Analysis of the Labour Economy 2015

（White Paper on the Labour Economy 2015)

－Measures for Labour Productivity and Employment/Labour Issues－

[Summary]

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

September 2015

－ Measures for Labour Productivity and Employment/Labour Issues －

[Outline]

Analysis of the Labour Economy 2015

(White Paper on the Labour Economy 2015)

7,005

6,499

6,328 6,149

5,478

6,711

7,367

2.01 1.99

2.38

2.52

2.20

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

19992000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

妥結額（右目盛） 厚生労働省

経団連（大手） 連合

(%)

(Year)

(Yen) MHLW Agreed amount

(right axis)

Japan Business Federation (Large-scale businesses)

1.21

0.96 0.96 0.95

0.77 0.62

0.46 0.39

0.28 0.5

1.0

Gen

eral

m

ach

iner

y C

hem

ical

Tra

nspo

rtat

ion

equi

pmen

t

Fin

ance

/ In

sura

nce

Me

tals

Info

rmat

ion

and

Com

mun

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ion

Co

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ruct

ion

Elec

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eq

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men

t

Tran

spo

rt/

war

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ng

Wh

ole

sale

/ re

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trad

e

Rea

l est

ate

Eati

ng

and

d

rin

kin

g se

rvic

es,

acco

mm

od

atio

ns

Fig.3 [2000 - 2006] Japan’s labour productivity level by industry (U.S. = 1)

1.20

Elec

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ity,

gas

, an

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ater

Oth

er

man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

0.91

0.61

0.39 0.53

1.5

2.0

[July 2006] 1.08

[August 2009] 0.42

[March 2015] 1.15

[July 2006] 0.64

[November 2009] 0.25

[March 2015] 0.71

(July 2009) 5.5

(March 2015) 3.4

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2002

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

(Year)

Unemployment rate (right axis)

Ratio of active job openings to active job applicants

Active job openings-to-applicants ratio for regular employees

((Time(s))

(%)

Outline of the Analysis of the Labour Economy 2015

The white paper was analyzed under the title “Measures for Labour Productivity and Employment/Labour Issues” for the purpose of maintaining and enhancing the economic vitality by overcoming the supply limitation, i.e. the shrinking labour force as a result of the decline in birthrate and demographic aging, and by enabling continued increase in wages.

Chapter 1: Trends and features of the labour economy

In order to sustain a virtuous economic cycle, increase in wages is important for stimulating consumption. For this reason, measures for enhancing labour productivity are indispensable.

When compared with the labour productivity levels of European and North American countries, Japan has a comparable growth rate though the level has dropped.

When Japan’s labour productivity levels by industry are compared with those of the U.S., the levels in Japan are lower mainly in the non-manufacturing industries, possibly due to the considerably smaller information technology (IT) capital investments made in Japan compared to those made in the U.S. Furthermore, while IT investments simultaneously accompany investments in brand equity, organizational structure, and human capital that contribute to growth, it is our challenge that such investments made in Japan are also extremely small.

Chapter 2: Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy

Employment conditions are steadily improving: the FY2014 average unemployment rate was 3.5%, the lowest rate in 17 years, and the FY 2014 average ratio of active job openings to active job applicants was 1.11, the highest ratio in 23 years. Furthermore, employment of regular workers increased, and the number of workers involuntarily working as non-regular workers decreased.

As a result of the shunto (annual spring wage offensive) of 2015, agreed amount and the wage increase rate both increased compared to the previous year. In addition, small and medium-sized companies tended to increase wages.

Fig. 2 Results of wage increase Fig. 1 Transition of the unemployment rate and the ratio of active job openings

to active job applicants

1.08

0.90

0.80 0.63 0.50 0.48 0.46 0.41

0.14 0.10

0.5

1.5

2.0

1.0

Fig.4 [2000 – 2006] Japan’s IT capital investment by industry (U.S. = 1)

0.91 0.82

0.80 0.70

Elec

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gas

, an

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In

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Me

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Ch

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Fin

ance

/ In

sura

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Wh

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/ re

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Gen

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Co

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Horizontal axis: Labour input by industry / Vertical axis: Man-hour(s) (Fig. 3 & 4) i

Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO)

Tra

nspo

rtat

ion

equi

pmen

t

ii

7.5

37.4 42.6

8.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

絶対に大手がよい

自分のやりたい仕事が

できるのであれば大手

企業がよい

やりがいのある仕事で

あれば中堅・中小企業

でもよい

中堅・中小企業がよい

(%)

30.2 21.6

57.2 63.0

12.6 15.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

短縮された

変わらない

（よく分からない

を含む）

Fig. 6 Assessment of labour productivity by companies with and without overtime reduction (in

comparison with industry peers)

Low or Rather low

Cannot specify / Do not know

(%)

High or Rather high

58.5

38.2

22.4 23.9 18.1

67.5

53.0 49.0

22.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

業務の繁閑が激しい

から、突発的な業務が

生じやすいから

人手不足だから

仕事の性質や顧客の

都合上、所定外でないと

できない仕事があるから

自分が納得できるまで

仕上げたいから

能力・技術不足のため

Fig. 5 Causes of overtime work (workers and employers)

(%)

Workers Employers

y = -2.7599x + 93.857

R² = 0.602

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21Em

plo

yme

nt

rate

of

fem

ales

of

the

ch

ild-r

ear

ing

gen

era

tio

n

(%)

Ratio of workers of the child-rearing generation working long hours

(%)

(-8.250) (19.346)

Chapter 3: For the realization of more effective work styles

Chapter 4: Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline

In order to encourage labour participation, work styles must be reviewed; e.g. correction of long working hours.

Reasons for the occurrence of overtime work given by both employers and workers include fluctuation in the amount of work, staff shortage, and customer service duties. In addition, while many employers responded as overtime being caused by workers’ lack of ability and skills, many workers responded that they want to produce satisfactory products/results based on their own standards.

Various efforts made by companies that worked on reducing overtime work and succeeded in overtime reduction include work condition reality check, alerting, reviewing of details and distribution of duties, and appeals from top executives. Such companies tend to regard themselves as having higher labour productivity in comparison with those of industry peers. (According to the responses given in company interviews, the positive effects of reduction in work hours were fatigue reduction and self-improvement.)

Regional economy vitalization is crucial to the economic growth of our country. Private final consumption expenditure contributes significantly to the growth of local economies. Accordingly, we must encourage labour participation by females and seniors, and also improve labour productivity since it is the prerequisite for raising income levels.

Regional labour productivity tends to improve when population, businesses, as well as human resources (e.g. people who have received higher education at universities or junior colleges, and people who work on self-development) concentrate in the region. To enhance this human resource group, improvements in the employment situation and attractive employment opportunities are needed.

