summit to sea - o’r mynydd i’r môr project · assessment of relevant post-brexit policy...

Summit to Sea - O’r Mynydd i’r Môr Project Restoring flourishing ecosystems and a resilient economy in mid-Wales

SubmissiontotheEndangeredLandscapeProgrammeby

RewildingBritain–ProgrammaticLead

WoodlandTrust–FinanceLead

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Photoscredits:WildMediaFoundation

Table of Contents

1. RestorationDiagnostic2

2. Theoryofchange(TOC)2

3. LogicalFrameworkMatrix13

4. Workplan17

5. Evidencebase17

6. Testinginterventions18

7. Teammanagement22

8. MonitoringPlan24

9. CommunicationsPlan25

10. CommunityEngagementPlan30

11. Capacitydevelopment37

12. Businessplanforsocialenterprise37

13. Re-introductionsandtranslocation41

14. Landpurchase42

15. Harmonisationandscaling-up43

16. Exitstrategyandsustainability46

17. Budget47

18. Riskassessment48

19. Socio-culturalimpactsandsafeguardsassessment54

20. Environmentalimpactsassessment58

21. DueDiligenceassessment60

SupportingDocuments60

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1. Restoration Diagnostic __________________________________________________________________________________

SeeattachedexceldocumentWales_RestorationDiagnostic

2. Theory of change (TOC) __________________________________________________________________________________

Aswestatedinourpreviousapplication,theCambrianMountains,lowlandsandcoastlineareblessedwitharichlinguistic,culturalandnaturalheritage,developedthroughalonghistoryofworkingwiththelandandsea.Butmorerecentlytheareahassufferedbothecologicalandeconomicdecline.Thediversityandabundanceofwildlifehasplummeted,whiletraditional,productiveindustriesnolongersustainrobustemploymentandincomes.

Itisgenerallyacceptedthatecologicaldeclinecanonlybereversedbyactionataland/seascapescale.InthewordsofSirJohnLawton,thisrequiresanapproachthatis“bigger,betterandmorejoinedup”aimedatre-establishingnaturallyfunctioningecosystems.Mid-Walesisanareawherelocalpeoplehavelivedoff,shapedandbeenshapedbythelandandseaoverhundredsofyears.Theyhavedeeptiestothelandandseaaswellasprideinthearea’slinguistic,culturalandnaturalheritage.Anychangestoland/seausepracticeswhichenablelong-termecosystemrestorationmustthereforecomefromasharedvisiondevelopedwith,andfor,localpeoplewhichsupportsbothflourishingecosystemsandamorediversified,resilienteconomy.

Overthelast30-40yearstheEuropeanUnion’sCommonAgriculturalPolicyhaslockedlandownersintoahighdependencyonsubsidieswithlittlecontroloverthewaytheymanagetheland.Forsea-userstherecentchangesintheCommonFisheriesPolicyhavebeenprogressivebuttheproblemherehasbeenofimplementation.WithBrexitwehavereacheda‘tippingpoint’wherechangeisinevitable.IncombinationwithrecentshiftsintheUKandespeciallytheWelshpolicycontextthishasprovidedanunprecedentedmomentofopportunitytodemonstratearuraleconomicmodelthatallowsbothpeopleandnaturetothrive.

ThesuccessoftheSummittoSea(S2S)projectdependsoncommunitybuy-inandengagement.Recognisingthestrongculturalprideandvaluesofthesecommunitiesisapriority.Effectivemechanismsareneededbywhichlandowners/sea-userscantakecollectiveresponsibilityforandengagementinbettermanagingthearea’snaturalresourcesforthefuture.Thisisnotasingle-dimensionproject,itisacombinationofland/seausesandactivitiesthatevolveovertimetakingintoaccounttheneedsoftheentirecommunityandalsothenatureandwildlifeoftheSummittoSeaarea.Supportivepolicyandlegalframeworksarealsoneededtoprovideincentivesandstability.

ItistheseelementswhichformthefundamentalbasisofSummittoSea’sprojectapproach-summarisedinDiagram1:S2SLong-TermProjectApproach.Themechanismsbywhichthisapproachwillsetinmotionacascadeofecologicalandsocialfeedbackloopsthatreversedeteriorationinthelandscape-ourTheoryofChange-issummarisedinDiagram2.

OverthelastfewmonthswehavefurthertestedoutbothourprojectapproachandTheoryofChange(ToC)throughaseriesofworkshopswithprojectspartners,stakeholdersandthosewithrelevantexpertise.Thesehaveexploreddifferentelementsoftheapproachincluding:

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• Ecologicalrestoration–allprojectpartners• Caseforanature-basedeconomy–projectvisitswithbusinessrepresentatives(Eden

Project,PukkaTeas,TYFAdventure),projectdesignworkshophostedbyArupandlocalexpertworkshop

• Communityengagementandgovernance–localworkshopswithprojectpartnersandstakeholderswithbothlocalandexternalexpertise.

ThroughthisprocessthefundamentalpremiseoftheToChasheldtruewhile1)wehavegainedusefulinputsintothedetailoftheproject’sdesignand2)wehaveincreasedthesenseofbroaderengagementinandownershipoftheproject.Onecommenthasbeen:

“Notonlyhasitthepotentialtofacilitatetherewildingofalargetractofland,butitwillalsodemonstratethattherearemodelsofworkingwiththenaturalworld,environmentandecologythatcanbeinnovative,inspiringandimportantly,canbemadetoworkintherealworld…withrealpeople.”(DaveHarland,ChiefExecutiveOfficer,EdenProjectInternationalLimited).

InsupportoftheToCinthefollowingsectionswewilldevelopthebasisforthetheoryfurther.WewillalsoaddressthethreequestionsraisedbytheELPpanel.

Diagram1:S2SLong-termProjectApproach

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Question1:Theprojectoutcomesarequiteheavilydependentonareformofagricultural/environmentalpaymentspost-Brexit.Theprojectplanshouldincludeafullerriskassessment,andshow(inbrief)whatalternativestrategiesmightbeadoptediftheexpectedpaymentschemedoesn’tmaterialise.

Summarypoints:

• ChangestotradingarrangementsarelikelytocauseparticularchallengesforWelshsheepproducers.

• DirectsupportwillbephasedoutacrosstheUK,probablybetween2020and2025.• TheWelshGovernmentiscommittedasamatterofbothlawandpolicytointroduceascheme

forpayingfarmersandlandmanagersforthedeliveryofpublicgoods,includingecologicalrestoration.

• Themajorityoffarmersarelikelytobuyintothis,thoughtheabilityofeachindividualfarmertodosomaybeconstrainedbythebasisonwhichtheyoccupytheland.

• Otheroptionswillbeavailableinsteadoforaswellaspublicgoodspayments,themainonesbeingforestry,tourismanddiversifiedfoodandnaturalproducts.

• Bothreductionsinfundingandpoliticalchangeareriskstothedirectionoftravel,butinneithercasearetheysignificant.

Contextofthecurrentruraleconomy:

Goal(15-20yrs):Flourishingecosystemssupportingaself-sustainingnature-basedeconomywhichprovidesasustainablefutureforlocalcommunitiesacrossatleast10,000haoflandand28,400haof

seaacrosstheS2Sarea

CreationofS2Sasaniconicdestinationlinkedtodiverseproducts/servicese.g.

naturetourism,natural+culturalproducts,highnaturevaluelivestock,

continuouscoverforestry,PaymentsforEcosystemsServices

Restorationofnaturalprocessesandmissingspecies,whereappropriate,acrosscoreandbufferareaswithincreasedbiodiversity,cleanwater,

floodcontrol,healthandwell-beingetc.

Diversenature-basedeconomy Flourishingecosystems

Providestabilityandsecurityforlong-terminvestmentinandprotectionofnaturalassets

Supportivepolicy/legalframeworkEngagement,fromyoungtoold,

inshaping,designing,monitoring,learningaboutand

benefittingfromS2S

Communities+publicactivelyengaged Agreementbetweenmultiple

owners/stewardsofthelandandseatoinvestin

coordinatedlongtermapproachtorestorenatural

assetsandsharerevenue/benefits

Commonagreement

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Theruraleconomyofmid-Waleshasasignificantlylargershareofemploymentinagriculture(11-16%comparedwith3%)thanthenationalaverage.Otherkeyemploymentprovidersfortheregionarethepublicsector(26%),forestry(publicandprivate),fishingandtourism.Theoverwhelmingmajorityoffarmscurrentlydonotprovidenon-familyemploymentopportunitiesalthoughtheydouselocalcontractorsforspecifictasks.UnderthecurrentCAPsystemofBasicPaymentsandagri-environmentschemes(GlastirinWales)therehasbeenahighdependencyonsubsidesandlittleimmediateincentivetodiversify.Theaveragefarmbusinessincomeisdeclining.

• Welshfarmingoutputisheavilyfocussedonlivestockandlivestockproducts(86%oftotaloutput)1-inuplandareaspredominantlysheepon‘LessFavouredArea’land.

• TheProjectarea,coveringpartsofPowysandCeredigion,isoneofthemostsparselypopulatedinWalesandischaracterisedbyabout350smallandmediumsizedfarms(somewithextensiveuplandgrazingareas).Intheuplandareasthereareacombinationoftenantsandowneroccupiersengagedinextensivesheepproduction,withbeefproductioninthelowervalleysincomparativelysmall-scalefarmbusinesses,makingmodestincomes.Thereissomecommonland.

• IncomefromCAPsubsidiesoftenprovidesthelargestcontributiontofarmbusinessincome:forexample,in2013-2014,anaverageof74%2andupto80-90%forsomeuplandfarms.

• SheepmeatisWales’largestagriculturalexportbybothvolumeandvalue.40%ofsheepmeatproducedinWalesisexportedwiththreequartersofittotheEU3.

• Asidefromfarming,theSummittoSealandscapeincludesarangeofforestunitsofdifferingscalesand levelsof isolationorconnectivity. Theeconomicmodelsunderpinningmuchofthe upland forestry within the project area use a spruce plantation clear-fell and restockmanagementsystem.

• Tourismisimportanttotheeconomyofmid-Wales,with11.3%ofallemploymentintheregionbeinginthetourismsector,thehighestproportionofanyregioninWales.4

• In Cardigan Bay, themajority of fishing activity is small-scale and coastal. There are alsorecreationalandtourismoperations,e.g.dolphinwatchingandassociatedtourismactivityinNewQuaygenerated£4.9millionduringthe2013season.

• Some landowners have already utilised opportunities to diversify their revenues throughrenewable energy. Hill sheep farms, for example, earn on average £2,140 per year fromrenewableenergygeneration.5

• ThemajorurbanpopulationinthisregionistheuniversitytownofAberystwythwithnearly19,000people.

Assessmentofrelevantpost-Brexitpolicyreforms:

The short and long-term futureof subsidiespost-Brexit is still uncertainbut thereare some likelytrends. Under theWales Act 2017 both agriculture and environment policy are devolvedmatterswithinthecompetenceoftheWelshGovernment.Whatwedoknowisthat:

• The UK Government’s 25 Year Environment Plan states that the current Basic PaymentScheme (BPS) is tobephasedoutand replacedwith ‘a systemofpublicmoney forpublic

1ResearchBriefing:TheFarmingSectorinWales,p2.2FarmDiversification,WalesGovernment,availableat:http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/farm-diversification/?lang=en.3https://seneddresearch.blog/2017/03/27/understanding-welsh-exports-a-look-at-the-latest-regional-trade-statistics/4RegionalTourismProfiles:Mid-Wales,2014,WelshGovernment,availableat:http://cadair.aber.ac.uk/dspace/bitstream/handle/2160/42813/Garcia_Olga_upd.pdf?sequence=6&isAllowed=y5TheFarmBusinessSurveyinWales,AberystwythUniversity,availableat:https://www.aber.ac.uk/en/ibers/research-and-enterprise/fbs/booklets/see2016-17p7.

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goods’.ThephaseoutinWaleswillbeginin20206andislikelytobeundergreatpressuretoreduceovertimebeyondthat.

• Inasurveyoffarminghouseholds,27%statedthattheywouldbe“likely”or“highlylikely”toleavefarmingifsubsidiesfromcurrentEUschemescontinuedtofall.75%offarmersstatedtheirfarmbusinesseswouldbe“vulnerable”ifsubsidiescontinuedtofall.740%saidtheywouldpursuevariousstrategiesofdiversification,economies,agri-environmentalschemes,alternativeenterprisesandretirement8.

• Changes to post-Brexit trading arrangements are likely to cause particular challenges forWelsh sheep producers considering their high dependency on the exportmarket. If therewere no trade deal, the default position would be tariffs on all main commodities ofbetween5%-40%.Combinedwitha reduction insubsidies thiscouldprovecatastrophic touplandsheepproducerswhocurrentlyhavefewalternativeincomestreams.

• TheWelshGovernmentisclearlycommittedtoanambitiousprogrammeofenvironmentaldeliveryasevidencedbythe:- Environment (Wales) Act 2016: which aims to ensure a “joined up” approach to the

“SustainableManagementofNaturalResources”(SMNR),linkedtothedevelopmentofa low carbon, green economy. These will be enacted through locally specific ‘AreaStatements’whichwilllayouttherisks,opportunitiesandprioritiesthatarespecifictoaplace,ensuringlocalcollaborationtomakethemostofnaturalresources.

- Well-beingofFutureGenerations(Wales)Act2016:whichintegratessustainabilityintotheworkofpublicbodiesthroughestablishing7well-beinggoalsandestablishingPublicServiceBoards(PSBs)tocoordinatedelivery.

• TheWelshGovernment’s “Natural Resources Policy”9 launched in August 2017 contains anumber of significant relevant commitments, amongst them to complywith internationalenvironmentalobligations,to“reversethedeclineinbiodiversityacrossWales”andtouseapost-Brexitagriculturalpolicytodoso.

