sulphuric acid market outlook the outlook for sulphuric ... · 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008...
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31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK
Tel +44 20 7903 2132 Fax +44 20 7833 4973
www.britishsulphur.com
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LONDON | BEIJING | WASHINGTON | RALEIGH | MINNEAPOLIS
Sulphuric Acid Market Outlook
The Outlook for Sulphuric Acid
Demand for Fertilizers, Metal and
Uranium
Joanne Peacock, CRU International/BSC
Creon – Moscow – December 2009
2
This presentation will review:
• Global Overview and Recent Market Developments
– Production
– Consumption
– Trade
– Price
• The Demand Outlook for:
– Fertilizers
– Copper
– Nickel
– Uranium
• Key Conclusions
Global Acid Production 1999-2009
Involuntary acid market share rises from 23% to 31%
causing a decline in voluntary production
0
50
100
150
200
250
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(f)
Other Pyrites Brimstone Smelter Acid
(million tonnes)
Involuntary production up 8% in 11 years
Ni Leaching1% Cu Leaching
5% TiO23%
Phosphate Fertilizer
57%
AS8%
Uranium1%
Other25%
Global Acid Consumption 2008
Fertiliser industry dominates global demand - Base Metal and
Uranium leaching represent a small proportion (6%)
2.7
1.1
1.7
3.0
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.3
Global Sulphuric Acid Trade 2008
<5% of global output travels extra-regionally
0.4
█ Net Acid Imports (mt) █ Net Acid Exports (mt) █ Total Acid Exports (mt)
Europe: 4.3
E Asia: 4.8
Asia
3.0
-40
10
60
110
160
210
260
310
360
410
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (f)
fob Tampa Acid $/t cfr NW Europe Acid $/t
cif Mejillones Acid (contract) $/t cif Mejillones Acid (spot) $/t
Sulphuric Acid Pricing 1989 – 2009
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK
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Sulphuric Acid Demand Outlook –
Phosphoric Acid
Phosphoric Acid & SSP Production - 2008
38.7 million tonnes of P2O
5
1.2
3.2
5.5
8.2
0.7
1.9
1.43.8
0.6
11.3
0.9
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Moroccan 100% Phos Acid
Tampa DAP
Black Sea MAPRock
Phosphate Prices Return To Normal
Phosphoric Acid Production beginning to rebound
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
All Others
Morocco
China
USA
8 Million
tonnes P2O5
New Phosphoric Acid Capacity Growth Slowing
Total New Capacity 6.8 million tonnes by 2012
Morocco 375,000 tonnes @ Jorf Lasfar in 2012
Tunisia 330,000 tonnes @ Skhira in 2011
Tunisia 180,000 tonnes @ M’Dilla in 2012
Saudi Arabia 1.5 million tonnes @ Ras az Zawr in 2010/11
Brazil 150,000 tonnes @ Araxa in 2011
Brazil 230,000 tonnes @ Uberaba in 2012
Vietnam 162,000 tonnes @ Dinh Vu in 2009/10
Australia 150,000 tonnes @ TBD in 2012
China 3.7 million tonnes @ TBD before 2012
Long-Term Phosphate Fertilizer Consumption
growing 2.4% or
about 1.1 million tonnes P2O
5 per year
Sulphuric Acid Demand – Phosphoric Acid,
by Region, 2007-2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(m to
nn
es
)
Region (CAGR 2007-2017)
Oceania (4.5%)
Asia (1.7%)
S & C America (5.9%)
N America (-1.6%)
Africa/Middle East (3.6%)
CIS (1.6%)
Europe (-5.6%)
Data: British Sulphur Consultants
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Sulphuric Acid Demand Outlook –
Copper, Nickel, Uranium
Forecast Sulphuric Acid Demand – Copper, Nickel
and Uranium, 2007 - 2017
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(‘00
0 t
on
nes
)
Copper Nickel Uranium
2007-2017 CAGR
Cu: 2.5%
Ni: 18.5
U: 7.9%
Global Copper Production Forecast, 2008-2017
Production from EW declining as ore bodies deplete
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
y-o
-y p
erc
en
tag
e c
han
ge
‘00
0 t
on
nes
re
co
ve
rab
le C
u
Smelter EW Growth Rate Smelter Growth Rate SXEW
Data: CRU Analysis
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017
Africa Asia Australasia Europe N America S&C America CIS
‘000 t
on
nes c
on
tain
ed
Ni
HPAL & HL Other (Smelting)
Regional Nickel Production, 2017 versus 2008
Growth in acid demand is forecast in four regions
Data: CRU Analysis
Forecast Sulphuric Acid Use for Nickel Leaching
By 2013, nine HL/HPAL projects in operation adding
4mt acid demand
Operation Country Technology Ni Prod
2013, '000
tpy
H2SO4 Cons.
t/t of Ni prod.
(Data: CRU)
H2SO4 Cons.
‘000 t
Murrin Murrin Australia HPAL 31 32 1,008
Coral Bay Philippines HPAL 20 26 520
Moa Bay/Fort
Saskatchewan Cuba HPAL 42 25 1,050
Goro New Caledonia HPAL 55 26 1,452
Talvivaara Finland Bio HL 33 8 264
Ramu River PNG HPAL 31 36 1,107
Ambatovy Madagascar HPAL 18 30 545
Caldag Turkey HL 16 49 784
Taganito,
Mindanao Philippines HPAL 1** 26 26
Grand Total 248 29* 6,756
Data: CRU Analysis/BSC Note: *Average ** Start up, full capacity = 30ktes
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017
Europe Africa N America S&C America Asia Oceania CIS
‘000 t
on
nes
Sulphuric Acid for Uranium, 2017 versus 2008
Strong growth forecast in Africa and CIS, exceeding local
smelter acid supply
Sulphur Burning Projects – Uranium
Regional acid deficits will lead to further investment in
sulphur burning capacity
Country Company Location Start-up
Date
Status Capacity
‘000 tCIS:
Russia TVEL Chita* 2009 Operational 180
KazakhstanKazatomprom/
Uranium One
Stepnogorsk
(Replacement)2010 Firm 180
KazakhstanKazatomprom/
Uranium OneZhanakorgan 2011 Firm 500
Africa:
Malawi Paladin Energy Kayelekera† 2009 Firm 76
Namibia Rossing Swakopmund Unknown On Hold 396
Niger Areva Imouraren 2013 PreFS 202
South Africa Various Rand Unknown PreFS Unknown
Namibia Various Swakopmund Unknown PreFS Unknown
21
KEY CONCLUSIONS
• The production of sulphuric acid on an involuntary basis continues to
grow.
• Demand for sulphur and sulphuric acid for fertilizers will recover and is
forecast to remain steady.
• Demand for sulphuric acid for copper leaching appears to be reaching its
peak; some copper producers are now turning to sulphur burning for
strategic and commercial reasons.
• New demand for acid for nickel and uranium leaching will be mainly met
by elemental sulphur.
• In the longer term, a rationalisation of sulphuric acid production capacity in
some acid –producing regions will be required, whilst re-investment
continues to take place elsewhere.
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK
Tel +44 20 7903 2132 Fax +44 20 7833 4973
www.britishsulphur.com
www.crugroup.com
LONDON | BEIJING | WASHINGTON | RALEIGH | MINNEAPOLIS
THANK YOU!
Sulphuric Acid
Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service
Joanne Peacock
Tel: +44 20 7903 2121
Email: [email protected]