Regional economic growth can be supported through efforts to secure workers in the era of population decline by encouraging females of the child-rearing generation to work; this can be done by providing sufficient day-care center capacity and suppressing long working hours to create an environment that enables the balancing of work and child-rearing.

y = 0.1115x + 7.7743 (6.809) (92.793)

R² = 0.5075

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

8.8

3 4 5 6 7 8

Lab

ou

r p

rod

uct

ivit

y (l

og-

tran

sfo

rmed

val

ue)

Density of graduates of higher education institutes (log-transformed value)

Fig. 9 Relationship between employment rate of females belonging to the child-rearing generation and day-care center capacity rate / rate of workers working long hours

(Yen / man hour)

(Number of graduates of higher education institutes/km2) (Number of people who work on self-development/km2)

Extr

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w

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/ Fr

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Staf

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Du

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th

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ork

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to t

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of

the

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s

To p

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or

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of

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q

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ity

Lack

of

abili

ty a

nd

ski

lls

Reduced Not changed (including “Not

clear”) (Whether or not overtime was reduced)

Fig.8 Job expectations of university students

(Class of 2015) Fig. 7 Relationship between human resource concentration and labour productivity

Def

init

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wan

t to

wo

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A la

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A s

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y

y = 0.1139x + 7.7988 (7.136) (101.083)

R² = 0.5309

8

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

8.8

3 4 5 6 7 8

Density of people who work on self-development (log-transformed value)

Lab

ou

r p

rod

uct

ivit

y (l

og-

tran

sfo

rmed

val

ue)

(Yen / man hour)

－ Measures for Labour Productivity and Employment/Labour Issues －

[Overview]

Analysis of the Labour Economy 2015

(White Paper on the Labour Economy 2015)

Chapter 1 Trends and features of the labour economy － Trends of employment, unemployment, etc. －

Employment conditions are steadily improving: the FY2014 average unemployment rate was 3.5%, the lowest rate in 17 years, and the FY 2014 average ratio of active job openings to active job applicants was 1.11, the highest ratio in 23 years. Furthermore, the active job openings-to-applicants ratio for regular employees reached a record high in December 2014 at 0.71.

Employment of regular workers increased, and the number of workers involuntarily working as non-regular workers consecutively decreased for four consecutive quarters.

Source: Prepared based on “Report on Employment Service,” Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW), “Labour Force Survey”, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) (left figure), and “Labour Force Survey (detailed tabulation),” Statistics Bureau, MIC (right figure). 1

[July 2006] 1.08

[August 2009] 0.42

[March 2015] 1.15

[July 2006] 0.64

[November 2009] 0.25

[December 2014] 0.71

[March 2015] 0.71

(July 2009) 5.5

(March 2015) 3.4

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2002

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Transition of the unemployment rate and the ratio of active job openings to active job applicants

(Year)

Unemployment rate (right axis)

Ratio of active job openings to active job applicants

Active job openings-to-applicants ratio for regular employees

(Time(s)) (%)

-43 -34 -29 -25 -20 -8

-3 -3

10

37 49 48 44

32 11 20 15 4

-11 -19 -3 -21 -38

-6

13 0

33

28

57 31

77

67

30 24

24

6

14

52 49

75

39

28

52 37

52

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ

2013 2014 2015

Transition of the number of employees

[Female] Non-regular staffs

and employees

[Male] Non-regular staffs

and employees

[Male] Regular staffs and employees [Female]

Regular staffs and employees

(Year/period)

Difference from the same period last year (10,000 persons)

[Total of male and female]

0

-15 -17

-7

-21

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ

2014 15

15 to 24 years old

65 years old and over

25 to 34 years old

35 to 64 years old

Difference from the same period last year (10,000 persons)

(Year/period)

Transition of the number of workers involuntarily working as non-regular workers

Total of all ages

Chapter 1 Trends and features of the labour economy － Trend of wages －

Nominal wages in FY 2014 increased for the first time in four years mainly due to the increase in special wages and scheduled wages of full-time workers. As a result of the shunto(annual spring wage offensive), agreed amount and the wage increase rate both increased compared to those of the previous year. In addition, wage increases were observed also in small and medium-sized companies.

Hourly wages of part-time workers also increased. Consequently, the wage gap between part-time workers and full-time workers has narrowed.

Source: Prepared based on “Monthly Labour Survey,” MHLW (left and lower right figures), “Situation of Demands and Conclusions of Negotiations for Wage Increase in Major Private Companies (Springtime),” MHLW, “Settlement Results of the Labour-Management Negotiations in the Springtime in Large-Scale Businesses (weighted average) (final results),” Japan Business Federation, and “Results of Final Responses to the Policy for Spring Struggle for a Better Life,” Japanese Trade Union Confederation (upper right figure).

2

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1994 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Transition of the total sum of cash earnings (%)

Percentage change from the previous year of the total

sum of cash earnings of all workers

(FY)

Contribution of the total sum of cash earnings of

part-time workers

Contribution of the non-scheduled

wages of full-time workers

Contribution of the scheduled wages of

full-time workers

Contribution of the special wages of full-time workers

Contribution of the ratio of part-time

workers

7,005

6,499 6,328 6,149

5,478

6,711

7,367

2.01 1.99

2.38

2.52

2.20

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

1999 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Results of wage increase

妥結額（右目盛） 厚生労働省

経団連（大手） 連合

(%)

(Year)

1,010

1,020

1,030

1,040

1,050

1,060

1,070

1,080

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

2010 11 12 13 14 15

Transition of the hourly wage of part-time workers

Ratio of the hourly wage of part-time workers to the hourly wage of full-time workers

Hourly wage of part-time workers (right axis)

(Hourly wage of full-time workers = 100) (Yen)

(Year)

Agreed amount (right axis) MHLW

Japan Business Federation (Large-scale businesses)

Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO)

90

100

110

120

130

140

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Japan

(1995 = 100)

(Year)

Real labour productivity per person

Real wage per employee

Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy

－ Wage stagnation in the midst of deflation and the causes (1) －

While real wages are increasing in the midst of increasing real labour productivity in the euro area and in the U.S., in Japan, real wages are stagnating in the midst of increasing real labour productivity.

Source: Prepared based on OECD.Stat.

International comparison of real wages and real labour productivity

90

100

110

120

130

140

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Euro area (1995 = 100)

(Year)

90

100

110

120

130

140

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

U.S. (1995 = 100)

(Year)

3

Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy

－ Wage stagnation in the midst of deflation and the causes (2) －

While the proportion of operating income in the added value of companies has been increasing, the proportion of labour cost (labour share) has decreased, especially from 2000 through 2004; the labour share of large companies has been showing a downward trend. This has been one of the causes of wage stagnation.