• TheWelsh Government is committed as a matter of both law and policy to introduce ascheme for paying farmers and landmanagers for the delivery of public goods, includingecological restoration. This was confirmed by Cabinet Secretary Lesley Griffiths in herspeech to theNFUconferenceon26February2018.Oneof fiveprinciples shementionedwas‘AndsomythirdprincipleisthatournewpolicyshouldcentreonWelshlanddeliveringpublicgoodsforallthepeopleofWales’.

• Itseemshighly likelythat ifdirectpaymentsareabolished,Welshfarmers,asawhole,willengage with a replacement system based on payments for public goods, if only becausetherearecurrentlyfewalternatives.

• Clear mechanisms for delivery of public goods have yet to be developed. This is anopportunity toproposetoWelshGovernmentpilotprojectswhichcanachievethekindoftransformation it seeks to stimulate, demonstrating how the sustainable management ofnatural resources can be delivered in practice and how the new legislative framework inWales is adding value. This could include piloting a group contract between multiplelandownersforthedeliveryofpublicgoodsasakeypartofatransitioneconomy.

• ThereisapossibleriskifthereispoliticalchangefollowingtheWelshAssemblyelectionsin2019. However, the risk is small as all parties have included references to supportingpaymentsforecosystemservicesorpublicgoodsintheirmanifestos.

6http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/basic-payment-scheme-phase-out-to-start-in-2020-in-wales.htm7AsurveyoffarminghouseholdsinWales,WalesRuralObservatory,availableat:http://www.walesruralobservatory.org.uk/sites/default/files/SurveyFarmingHouseholdsWales2010_0.pdf,p3.8http://businessdocbox.com/Agriculture/70821572-A-survey-of-farming-households-in-wales.html9https://gov.wales/docs/desh/publications/170821-natural-resources-policy-en.PDF

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• Inthehighlyunlikelyeventthatthepublicgoodspaymentmodeldoesnotmaterialise,S2Swill prioritise the percentage contribution of other economic alternatives e.g. tourism,forestry,naturalproductsetc. (seenextsection).Thetakeupof landownersmayhoweverbeataslowerrateandthetransitionphasewillthereforetakelonger.

• InrelationtoInternationalnaturelegislation,irrespectiveoftheUK’sdeparturefromtheEU,the UK remains a signatory to a number of international agreements committing it toecologicalrestoration,e.g.:- Article 8 (f) of TheConventiononBiologicalDiversity requires parties to “Rehabilitate

and restore degraded ecosystems and promote the recovery of threatened species”.Target3oftheAichiTargetsstatesthat”By200,incentives,includingsubsidies,harmfulto biodiversity are eliminated, and positive incentives for the conservation andsustainableuseofbiodiversityaredevelopedandapplied”.The ‘NatureRecoveryPlanforWales’10publishedin2015setsouthowWaleswilldeliverthecommitmentsoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity.

- Goal 15 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals is a commitment to “Sustainablymanage forests, combat desertification, halt and reverse land degradation, haltbiodiversityloss11”

• Moreover,undertheWithdrawalBill,theUKGovernmenthascommittedtotransposealldirectlyapplicableEUlawintoUKlaw.ThisincludesboththeBirdsDirectiveandtheHabitatsDirective.- Article 3 (1) of the Birds Directive provides “Member States shall take the requisite

measurestopreserve,maintainorre-establishasufficientdiversityandareaofhabitatsforallthespeciesofbirdsreferredtoinArticle1.12”

- Article 2 (1) of the Habitats Directive states “The aim of this Directive shall be tocontribute towardsensuringbio-diversity through the conservationofnaturalhabitatsand of wild fauna and flora”and under Art 1 conservation is defined as “a series ofmeasures required tomaintain or restore the natural habitats and the populations ofspeciesofwildfaunaandfloraatafavourablestatus”13.

• Accordingly,underbothinternationalandEUlaw,theWelshGovernmentiscommittedtoecologicalrestoration.TheseobligationscontinuepostBrexit.

10https://www.cbd.int/doc/world/gb/gb-nbsap-v3-p4-en.pdf11https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/biodiversity/12http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32009L014713http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:31992L0043

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Question2:Theproposaldoesn’tcurrentlyprovidemuchevidenceoftheextenttowhichdiversificationcanreduceorremovetheneedforsubsidies.Neitherdoesitexplainwhyitbelievesthattheproposed‘collective’approachwouldbeeconomicallyviable(buthasn’tpreviouslybeenadopted).Theprojectplanshouldexpandontheseaspects.

Summarypoints:

• Initialassessmentsindicatethatanature-basedeconomycouldprovideimprovedandstablerevenueopportunitiescomparedwiththecurrentsituationandfuturealternatives.

• Deliveryofpaymentsforpublicgoods,ifitistobeeffective,willmostlikelyneedtobeonacollectivebasis,bringingtogetheranumberofholdings.

• Collectivemechanismscanprovideeffectivemodelsforthelongtermstewardshipofnatural,productiveandculturalresources

• Thereare,asyet,noprecedentsatthisscaleinWalessoitwillbeimportanttolearnfromexperiencesandmodelsusedelsewhere.

Caseforadiversified,nature-basedeconomylinkedtoecologicalrestoration:

WehaveshownthatthecurrentruraleconomyintheS2SlandscapeismoreheavilyreliantonagriculturethaninotherpartsofWalesandislargelysupportedbysubsidiesandtradeinsheepmeat.Thismakeslocallivelihoodshighlyvulnerable.

Setagainstabackdropofeconomicandpoliticaluncertaintyrelatedto‘Brexit’,alongsidetraditionalagricultureandforestryS2Saimstoinspireandfosternewformsoflandusethattransitionlocalsocio-economiestobelessdependentonsubsidiesbygeneratinghigherlevelsofbusinessorientatedincome.WiththerichanddiversenaturalassetswithintheS2Sareatheprojectisproposingtosupporttheestablishmentofa‘nature-basedeconomy’.Thisisonethatissupportedbyincomeandemploymentopportunitieslargelyassociatedwithnaturalusesofthelandandsea.

Thiswouldseethediversityandabundanceofnaturebeingrestored,supportingthediversificationofthelocaleconomy.LinkedtothecreationofS2Sasaniconicdestinationaretheopportunitiesprovidedbynaturetourism,continuous-coverforestry,somehigh-nature-valuelivestockhusbandryandtheharvestingofnaturalproducts.Projectpartnershavealreadycommittedtorestoremorenaturallyfunctioningecosystemsacrossatleast5,000haintheS2Sarea.Providinganeconomicincentiveforotherlandownersaswellassea-userstodothesamecouldvastlyincreasethatareaandisakeyelementofourTheoryofChange.

S2ScommissionedConservationCapitaltocarryoutaninitialassessment-AnEconomicAssessmentforaNature-basedEconomyinMid-Wales.Thisexploredtheoverallpotentialforlandownersandcommunitiestotransitiontoanew,growing,morestable,lesssubsidy-reliantnature-basedeconomythatstillretainsagricultureandforestryatitscore.Itsoverallassessment,wasthat,foragriculturallandownersinparticular,anature-basedeconomy‘wouldprovideimprovedandstablerevenueopportunities’.Thisincludes:

• Landmanagement:itcanbeestimatedtogeneratearound£10meachyearinincomethroughfarmingintheS2Sarea.Atleast£7.5mofthisincomeisdirectlylinkedtosubsidycontributionsfromprogrammeslinkedtotheEU(or,anaverageofmorethan£20,000perfarm).Ifthecurrentsubsidylevelsfallby40%,thetotalincomegenerationfromfarmingfortheregioncoulddecreasebynearly£5m.Ifthesubsidylevelsdecreaseby80%,thesizeofthefarmingeconomycouldalmostbeathirdofwhatitistoday.Itishighlylikelythatsubsidyincomewillcontinueintheshorttermbutbere-orientatedtowardspublicgoodsprovidinganimportanttransitionincomeforlandownersintheS2Sarea.Inthelongertermitisrealistictoassumethat1)incomeswouldcontinuetobeboostedbyacombinationofpublicpaymentsandprivatesectorpaymentforecosystemservices(i.e.20-30%offarmbusinessincome)ratherthanbedependentonthem

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and2)theshortfallinincomecanbereplacedbyincomethroughtourism,highnature-valuefoodandnaturalproducts.

• Tourism:itcanbeestimatedthattourismcurrentlycontributesabout£21mtotheregioneachyearandprovidesmorethan400jobsbasedon300,000overnighttouristvisitsayear.Iftourismnumbersandaveragespendpertouristcontinuetogrowatthesamerateastheyhavegrowninrecentyears,thentourismmaycontributeabout£37.5mandnearly800jobsintenyears’time.Withfurtherinvestmentlinkedtoarecognisedbrandthiscouldaccelerate,mirroringtheUKwidetrendthattourismnowgeneratesmorerevenueandprovidesmoreemploymentfortheruralsectorthanfarming.TourismintheUKisnotuniversallywelcomedbylocalcommunities,asitcanbeveryseasonal,employmentcanbelowpaidandcasualanditcannegativelyaffectlocalhousingprovisionwhilethebenefitsflowtothosewithcapitalassetssuchasaccommodationproviders.Theprojectneedstobemindfuloftheserisksandtoseektodevelopeco-tourismatalevelwhichprovidesadditionalopportunitiesbutdoesn’tnegativelyimpactonlocalcommunities.

• Forestry:itisroughlyestimatedthatforestrygeneratesanincomeofaround£1.55millionperannumintheSummittoSearegion.Therearecurrentlynosubsidiesforforestrymanagement.Itishardtodrawrobustconclusionsbutthiscouldremainstableoverthelongtermunderalternativesilviculturalpracticessuchasirregularforestmanagement(includingcontinuouscoverforestry(CCF)andLowImpactSilviculturalSystems)byrebalancingobjectivesofproductivitywiththoseofbiodiversityandecosystemresilience

• Foodandnaturalproducts:thereareincreasedopportunitiesthroughcreatingaregional“brandofquality”thatlinksincreasedfoodqualitywithincreasedenvironmentalbenefit.A2016studyhasshownthatsuchmethodsoffarmingcanbemoreprofitable(typicallybetween22%and35%)evenonthesmalleryieldsuchfarmingbringsbecausesomeconsumersarewillingtopaymorefortheproduct.Therearealsoopportunitiesforcommercialisingwildproductssuchasherbs,mossesandseaweeds.

Anyshiftfromthecurrenteconomytoanature-basedeconomycouldnothappenovernight.TherewillbeacleartransitionphasethetimeframeofwhichwouldvarydependingonarangeoffactorsincludingtheoutcomesoftheBrexitprocess,marketconditionsandthelevellandowner/communityinterest.

Currentruraleconomy:agriculturesupportedbysubsidies+forestry.

TransiZonphaseeconomy:someagriculturesupportedbysubsidies+newnature-basedeconomicacviPty(e.g.,naturetourism+food&naturalproducts)supportedbysubsidiesandfunding+alternaPveforestrymodels.

Nature-basedeconomy:Sustainablemanagementofalltypesofnaturalresourcesthroughwidevarietyofnature-basedeconomicacPviPes+nature-friendlyproducPveacPviPes+alternaPveforestrymodelsboostedbysubsidiesandfunding.

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Basedonthisinitialassessmentwehaveheldanumberofmeetingsandworkshopstofurthertestoutwhetherthereis1)agenuinebusinesscasefora'nature-based'economyand2)whetherthereislocalinterestinexploringitasaviableland/seamanagementalternative.ThoseinvolvedhaveincludedEdenProject,ConservationCapital,Arup,PukkaTeas,BusinessWalesandFarmer’sUnionforWalesaswellasprojectpartners.Allagreethatthereispotentialforanature-basedeconomyintheareaandsupporttheproposaltomovetoafullfeasibilityanddesignphasebasedonbuildingasharedvisionthatrespectslocalvaluesandaspirations.WehaveincludedanassessmentoftherisksandriskreductionstrategiesassociatedwiththisintheRiskAssessmentsection.

Takingacollectiveapproach

AkeyelementofS2S’sToCisthatsomeformofcommonagreementwillberequiredtocoordinatebothecologicalandeconomicactionsovermultiplelandholdingsandthemarinearea.Acollaborativemodeloffersanalternativeinwhichlocalpeople–bothlandandseausers,andthewidercommunity–canhelpshapealocalfutureontheirowntermsandbasedonsharedvalues.Whilsttherearehistoricalprecedentsforcommunitiesworkingcollectivelyinthearea,morerecentlytheindividualisedfarmbusinessmodelbasedonsubsidypaymentshasprovidedlittleincentivetodoso.Ithasalreadybeendemonstratedthatsuchacollectiveapproach,withclearlydefinedcodesofuse,canoutperformindividually-focusedmodelsofstateandmarketgovernanceinthestewardshipofnatural,productiveandculturalresources14.

Futuresubsidypaymentstofarmersandlandmanagerswillinalllikelihoodfocusontheprovisionofpublicgoods.Deliveryofthiswillbemoreeffectiveonacollectivebasis,bringingtogetheranumberofholdings.ThisplacestheS2SPartnershipinapositiontobuildacommonplatform,agreeinggroupcontractsforthedeliveryofecosystemservicesandsecuringadditionalincome.Oneofthewaysofachievingthischangeisthrough“farmclusters”15withgroupsoffarmerscomingtogethertoappointafacilitatortoco-ordinatedeliveryatscale.TheWelshgovernmentisalreadyprovidingfacilitatorstosupporttheseclusterstosubmitbidstotheSustainableManagementScheme.

Withsufficientcommunitybuy-in,furtheroptionsarebeingexploredforestablishingamechanism/structuretocoordinategovernanceanddecision-makingacrosstheS2Sarea.WehavecommissionedinitialscopingstudiesbySharedAssets16andConservationCapital17tolookintothepotentialgovernanceandmanagementoptionslearningfromotherexperiencesbothintheUKandfurtherafield.

