Sudan

And

Climate Change 2/9/2008 Geneva

Ismail Elgizouli ,Fredrich Ebert Foundation ,Sudan

sm

•Introduction:•Sudan is located in the northeastern side of

Africa and its area is about 2.5 million square kilometers

•The population in the range 35-40 million •The country is entirely depends on agriculture

(rain-fed and irrigated farming).• A vulnerable country in the context of climate

change – witnessed cycles of drought and floods

Constitutions of the Republic of Sudan 2005

With respect to the protection of the environment chapter 2 article 11 of the Interim National Constitutions of the Republic of the Sudan States:

i. The people of the Sudan shall have the right to clean and diverse environment; the State and the citizen have the duty to preserve and promote the country’s Biodiversity.

ii. The State shall not purse any policy, or permit any action which may adversely affect the existence of any species of animal or vegetative life, their natural or adopted habitat.

iii. The State shall promote, through legislation, sustainable utilization of natural resources and best practices with respect to their management

•Climate of Sudan

The climate zones as shown in fig.: • vary from desert type in the north to semi desert in in north central parts of the country•In the central parts semi-arid through arid to dry sub-humid•Humid in the south

SUDAN CLIMATE ZONES FOR THE PERIOD 1971-2000

ABH

ABN

AQQ

ARB

ARM

ATB

BAR

BNS

DMZ

DNG

DUM

NSR

FSH

GDF

GEN

HAL

HAS

HDB

HLG

JUB

KDG

KHA

KHW

KRM

KSL

KST

KUR

MLK

NHD

NYL

OBD

PSD

RAG

RNKRSH

SNR

SHW

SHM

SHN

TKR

TOR

UMB

WAU

WHF

WMD

NAG

MAR

PIB

8.00YAM

KAP

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DESERT

SEMI-DESERT

DRY

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SUB-HUMID

HUMID

Climate change impacts can now be Climate change impacts can now be estimated more systematically and for a estimated more systematically and for a greater range of sectors and regionsgreater range of sectors and regions

Dust-storm

Floods and droughts

Climate Change in SudanVulnerability & Adaptation – Rationale in Sudan:• There is an ample evidence that climate has reported a clear change in the climate during the last three decades of the twentieth century. •Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of climate change:

• The majority of its land is quite sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation• Fragile ecosystem• Weak infrastructure and economy• Food security is mainly determined by rainfall• More than 70% of Sudan population is directly dependent on climate-sensitive resources for their livelihood.

Sectors Affected by Global Warming:• Water Sector (resources and suppliers)• Agriculture and Natural Resources• Biodiversity• Health Sector (vector and epidemic diseases)• Industrial Economy• Political Geography (conflicts due to limitation in natural resources)• Affects the future of the new generation.

Impacts of Global Warming on Water Resources Sector:• Rising in temperature will increase the rate of evaporation which is loss of water for utilization.• Global warming will lead to climate change and hence accelerates the frequency of occurrence of the extreme climate events (drought/floods) tropical cyclones- dust-storms that cause the natural disasters.• Decline in hydroelectric power

Climate change projections in milestone year 2030 in Sudan (Kordofan Region):

• From the report of the first national communication of Sudan in climate change issue some results had been achieved in Greater Kordofan State as follows:

• The projected temperature in 2030 varies between 0.5 to 1˚C while globally it is 0.6 ˚C. The area chosen considered as one of the most vulnerable areas and located in the heart of Sudan

Water resources:• Reduced groundwater recharge – either through decreased precipitation or increased temperature and evaporation – has grave repercussions for Sudan. • National studies have shown that soil moisture would decline under future climate change. •When coupled with increased water consumption, population growth, high variation in rainfall and the high rate of evaporation, a looming water crisis appears likely