The worsening of terms of trade caused by the drop in export prices has cancelled out the upward pressure on wages caused by the increase in labour productivity. This has been another cause of wage stagnation.

Source: Prepared based on “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry” (quarterly journal), Ministry of Finance (left and central figures). Estimated based on “Monthly Labour Survey,” MHLW, “Labour Force Survey,” MIC, and “National Accounts,” Cabinet Office (right figure). 4

Analysis of factors of real wage increase rate

Proportions in added value Labour share of large companies

14.7 15.3 15.6 13.9

14.4 16.0 17.2 18.4

71.0 68.7 67.2 67.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995-99 2000-04 05-09 10-14

(%)

(Year)

Labour cost

Operating profits

Depreciation cost

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1995-99 2000-04 05-09 10-14

(%)

(Year)

Increase rate of real labour productivity

Labour share was increased by the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Labour share dropped sharply from 2000 through 2004.

The worsening of terms of trade has been putting a continuous downward pressure on wages.

Labour productivity

Terms of trade

Labour share

y = -0.0289x + 56.28

(-3.5) (98.7) R² = 0.0955

40

50

60

70

198587 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

(%)

(Year)

Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy

－ Wage stagnation in the midst of deflation and the causes (3) －

Increase in non-regular workers such as part-time workers with comparatively lower wages puts downward pressure on the average wage.

In light of the fact that almost 90% of the group of non-regular workers such as part-time workers that joined the workforce in the past 10 years consisted of seniors aged 60 and over and females aged under 60, wages were analyzed by factors of changes in the wages of full-time workers and part-time workers as well as factors of the rise in the ratio of part-time workers by age group. Looking at the average of five years from 2010, the rise in the ratio of part-time workers of those social strata accounts for 0.37% (93.3% of the downward pressure caused by the ratio of part-time workers) of the downward pressure on wages.

Analysis of factors of the increase in non-regular workers such as part-time workers (2004 →2014)

Source: Prepared based on “Labour Force Survey (detailed tabulation),” Statistics Bureau, MIC (left figure). Calculated based on “Basic Survey on Wage Structure,” MHLW (right figure).

Analysis of factors of wages by age group

5

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1995-99 2000-04 05-09 10-14

パート比率要因 60歳未満（男） パート比率要因 60歳未満（女） パート比率要因 60歳以上（男）

パート比率要因 60歳以上（女） 一般労働者賃金要因 パート賃金要因

(%)

(Year)

-0.55%

(78.5%) -0.70%

(75.5%)

-0.32%

(65.2%)

-0.37%

(93.3%)

Total level of contribution of the ratio of part-time workers

-0.69%

-0.92%

-0.49% -0.39%

Proportion of the level of contribution of persons aged 60 and over and females aged under 60 in the entire ratio of part-time workers

Wages of full-time workers Wages of part-time workers 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

(Increase in 2014 compared to 2004, Unit: 10,000 persons)

Male aged 60 and over (1.21 million persons, 30.4%)

Female aged 60 and over (1.24 million persons, 31.2%)

Female aged less than 60 (1.10 million persons, 27.6%)

Male aged less than 60 (0.43million persons, 10.8%)

Male and female aged 60 and over (2.45million persons, 61.6%)

Female aged less than 60 (1.10 million persons, 27.6%)

Total (3.98 million persons)

Ratio of part-time workers aged under 60 (male)

Ratio of part-time workers aged under 60 (female)

Ratio of part-time workers aged 60 and over (female)

Ratio of part-time workers aged 60 and over (male)

Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy － Sustaining a virtuous economic cycle by expanding demand －

Until 1990, there was a high correlation between compensation of employees (wages/salary) and final consumption expenditure of households which accounts for approximately 60% of the GDP in Japan. However, social benefits such as pension benefits have been underpinning household income since 1998. In order to stimulate consumption, it is important that corporate profits are distributed to wages.

According to the consumption function estimation results, a 1% increase in scheduled wages increases macro-level personal consumption by 0.59%. On the other hand, a 1% increase in non-scheduled wages or special wages increases macro-level personal consumption only by 0.09% and 0.13%, respectively. Constant wage increases such as an increase in scheduled wages by a base pay raise have a greater impact on consumption stimulation.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13

(trillion yen)

Compensation of employees (wages/salary)

Social benefits

Final consumption expenditure of households

(Year)

Compensation of employees + social benefits

Relationship between private consumption and employee compensation & social benefits

Impact of 1% wage increase on macro-level private consumption (elasticity)

Source: Prepared based on “National Accounts,” Cabinet Office (left figure). Estimated based on “Monthly Labour Survey,” MHLW, “Labour Force Survey,” Statistics Bureau, MIC, and “National Accounts,” Cabinet Office (right figure).

6

0.59

0.09

0.13

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

所定内給与 所定外給与 特別給与

(%)

Scheduled wages Non-scheduled

wages Special wages

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

199091 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99200001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

フランス ドイツ 日本

英国 米国

($)

(Year)

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1990-94 95-99 2000-04 05-09 10-14

フランス ドイツ 日本

英国 米国

(%)

(Year)

France Germany Japan

Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy － Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (1) －

Increase in labour productivity is indispensable for maintaining and enhancing the economic vitality by overcoming the supply limitation, i.e. the shrinking labour force as a result of the decline in birthrate and demographic aging, and for enabling continued increase in wages.

When compared with the labour productivity levels of European countries and the U.S., Japan has a comparable growth rate though the level has dropped.

7

Level of labour productivity Increase rate of real labour productivity

Source: Prepared based on OECD.Stat. (Note) The following issues accompany the purchasing power parity technique employed for comparing the levels of labour productivity in different countries: problems

with the selection of products and services used for the calculation, and the problem that same products and services have differing qualities depending on countries.

U.K. U.S.

France Germany Japan

U.K. U.S.

1.21 1.20

0.96 0.96 0.95 0.91

0.77 0.62 0.61

0.53 0.46 0.39 0.39

0.28 0.5

1.5

2.0 20% 40% 60% 80%

0

Gen

eral

m

ach

iner

y

Ch

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al

Tran

spor

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n eq

uipm

ent

Fin

ance

an

d

insu

ran

ce

Met

al

Info

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ion

and

com

mun

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ions

Cons

truc

tion

Elec

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eq

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ent

Elec

tric

ity, g

as

and

wat

er

Tran

spor

t an

d w

areh

ousin

g

Who

lesa

le

and

reta

il tr

ade

Real

est

ate

1.0

O

ther

m

anu

fact

uri

ng

Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy － Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (2) －

When labour productivity levels are compared between Japan and the U.S. across industries, levels are lower in Japan mainly in the non-manufacturing industries.