Theyhavesuggestedthatnoonesinglemodelofgovernance,decision-makingandmanagementislikelytoprovidethesolutionbutthatablendedapproachofdifferent‘nested’structurestailoredtolocalcircumstancesmaybeamoresustainableapproach.Thiswouldseestakeholdersincludingindividuals,landowners,businessesandnaturalresourcemanagersformingacommitmenttorestoretheland/seascapefornatureandwildlifewhilstagreeingtoanelementofrevenueandbenefitsharing.AconstitutedS2Spartnershipstructure,governedbyaboarddrawnfrompartnersandlocalstakeholders,wouldthenhelpcoordinateactivitiesincluding:

• Facilitatingengagementofcommunitiesandotherlandownerswiththeprogrammeusingenterpriseasatoolorlever;

• Supportinglocalentrepreneurstodevelopconservationfocusedenterprisesoftheirown;• Formingeffectivelinkagesbetweenallconservationenterprisesandlandownersinthe

regionwhohaveorcouldbecommittedtotheprogramme;

14E.g.Ostrom,E.(1999)‘Copingwithtragediesofthecommons’andRaworth,K(2017)DoughnutEconomics.15http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/how-the-farmer-clusters-conservation-system-works.htm16http://www.sharedassets.org.uk/17http://www.conservation-capital.com

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• Raisingfinancefortheseconservationenterprises–intheformofgrants,loansandinvestment.

Question3:Theproposalispresentedbasedonthecontributionthattheprojectmakestoconnectingmountainsummitstothesea.However,ecologicallinkagesinthisregardaremostlyassumedratherthandescribed.Theprojectplanshouldexplaintheselinkagesinmoredetailandshowhowplannedinterventions–onlandandatsea–willenhanceconnectivityandoutcomesintherespectivelandscape/seascapeelements.

Water,itsquantity,flowratesandquality,connectsmostofthelandintheprojectareaandinturntheestuaryandthemarineenvironment.Thelakes,streamsandestuaryhavenaturallylownutrientlevels.Historically,bothintentionallyandun-intentionally,managementandlandusehasresultedinthehighannualaveragerainfallof2600mmbeingcollectedandchannelleddownhillandouttoseaasfastaspossible,whilepickingupnutrients,sedimentandotherpollutantsonitsjourney.

Thisstartsintheuplandswheresoilcompactionandreducedvegetationstructure,largelyduetosheepgrazing,hascausedincreasedrun-offrates.Landdrainagemeansthatwhatwaterdoessoakinisquicklyshedthroughpeatandgrasslands.Thepeatisnegativelyaffectedbythereducedwaterlevelsandthenaturalvegetationstrugglestocompetewithpurplemoorgrasswhichthrivesovermovingwater.

Asyoumovefurtherdownhillthestreamsandsmallriversareaffectedbyacidificationfromconiferplantations,pollutionfromoldmines,nutrientrun-offfromfarmland,sedimentfromsoildisturbancebyforestry,agricultureandlivestock,man-madebarrierstofishassociatedwitholdmillsandcanalisationtowardsthecoast.Manyoftherestorationelementsoftheprojectwilltakeplaceontheland(drainandditchblocking,reductionofgrazing,changestoforestrypractices,woodlandcreation)buttheyarealsointendedtohaveapositiveimpactonthefreshwaterhabitats.Forexample,throughreducingpollutionenteringthestreamsandeventuallythesea,andtherateofrunoff.Inturnthiswillreducethefloodrisktocommunitiesatthebottomofthecatchment.

Theintentionistoinitiallyfocuscoordinatedland,riparian,estuarineandmarinerestorationactivitiesaroundtheLeririver,asinglesub-catchmentoftheDyfi,inordertodemonstratetheimpactsofacatchmentwide‘summittosea’approach.Initiallybarrierstofishwillberemoved,landusepollutionintheheadwaterswillbereducedandriparianhabitatsrestored.Attheestuarineendofthecatchmentisthe650haCorsFochnoraisedpeatbog,aNationalNatureReservemanagedbyNaturalResourcesWales.Thisareahasreceivedpartof£4milliongrantfromtheEULIFEprogrammeforworkinvolvinghydrologicalrestorationandinvasivespeciescontrol.Inthelongertermtheaimisde-canalisethefinalstretchoftheLeririverthatleadsacrossthe650haCorsFochnoraisedpeatbogtotheDyfiestuaryandourintothesea.Thereareanumberofspecieswhichusethemarineenvironmentandthefreshwateroruplandhabitatsintheprojectareawhichwehopewillbestrengthenedthroughtherestorationworkplanned.

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Diagram2:SummittoSeaTheoryofChange

Diagramkey:greenbox=goal;blueboxes=outcomes;yellowboxes=outputs

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3. Logical Framework Matrix _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Projectsummary MeasurableIndicators Meansofverification ImportantAssumptions

Goal/ Impact : 10,000 ha of land and 28,400ha of sea of the Summit to Sea (S2S) area supporting recovering ecosystems and in transition towards a self-sustaining nature-based economy that provides alternative livelihoods for local communities

Outcome 1 : 10,000ha of land and 28,400ha of sea in process of ecological restoration either as core or buffer areas with collective agreement of owners/stewards.

Area of land/seascapes where natural processes are in process of restoration.

Baseline monitoring, remote sensing etc.

Project attracts additional partners/owners with significant land holdings and/or is able to purchase parcels of land.

Outputs : 1.1 Agreement of owners/stewards to transition towards 5,000 ha core area and 5,000 ha buffer areas

No. of landowners in agreements (individual or collective) to undertake specific management actions.

Management agreements / contracts. Database of owners/users involved.

Some form of Post Brexit rural support / payment for public goods is available at least in a transition phase to enable land owners to carry out restoration work.

1.2 Ecological restoration underway on 3-4 demonstration core areas of at least 5,000 ha

Area of land where habitat under process of restoration. Populations of common birds and butterflies Recovery of plant species diversity Improvement in freshwater ecology Ecological connectivity Diversity from acoustic monitoring Flood risk reduction Change in carbon storage

Baseline monitoring, remote sensing etc

Owners agree to coordinate and extend restoration interventions.

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1.3 Establishment of a 28,400ha community co-managed marine area where seabed is in recovery

Co-management agreement in place No. sea-users engaged in agreement Area of sea where habitat in process of restoration through community agreed management actions. Changes in the distribution and abundance of crawfish and carpet mussel beds

Collective agreements and log of actions. Seasearch surveys

Sea users are motivated to participate. Their combined actions lead to seabed recovery.

1.4 Feasibility assessments and plans in place for the reintroduction / recovery of key missing species where there is local support

Key species identified and baseline populations established

Report on status of key species. Feasibility and consultation reports.

Pine marten recovery programme continues to be successful/accepted locally.

Outcome 2: Phase 1 nature-based enterprises and infrastructure established linked to an iconic S2S destination providing alternative income streams as part of a transition economy

Changes in the contribution of nature-based enterprises to the local/regional economy

Annual surveys of incomes and revenue.

Recovering nature is sufficient to drive revenue before benefits of fully restored ecosystems are available

Outputs: 2.1 Feasibility studies and an integrated Business Plan developed for the S2S area attracting investment for the establishment of local nature-based enterprises

Finalised feasibility studies and Business Plan. Amount of inward enterprise investment secured.

Business plans and investment figures.

Local businesses choose to associate with Summit to Sea

2.2 Tourism infrastructure designed and constructed e.g. community-run bunkhouse in the upland area; visitor’s hub in the lowland area; walking tracks to connect the two.

Increase in high quality infrastructure in place linked to S2S. No. of and levels of satisfaction of people using infrastructure created.

Visitor number and satisfaction surveys

Capital costs covered and visitor numbers sufficient to cover running costs

2.3 Diverse range of nature-based productive and service enterprises established linked to S2S vision and brand which bring new economic opportunities to the area.

Number, turnover and investment into nature-based businesses associated with S2S brand.

Survey and data collection from enterprises

Collaboration with local initiatives to avoid competition on branding. Nature based business development advice and investment available.

2.4 Increased local employment prospects through investment in relevant training as well as procurement of local goods/services

Number and diversity of income opportunities created for local people.

Surveys of local employment related to Summit to Sea.

No net loss of existing employment opportunities due to project

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2.5 Mechanisms in place to generate alternative and transition income streams for landowners, farmers and fishers through public and corporate Payments for Ecosystem Services.

Level of income generated through payments for public goods/PES schemes

Business turnover – revenue surveys and government statistics.

Some form of Post Brexit rural support / payment for public goods is available at least in a transition phase to enable land owners to carry out restoration work.

Outcome 3: A S2S partnership established between owners/stewards and key stakeholders with effective governance mechanisms for collective decision-making and sharing revenue/benefits.

Number of institutions (including local government, NGO, private sector, community based organisations) participating in the project.

Records of partnership meetings. Evidence of management / strategic decisions made.

Outputs: 3.1 Effective team established to manage and organise S2S enterprise development and ecological restoration.

Measure of change in the team’s capacity and effectiveness.

Meeting minutes and performance reviews.

Partners have staff capacity to contribute effectively to team

3.2 Interested owners/stewards have agreed to become part of a coordinated approach to managing natural assets within the S2S area.

No. of landowners in agreement/s to undertake specific management actions.

Records of meetings/focus groups/ 1:1 interviews. Database of owner/uses involved.

S2S is able to develop a business offer to land owners which is better than the alternatives post Brexit.

3.3 Appropriate legal entity and governance strutures established which enable collective decision-making and provide effective mechanisms to share revenue/benefits.

Collective agreement in place between landowners/sea users to agree management across specific project areas.

Records of legal entity, governance meeting minutes, database of owner/uses involved.

Appropriate legal entity/governance mechanisms are found and are workable.

3.4 Codes for the use and management of land/marine natural resources agreed through mutual consent/interest.

Codes in place and number of stakeholders signed up to them.

Management agreements and logs of process of decision-making

It is possible to design such codes to be meaningful and acceptable to land owners

Outcome 4: Local communities and wider public engaged in informing, shaping, monitoring, learning about and benefitting from S2S

No. of people participating in decisions, activities and events relating to the S2S project

Enough different sectors of the community see benefits in engaging.

Outputs: 4.1 Increased knowledge, awareness and understanding of the cultural/natural heritage of the area and of S2S’s collective vision for the future.

Increased no. of people accessing information on S2S and cultural/natural heritage Level and quality of interaction with and

Social media analysis, records of attendance at events Social surveys, CVM workshops.

Collaboration with other local initiatives with overlapping aims to reduce stakeholder fatigue.

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use of the land / seascape

4.2 Participatory mechanisms in place for local people to input their knowledge, views and concerns to engage in shaping the project

No. of people inputting their views into local forums, community panels, stakeholders workshops. Extent to which vision and values of project shared between community/ stakeholders

Evidence of attendance at engagement events/ working groups. Interviews, observations, CVM workshops etc.

Enough different sectors of the community see benefits in engaging.

4.3 Projects for local people, schools, communities and cultural groups to actively engage and to volunteer in the project.

No. of volunteer hours contributed to the project. No. of people involved in citizen’s science, community monitoring projects etc

Records of volunteer hours and people’s involvement.

Partners see benefit in broadening their outreach work to include wider Summit to Sea project.

4.4 Increased access to experiences of nature and wildlife that improve health and well-being (youth at risk etc).

Level and quality of interaction with and use of the land / seascape

Visitor number and satisfaction surveys.

Enough different sectors of the community see the benefits of engaging.

Outcome 5: Policy/legislative mechanisms in place which support delivery of S2S’s long-term approach

Outputs: 5.1 S2S approach incorporated into Welsh Government Marine and Mid-Wales Area Statements as well other supportive policy and delivery mechanisms.

Changes in national or regional policy and delivery mechanisms which support the S2S approach.

Records, e.g. of area statements consultations and outcomes.

NRW and Welsh Government are committed to delivering on the commitments in the new Environment and Well Being Acts.

5.2 Pilot approach in place working with Welsh Government and owners/stewards to establish a group contract to deliver public goods at a catchment scale.

Number of landowners with group contracts in place and area covered.

Government records. Welsh Government has control over some form of post-Brexit rural support / payment for public goods.

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4. Work plan __________________________________________________________________________________

Seedocumentattached-Wales_4.WorkPlan

5. Evidence base __________________________________________________________________________________

Seedocumentattached–Wales_5.EvidenceBase

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6. Testing interventions __________________________________________________________________________________

Title: Comparingvegetationrestorationtrajectoriesunderstandardconservationgrazingregimesandunderzerograzing.

Description of the intervention: Whatareyourobjectives?Whatexactlyisthetechniqueorapproachthatyouwanttotest?Whatisyourhypothesis?

Wewanttotestwhetheraperiodof5yearsofzerograzingonpreviouslygrazedsemi-naturalhabitats(heathlandandbog)ispreferableforecologicalrestorationorwhethercontinuouslowlevel“conservationgrazing”reallyisabetteroption.Wewillcompareplantcommunitiesinconservationgrazedsites,insiteswheregrazingisremovedearlyintheprojector10mx10mgrazingexclosuresandalsoonsitesthathavebeenundernograzingregimesforlongerperiodsandcontrolsitesunderconventionalgrazingmanagement.

Thehypothesisisthatallowingarestperiodofzerograzingforseveralyearsorevenseveraldecadesonpreviouslyovergrazedsitesonpoorsoilsandintheuplandswillenableecosystemrecoverytohappenfasterandtheincreaseinbiodiversitytobegreaterthanunderstandardconservationlivestockgrazingregimes.

Weanticipatepassiverestorationandnaturalisticgrazingtobeprominentinterventions,butappliedtovaryingdegreesincoreandbufferzones.Wearealsofortunatetohaveseveralsitesintheprojectareawheregrazinghasbeenremovedsomeyearsbeforetheprojectstarted.Wewilltesthowtheseinterventionsinfluencevegetationrecoveryagainstcontrolsitesinourstudyregion.

Relevance of the intervention and issue to landscape restoration Isitacommonrestorationinterventionofwidespreadrelevance?

