK A A A A xx xDE B B B B xx xEE B B B A xIE B B B B xx x
EL D D D D xx xES D D D D xx xFR B A A A xIT D D D D xx x
CY A A A A xx xLV D D C CLT D D C CLU D D D D xx xHU C C B BMT C CNL A A A A xx xAT A A A A xx xPL D D D D xx xPT D D D D xx xRO CSI A A A A xx x
SK C B B CFI A A A A xx x
SE A A A A xx xUK C C B C x
Income poverty and material deprivation
Source: own estimations based on EU-SILC 2008 (version 01.08.2010), following Atkinson and Marlier (2010). Data for France and Malta are not available from the EU-SILC UDB.
NP & NMD P MD P & MD Total Cons. id. BE 77 9 6 8 100 85 CZ 75 6 12 7 100 82 DK 87 7 4 2 100 89 DE 76 8 8 7 100 83 EE 77 10 5 7 100 85 IE 71 12 11 6 100 78 EL 68 14 9 9 100 77 ES 70 19 5 5 100 75 FR IT 66 14 9 10 100 76 CY 72 7 15 6 100 78 LV 56 8 20 16 100 72 LT 64 11 13 12 100 76 LU 79 16 1 4 100 83 HU 54 7 27 13 100 67 NL 84 9 3 4 100 88 AT 76 8 9 7 100 83 PL 59 10 19 12 100 71 PT 63 12 14 11 100 74 SI 79 7 10 4 100 83 SK 64 7 19 10 100 74 FI 83 8 6 4 100 86 SE 84 10 3 3 100 87 UK 69 14 9 9 100 77 MT BG 49 2 26 24 100 73 RO 37 6 30 27 100 64 EU-27 69 11 11 9 100 78
Joblessness: EU-LFS vs EU-SILC
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
EU-LFS
EU
-SIL
C
UK
LT
RO
SKLVEE
ES
BE
IE
HU
Source:EUROSTAT, own estimations based on EU-SILC 2008 (version 01.08.2010). Data for France and Malta are not available from the EU-SILC UDB.
Child poverty risk by work intensity, weighted overall EU-27*, 2008
Source: own estimations based on EU-SILC 2008 (version 01.08.2010). *Excl. FR, MT.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
WI=0 WI=0-0.2 WI=0.2-0.33 WI=0.33-0.49
WI=0.5 WI=0.5-0.66 WI=0.66-0.75
WI=0.75-0.99
WI=1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Risk of poverty Share of children
Jobless and job poor
One breadwinner
Job rich
Poverty risk of children in in-work hhsEU-27*, 2008
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
CZ DK SE FI SI BE DE IE NL AT HU CY BG UK SK EE EU-27
LU LT PT PL LV IT EL ES RO
At-risk-of-poverty rate of adults in in-work hhs At-risk-of-poverty rate of ch in in-work hhs
Source: own calculations based on EU-SILC 2008. *No data available for Malta. Data for France are from 2007.
In-work households: WI ≥ 0.5
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
CZ DE DK AT SE IE HU FI UK NL BE LU EE EU-27
BG PL CY LT SK EL SI LV IT RO PT ES
At-risk-of-poverty rate of adults in wi=0.5 hhs At-risk-of-poverty rate of adults in wi=0.5 hhs
One bw households: WI = 0.5
Joint activity status of parents and the poverty risk of children, EU-27*, 2008
Source: own estimations based on EU-SILC 2008 (version 01.08.2010). *Excl. FR, MT.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
JL SP JL Low activity SP PT 1 BW SP FT 1.5 BW 2 BW
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