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22 October 2015 The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues During the week ending 21 October 2015, rainfall was recorded in isolated areas of Western

Australia, Queensland, South Australia, and much of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.

Maximum and minimum temperatures were generally above average across much of southern and central Australia during the week ending 20 October 2015, while northern Australia recorded generally below average to average temperatures.

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres is likely across much of southern and eastern New South Wales, and south-east Queensland, eastern and central Victoria and in isolated areas of northern, central and southern Western Australia.

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 21 October 2015 by 230 gigalitres (GL) and are at 46 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4 097 GL less than at the same time last year.

The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 525 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 16 October 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price fell by 11 per cent in New South Wales to average 517 cents a kilogram and by 7 per cent in Victoria to average 527 cents a kilogram.

The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 458 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 16 October 2015, 5 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price fell by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 484 cents a kilogram and by 11 per cent in South Australia to average 439 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price rose by 3 per cent in Western Australia to average 426 cents a kilogram.

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$217 a tonne in the week ending 20 October 2015, compared with US$223 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $285 a tonne in the week ending 21 October 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.

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1. Climate

1.1. Rainfall this week

During the week ending 21 October 2015, rainfall was recorded in isolated areas of Western Australia, Queensland, South Australia, and much of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was recorded in far south-west Western Australia, north coast of Queensland, scattered areas of New South Wales, and south-west Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 84 millimetres near Cairns in north Queensland.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Rainfall for the week ending 21 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 21/10/2015

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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week

Maximum temperatures were above average across much of southern and central Australia during the week ending 20 October 2015, while across much of northern Australia and parts of the Western Australian coast recorded below average to average temperatures. Parts of south-east Australia recorded temperatures between 8 and 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

Minimum temperatures were generally average to above average across much of southern and central Australia during the week ending 20 October 2015, while areas of northern Australia, south and west Western Australia and Tasmania recorded below average to average temperatures for this time of year.

Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 20 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 21/10/2015

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 20 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 21/10/2015

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1.3. Rainfall forecast

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres is likely across much of southern and eastern New South Wales, and south-east Queensland, eastern and central Victoria and in isolated areas of northern, central and southern Western Australia,.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 22 to 29 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 21/10/2015

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2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 21 October 2015 by 230 gigalitres (GL) and are at 46 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4 097 GL less than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 21 October 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

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3. Commodities 3.1. Production and commodities

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$217 a tonne in the week ending 20 October 2015, compared with US$223 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$169 a tonne in the week ending 21 October 2015, compared with US$171 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$441 a tonne in the week ending 20 October 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US70.3 cents a pound in the week ending 21 October 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

Data from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association indicates that, as at 1 October 2015, around 237 000 tonnes (lint equivalent) of cotton seed had been delivered in the 2015–16 season (August to July), around 26 per cent lower than by the same date a year ago.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US14.2 cents a pound in the week ending 21 October 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.

Data from the European Commission indicates that, as at 15 October 2015, the European Union had awarded import licences for 88 320 tonne of sugar (raw value equivalent) for the 2015–16 season (October to September) under the Preferential EPA/EBA import regime. This compares with import licences for 164 371 tonnes awarded over the same period a year ago.

The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $285 a tonne in the week ending 21 October 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.

The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $288 a tonne in the week ending 21 October 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.

The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $264 a tonne in the week ending 21 October 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $546 a tonne in the week ending 19 October 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.

The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 525 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 16 October 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price fell by 11 per cent in New South Wales to average 517 cents a kilogram and by 7 per cent in Victoria to average 527 cents a kilogram.

The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 458 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 16 October 2015, 5 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price fell by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 484 cents a kilogram and by 11 per cent in South Australia to average 439 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price rose by 3 per cent in Western Australia to average 426 cents a kilogram.

The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 169 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 15 October 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder fell by 5 per cent to US$2 694 a tonne on 20 October 2015, down from US$2 824 a tonne on 6 October 2015. Over the same period, the prices of skim milk powder and cheddar cheese fell by 4 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. In contrast, the price of anhydrous milk fat increased by 2 per cent.

The wholesale prices of selected fruit generally rose in the week ending 17 October 2015, compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), avocado (hass), pineapple (smoothleaf), strawberry and watermelon (seedless) increased while the price of blueberry fell.

The wholesale prices of selected vegetable generally fell in the week ending 17 October 2015, compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of bean (round, stringless), tomato (field gourmet), lettuce (iceberg) and cauliflower fell while the price of onion (brown) increased.

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3.2. Selected world indicator prices

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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

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3.4. Crop indicator prices

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3.5. Livestock indicator prices

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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices

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4. Data attribution Climate

Bureau of Meteorology

Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

Water

New South Wales

New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register:

http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Queensland

Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au

South Australia

SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow-report

South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au

Victoria

Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au

Commodities

Fruit and vegetables

Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au

Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx

Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets

Pigs

Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au

Canola

Weekly Times: hardcopy

Dairy Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/