GrazingbydomesticlivestockisawidespreadconservationmanagementapproachusedintheUK.Removaloflivestockaltogetherisamuchrarermanagementdecision.Inpartthisisbecausemanyofourremaininghabitatsaretheproductofhistoricalagriculturallanduse(habitatsthatcouldn’tsurvivegrazingtendtohavebeenreplacedwithsomethingthatcould)soitisassumedthatwhathassurvivedcenturiesofgrazingrepresentsthebestthatthosesitescouldbeandsocontinuedcontrolofnaturalsuccessionbecomestheaim.Itisalsopartlybecauseoftheculturalattachmenttowhatweknowandpartlythegenuinedesiretoavoidruraldepopulationandtosupportcontinuedagricultureinordertopreventthat.

Whyisunderstandingthisissueimportant?

Thereisstilldisagreementbetweendifferentecologistsandbetweenecologistsandfarmersaboutwhethergrazingbylivestockisessential/helpfulorharmfulforrestorationandmaintenanceofnaturalhabitatsintheabsenceofnativewildherbivores.Uplandsitesandsiteswithpoorsoilsmayrespondbettertozerograzingthanlowersitesandthosewithbettersoilsorhigherartificialnutrientlevelswhicharemorelikelytobecomedominatedbycoarsevegetationsuchasbrambleandbrackenifgrazingisremoved.Takingbetterlandoutofgrazingisalsomorechallengingbecauseinanareaofgenerallypooragriculturalland(mostlygrade4and5)thosearethesiteswherefoodproductionismoreviableeconomically.Thisstudywillfocusonupland/poorsoilsiteswhereremovalofgrazingwillhaveleastimpactonfoodproductionandwheremorepositivebiodiversity

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impactsareanticipated.ThispartofMid-Walesisunusualinthatithasnoestablisheddeerpopulationalthoughroedeerarestartingtobeseenslightlymoreofteninthelast5years.MuchoftheSSSI’sandquitealotofotherlandintheprojectareaissubjecttoaconservationgrazingregimeaspartofagri-environmentschemes.MoredetailedinformationontheareascoveredbyconservationgrazingbothwithinandwithoutSSSI’swillbesought.

Isitcommonforinitiativestofailbecausethisissueisnotunderstood?

Whilethistestingofaninterventionisn’tfocusedonSSSI’s,thatiswheremostinteresthasbeenintermsofthedebatearoundgrazingandconservationoutcomes.MostSSSI’sinWalesarestillinunfavourableconditiondespiteyearsofsubsidisedconservationgrazing.Thereareafew(5)knownsitesinandaroundtheprojectarea–bothdesignatedandnon-designatedwhichhavenotbeengrazedforbetween3and40years18.Ecologistsaregenerallyenthusiasticabouttheratesoflowerplant,heathandbogcommunityregenerationontheseungrazedsitesalthoughsomegovernmentecologistsresponsibleforSSSImanagementandmanyfarmersremainlargelyunconvincedabouttheenvironmentalbenefitsofreducingorremovinggrazingandfarmersoftencommentthatithasallowedMolineacaerulea(purplemoorgrass)toexpandwhichisnotconsideredusefuleitherforfarmersorwildlife.Itisimportanttonotethatremovalofgrazingfromunenclosedhilllandandespeciallyfromcommonlandiscomplicatedwhereflocksofsheephavebeenheftedtoaparticularpartofthehillovermanygenerationsbecauseoncetheyareremoveditisnoteasytoreplacetheminthefutureandthiscontributestothereluctanceoffarmerstogodownthisroute.Forthisreasonitwillbenecessarytoconstructexclusionplotsonsomesitesbuttherealsoaresomesiteswheregrazingisbeingremovedorhasalreadybeenremovedandsomeofthesecouldbeincluded.

Whowillbeinterestedinyourresults–andhowwilltheresultsbeshared?

Wethinkthatecologists,bothgovernmentandnon-governmentalwillbeinterestedintheresultsandfarmerswhoarekeenthattheirconservationmanagementdoesdeliverbenefitsandisrecognisedforthat.WealsothinkthatWelshGovernmentwillbeinterestedifithasthepotentialtohelpbringmoredesignatedsitesbackintofavourablecondition.Wewillsharetheresultswithpartners,government,farmers,farmers’representativesandecologistsviaaresearchpaperandamoreaccessiblesummarypaperinpartners’newslettersandontheprojectwebsite.

Areyousurethatthequestionhasnotalreadybeenanswered?

Reviewpapersindicatethattherehasbeensomeworkinthisareabutthescientificdebateisclearlynotsettledandworkhasn’tbeendoneonzerograzingintheprojectarea.Thereisalsostillconsiderabledebatelocallyaboutwhethergrazingisessentialorindeeddamagingforuplandsites.

Reviewreferences:• TheConservationEvidencepageonremovinggrazingreportsmixedresultsandconcludesthat

moreevidenceisneeded:Dicks,L.V.,Ashpole,J.E.,Dänhardt,J.,James,K.,Jönsson,A.,Randall,N.,Showler,D.A.,Smith,R.K.,Turpie,S.,WilliamsD.R.&Sutherland,W.J.(2018)FarmlandConservationPages245-284in:W.J.Sutherland,L.V.Dicks,N.Ockendon,S.O.Petrovan&R.K.Smith(eds)WhatWorksinConservation2018.OpenBookPublishers,Cambridge,UK.https://www.conservationevidence.com/actions/150

• Stuart,G.B.&PullenA.S.(2008)Therelativeimportanceofgrazingstocktypeandgrazingintensityforconservationofmesotrophic‘oldmeadow’pasture.TheJournalforNatureConservation16pages175-185

18 2sites40years,1site22years,2sites10years,plusonesite3years–then6poniesin350acreswereaddedthisyear.

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Experimental design

Thesizeandstructureoftheinvestigation:

Wewillcreateadatabaseofsitesthatcouldbeusedwithdetailsofmanagement(andmanagementhistorywherepossible)andhabitatsbeforeselectingspecificsites.Wewillexplorehowthereductionofgrazingaffectsvegetationcommunitystructureandplantdiversityinuplandsitesandothersiteswithpoorqualitysoils.Specifically,wewillinvestigatehowcurrentlyheavilygrazedsitesrespondtotwotreatments:1)low-levelconservationgrazingregimes,and2)zero-grazing.Thesesiteswillbecomparedagainstcontrolsitesthatremainathighgrazingpressure.Wewillalsoexplorevegetationstructureandspeciesdiversityinsitesthathavenotbeengrazedforlongerperiods(between3and40years)toassessthelikelylong-termimplicationsofreducinggrazingpressure.

Numberoftreatments/replicates:

Twoorthreepairedsites–oneofeachpairbeingunderstandardNRWSSSIconservationgrazinglevelsforthathabitatandoneofeachpairbeingnewlyungrazed.Thesecanbeeithersimilarsitesunderdifferentmanagementorusingfencedexclosuresonotherwisegrazedsites.Ifseparatesitesareusedwewillestablishthree10mx10mplotsoneachsite,ifusingexclosuresongrazedsiteswewillestablishsix,paired10x10mplots(sothreepairsofplots),andfenceoneplotofeachpairtoexcludegrazers.Vegetationwithinfivequadratsineachplotwillbemonitoredeachyear.

Additionallywewillestablish15vegetationsamplingquadratsononeortwolongtermungrazedsitesandoneortwotraditionallygrazedsites.Wewillneedtocontrolasfaraspossibleforaltitude,aspect,slope,exposure,drainageandsoil/geologytype.

Inuplandareaswithpoorsoilsthathaverecentlybeenheavilygrazed,threesitesthatimplementconservationgrazingregimesandthreesitesthatimplementzero-grazingwillbeselected.Ateachofthesesites,threepairsof10x10msamplingplotswillbesituated.Largeherbivoreexclosurefencingwillbeplacedaroundoneofeachpair.Ideallyitwouldbeplacedaroundbothtoaccountforanyimpactofthefencingitselfandalsoonofficiallyungrazedsitestotestwhetherstraylivestockorrabbitsarehavingasignificantimpact,butthisisnotessential.Thevegetationstructureofeachplotwillbemappedeitherusingsystematicgroundmeasurementsorahand-heldLiDARdeviceorSfM(StructurefromMotion)usingsimplehand-helddigitalphotographyandappropriatesoftwaresuchasAGISoft.Withineach10x10mplot,five1m2fixedquadratswillberandomlydistributed.Withineachquadrat,plantspecieswillbeidentifiedandtheircoverrecordedontheDominscale.Wewillusethesedatatoestablishhowthevegetationcommunityintermsofstructureanddiversityrespondstoconservationgrazingandzero-grazingmanagementstrategies.Fifteen10x10msampleswillalsobeestablishedinsitesthathavenotbeengrazedfor3yearsormore.Theremaybeopportunitiestoestablishadditionalexclusionplotsonsitesthatarecurrentlymoreheavilygrazedbuttheexactdetailsofwhatispossiblewillneedtobeworkedoutoncetheprojectisfullyoperational.

Useofcontrols:

Thecontrolswillbethesitesmanagedunderstandardconservationgrazingregimesforaknownperiodoftime.Thesewillbecomparedwithsiteswheregrazinghasbeenremovedataknownpointinthepastandwheregrazingisremovedduringtheperiodoftheproject.Inthecaseoffencedexclosuresthevegetationwillbesurveyedbeforethefencingiscompletedasabaseline.Controlsiteswillbeestablishedinareasofhighergrazingpressurewheremanagementpracticeshaven’tchangedasaresultoftheproject.

Randomization:

Siteswillbeselectedusingastratifiedrandomapproach.SiteshapefileswillbeenteredintoaGeographicInformationSystem(GIS)andrandomco-ordinateswillbegeneratedforeachplot.

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Theseco-ordinateswillbeenteredintoahand-heldGPSdevicetobelocatedontheground.Plotswillbeatleast200mapartfromeachother.

Location:

Atthisstageitisn’tpossibletolocateallthesamplingsitesbecauseoutsidepartnerownedlanditwilldependonlandownerpermissionbutwehaveseveralpartnerownedsitesunderarangeofgrazingregimesinthelowlandsandintheuplands.Seemapofpartnerownedlandfordetails.

TimetableFixedpointsamplingsiteswillbeestablishedineachstudyregionpriortothecommencementofinterventionstoallowbaselinedatatobecollected.

Eachplotwillbeestablished(includingtheconstructionofexclosurefencing)andbaselinevegetationstructureandplantspeciesdiversitydatawillbecollectedinthesummerofyearone(2019).Samplingwillberepeatedeveryotheryear(oreveryyearifMSc/MResstudentscanbeinvolvedindatacollection).Reportswillbeproducedaftereachdatacollectionperiodtomonitorthetrajectoryofecologicalrecovery.

Analysis(useofstatistics):

Speciesdiversityindiceswillbecalculatedforeachquadratineachtreatment.AnANOVAwillbeusedtocomparethespeciesdiversitybetweenthetwotreatments(conservationgrazing,zerograzing)andthecontrol(heavygrazing).AnANOVAwillalsobeusedtocomparethestructuraldiversity(standarddeviationofvegetationheight)ofthevegetationbetweentheplotsofthetwotreatmentsandthecontrolsites.WewillconsideruseofPrincipleControlledAnalysis(PCA)inaddition.

Budget:

• Design,qualitycontrol,analysisandwriteup:10days@£750plustravelandsubsistence=£8,500

• Fencingofexclosures:£365each(x6plots=£2,190,x9plots=£3,285)inyear1• Monitoringofquadrats:£150/plot(x12plots=£1800,x18plots=£2700)tobedoneinyears

1,3and5=£5,400-£8,100• Totalcost:£19,885(thismaybereducedifMScstudentscanbeinvolvedinsomeofthework).

Responsibilities Whowillberesponsibleforconductingtheinvestigationandcarryingouttheanalysis?

DrChrisSandomofSussexUniversitywilldesigntheexperiment,overseetheresearchandcarryouttheanalysis.

Recordingoutcomes,writeupandcommunication:

Localecologistswillbeemployedtocollectfielddataandwriteuptheresults.Theprojectcommunicationstaffwillberesponsibleforsharingtheresults.

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7. Team management __________________________________________________________________________________

OverallresponsibilityandoversightfortheS2SprojectlieswithRewildingBritainasprogrammaticleadandWoodlandTrustasfinancelead.

TheS2Sprojectpartners,whohaveallbeenactivelyinvolvedindesigninganddevelopingtheprojectproposal,arejointlyresponsibleforitsimplementation.Theybringacombinationofpracticalexpertiseaswellasthelandownershiprequiredtoensureitseffectivedelivery.Thesepartnersare:MontgomeryshireWildlifeTrust,NaturalResourcesWales,WalesWildLandFoundation,TheRSPB,WoodlandTrust,VincentWildlifeTrust,MarineConservationSociety,WhaleandDolphinConservation,PenLlyna`rSarnauSAC,ecodyfiandTheWaterlooFoundation.

ApartnershipSteeringGrouphasbeenestablishedwithoneleadpersonfromeachpartnerorganisation.Ithasastrategicroletoguideandreviewthedevelopmentoftheprojectandmonitoritsprogress.Thegroupwillmeetonceaquartertoreviewprogress,provideadvice,troubleshootwherenecessaryandinputintostrategicdecisions.AstheprojectdevelopsnewpartnersmaycomeonboardwhobringadditionalskillstotheprojectatthediscretionoftheSteeringGroup.

AManagementTeamhasalsobeenestablishedtobeledbytheS2SProgrammeManagerrecruitedbyRewildingBritain.InclosecoordinationwithWoodlandTrust’sDirectorforWalesandProjectAccountant,theroleofthissmallergroupistoleadandcoordinatetheproject’sdelivery.Theteamwillbeexpandedthroughrecruitingorsecondinginanenterprisedevelopmentspecialist,communityoutreachworkers,ecologicalrestorationcoordinator,communicationsleadandaProjectsOfficer.Theteamwillalsohaveacoupleofpartnerrepresentatives.

ThedivisionofinitialresponsibilitiesbetweentheSteeringGroupandManagementGroupisdescribedinthefollowingtable.Theseresponsibilitieswillbefurtherdefinedandatermsofreferenceagreedoncetheprojectteamisinplace.