When the levels of IT capital investment as an investment element are compared between Japan and the U.S., investment in this area is lower in Japan in almost all industries.

It has been pointed out that reluctance for corporate restructuring has slowed down the introduction of IT in Japan; in order to improve labour productivity, it is important to actively invest in the IT sector.

1.08 0.91 0.90 0.82

0.80 0.80 0.70 0.63

0.50 0.48 0.46 0.41

0.14 0.10

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0 20% 40% 60% 80%

0

Met

al

O

ther

m

anu

fact

uri

ng

[Average value for 2000-2006] Japan’s labour productivity levels by industry (U.S. = 1)

[Average value for 2000-2006] Japan’s IT capital investment by industry (U.S. = 1)

Source: Prepared based on GGDC (Groningen Growth and Development Center) data. Horizontal axis: Labour input by industry/ Vertical axis: Man-hour(s) 8

Elec

tric

ity,

gas

and

wat

er

Info

rmat

ion

and

com

mun

icat

ions

Fin

ance

an

d

insu

ran

ce

Ch

emic

al

Elec

tric

eq

uipm

ent

Who

lesa

le

and

reta

il tr

ade

Tran

spor

tatio

n eq

uipm

ent

Eatin

g and

drin

king

serv

ices,

ac

com

mod

ation

s

Gen

eral

m

ach

iner

y

Cons

truc

tion

Tran

spor

t an

d w

areh

ousin

g

Real

est

ate

Eati

ng

and

dri

nki

ng

serv

ices

, ac

com

mo

dat

ion

s

Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy － Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (3) －

According to the analysis of factors of labour productivity in light of intangible assets (1. computerized information such as software, 2. innovative property such as R&D, and 3. economic competencies, i.e. investments in brand equity, organizational structure, and human capital), which is gaining increasing attention in relation to recent productivity analyses, while the contribution of intangible assets to the increase of productivity is large in other countries, that of Japan is small.

When capital investments are compared internationally, in Japan, the proportions of investments in tangible assets such as buildings, machinery, and equipment are higher, while the proportions of investments in intangible assets are lower; especially, the proportions of investments in economic competencies are considerably lower.

International comparison of capital investments

25.5

18.0 20.3

16.0 18.4

14.2 13.4

18.8 16.6

12.5

15.3 16.3 16.7

13.3

7.6 8.9 9.5 10.1

13.7 11.5

9.0

1.8

1.4

0.9

1.6

1.2

3.0 2.6

1.1

2.3

4.2

1.1 1.2 1.0

1.1

2.3

2.6 2.0 1.8

1.5

1.8

0.8

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.6

4.8

5.6

4.6

3.7 5.4

4.4 3.5

2.6 2.4

4.3

5.7 3.4 5.3

2.8

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.2

6.8 4.5

7.8

4.6

5.3

6.3

3.1 2.1

4.6

4.3 4.0 3.5 4.5

7.2 6.9

4.4 6.3

2.9

3.9

5.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

韓国 (2008)

カナダ (2008)

チェコ共和国

ベルギー

スロベニア

スウェーデン

フランス

オーストラリア

日本 (2008)

デンマーク

オーストリア

ポルトガル

イタリア

ドイツ

米国

英国

フィンランド

オランダ

スペイン

ルクセンブルク

アイルランド

有形資産 情報化資産

革新的資産 経済的競争能力

(%：Proportion of capital investment in added value)

9

0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4

1.1

0.2

0.9 0.7

0.3 0.6

0.8

0.8

0.2 0.4

0.4

0.3 0.5

0.8 1.1

0.7

0.4

1.4

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

日本 米国 英国 ドイツ フランス スウェーデン

TFP変化率 労働の質

無形資産の寄与度 有形資産の寄与度

(%)

Labour quality (0.0)

Analysis of factors of labour productivity in light of intangible assets

(Average values for 1995-2007)

TFP growth rate

Level of contribution of intangible assets

Labour quality

Level of contribution of tangible assets

Tangible assets

Innovative property

Computerized information Economic competencies

Japan U.S. U.K. Germany France Sweden

Ko

rea

(20

08

)

Can

ada

(20

08

)

Czec

h Re

publ

ic

Bel

giu

m

Slo

ven

ia

Swed

en

Fran

ce

Au

stra

lia

Jap

an (

20

08

)

Den

mar

k

Au

stri

a

Po

rtu

gal

Ital

y

Ger

man

y

U.S

.

U.K

.

Fin

lan

d

Net

her

lan

ds

Spai

n

Luxe

mb

ou

rg

Irel

and

Source: “Investments in Intangible Assets by Industries and Economic Growth in Japan,” Miyagawa and Hisa (2013) (left figure) “Supporting investment in knowledge capital, growth and innovation” OECD (2013) (right figure)

(Note) Total factor productivity (TFP) is regarded as the portion (residual error) of production increase which cannot be measured by the increase in investments of production elements such as capital and labour, and is understood to reflect innovation, management efficiency, etc. As for “labour quality,” on the basis that the level of wages reflects the fluctuation in labour productivity, workers are grouped according to attributes such as education level and age, and based on the growth accounting perspective, it is regarded that the labour quality has risen when there is an increase in the proportion of the group with higher total wages.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Japan

ブランド資産・組織改編 企業が行う人的資本投資 革新的資産 情報化資産

(Trillion Japanese yen)

(Year)

Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy － Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (4) －

Looking at the investments in intangible assets in Japan, the U.S., and Germany, when economic competencies are analyzed in terms of investments in brand equity and organizational structure and investments by firms in human capital, investments by firms in human capital have dropped sharply in Japan; the proportion of investments in this category is approximately 10% of those of the U.S. and Germany.

Though it must be noted that on-the-job training costs are not included in investments by firms in human capital since this item is estimated based on off-the-job training costs, the drop in the proportion of investments in human capital raises concerns about the fact that human capital is not being accumulated for the future.

Source: Prepared based on INTAN-Invest database and JIP database. 10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

U.S.

(Year)

(10 billion U.S. dollars)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

199596 97 98 99200001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Germany

(Year)

(10 billion euros)

Investments in intangible assets

Brand equity and organizational structure

Investments by firms in human capital

Innovative property

Computerized information

Looking at the relationship between added value growth rates by industry and intangible assets, IT capital, as well as the percentage of specialists/technicians in order to examine whether or not there is a difference in added value growth rates when intangible assets such as investments in brand equity, organizational structure, and human capital are combined with other investment elements, there are more industries with higher added value growth rates in the industry groups with higher-than-average intangible asset stocks and IT capital stocks. Furthermore, there are more industries with higher added value growth rates in the industry groups with higher-than-average intangible asset stocks and percentages of specialists/technicians.