Agriculture: • Combined with growing socioeconomic pressures, the imposition of climate variability and climate change is likely to intensify the ongoing process of desertification of arable areas. • Humid agro climatic zones will shift southward, rendering areas of the North increasingly unsuitable for agriculture. Crop production is predicted to decline substantially for both millet and sorghum (see figure below ). • The area of arable land as well as the important Gum Arabic belt would likely also decrease, with attendant impacts on both local incomes and food security would drop;

Projected agricultural yields in Sudan with climate changeSource: based on results of Sudan’s First National Communication

under the UNFCCC, 2003

0

100

200

300

400

500

1961-90 2060

Yie

ld (

kg

/he

cta

re

)

sorghummillet

• Although, some parts in the region reflected a rise in precipitation, but the average annual rate of evapo-transpiration, shows a jump from 2773 to 3110 mms which is almost close to 12%. Due to rise in temp.(1-3˚ C)• The population is projected to increase and this will be accompanied by increase in water consumption.•The yield in the main cereals is expected to decline between 13 to 82% for sorghum and 20 to 76% for millet from south to north of the region• The humid zones will shift southwards.• To conclude that, this assessment study generally reflects the situation in Sudan in the context of climate change. There is a question arises what will happen to the climate zones?

Public health:• Communities in Sudan would be exposed to significantly increased risk of malaria under climate change.• Studies in Kordofan State, for example, have shown that the risk of transmission potential could increase substantially by 2060 (see figure below ). • If realized, not only would the overburdened health care system experience extreme stress but the disease would exact a heavy toll on local communities

Malaria transmission relative to baseline in Sudan, 2060Source: Sudan’s First National Communication under the UNFCCC,

2003

Climate change leads to drought which implies to Limitation in natural resources… ..conflicts Food security collapse……famine… displaced

people; refugees… .misuse of natural resources

Floods… .imply to migration of people from rural and remote areas to the cities which causes stress on service infrastructure …spoil stability and security conditions

�Spreading of epidemic and vector diseases … production declines consequently affects the GDP.

Socioeconomic impacts

: Climate Change Socioeconomic Impacts

A B H

A BN

A Q Q

A R B

A R M

A TB

B A R

B N S

D M Z

D N G

D U M

N S R

FS H

G D F

G E N

H A L

H A S

H D B

H LG

JU B

K D G

K H A

KH W

K R M

K S L

K S T

K U R

M LK

N H D

N Y L

O B D

P S D

R A G

R N KR S H

S N R

S H W

S H M

S H N

TK R

TO R

U M B

W A U

W H F

W M D

N A G

M A R

P IB

8.00Y A M

K A P

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Drought

Conflicts in Darfur

Conflicts

Acutely vulnerable areas in Sudan

Dar Fur and C.C

In recent years, increasing drought cycles and the Sahara's southward expansion have created conflicts between nomadic and sedentary groups over shortages of water and land.

Dar Fur and C.C

The combination of decades of drought, desertification, and overpopulation are among the causes of the Darfur conflict, because the nomads searching for water have to take their livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by farming communities

What did they say about Dar Fur and C. C

�"The blunt truth is that the lack of water and agricultural land is a significant contributory factor to the tragic conflict we see unfolding in Dar Fur. We should see this as a warning sign." The British Home Secretary Jhon Reid ,March 2006

“Chalking the Dar Fur conflict up to climate change alone would be an oversimplification “

Eric Reeves ,Smith College

Michael Klare, a global security specialist at Hampshire College and author of the book Resource Wars—argue that Darfur is part of an emerging pattern of resource conflict: "I don't think you can separate climate change from population growth, rising consumption patterns and globalization... It's really one phenomenon

April 18, 2008 (PARIS) — French President Nicolas Sarkozy told the world’s biggest carbon polluters Friday that global warming was becoming a driver of hunger, unrest and conflict, with the war in Dar Fur a concrete example

"In Darfur, we see this explosive mixture from the impact of climate change, which prompts emigration by increasingly impoverished people, which then has consequences in war," French President Sarkozy

ENDTHANK YOU