SteeringGroup ManagementGroupMembers:Allprojectpartners–oneleadpersonfromeachorganisation

Members:RewildingBritainProgrammeManager,WoodlandTrustDirectorforWales,MWT,WWLF,NRWplusprojectstaff.

Responsibilities:Reviewandsign-offprojectdesign.AgreeTermsofReferenceasgroupdevelopsReviewandsignoffquarterlyexpenditure–financialoversight.Signoffandcoordinatingcommunicationsagainstagreedprotocol/statementsReportbacktorespectiveorganisationsDiscussandcoordinateassociatedfundingbidsRiskmanagementConsensusdecision-makingwhereverpossible–voteatorganisationlevelifnotpossible

Responsibilities:Leadonandcoordinatethedeliveryoftheproject.Ensurecoherenceandcoordinationofprojectactivitiesacrosspartnership.CoordinateTaskGroupsReporttotheSteeringGroupDevelopcommunicationsprotocolTroubleshootingandopportunityspotting.Coordinateinputfromofficers/contractorsDiscussandcoordinateassociatedfundingbidsConsensusdecision-makingwhereverpossible–ifnotreferuptoSteeringGroup

Frequencyofmeeting: Frequencyofmeeting:

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Onceaquarter Monthly,canbebyvideoconference

Theoverallstructurefortheprojectsgovernanceandmanagementisdescribedinthediagrambelow.

StrategicOversightOverallresponsibilityfordeliveryofproject.SeniorrepresentativesofRewildingBritain(asprogrammaticlead)WoodlandTrust(asfinancelead)

CCI-CambridgeConservationInitiativeManagingELP

TaskGroups

PenLlyna’rSarnauSAC

WhaleandDolphin

Conservation

VincentWildlifeTrust

WalesWildLand

Foundation

NaturalResourcesWales

WildlifeTrusts

RSPB

MarineConservationSociety

ManagementTeamRewildingBritain:ProgrammeManagerWoodlandTrust:ProjectAccountantProjectStaff:seebelowPartnerrepresentatives:MWT,WWLF,NRW

SteeringCommitteeProvidesstrategicdirectionfortheproject.Leadby:RewildingBritain:ProgrammaticleadWoodlandTrust:Financeco-leadPlusrepresentativesofallpartners:RSPB,WildlifeTrusts,NaturalResourcesWales,MarineConservationSociety,WhaleandDolphinConservation,WalesWildLandFoundation,ecodyfi,PenLlyna`r

WoodlandTrust

ProjectsOfficer

Projectadminandsupport.

EcologicalRestorationCoordinator

Linkingrestorationactivities

CommunicationsLead

Communications,branddevt,learning

materials

CommunityOutreachworkers

Localcommunityengagement

MarineConservation

LeadCoordinatingmarine

andestuarineactivities

ProjectImplementation

TaskGroups

ExpertAdvisoryGroup

Inputsexpertiseandadviceonkeyprojectthemes

TaskGroups

TaskGroups

DenotesLineManagement

Denotesotherworkingrelationships

ProjectPartners

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Astheprojectdevelops,differentpartnerswillleadondifferentaspectsbasedontheirexperienceandexpertise.TaskGroupshavebeenestablishedtoleadonspecificthematicaspectsoftheproject.Forexample,aMarineTaskGroupleadbyMarineConservationSociety,WhaleandDolphinConservationandthePenLlyna`rSarnauSACarecoordinatingthemarineelementsoftheproject.AMonitoringTaskGroupwillleadonmonitoringandresearchwithexpertsfromAberystwyth,Bangor,Exeter,LeedsandSussexUniversities.OtherTaskGroupswillfocusonbusiness/economicdevelopment,communityengagement/governanceandspeciesreintroductions.AGrantsPanelwillbeestablishedtoensureaccountabilityandtheeffectivenessofsub-grantingtopartners.

Theprojectwillalsobenefitfromthesupportofeachpartner’swiderorganisationalcapacity,forexamplepracticalexpertiseinecologicalrestoration,jointfundraising,communicationsandcombinedlandacquisitionstrategies.

AnExpertsAdvisoryGroupisalsobeingestablishedtoprovidereferencegroupofpeoplefromacrossarangeofdisciplineswhocancontributetheirknowledgeandexperiencetoguidetheproject.TheEdenProjectandArupEngineeringhaveofferedtechnicalsupportforbusinessdesign.SharedAssetsandConservationCapitalareprovidingadvisorysupportonthedevelopmentofgovernancemodelsandbusinessinvestmentmechanismsforconservation.RewildingEurope,WildEuropeandTompkinsConservationareadvisingoninternationalbestpractice.Wearealsoinvitinganumberofsenior,respectedfiguresfromwithintheWelshpolicyandpoliticalenvironments.

8. Monitoring Plan __________________________________________________________________________________

Seedocumentattached–Wales_8.MonitoringPlan

Otherfuturepartners/landowners

RewildingBritain

ecodyfi

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9. Communications Plan __________________________________________________________________________________

Communication objectives Vision:

S2Sisahighprofiledemonstrationoflargescaleecologicalrestorationinaction,andinspireslandowners,statutorybodies,localcommunitiesandpolicymakerstoembracethisalternativemodelforlanduseandconservation.

CommunicationsOutcomes:

1. S2Sisembracedandsupportedactivelyinthelocalarea,alongwithkeypartnersandtheirsupporter-base

2. Developingnaturebasedenterprisesandiconiclowimpact/highyieldtourismdestinationareincreasinglyrecognisedlocallyandnationally.

3. WelshGovernmentrecognisesandacknowledgesthevalueofS2Sindemonstratinganddeliveringnationalandinternationalpoliciesandcommitmentsandpolicy/legislativemechanismsareinplacewhichsupportdeliveryofS2S’slong-termapproach

CommunicationsObjectives:

• Acommunicationspackageandseriesofapproaches,whichpresenttheelementsofSummittoSea(S2S)inacompelling,balancedandbilingualway,appropriatefortargetaudiencesandwhichinspirestrustandoptimism.

• AcommonbrandandidentityapproachforS2S,appropriateformulti-stakeholderenvironment,andalignedwithhighprofilepartnerbrands,whichcreatesawin-winsituationincommunicationsterms.

• Furtheraudienceanalysis/understanding,andfurthermessagetestingforexternalcommunications;

• Trustedmessengers/champions;keymessages;storiesandimagesthatsupportthevisionofaworkablemodelforconservationandlanduse.

• Digitalandtraditionalmediastrategy(notelighttouchmediainearlyphase)• Establishamulti-stakeholdercommunicationsgrouptoagree:overallapproach;brand;

activities;products,anddojointcommunicationsandmediawork

Target audiences (internal and external) and the makeup of each audience • Primaryaudiences:landowners;farmers;tenantfarmers;localfishers;peoplelivingand

workinginthepilotarea• Secondaryaudiences:Welsh/UKGovernment(policymakers);statutorybodies,andlocal

influencers(councillors;localmediaetc.);staffandsupportersofpartnerorganisations;widerpublicandvisitorstothearea

• Localinfluencerse.g.media,localcouncillors,localentrepreneurs,existinglocalnaturetourismattractionsandevents/conservationinitiativesandlowimpactlocalaccommodation;localecologists/environmentalistsetc.

Aclearunderstandingofkeystakeholdergroups’valuesandpersonalneeds/localchallenges,aswellastheirexistingcommitments/activities,hopesanddesiresforthesurroundingareaisrequiredin

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ordertoengageandstrengthenthetargetgroups’commitmenttocollaborativeworkwithSummittoSea.Audienceanalysisandfurthermessagetestingisrequired.

Thesupporterjourneyofthesekeyaudiencesisillustratedinthefollowingdiagram:

Purpose of the communication for each audience Empoweringandengagingcommunicationswithfarmersandfishers,alongsidethewiderlocalcommunityisintegraltothesuccessof‘SummittoSea’.Communityinvolvementfromtheverybeginningwithpeer-to-peerdesignfromthebottomupacrosstargetaudienceswillplayakeyroleindevelopingthisinitiative,andchampionvoiceswillhavethepotentialtoprofoundlyshiftlocalsupportforthispioneeringrestorationproject.

l Farmers:Brexitprovidesatimelyopportunitytodemonstratealocallyshapedapproachtolandmanagementwherewildlife;localeconomiesandculturethrives

l Fishers:coastalcommunitiesfaceaveryuncertainfuture,SummittoSeacouldbeofUKnationalsignificanceformarinemanagement,aswellaseconomicregeneration.Joinus.

l Residents:localemploymentandthefutureforcommunitiesarehighlyvulnerable,SummittoSeawilldiversifylocaljobsandincomestreams,andcelebrateavaried,livinglandscape,wherefoodproduction;wildlife;tourismandWelshculturethrives

l Partnersandtheirsupporters:byworkingtogetherwecandemonstrateaworkablelivinglandandseascapetoreversethedeclineinplantsandanimals,andrestoretheecologicalfunctionsonwhichwealldepend

l Influencers:ourcommunityisexperiencingincreasingeconomicandculturalimpoverishment,includinginsufficientemploymenttokeepyoungpeopleintheareaandlowincomes,withfarmingandfishingcommunitiesfacinganuncertainfuturepost-Brexit.SummittoSeaoffersanopportunitytochangethis,andpioneerthewayforotherruralcommunitiesacrosstheUK.

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l PolicyMakers/StatutoryBodies:demonstrationofeffectivemechanismsfordeliveryofgovernmentpoliciessuchasWell-beingofFutureGenerationsAct.PotentialforthemodeltobeextendedtootherareasofWales/UK.

l Widerpublic:apositivemessageofhopethatournativeecosystemscanberestoredatalargescaleinawaythatbenefitsbothpeopleandnature.

Key communication messages and the content of the message Thecall:Byworkingtogetherasacommunity,andwithleadershipfromfarmersandfishers,wecancreatewildlife-richzonesthatcomplementexistingfarmingandfishingpractices,andprovideadditionalopportunitiesforpeoplelivingandworkinginthearea.

Toplinemessaging:

• Ourruraleconomy,cultureandwildlifeisfacingaseriousthreat.Let’sbringlifebacktoourcommunities,landandsea!

• Despitesignificanteffortstorestorehabitatsandsecurelocallivelihoods,existingtop-downblanketschemeshavenotbeeneffectivewithfarmingandfishingcommunitieshavinglittlesayinthewaytheymanagethelandandsea.

• SummittoSeaisaflexible,nature-drivenrestorationoflandandseainitiative,withtheexpertiseoffarmersandfishersatitsheart.A10,000haareaoflandand28,400haofseawillcreateanaturallyfunctioningecosystemfromthetopofthehighestmountain,Pumlumon,tothebottomofCardiganBaywherewildlifeisinabundance,whilefarming,fishing,andthewiderlocaleconomyandculturethrives.

Tone:conservative;trustworthy;confident;empowering;respectful;inclusive;optimisticandbalanced

Information sources • Participatoryvideoprocesses:providesaforumforlocalpeopletoexpressandsharetheir

viewsabouttheproject,theirstoriesoftheland/seaandtheiraspirationsforthefuture.• Projectmonitoringandtestinginterventionreports:providesrealdatalinkedtotheS2Sarea

ofchangesbroughtaboutbytheproject• Otherrewildingprojects:trustedvoicesandstoriesfromothernaturebasedenterprises/

naturedrivenrestorationprojectsandcommunitieslivingwithiniconiclowimpacttouristdestinations.

• Researchreports:demonstratingclearbenefitstolocaleconomy,landowners,fishersandresidents,aswellasapproachtokeydependenciesandriskse.g.impactsonlocalinfrastructure.

• Landandmarinemanagementreportsonrestorationofecologicalfunctions.

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Communication milestones and measurements of success

Outcomes Indicators/measures

1.S2Sisembracedandsupportedactivelyinthelocalarea,alongwithkeypartnersandtheirsupporter-base

Reachandengagenumberoffarmers,fishersandlandownersintheprojectarea.Numberoffarmers,fishersandmembersofthelocalcommunityleadersembrace‘SummittoSea’andbecomethemessengersandlocalchampionsforfunctioningecosystemsthatbenefitall.Acommunicationspackageandseriesofproducts/materialsdevelopedanddisseminatede.g.website;descriptivecasestudies/visualstorytelling;leaflets,newsletter,aswellasfilm,community-ledvideoingetc.LocalandWales-widemediaplandeveloped-lighttouchinitiallyleadingtohighprofileacrossUK.No.of:newsclippings;radioandTVappearanceperyear;featuresandopeds;blogsDigitalcommunicationsplandevelopedandactive,withfacebookgroups;linkedingroupplusdigitalengagementstrategyNo.ofcommunitymeetingswithlocalchampionsandvisitorsfromotherEuropeanrewildingprojects(e.g.trustedvoicesoffarmers,localresidents)Communityparticipatorydesignprocessisdemonstratedviaexhibitioninvenueswithaccompanyingpublicmeetingsandparticipatoryvideos/screenings

2.Developingnaturebasedenterprisesandiconiclowimpact/highyieldtourismdestinationareincreasinglyrecognisedlocallyandnationally.

Mappingofexistingenterprisesandnaturebasedactivities/attractionssecuringvisitorstotheareaachievedandcelebratedviavideo/exhibitionCommunityparticipatorydesignprocessisdemonstratedwithphotographyandcommunityvoicevideosscreenedBuildabrandandidentityapproachforS2S,whichengagesexternalandinternalaudience.Demonstratesmulti-stakeholderenvironment,withhighprofilepartnerbrands.MarketingStrategydevelopedanddelivered

4.Policy/legislativemechanismsinplacewhichsupportdeliveryofS2S’slong-termapproach

Organiseexchangevisitstosuccessfulrewildingprojectsinothercountriesforkeyinfluencers(e.g.localdecisionmakers/journalists,Welshcelebrity)

Launchresearchreportonlocaleconomicbenefits,withtoplinekillerfactsummary

Securechampioninfluencerswithpublicstatementsofsupportandface-to-facemeetingswithdecisionmakers

RoundtablepaneldiscussionswithWelshGovernment;WelshTourism;Businessnetworksetc.