As demonstrated by these data, industry growth is enhanced by simultaneously increasing investments in intangible assets as well as the above mentioned investment elements.

11 -5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

8 10 12 14 16 18

Per

cen

tage

of

spec

ialis

ts/p

rofe

ssio

nal

s

Intangible asset stock (log-transformed value)

Real added value growth rate by intangible asset stock and percentage of specialists/professionals

9

11

13

15

17

19

8 10 12 14 16 18

IT c

apit

al s

tock

(Lo

g-tr

ansf

orm

ed v

alu

e)

Intangible asset stock (log-transformed value)

Real added value growth rate by intangible asset stock and IT capital stock

A large number of industry groups with positive growth rates are observed.

Source: Prepared based on Japan Industrial Productivity (JIP) Data base, The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. (Note): The size of the bubbles represents the size of growth rates. Bubbles of industries with positive growth rates are shown in dark colors.

Chapter 2 Challenges for the sustainable growth of the Japanese economy － Challenges for improving productivity in Japan (5) －

While the total actual working hours of workers has decreased mainly due to the increase in the ratio of part-time workers, the total actual working hours of full-time workers has not changed significantly.

When examined by industries, the percentage of workers working 60 hours or longer per week is high in Eating and drinking services, accommodations, transport and postal activities, as well as living-related and personal services and amusement services. When examined by age groups, the percentage of regular male staff/employees working 60 hours or longer per week is high in age groups from 25 to 39.

Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles － Current work styles in Japan －

13.8

5.7

16.6

8.9

4.3

11.9

28.3

17.1

11.5

16.8

13.3

32.1

22.3

19.2

6.5

11.8 10.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

産業計

鉱業，採石業，砂利採取業

建設業

製造業

電気・ガス・熱供給・水道業

情報通信業

運輸業，郵便業

卸売業，小売業

金融業，保険業

不動産業，物品賃貸業

学術研究，専門・技術サービス業

宿泊業，飲食サービス業

生活関連サービス業，娯楽業

教育，学習支援業

医療，福祉

サービス業（他に分類されないもの）

公務（他に分類されるものを除く）

Percentage of workers working 60 hours or longer per week by industry (regular) (%)

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

1982 87 92 97 2002 07 12(Year)

Transition of the percentage of regular staff/employees working 60 hours or longer per week (male) (%)

Total of all ages

20 to24 years old

25 to 29 years old 30 to 34 years old 35 to 39 years old

40 to 44 years old

45 to 49 years old

50 to 54 years old

55 to 59 years old

Tota

l of

the

Ind

ust

ries

Min

ing

and

Qu

arry

ing

of

sto

ne

and

gr

avel

Co

nst

ruct

ion

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

Elec

tric

ity,

gas

, hea

t su

pp

ly a

nd

w

ater

Info

rmat

ion

an

d c

om

mu

nic

atio

ns

Tran

spo

rt a

nd

po

stal

act

ivit

ies

Wh

ole

sale

an

d r

etai

l tra

de

Fin

ance

an

d in

sura

nce

Rea

l est

ate

and

go

od

s re

nta

l an

d

leas

ing

Scie

nti

fic

rese

arch

, pro

fess

ion

al

and

tec

hn

ical

ser

vice

s Ea

tin

g an

d d

rin

kin

g se

rvic

es,

acco

mm

od

atio

ns

Livi

ng-

rela

ted

an

d p

erso

nal

se

rvic

es a

nd

am

use

men

t se

rvic

es

Edu

cati

on

, lea

rnin

g su

pp

ort

Med

ical

, h

ealt

h c

are

and

wel

fare

Serv

ices

, N.E

.C

Go

vern

men

t, e

xcep

t el

sew

her

e cl

assi

fied

Source: Prepared based on “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure (2012),” Statistics Bureau, MIC (left figure). Prepared based on “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure,” Statistics Bureau, MIC (right figure).

010203040506070

人手不足だから

業務の繁閑が激しい

から、突発的な業務が

生じやすいから

仕事の性質や顧客の

都合上、所定外でないと

できない仕事があるから

急な方針変更や曖昧な指示、

プロセスの多い決裁手続き、

長時間におよぶ会議など、

仕事の進め方にムダがあるから

組織間や従業員間で

業務配分にムラが

あるから

求められている成果が

明確でないから

自分が納得できるまで

仕上げたいから

仕事が面白いから

納期やノルマが

厳しいから

営業時間が長いから

残業手当や休日手当を

稼ぎたいから

残業が昇進・昇格など

人事上で評価される

慣行・風土があるから

成果・業績主義化や仕事の

個別化等で、職場に

助け合いの雰囲気がないから

職場に帰りにくい

雰囲気があるから

自分の能力や技術が

足りないから

その他

Causes of overtime work (workers / by annual income) (%)

Less than 3 million yen

3 to 5 million yen 5 to 8 million yen

8 million yen and over

53.0

2.9

67.5

49.0

23.1 24.7

4.9 14.5

8.4 14.2

4.1 3.4 8.3

22.5

4.5

010203040506070

人員が不足して

いるから

雇用の初期費用が

高いから

業務の繁閑が激しい

から、突発的な業務が

生じやすいから

仕事の性質や顧客の

都合上、所定外でないと

できない仕事があるから

仕事の進め方に

ムダがあるから

組織間や従業員間の

業務配分にムラが

あるから

個々の仕事に求める

成果が明確でない

から

納期やノルマが

厳しいから

営業時間が

長いから

（従業員が）残業手当や

休日手当を稼ぎたい

から

（従業員が）人事評価を

気にしているから

成果・業績主義化や業務の

個別化等で、職場に

助け合いの雰囲気がないから

職場に帰りにくい

雰囲気があるから

能力・技術不足で

時間がかかってしまう

従業員がいるから

その他

Causes of overtime work (employers)

(%)

According to a survey of workers and employers, the percentage of respondents that gave the following reasons for the occurrence of overtime work was high in both groups: fluctuation in the amount of work, the frequent arising sudden and unforeseen duties, and staff shortage.

In addition, a high percentage of workers responded that overtime work occurs because they want to produce satisfactory products/results based on their own standards. Meanwhile, only a low percentage of workers responded that they work overtime to earn overtime and holiday/day-off allowances.

High percentage of employers responded that overtime work is caused because work is performed inefficiently or because there are duties that must be performed by working overtime due to customers’ circumstances. Also, many employers responded that employees who take time to perform work because of lack of ability and skills are the cause of overtime work.

Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles － Current circumstances and challenges of work styles in terms of worker’s

and employer’s perspectives (1) －

Source: Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours and Work Style Needs (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training (upper figure). Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours Management and Efficient Work Styles (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training (lower figure). 13

Insu

ffic

ien

t n

um

ber

of

staf

f

Extr

eme

flu

ctu

atio

n in

wo

rk

amo

un

t, f

req

uen

tly

aris

ing

sud

den

an

d u

nfo

rese

en d

uti

es

Du

ties

th

at m

ust

be

per

form

ed

by

wo

rkin

g o

vert

ime

du

e to

th

e n

atu

re o

f w

ork

or

cust

om

ers’

ci

rcu

mst

ance

s

Inef

fici

entl

y p

erfo

rmed

wo

rk d

ue

to s

ud

den

po

licy

chan

ges,

am

big

uo

us

inst

ruct

ion

s, f

inal

d

ecis

ion

-mak

ing

pro

cess

wit

h t

oo

m

any

step

s, lo

ng

mee

tin

gs, e

tc.

Un

even

ly d

istr

ibu

ted

wo

rk

amo

ng

emp

loye

es

and

th

e o

rgan

izat

ion

Un

clea

rly

spec

ifie

d e

xpec

ted

re

sult

s

To p

rod

uce

pro

du

cts/

resu

lts

of

sati

sfac

tory

qu

alit

y

Wo

rk is

inte

rest

ing

Tou

gh d

eliv

ery

sch

edu

les

and

q

uo

ta

Lon

g o

per

atin

g h

ou

rs

To e

arn

ove

rtim

e an

d

ho

liday

/day

-off

allo

wan

ces

Co

mp

any

cult

ure

/cu

sto

m t

hat

re

cogn

izes

ove

rtim

e as

an

item

o

f p

erso

nn

el e

valu

atio

n f

or

adva

nce

men

t in

ran

k, p

osi

tio

n,

etc.

No

atm

osp

her

e o

f co

op

erat

ion

at

wo

rkp

lace

du

e to

em

ph

asis

on

o

utc

om

e/p

erfo

rman

ce a

nd

in

div

idu

aliz

atio

n o

f w

ork

Wo

rkp

lace

atm

osp

her

e m

akes

it

dif

ficu

lt t

o le

ave

earl

ier

than

o

ther

s

My

ow

n la

ck o

f ab

ility

an

d s

kills

Oth

ers

Lack

of

wo

rker

s

Hig

h in

itia

l co

sts

of

hir

ing

Extr

em

e fl

uct

uat

ion

in

wo

rk a

mo

un

t, f

req

uen

tly

aris

ing

sud

den

an

d

un

fore

seen

du

ties

Du

ties

th

at m

ust

be

per

form

ed b

y w

ork

ing

ove

rtim

e d

ue

to t

he

nat

ure

of

wo

rk o

r cu

sto

mer

s’ c

ircu

mst

ance

s

Wo

rk is

per

form

ed

inef

fici

entl

y

Un

even

ly d

istr

ibu

ted

wo

rk

amo

ng

emp

loye

es

and

th

e o

rgan

izat

ion

Un

clea

rly

spec

ifie

d

exp

ecte

d r

esu

lts

of

ind

ivid

ual

du

ties

Tou

gh d

eliv

ery

sch

edu

les

and

qu

ota

Lon

g o

per

atin

g h

ou

rs

(Fo

r em

plo

yee

s) t

o e

arn

o

vert

ime

and

ho

liday

/day

-o

ff a

llow

ance

s

Pers

on

nel

eva

luat

ion

is in

th

e m

ind

(o

f em

plo

yee

s)

No

atm

osp

her

e o

f co

op

erat

ion

at

wo

rkp

lace

d

ue

to e

mp

has

is o

n

ou

tco

me/

per

form

ance

an

d in

div

idu

aliz

atio

n o

f w

ork

Wo

rkp

lace

atm

osp

her

e m

akes

it d

iffi

cult

to

leav

e ea

rlie

r th

an o

ther

s

Emp

loye

es

wh

o t

ake

tim

e to

per

form

wo

rk b

ecau

se

of

lack

of

abili

ty a

nd

ski

lls

Oth

ers

6.3

74.1

19.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

増えた 変わらない 減った

Change in the total actual working hours due to increased IT utilization

(%) (Rank or position of

employees who worked overtime

has) advanced, 4.8

Not advanced, 26.5

Cannot tell for sure, 68.6

Advancement in rank or position of employees who worked overtime (employer)

(Unit: %)

According to the survey of employers, a high percentage of them do not include overtime work in the personnel evaluation items for advancement in rank or position.

IT utilization is regarded as a tool for efficient work styles; nearly 20% of employers responded that the total actual working hours decreased by IT utilization.

In order to reduce overtime work which is caused by heteronomous factors, it is important to distribute staff efficiently based on analyses of fluctuation in demand, and to build business models that are less likely to be affected by outside factors. Meanwhile, IT utilization and good communication between superiors and subordinates are important for performing work efficiently.

Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles － Current circumstances and challenges of work styles in terms of worker’s

and employer’s perspectives (2) －

(Total actual working hours of the entire company)

Source: Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours Management and Efficient Work Styles (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training. 14

Evaluate positively

(including “if anything”), 9.1

Evaluate negatively

(including “if anything”), 4.7

Cannot tell for sure, 37.5

Not evaluate (Length of

overtime work is unrelated

with personnel evaluation),

48.7

Personnel evaluation of overtime work (employer)

(Unit: %)

Increased Not changed Decreased

Many companies that were successful in reducing overtime work took the following approaches: work condition reality check, alerting and advising workers working long hours and their superiors, and reviewing details and distribution of duties.

Such companies tended to regard their company as having higher labour productivity in comparison with those of industry peers. Hence, reduction of overtime work is meaningful not only for workers but for companies as well. According to the responses given in company interviews, the positive effects of reduction in work hours included fatigue reduction, increased motivation, and self-improvement.

Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles － Aiming at creating a virtuous cycle for workers and employers by improving work styles (1) －

Source: Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours Management and Efficient Work Styles (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training. 15

69.2

43.1

6.7

12.0

38.4

50.0

66.1

42.4

55.2

26.1 24.2

10.3

45.1

17.1

1.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

実態（実際の労働時間等）

の把握

ノー残業デーの

設定

強制消灯、ＰＣの

一斉電源オフ

社内放送等による

終業の呼び掛け

経営トップからの呼び掛けや

経営戦略化による意識啓発

所定外労働の事前届出制

の導入

長時間労働者やその上司等

に対する注意喚起や助言

適正な人員確保

仕事の内容・分担の

見直し

非正社員の活用や

外部委託化の推進

労働時間管理や健康確保に係る、

管理職向けの研修・意識啓発

労働時間管理や健康確保に係る、

非管理職向けの研修・意識啓発

休日労働に対する

代休の付与

委員会等による検討

その他

Approaches taken by companies that successfully reduced overtime work

(%)

30.2 21.6

57.2 63.0

12.6 15.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

短縮された

変わらない

（よく分からない

を含む）

Assessment of labour productivity by companies with and without overtime reduction (comparison with industry peers)

(Whether or not overtime work was reduced)

Low or Rather low

Cannot specify / Do not know

High or Rather high

(%)

Wo

rk c

on

dit

ion

s (e

.g. a

ctu

al w

ork

h

ou

rs)

real

ity

chec

k

Esta

blis

hm

ent

of

No

Ove

rtim

e D

ay

Forc

ed li

ghts

off

, fo

rced

sh

utd

ow

n o

f al

l PC

s

Cal

ls t

o f

inis

h w

ork

usi

ng

com

pan

y an

no

un

cin

g sy

stem

etc

.

Cal

ls f

rom

to

p e

xecu

tive

s an

d

awar

enes

s en

han

cem

ent

acti

viti

es

bas

ed o

n m

anag

emen

t st

rate

gies

Intr

od

uct

ion

of

adva

nce

ove

rtim

e w

ork

re

po

rt s

yste

m

Ale

rtin

g an

d a

dvi

sin

g o

f lo

ng-

ho

ur

wo

rker

s an

d t

hei

r su

per

viso

rs

Ap

pro

pri

ate

staf

fin

g

Rev

iew

of

det

ails

an

d d

istr

ibu

tio

n o

f d

uti

es

Uti

lizat

ion

of

no

n-r

egu

lar

emp

loye

es

and

ou

tso

urc

ing

Trai

ning

and

aw

aren

ess e

nhan

cem

ent

activ

ities

for e

xecu

tives

rega

rdin

g w

ork

hour

man

agem

ent a

nd h

ealth

mai

nten

ance

Tr

aini

ng a

nd a

war

enes

s enh

ance

men

t ac

tiviti

es fo

r non

-exe

cutiv

es re

gard

ing

wor

k ho

ur m

anag

emen

t and

hea

lth m

aint

enan

ce

Gra

nti

ng

of

com

pen

sati

on

day

-off

fo

r d

ay-o

ff/h

olid

ay w

ork

Eval

uat

ion

by

com

mit

tee

etc

.

Oth

ers

Reduced Not changed (including “Not clear”)

In order to maintain/enhance production activities while reducing work hours, labour productivity must be enhanced and labour input must be increased.

A high percentage of companies that implement educational training regards themselves as having higher labour productivity in comparison with those of industry peers, and state that their sales (over the past three years) have increased.

It is important to provide diverse work styles that meet the needs of workers who wish to work more hours and potential workers who are unemployed due to being unable to find jobs because of work conditions, such as work hours and work schedules, so that they can participate in labour in ways that suit their desired work conditions.

Chapter 3 For the realization of more effective work styles － Aiming at creating a virtuous cycle for workers and employers by improving work styles (2) －

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

取り組んでいる

取り組んでいない

Implementation of educational training and labour productivity (%)

Low

Rather low

Cannot specify / Do not know

Rather high

32.1%

19.2%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

取り組んでいる

取り組んでいない

Implementation of educational training and transition of sales over the past three years (%) Dropped

sharply (15% and over)

Decreased (more than 5% and less than 15% )

Nearly flat (increase/ decrease of less than 5%)

Increased sharply (15% and over)

44.1%

23.5%

Source: Prepared based on “Survey on Work Hours Management and Efficient Work Styles (2015),” Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training. 16

Implemented Not implemented High

(Educational training activities)

Implemented Not implemented

(Educational training activities)

Increased (more than 5% and less than 15% )

Chapter 4 Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline － Demographic trends and labour supply limitations －

Population inflow to the Tokyo-area has been increasing since 2011. Young age groups of both males and females tend to concentrate in the Tokyo-area due to the concentration of

universities and large companies.

Source: “Internal Migration in Japan Derived from the Basic Resident Registers,” Statistics Bureau, MIC 17

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1954 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

(10,000 persons)

(Year)

Tokyo-area

Nagoya-area

Osaka-area

Population inflow to the three metropolitan areas

Nu

mb

er o

f ex

cess

new

res

iden

ts

(bel

ow

zer

o: n

um

ber

of

exce

ss d

epar

ted

res

iden

ts)

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0～

4

5～

9

1

0～

1

4

1

5～

1

9

2

0～

2

4

2

5～

2

9

3

0～

3

4

3

5～

3

9

4

0～

4

4

4

5～

4

9

5

0～

5

4

5

5～

5

9

6

0～

6

4

6

5～

6

9

7

0～

7

4

7

5～

7

9

8

0～

8

4

8

5～

8

9

9

0～

(10,000 persons)

(Age)

Tokyo-area

Osaka-area

Nagoya-area

Population inflow to the three metropolitan areas (male, 2014)

Nu

mb

er o

f ex

cess

new

res

iden

ts

(bel

ow

zer

o: n

um

ber

of

exce

ss d

epar

ted

res

iden

ts)

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0～

4

5～

9

1

0～

1

4

1

5～

1

9

2

0～

2

4

2

5～

2

9

3

0～

3

4

3

5～

3

9

4

0～

4

4

4

5～

4

9

5

0～

5

4

5

5～

5

9

6

0～

6

4

6

5～

6

9

7

0～

7

4

7

5～

7

9

8

0～

8

4

8

5～

8

9

9

0～

(10,000 persons)

(Age)

Tokyo-area

Nagoya-area

Osaka-area

Population inflow to the three metropolitan areas (female, 2014)

Nu

mb

er o

f ex

cess

new

res

iden

ts

(bel

ow

zer

o: n

um

ber

of

exce

ss d

epar

ted

res

iden

ts)

Tokyo-area: Saitama-ken, Chiba-ken, Tokyo-to, Kanagawa-ken Nagoya-area: Gifu-ken, Aichi-ken, Mie-ken Osaka-area: Kyoto-fu, Osaka-fu, Hyogo-ken, Nara-ken

y = 0.0501x - 0.1125

R² = 0.3361

y = 0.0127x - 0.0129

R² = 0.3596

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

-25 -15 -5 5 15

若年層 全体

(5.027)

(4.772)

Rat

io o

f n

et in

flo

w a

mo

ng

pre

fect

ure

s re

late

d t

o e

mp

loym

ent

(%)

Relationship of the average annual income of full-time workers and employment-related population flow

among prefectures

y = 0.1256x + 7.4798

(6.711) (57.951) R² = 0.5002

8

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

8.8

5 6 7 8 9 10

Population density (log-transformed value) La

bo

ur

pro

du

ctiv

ity

(lo

g-tr

ansf

orm

ed v

alu

e)

Relationship of population density and labour productivity

(Yen/man hour)

(Population / km2)

Chapter 4 Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline － Challenges for creating a virtuous economic cycle in regions (1) －

The average annual income, i.e. the wage standard, tends to be higher in regions with higher labour productivity. Accordingly, there is a trend of employment-related population flow to areas with higher wage standards.