Mediaanddigitalengagementstrategyifrequired.Onehighprofilenationalmediamomentperyear.Increasedlikesandfollowersonsocialmedia.

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10. Community Engagement Plan __________________________________________________________________________________

Overthelast18monthstheprojectteamhasopenedadialogueaboutthepotentialoftheSummittoSeaprojectwithawiderangeofstakeholdergroupsandindividuals.Forexample,inJuly2017webroughtawiderangeofstakeholderstogetherforaworkshoptoexplorethepossiblebenefitsandcostsofS2Sandtobegintodevelopasharedvision.Thisworkshopdemonstratedbroadinterestinandsupportfortheproject’svisionandforworkingtogethertocontinuetoshapeitsdesign.Itledtotheestablishmentoftheproject’sSteeringGroup.

Wehavespentthelast12monthsfollowingupwitheachparticipanttoexploremutualareasofinterestandgainfurtherinputintotheproject’sdevelopment.Sixsubsequentpartner/stakeholderworkshopshavebeenheldaspartoftheparticipatory,stakeholder-ledapproachtotheproject.

Oneofthoseworkshopswasspecificallyfocussedonengagingstakeholdersindevelopingtheprojectplansforcommunityengagementandgovernance.Thisbroughttogetherthosewithexperienceofwhatworkslocallyandthosewithexternalexpertisetoco-designalocallyappropriateapproach(seetheendofthissectionforalistofthoseinvolved).Withthisgroupwecarriedoutabroadstakeholder/communityanalysis.Wethenwentontodefinetheprinciplesofourapproach,learningfromwhathasworkedlocally,andtodevelopamoredetailedengagementplanforthefourkeycommunity/stakeholdergroupsincludingitsobjectives,methodologyandtimeline.Thesearedescribedinthefollowingsections.

Analysis of community groups and other stakeholders ThefollowingtablelistsanddescribeslocalstakeholdersaccordingtotheprioritywithwhichS2Sshouldengage.

Stakeholder/community

Description

Highprioritycommunities/stakeholdersLandowning/farmingfamilies

Strongculturalidentity.Concernedaboutandhighlyvulnerabletochangestotheirfuturelivelihoodspost-Brexit.Strongknowledgeoflocalwildlifeandculturalheritage.Opennesstoexploreviableeconomicalternativesthatprovideincomestreamson+off-farm.Importanttounderstandandrespecttherolesofbothwomenandmeninthefamilyeconomy.Therewillbedifferencesinprioritiesandabilitytoengageorcommittolongtermdependingonwhetherlandowning,tenantorcommoner.Mostfarmingfamiliesalsohaveofffarmemployment,contractworkorsomeformofonfarmdiversificationsuchasrenewableenergyorB&Baccommodation.

Youngfarmersgroups Sameasabovebuttendtohavelessinfluenceoverthefarmbusinessmodelthanoldergenerations.Morelikelytohavebeenawaytocollegeand/ortohavetravelledandworkedabroad.Canbringnew/differentideasandaspirationsforfuturerevenuegeneratingopportunities.

Farmerrepresentativegroups

Representandofferspecialistadvicetolocalfarmers.Importantstakeholderforreachingfarmers,ensuringrelevanceofprojectforlocallandownersandgainingwiderinterestandsupportofmembers.

Fishersbodies Representlocalfishersandsea-users.Importantstakeholderforensuringrelevanceofprojectandgainingwiderinterestandsupportofmembers.

DyfiBiosphereReserve/ Otherregional/partnershipinitiativesintheareawithsimilargoals.

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CambrianMountainsInitiative

Importanttoensurethatthereissynergyandcoordination.

CountyCouncils Remitforlocalcommunityengagementandconsultationandfordeliveringonrelevantgovernmentpolicies,e.g.Well-beingofFutureGenerationsAct.

WelshGovernment CriticaltoprovidingasupportivepoliticalenvironmentwhichembedsS2Sinthepoliticallandscapeofmid-Walesandprovidesaframeworkforfinanceanddeliveryofkeyprojectgoals.S2Scanofferapilottodemonstrateaneffectivedeliverymechanismforkeypolicies,e.g.Well-beingofFutureGenerationsAct.

Publicsector CriticaltoprovidingasupportivepolicyenvironmentanddeliverymechanismstoembedS2S.S2Sinturncanhelpprovideapilottodemonstrateeffectivedeliveryofsocial,environmentalandeconomictargets.

Economicdevelopmentorganisations

Focusedonreachingouttothebusinesscommunityandsupportingbusinessdevelopmentinthearea,e.g.ChambersofCommerce

CommunityCouncils Localdecision-makingbodies.CommunityCouncilshavelimitedpowersbutimportanttoinvolvetoboostlocalinvolvementindecision-making.Councillorsareusuallywellknowninthecommunityandcanhelptoreachothersinthecommunity.

Riverfishing/anglingcommunity

PotentialsupportersofS2Sbecauseoftheirinterestinriverhealthandrestoration(e.g.steadyflow,insectlife,fishstocks)

Keyindividualswithinfluence/champions

ImportanttogetonboardrespectedlocalpeopletoactaschampionsandadvocatesforS2Sfromacrosscommunity.

Electedrepresentatives Importanttogettheirsupportastheyareelectedandmandatedbylocalpeople.Canhelpboostsenseoflocalownershiptotheproject.

Welshlanguagegroups Welshculturalidentityisextremelyimportanttotheareaandthesegroupscanhelpensurethattheprojectissensitivetothisandcontributestocelebratingandstrengtheningthisidentity.

Tourismandoutdooractivityfora/providers

TherearemanyexistingtourisminitiativesandproviderswhocouldcontributetowardsandbenefitfromS2Sasadestination

Visitors Thisisadiversegroup–fromlocaldaytripperstointernationaltourists.Itwillbeimportanttounderstandtheirprofileandbehavior–bothcurrentandpotential.RecentworkcollatedbyDyfiBiosphereindicatesthatvisitorstendtocometothearearepeatedly,tendtobeolderandoftenhavefriendsorfamilylivinglocally.Only16%arecomingforoutdooractivitieslikemountainbiking.

Existingcommunitygroups

Therearemanylocalcommunityinitiatives,suchastheClettwrCommunityCafé,thatS2Scouldlinkwithandlearnfrom.

ConservationNGOs Therearemanyland-owningconservationNGOsintheareawhoarealreadyinvolvedinecologicalrestorationactivities.TheyareallactivelyinvolvedintheprojectaspartnersandthroughtheS2SSteeringGroup.

Mediumprioritycommunities/stakeholdersYouthgroups/forums ApartfromYoungFarmersgroupstherearealsomanyoftheusualgroups

forchildrenandteenagerssuchasscoutsandguides,cadets,forestschoolscamp,GwerinyCoed(theWelshversionofWoodcraftFolk)andgroupsconnectedwithvarioussportsincludingcanoeing,sailingandhorseriding.TheDukeofEdinburghAwardsschemeusestheprojectareaforoldergroupsdoingsilverorgoldawardswheretheyundertakelongdistancewalks

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Schools/highereducation/localuniversities

Alleducationprovisionisaroundtheouteredgesoftheprojectareawheretherearelargerpopulationcentres.AberystwythUniversity,withitsInstituteofBiological,Environmental&RuralSciencesandDepartmentofGeography&EarthScienceshasstrongecologicalinterests.Therearefivesecondaryschoolsinthewiderprojectareaand14primaryschoolsaswellaspre-school/playgroups.OneofthehighschoolsandseveralprimaryschoolsareWelshmediumschoolsandsomearebilingual.Therearealsoinformaleducationproviderssuchasforestschools.

Localruralandurbanresidents

Populationcentres,likeschoolsareallaroundtheouteredgeoftheprojectarea.Thereisonemediumsizedtown(Aberystwyth(population18,000),fivemuchsmallertowns(Machynlleth–2,000;Llanidloes3,000;Aberdovey-1,300;Borth–1,400andTywyn–3,250)andupto30villagesandhamlets.Apartfromthesetherestoftheareaissparselypopulatedwithfarms,smallholdingsandcottages.Manyhavelivedinthesameareaforgenerations,especiallyamongstthefarmingcommunities.Therearealsoasignificantnumberwhohavemovedintotheareaeitherwithfamiliesforworkortoretire.Mosthaveastrongaffinityfortheirimmediateenvironmentandastrongconcernfortheresilienceofthelocaleconomyandsociety.TheWesternhalfoftheprojectareahasamuchhigherpercentageofWelshspeakersthantheEasternpartanditisstrongestinthefarmingcommunitiesacrossthearea.

Well-being/NHS Thereisincreasinginterestinhealth/socialprescribinglinkedtothenaturalenvironmentprovidinganopportunityforS2S,andalsoinencouraginggreateruseofthenaturalenvironmentbythosenotcurrentlyinthehealth/illnesscaresystem.Theseveralprovidersofoutdoorwell-beingservicesarelooselygroupedtogetherwithNHSandotherprofessionalsintheDyfiBiosphereNatureBasedHealthNetwork.

Utility/water/energycompanies

WelshWaterarethemostsignificant,withatreatmentworksatBont-gochandacomplexdistributionsystem.AlsopresentareSevernTrent,SSE,Statkraft(Hydropower)andvariouswindfarmcompanies.WelshWaterandStatkraftownlandandwaterresourcesinthearea.

Nature/wildlife/heritagegroupsandenthusiasts

RSPBandWildlifeTrustshavevolunteeringgroups,andthereisaConservationCorpsatAberystwythUniversity.Therearemanyenthusiasts,andsomeleadwalksetcatCaffiCletwrinTre’rDdol.Thisgroupismainlylikelytobepositiveabouttheprojectandmaybeabletocontributethroughvolunteeringinvariousaspectsoftheproject.

Hunters/foxhuntinggroups

Foxhuntingintheareaismainlydonebyfarmersonfootorinvehicleswithjointlymanagedpacksofhoundsorwithlightsandgunsatnightsorelationshipswiththemwillbeprimarilythroughthefarmingsector.Therearesomepheasantandpartridgeshootsincludingonelargeoneandagroupontheestuarythatshootgeeseandduckswithvoluntarycontrols.Thereisn’tgenerallyrecreationalhuntingofwildlife.

Lowerprioritycommunities/stakeholdersSecondhomeowners Therearealotofsmallareasoflandlinkedtosecondhomesintheareaso

thereissomepotentialforengagingownerstoundertakerestorationactivitiesontheirland.

Transportsector Thisgroupcouldbenefitsignificantlyfromincreasedtourisminthearea.

Remotesupporters ThesearepeoplewhomighthaveahugeinterestintheS2Svisionandvaluesandwanttosupportiteveniftheyneverintendtovisit.

Objectives

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AvisionofthescaleofSummittoSearequiresacollectiveeffortbetweenlandowners,communities,fishers,publicbodies,NGOs,businesses,relevantexpertsandawiderangeofthestakeholdersidentified.Fortheprojecttosucceeditisessentialthatthereisbuyinfromandownershipbylocalpeople–stewardsofthelandandsea,aswellasthewidercommunity–andthattheyhelpshapetheproject’svisionandvaluesaswellashavinganon-goingroleindecision-making.Alocally-ledS2SPartnershipwillinitiallymanagetheproject.Bytheendofthefirst5yearsthiswillbesetupasalegalentitywhichhaseffectivegovernancemechanisms,allowsrevenueandotherbenefitstobesharedandcanbeself-sustaininginthelong-term.

Ouroverallobjectiveforcommunityengagementistoseelocalcommunitiesandthewiderpublicactivelyengagedininforming,shaping,monitoringandlearningaboutS2S.Theoverallfocusforthefirst5yearswillbetosee:

• Participatorymechanismsinplaceforlocalpeopletoinputtheirknowledge,viewsandconcernstoengageinshapingtheproject

• Increasedknowledge,awarenessandunderstandingofthecultural/naturalheritageoftheareaandofS2S’scollectivevisionforthefuture.

• Projectstoengagelocalpeople,schools,communitiesandculturalgroupsactivelyandvolunteerintheproject.

• Increasedaccesstoexperiencesofnatureandwildlifethatimprovehealthandwell-being

Community engagement plan Thecoreprinciplesofourapproach,learningfromwhatworksanddoesn’tworklocally,are:

• Takeagradualandpersonal“teaandcake”approachtobuildingtrust.Acceptthatthistakestimeandrequiresanactivelocalpresence.

• Explorewhatpeoplewantthefuturetolookliketobuildupavisionfortheareabasedonsharedvaluesthatbenefitsbothpeopleandnature

• Don’tpresenta‘donedeal’butdoprovideaclearpropositionandprovidelocallyappropriateandflexibleincentivesoverthelong-term

• Ensurethattheapproachisrespectfuloflocalculturalheritageandisbi-lingualinWelshandEnglishusingthelocaldialect

• Dealopenlyandtransparentlywithproblemsandconflictsorthatariseandfindmutuallyagreeablesolutions.

• Workwithandlearnfromotherlocal/regionalinitiativesandexpertisewhereverpossible.

FocusedonfourkeystakeholdergroupsthemethodologyandtimelineofactivitiesofthecommunityengagementplanaredescribedintheTable:CommunityEngagementPlanthatfollows.Someaspectsofthisplanwillneedfurtherdevelopmentandwillbeextendedtootherstakeholdergroupsastheprojectdevelops.

Responsibilities OverallresponsibilityforcoordinatingcommunityengagementacrosstheS2SPartnershipwillliewiththeS2Steam.CommunityOutreachWorker/swillberecruitedwiththespecificpurposeofbuildingrelationshipsandtrustinthecommunityandimplementingtheengagementplan.Wewillalsoworkwithotherlocalinitiatives,suchastheDyfiBiospherePartnership,CambrianMountainsInitiativeandtourismfora,toensurethatthereactivecollaborationandsynergywiththeirwork.Wewillalsoengagelocalexpertisewhereverpossibleandbuildlocalcapacitytoprovidealastingskillsbase.TheworkwithbecoordinatedthroughaCommunityEngagementTaskGroupsothatthedifferentcontributionsandexpertisecanbecoordinatedeffectively.

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Thosewithspecificresponsibilitiesinclude:S2SProgrammeManager Strategicoversightandcoordinationwithother

elementsofS2SprojectS2SCommunityOutreachWorker/s Buildingrelationshipsandtrustinthecommunity,

partnershipcoordinationandimplementingthecommunityengagementplan.

ProjectPartners Partnersallhavevaluableexperienceofcommunityengagement.EachwillbeinvolvedthroughtheS2SSteeringGroupandwillinputspecificexperienceastheplansdevelop.

MarineConservationSociety LeadonuseoftheCommunityVoiceMethodologyPenLlŷna’rSarnauSACOfficer Leadoncommunityoutreachactivitieswithsea-

usersInsightShare Leadonparticipatoryvideotechniquesandtraining.SharedAssets AdvisorysupportongovernancemechanismsConservationCapital Advisorysupportongovernanceandcommunity

benefitsharingmechanisms.

Inadditionthosewhohavehadanactiveinvolvementinshapingthecommunityengagementplan(e.g.participatinginthedesignworkshop)andanon-goingroleinitsimplementationinclude:

AliciaLeow-Dyke(WelshBeaverProjectOfficer,RadnorshireWildlifeTrust);AlisonHargrave(PenLlŷna’rSarnauSACOfficer);AndyRowland(Ecodyfi);ArwelJones(Regionaldevelopmentconsultant)BruceStanley(Localinnovationcoach);DavidBavin(VincentWildlifeTrust);EmyrDavies(FarmersUnionforWales);SueLing(PowysCountyCouncil);LindaAshton(NationalResourcesWales);EstherWakeling(CambrianMountainsInitiative);FionaWalker(RSPB);HannahGardiner(SharedAssets);HuwDenman(independentforester);IoloApGwynn(DyfiBiospherePartnership,Chair);JanePowell(DyfiBiosphere–education,peopleandfoodprogramme);KimWilliams(WildlifeTrusts);NeilBirnieandGlenJeffries(ConservationCapital);PeterRichardson(MarineConservationSociety);SaraAsadullah(InsightShare);SophieWynne-Jones(WWLFandBangorUniversity);

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Table: Community Engagement Plan KeyCommunity/StakeholderGroup

MethodsofEngagementInitialcontact(first6months) Activeparticipation(years1-3) On-goingengagement(years3-5)

Forallgroups Develop simple, compelling narrative for S2S for early messaging – building on strong cultural identity and local stories, bi-lingually in Welsh and English

Establish website, facebook pages and other social media channels to act as portals for regularly sharing information as the project develops

Ensure on-going opportunities for local people to feed in ideas and concerns are built into S2S governance mechanisms.

Farmers/landowners

Raise awareness and share information about S2S through farming union newsletters. Continue to hold one-to-one on farm conversations to introduce S2S, build consensus and discuss any dissonances Start to work with specific groups (e.g. young farmers) to explore and record their perspectives on key themes of S2S through participatory video

Develop clear business case to present S2S income generating opportunities Meet with interested landowners and support the development of on-farm business plans Build trust through frequent, consistent, accessible contact between farmers/landowners + S2S outreach workers

Extend the participatory video project for local groups to explore & express their connection with the land, producing 3 short films, and a screening event

Support farm clusters to enable local farmers to work collectively towards an agreed vision.

Actively involve local project ‘champions’ in on-going engagement activities Access long term business development support and training Ensure farmers + representative groups have strong voice within S2S governance mechanisms, e.g. feeding their views in through farmer clusters.

Fishers/sea-users–marineandfreshwater

Build on initial one-to-one meetings with sea-users and their representative bodies to discuss S2S and develop relationships

Carry out Community Voice Method with sea-users to explore shared values and inspire deeper engagement.

Extend the use of the CVM approach to a freshwater river catchment.

Develop on-going sea-user engagement through agreeing co-management of marine area to support seabed recovery.

Schools,communitygroups,residents

Raise awareness of project through multiple local channels. Develop links with schools, schools + cultural outreach programmes, community groups to co-develop engagement activities.

Start to document and share people’s stories and hopes for the area and its wildlife, e.g.

Develop on-going dialogue with and through community councils as project develops. Engage with people in creative industries locally to develop events/materials to help tell the story.

Develop schools/universities outreach projects/education packs and engage them in

Provide training and capacity building in participatory video techniques to leave a lasting skills base Work to boost on-going local engagement in decision-making, e.g. through community councils. Establish on-going events, e.g. annual

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videos

Develop links with community councils and other representative bodies

project activities, e.g. citizen’s science.

Engage wider communities in specific campaigns linked to project, e.g. litter picking/beach cleaning, to raise awareness and sense of local ownership. Include local groups as part of participatory video project (see above)

Provide training for up to 12 local people in participatory video facilitation.

S2S festival, to continue people’s involvement

Tourismprovidersandtourists

Develop suitable name/branding that resonates and inspires both locally and nationally/internationally in English and Welsh Use existing channels of communications - e.g. tourism fora – to share information about S2S

Build links with tourism organisations and providers

Work with tourism fora and providers to develop coordinated destination and infrastructure development planning Ensure that tourism offer both informs and inspires local and national/ international tourists about the S2S vision and narrative

Develop and agree a tourism charter linked to the vision and values

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11. Capacity development __________________________________________________________________________________

TheSummittoSeateamisyettobefullyestablishedandthereforeitisdifficulttodefinepriorityareasforcapacitydevelopmentatthisstage.Oncetheteamisinplaceaskillsauditwillbecarriedoutandkeycapacitydevelopmentareasdefined.TheteamcommitstoproducingacapacitydevelopmentplanandwillsubmitthistoELPwithinthefirst3monthsoftheproject’sstartdate.

12. Business plan for social enterprise __________________________________________________________________________________

Overview of business development process Thedevelopmentofaclearbusinessmodel/caseforanature-basedeconomywhichprovidesstablerevenueopportunitiescomparedwiththecurrentsituationandfuturealternativesisakeyelementoftheSummittoSeaproject.ToscopethefeasibilityofthisapproachS2ScommissionedConservationCapitaltocarryoutaninitialassessmentofthepotentialforlandownersandcommunitiestotransitiontoanew,growing,morestable,lesssubsidy-reliantnature-basedeconomythatstillretainsagricultureandforestryatitscore.Itsinitialassessment,wasthat,foragriculturallandownersinparticular,anature-basedeconomy‘wouldprovideimprovedandstablerevenueopportunities’19.Thiswouldbebasedonthefollowingmarketelements:

1. Foodandnaturalproducts–includinghighnaturevaluelivestockproduction,harvestingandcommercialisingnaturalproducts

2. Tourism–linkedtoaniconic,exciting,outdoorstourismregionaldestinationwithintegratedmarketingandbusinessplanningacrossthelandandseascape.

3. Forestry-underalternativesilviculturalpracticessuchasirregularforestmanagement(includingcontinuouscoverforestry(CCF)andLowImpactSilviculturalSystems)

4. Paymentsforpublicgoods/ecosystemservices(PES)-tocapturethebenefitsderivedfromenvironmentalservicesandchannelthemtonaturalresourcesmanagerswhogeneratetheseservices

Basedonthisinitialassessmentwehaveheldanumberofmeetingsandworkshopstofurthertestoutwhether1)thereisagenuinebusinesscasefora'nature-based'economyand2)thereislocalinterestinexploringitasaviableland/seamanagementalternative.Thesehaveincluded:

• SitevisitwithEdenProject,TYFGroup,PukkaTeasplusNaturalResourcesWalesandaninterestedlocalfarmertodiscussthebusinesspotentialofSummittoSea.

• WorkshophostedbyArupwithstafffromacrosstheirdisciplinaryteamstodiscussthebusiness/economicmodel

• DesignWorkshopwithlocalpartners/stakeholderstodevelopanddesignthebusinessplanningprocessforSummittoSeaincludingCambrianMountainsInitiative,Farmer’s

19SeeSection2:TheoryofChangeformoredetailonthisassessment

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UnionforWales,BusinessWales,NaturalResourcesWales,CountyCouncil,ADASandConservationCapital20

ItwasgenerallyagreedthatBrexitislikelytohaveasignificantnegativeimpactonlocallivelihoods–particularlyinrelationtothefutureoffarmsubsidiesandsheepproductionifthereisnoaccesstothesinglemarket.Futurefarmsubsidiesarehighlylikelytobeorientatedtowardstheprovisionofpublicgoods21.Theareaisalsofacingsignificantlocalgovernmentcuts(potentiallyaffectingthe26%ofthepopulationemployedbylocalgovernment),centralisationofservicesoftentobiggercentresoutsideoftheareaandtheout-migrationofyoungpeopletofindwork.Itwasalsoagreedthattheareahasamazingnaturalandculturalassetsofwhichlocalpeoplearerightlyproud.Theyhavestronglocalknowledgeofthewildlifeandculturaltraditions.

Withinthiscontexttherewasbroadsupportforexploringpotentialscenariosforalargelynature-basedeconomywherethiscouldprovidediverse,resilient,alternativelivelihoodsthatsupportlocalcommunitiesandculture.Participantshighlightedanumberofkeyfactorsinitssuccess:

1. Localownership–bybuildingasharedvisionthatrespectslocalvaluesandaspirationsandadvocatesforlocallyappropriatesolutions.

2. Strongbrand/narrative–basedonaclearvaluespropositionthatblendslocalculturalidentity/languagewithasuggestionoffuturethat‘remainstobemade’inawaythatexcitesandinspirespeoplebeyondtheS2Sarea.

3. Collaboration–bydovetailingwithexistinggovernmentandprivatesectorinitiatives,partnershipsandbusinesseswhilstbringinginnewenterprise/investmentpotential.

Itwasagreedthatthenextstagewillbetocarryoutfullfeasibilitystudiesandmarketresearchtoexploredifferentscenarioslinkedtothefourmarketelementsidentified.Someofthequestionsidentifiedbyparticipantsinthedesignprocessthatthesestudieswillneedtoanswerare:

• Whatisthepotentialtoincreaseexistingincomestreamsandgeneratenewones?• Whatisthepotentialtodeveloplocalmarkets?Whatarewesellingandtowhom?• Howmuchandwhattypeoftourismisdesirable?Howwillvisitorsbemaintainedthrough

theyear?• Howtoensurethebusinessmodelsupportsflourishingnatureandwildlife?• Whatcanwelearnfromexistingandpastinitiativeslocally?• HowwilltheS2Sentitypayforitselfafter5yearstoensuresustainability?Howcanitadd

valuetoindividualbusinessese.g.premiumprices,routestomarket?Whatmechanismswillbeneededforbusinessestoeconomicallycollaborate?

• Whatskillsandcapacitieswilllocalbusinessesneedtoengageinandbenefitfromthis?• Howcanjobsbecreatedforyoungpeopletostayinthearea?• Willtherebeconflictsbetweendifferentincomestreamsandactivities?Howwillthesebe

handled?• HowmanypeoplemightbenefiteconomicallyandinwhatwaysthroughS2Sandits

multipliereffect?

InthefollowingsectionwedescribethebusinessdesignandplanningprocessthatS2Swilluse.

20Fulllistofparticipants:CateBarrow(ADAS);AdamThorogood(WoodlandTrust);RebeccaWrigley(RewildingBritain);HannahScrase(SummittoSea);DafyddWynMorgan(CambrianMountainsInitiative);NeilBirnieandGlenJeffries(ConservationCapital);ArwelJones(Regionaldevelopmentconsultant);BruceStanley(facilitator);NickFenton(FarmersUnionforWales);EmyrDavies(FarmersUnionforWales);RowanJones(BusinessWales);WendyAbel(MidandNorthWalesDestinationNetwork);AndyRowland(ecodyfi);GwenfairOwen(CeredigionCountyCouncil);GregJones(NRW)21ThisisexploredfurtherinSection2:TheoryofChange

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S2S Business design and planning process AsmallBusinessDesignTeamisbeingestablishedledbytheSummittoSeaManagementTeamwithlocalpartnersandadvisorysupportfromexternalexpertise,primarilyConservationCapitalandEdenProjectplusspecificsectoralexpertise.

Businessfeasibilityanddesign(years1and2):

• Starttodevelopacohesivenarrativethread/identityforS2Sthatintegrateslocalvaluesandaspirationswithastrongvisionforecologicalrestorationandeconomicrenewalonlandandsea(incoordinationwithparticipatorycommunityengagementactivities).

• Workwithexistinglocalandregionalenterprisesandinitiativestodevelopsynergies,explorehowS2Scanaddvalueandbuildcollaborationaroundthedevelopmentanddeliveryoftheproject.

• CarryoutdetailedfeasibilitystudiesandmarketanalysesforallrelevanteconomicsectorsforscenarioslinkedtotheS2Svisionandprojectoutcomes–analysinglocal,regionaland(whereappropriate)national/internationalmarketcontexts.

• ForforestrysectorworkwithNaturalResourcesWalestocommissionanindependentstudytodeterminescenariosandfeasibilityforforestmanagementthatdeliversthegreatestoverallbenefitsforWelshGovernmentpolicydeliveryandforthepeopleofWales.TheindicationfromNRWisthatradicalchangetoforestmanagementispossibleontheirestateiftheevidenceistheretosupportit.

• Developanoverallbusinesscaseor‘masterplan’ofactivitieslinkedtotheS2Svisioninclosecollaborationwithprojectpartnersandkeystakeholders.ThiswillincludetheenterprisedrivenecologicalandconservationoutcomesfortheprojectandconceptdesignsforPhase1infrastructure.

• StarttodevelopaS2Sdestinationbrandandassociatedmarketingstrategy.

Businessdevelopmentsupportandfinancing(years2to5):

• Supportdevelopmentoffarmbusinessplanswithinterestedlandownerslinkedtonature-basedenterprisesandworkingwithexistinginitiatives,e.g.Farmer’sUnions,MenteraBusnes,BusinessWales,farmer‘clusters’etc.