Levels of labour productivity are higher in areas with higher concentration of population and higher population density. Efforts to increase labour productivity are crucial for the growth of local economies.

Source: Estimated based on “Monthly Labour Survey (regional),” “Basic Survey on Wage Structure,” MHLW, “Prefectural Accounts,” Cabinet Office, “Retail Price Survey (Structural Survey),” “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure (2012),” “Population Estimates,” and “Regional Statistics Database,” Statistics Bureau, MIC. 18

y = 0.8009x + 8.575

R² = 0.7944

15.0

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.4

15.5

15.6

15.7

8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8

Ave

rage

an

nu

al in

com

e o

f fu

ll-ti

me

wo

rker

s (l

og-

tran

sfo

rmed

val

ue)

Labour productivity (log-transformed value)

Relationship of labour productivity and the average annual income of full-time workers

(13.186) (16.924)

(Yen)

(Yen/man hour)

Difference between the national average of the average annual income of full-time workers, excluding effects of educational levels etc. (%)

Young generations

All generations

Chapter 4 Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline － Challenges for creating a virtuous economic cycle in regions (2) －

There are correlations between improvements in labour productivity and the concentration of population, businesses, as well as human resources (e.g. people who have received higher education at universities or junior colleges, and people who work on self-development); it is important to effectively utilize these concentration benefits.

In order to enhance this human resource group, improvements in the employment situation and attractive employment opportunities are needed.

Source: Estimated based on “Monthly Labour Survey (regional),” MHLW, “Prefectural Accounts,” Cabinet Office, “Population Census (2010),” “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure (2012),” “Regional Statistics Database,” Statistics Bureau, MIC (left figure) (central figure). “Mynavi’s Survey on Job Expectations of University Students,” Mynavi Corporation (right figure)

19

y = 0.1115x + 7.7743 (6.809) (92.793)

R² = 0.5075

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

8.8

3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Lab

ou

r p

rod

uct

ivit

y (l

og-

tran

sfo

rmed

val

ue)

Density of graduates of higher education institutes (log-transformed value)

Relationship between labour productivity and concentration of

graduates of higher education institutes (Yen/man-hour) (Yen/man-hour)

0

10

20

30

40

50

絶対に大手がよい

自分のやりたい仕事ができ

るのであれば大手企業がよ

い

やりがいのある仕事であれ

ば中堅・中小企業でもよい

中堅・中小企業がよい

その他(

公務員、Uターン志

望など)

自分で会社を起こしたい

Job expectations of university students

2005年卒

2010年卒

2015年卒

(%)

Class of 2005 Class of 2010

Class of 2015

(Number of graduates of higher education institutes/km2) (Number of people who work on self-development/km2) D

efin

itel

y w

ant

to w

ork

at

a la

rge

com

pan

y

A la

rge

com

pan

y is

des

irab

le if

th

e w

ork

mat

ches

my

care

er in

tere

sts

A s

mal

l or

med

ium

-siz

ed c

om

pan

y is

o

kay

if t

he

wo

rk is

sat

isfy

ing

Wan

t to

wo

rk a

t a

smal

l or

med

ium

-si

zed

co

mp

any

Oth

ers

(wan

t to

bec

om

e a

gove

rnm

ent

off

icia

l, w

ant

to r

etu

rn t

o

ho

me

tow

n, e

tc.)

Wan

t to

sta

rt u

p m

y o

wn

co

mp

any

Chapter 4 Desirable state of local economies in the face of population decline － Challenges for creating a virtuous economic cycle in regions (3) －

In the era of population decline, it is important to make efforts to motivate people who do not have the experience of participating in the labour market to work and to encourage labour participation.

A large number of women who want to work are not searching for jobs due to bearing and raising of children. In order to encourage females of the child-rearing generation to work, sufficient day-care center capacity must be provided and long working hours must be suppressed to create an environment that enables the balancing of work and child-rearing.

Source: Estimated based on “Report on Circumstances Related to Day-Care Centers,” MHLW, “Basic Statistical Survey on Employment Structure (2012),” “Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (2011),” and “Population Estimates,“ Statistics Bureau, MIC.

20

y = 0.5722x + 30.321

R² = 0.6305

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

20 30 40 50 60 70Ratio of day-care center capacity

Emp

loym

ent

rate

of

fem

ales

of

the

child

-re

arin

g ge

ner

atio

n

(%)

(%)

Relationship between the employment rate of females of the child-rearing generation and the ratio of day-care center

capacity

(10.633) (8.763)

y = 0.7773x + 45.025

R² = 0.4051

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

0 10 20 30 40

(%)

(%)

Emp

loym

ent

rate

of

fem

ales

of

the

child

-re

arin

g ge

ner

atio

n

Relationship between the employment rate of females of the child-rearing generation and the ratio of them living

with parents

(5.535) (23.060)

y = -0.4006x + 77.648

R² = 0.3698

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

30 50 70 90 110

Commute time of females of the child-rearing generation

(%)

(min.)

Relationship between the employment rate and the commute time of females of the child-rearing generation

(-5.138) (16.738)

y = 0.6051x + 37.02

R² = 0.1757

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

15 20 25 30 35 40 45

(%)

(%)

Emp

loym

ent

rate

of

fem

ales

of

the

child

-re

arin

g ge

ner

atio

n

(3.097) (6.469)

y = -2.7599x + 93.857

R² = 0.602

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

7 12 17 22

Relationship between the employment rate of females of the child-rearing generation and the ratio of workers of the child-

rearing generation working long hours

Emp

loym

ent

rate

of

fem

ales

of

the

child

-re

arin

g ge

ner

atio

n

(%)

Ratio of workers of the child-rearing generation working long hours

(%)

(-8.250) (19.346)

Relationship between the employment rate of females of the child-rearing generation and the amount of housework and child-rearing tasks performed by males of the child-rearing

generation in dual-income households

Amount of housework and child-rearing tasks performed by males of the child-rearing generation in dual-income households

Ratio of females of the child-rearing generation living with parents

Emp

loym

ent

rate

of

fem

ales

of

the

child

-re

arin

g ge

ner

atio

n