• WorkwithNaturalResourcesWalesinresponsetoforestmanagementstudytowardsimplementingmodelwhichprovidesbiodiversityandhabitatconnectivityforlandscapeandrecreationbenefitsaswellascontinuingtoproducecommercialtimberunderlowerimpactsilviculturalsystems.

• PresentbusinesscasetoWelshGovernmenttosupportapilotschemeforagroupcontractfordeliveryofpublicgoodsaspartoftheirpost-BrexitagriculturalsupportpackagefortheareaandworkwithMontgomeryshireWildlifeTrustandADAStofurtherdevelopthisandintegrateitwiththelocalcorporatePESschemetheyaredeveloping.

• DefineagovernanceplanwhichincludesallaspectsofcommunitybenefitsharingandrevenuegenerationforthecoreSummittoSeaproject.

• BuildfinancialbusinessplanstodevelopexistingandanynewenterpriseslinkedtoS2Svision,ensuringthatecologicaloutcomesarefullyincorporated.Identifyandengagewithlocal,regional,nationalandinternationalentrepreneurstodeveloptheseenterprises.Workwiththeidentifiedentrepreneurstodeterminethescaleandtype(s)offinancerequiredtodeveloptheirenterprises-includinggrantfinanceandallformsofrelevantenvironmental/socialimpactdrivencommercialfinance.

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• Identifyanddesignsynergiesbetweenindividualenterprisesinordertoensurethegreatestpossiblecollectiveimpactat‘destination’and‘brand’level.Includingensuringa‘premium’gainedthroughassociationwithS2Sandlocalprocurementoflocalgoodsandservices.

• Identifyandengagewithavarietyofinvestors/financierstoexploretheirinterestinfinancingtheidentifiedenterprisesandtohelpingtofinancealoanfund.

• Linkwithlocalprovidersofskillsdevelopmentandtrainingprogrammestoensurethatlocalcapacityisbuiltlinkedtojobscreatedthroughtheprojectanditsmultipliereffect.

• Mentorandsupportentrepreneurstoensurethattheirenterprisessuccessfullygenerateconservation,economicandsocialoutcomes.

Risks and Assumptions Thereare,asyet,noprecedentsforanature-basedeconomyatthisscaleinWales.Wehavecarriedoutaninitialassessmentofitspotentialandtestedthebusiness/economicmodelproposedwithrelevantlocalandexternalexpertise.However,therearestillinherentriskswithtakingapioneeringapproachofthiskind.Theserisks,andtheriskreductionstrategies,areidentifiedindetailinSection18:RiskAssessmentunderOutcome2:Nature-basedeconomy.

13. Re-introductions and translocation __________________________________________________________________________________

TheSummittoSea(O’rMynyddi’rMôr)projectaimstorestoreanareaoflandandseacentredonthenorthernCambrianMountainsregionofMid-Walesatasufficientscaletoallownaturalprocessestorestoreandsustainadiversifiednature-basedeconomy.Partofthisprojectseekstofacilitatetheexpansionofnativespeciespopulationsaswellasplansforthereintroductionofanumberofkeymissingspecieswherethereisstronglocalsupportandafullassessmentoffeasibility.

Thereintroductionofspeciestoanareawheretheyhavebeenextirpated,orthereinforcementofspeciesthatarestillpresentbutgeneticallythreatenedduetolowpopulationnumbers,requiresathoroughecologicalassessmentfollowingtheIUCNGuidelines.Aforumhasbeeninitiatedtoshareexpertise,co-ordinateconsultationsandpeerreviewproposalstoensurethatallprojectpartnersproposingtocarryoutspeciesrestorationarefollowingthesame,approvedprotocolsandthatIUCNguidelinesarebeingadheredto.InadditiontopartnersworkingonbringingbackspeciesontheirownsitestheforumwillbesupportedbyTheVincentWildlifeTrustastechnicalspecialists.

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14. Land purchase __________________________________________________________________________________

TheoverallframeworkforSummittoSea’slandacquisitionstrategyisasfollows:

Existing land ownership by Summit to Sea partners in the area Thereareapproximately5,300haoflandrelevanttotheprojectandownedbyorganisationalpartners22.Thisismadeupof1,287haownedbyNGOpartnersandapproximately4,000haofrelevantlandownedbyNRW.Inadditiontothisthereapproximatelyis1,300haownedbyinterestedprivateindividualsandanother300haundernegotiation.

Additional land needed to reach target of 10,000ha under restoration Approximatelyanother5,000hawillneedtobebroughtintotheprojectwithin5years.Thereareapproximately60,000haintheprojectareaintotalandmostofitisGrade4or5(pooragriculturalland)orforestryandthisiswheretheprojectwillfocusitseffortswhereitwillhaveleastimpactonfoodproduction.ThereissomeGrade3BlandtowardsthecoastandaverysmallamountofGrade3Alandandthiswillnotbetargetedunlessinexceptionalcasesasmallareaiscriticalforconnectivitybetweensites.

Outline strategy for land purchase Wewillseektoworkwithexistinglandownersinmostcasesbutwedoanticipatethatsomeparticularlystrategiclandpurchaseswillbeanimportantpartoftheproject.Havingseveralpartnerswhoownlandwithintheprojectareaismorefeasibleandpoliticallyacceptablethanasingleentitywhichaimstobuyuplargeareastocreateasingleholding.However,wewillneedtoensurethattherearestronggovernanceanddecision-makingmechanismsbetweenparticipatinglandownersaswellasmechanismstosecureconservationbenefitsinthelongterm.

SummittoSeawillintimeestablishalegalentitywhichcanundertakepropertytransactionsandholdlandtitlesbutwealsoanticipateinitiallandpurchasesbeingmadeby,andtitlesheldby,projectpartners.Insomecasespartnersmaybenegotiatingwithneighbouringlandownerstoacquirespecificparcelsoflandoffmarketinordertoconnectuporenlargetheirexistingholdings.Inothercasesaparceloflandofinteresttotheprojectmaycomeontotheopenmarket.Inbothcaseswewillconsiderthequestionslistedattheendofthissectiontoguideadecisiononlandacquisition.

Untilalong-termarrangementismadethepreferredoptionwillbeforaprojectpartnerstotakeonthetitleandmanagementofanynewsites.Incaseswherethisisnotpossibletheprojectmaytrytoidentifysympatheticprivatethirdpartiestopurchaselandparcels.Wewillexploretheuseofcurrentandfuturelegislationtosupportconservationcovenantsorotherarrangementstoworkwithlandownerstosecureconservationbenefitsinthelongterm.

Prioritywillbegiventolandwhichis:agriculturalgrade4or5ornon-agricultural;whichconnectsorcontributestoconnectingexistingpartnerownedlandorexpandsacorearea;whichhasbeenonthemarketforsometimeatareasonableprice(evidencethatwearenotcompetingwithlocal22NRWownover9,000haintheprojectareaincluding2000hawhichcouldpotentiallybepartofacoreareaandanother2,000whichcouldpotentiallybepartofabufferzone,muchoftherestiscommercialforestryplantationsandnotlikelytobepartoftheproject.RSPBhavefourparcelsoflandtotalling850HaacresallclosetogetheraroundYnysHirreserve.MontgomeryshireWildlifeTrusthavetworeserves(GlaslynandCorsDyfi)totalling247hectares.WildlifeTrustsSouthandWestWaleshaveonewoodlandreserveCoedClettwr16.4Ha.TheWalesWildLandFoundationandWoodlandTrusthaveoneparcelofland(CefnCochwhichis350acres).TheWoodlandTrusthavetwoothersitestotalling33Ha.

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farmers);whereacquiringthesiteisanopportunitytorestoreorprotecthabitatwhichisnotadequatelyprotectedbylegislationandcommonpractice(i.e.restorationorlongtermprotectionisunlikelyunlessthelandisacquired);whereapartnercantakeonanysitemanagementorrestorationrequiredandwheretheanswerstotheguidingquestionsbelowdon’tthrowupmajorconcerns.

Land purchase decisions – guiding questions: • Isitgoodagriculturalland(Grade1-3B)?Aretherelocalfarmerstryingtobuyit?Ifyes–isit

criticalforthesuccessoftheproject?• Whoisaffectedbythepurchase?Arethereanydefactoordejureuserrightsconnectedtothe

purchasedsite(includingrightsofway)whichareaffected?• Whowillholdtheland/rightstitle?Isthepartnerproposingthepurchaseinapositionto

purchaseandmanagethesiteforconservationpurposesinthelong-term?Howisthetitleholdergoverned?Howwilldecisionsbemadeonfutureuseofthesiteanditsresources?

• Willanyconditionsbeattachedtothesitetoensureitsuseforconservationpurposesinperpetuity?

• Howareanyneighboursaffectedbythepurchaseortransferofrights?• Doespurchaseofthesitebringanyobligations?Arethereanycovenantsattachedtothesite?• Howwillthecostsoflandmanagementandprotectionbemetlong-term?• Doesthepurchasepricerepresentgoodvalue?• Isthislikelytobebestuseofavailableacquisitionfunds?• Isthepartnerbringingmatchfundingtothepurchaseorcanthefundsbeusedtoleverage

additionalfundingforthissite?

15. Harmonisation and scaling-up __________________________________________________________________________________

Harmonisation TheSummittoSeaprojectisthefirstofitsscaleandscopeinWalesandtheUK.However,therearesimilarbutsmallerecologicalrestorationprojectswithintheprojectareaandalsoparallellandscape-scaleprojectsoperatinginMid-WaleswhichoverlapwiththeSummittoSeaprojectboundaries.AtthecoreoftheSummittoseaprojectisawilltocollaboratewithexistingprojectsandinitiatives,toworktogethertostrengthenandmultiplytheimpactsofworkthatisalreadytakingplace.Themainforumforthiscollaborativeapproachhasbeentheproject’sSteeringGroup,madeupofrepresentativesfromorganisationsalreadycarryingoutsimilarwork.SteeringGroupmeetingsandprojectpartnerworkshopsarealreadyfacilitatingcollaborationbetweenexistinginitiativesworkingonecologicalrestorationandruraldevelopment.TheS2Sprojectaimstocreateamultipliereffectbybringingsmaller,isolatedprojectstogethertofacilitateagreaterpartnership.

AsaRewildingBritainledproject,S2SisoneofaseriesofprojectsthatareplannedfortheBritishIsles,includingparallelprojectsinEnglandandScotland.TheboardofRewildingBritainarewellconnectedwithotherlandscapescalerestorationandrewildingprojectsacrosstheUKandEuropeandarecommittedtobringinglearningandideasfromthesetosupportthedevelopmentofS2S.

MontgomeryshireWildlifeTrust–PumlumonProject

ThePumlumonprojectrunbytheMontgomeryshireWildlifeTrustalsoaimstorestoretheuplandlandscapeofMidWalesinthesameareaastheSummittoSeaprojectbutnotextendingasfaras

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thecoastandnotincludingthemarineelement.MontgomeryWildlifeTrustisaprojectpartnerinSummittoSeaandisworkingcloselywiththeprojectteamtofeedintoandsupporttheproject’saims.TheelementsofthePumlumonproject:torestorepeatlands,reconnecthabitats,storefloodwater,restoringwildlife,changinggrazingpatterns,recreatinghabitats,developinggreentourismandinvolvingcommunitiesareallsharedwiththeprojectaimsofsummittosea.MontgomeryshireWildlifeTrusthasbeeninvolvedinprojectdesignintheearlystagesoftheSummittoSeaprojectandinthisinvolvementfacilitatesharmonisationbetweenthetwoprojects.InparticularwearecollaboratingonengagementwithfarmersandonapublicandprivatesectorPaymentforEcosystemServicesapproach.

CambrianMountainsInitiative

TheCambrianMountainsInitiativeworkstoenablesustainableruraldevelopmentwithinthegeographicalareaoftheCambrianMountains.Overtheyearstheorganisationhasestablishedstrongpartnershipswithfarmingcommunitiesandtheprivatesector,fosteringcollaborationbetweenthesestakeholdersparticularlyinthedevelopmentofbrandingandmarketingforfarmproductssuchasmeatandwool.CurrentlytheCMIareworkingonafeasibilitystudyforestablishingsomethingakintoaFrenchstyle“parquenaturelle”acrosstheCambrianMountains.Thisprojectwillcreateaframeworkforprotectingandpromotingnaturalresources,ruralcommunitiesandculturalheritagebysupportingsustainablelanduseunderpinnedbynoveleconomicdevelopment.ThereisalotofoverlapherewithS2S’saimtodevelopanature-basedeconomyandplentyofpotentialforthetwoprojectstoworkinunisontosupportruraldevelopmentinuplandfarmingcommunities.WemeetfrequentlywiththeCMIteamandattendeachother’sworkshopswhereverpossible.

DyfiBiosphere

TheDyfiValleyandAberystwythareaisdesignatedasaUNESCOBiosphereReserve.Thismeansthat840squarekilometresoflandandseaarebroughttogetherunderthevisionforunitingthenaturalenvironmentandthecommunitieswholiveandworkwithinit.TheDyfiBiospherehasaimstosupportnatureconservation,sustainableeconomicdevelopmentandastrongbi-lingualculture,allofwhichresonatewiththeobjectivesoftheS2Sproject.However,wherethereisoverlap,thereisalsopotentialforconfusionandduplicationwithbothinitiativesaimingtoworkwiththefarmersandfishersinthearea.Sinceourstage2application,ecodyfi,thelocalregenerationorganisationsupportingtheDyfiBiosphereanditsmaindeliverypartner,hascomeonboardasaprojectpartnerwithastrongintentiontocollaborate.Maintainingacloseworkingrelationshipbetweenthetwoprojectswillestablishopportunitiesforharmonisingourinterventionsandworkingcollaboratively.

CambrianWildwood

CambrianWildwoodisaprojectrunbytheWalesWildLandFoundationandfocusesona140hectaresitecalledBwlchCoroginthenorthernCambrianMountains.TheaimoftheprojectistouserewildingprinciplestorestoretheuplandhabitatcurrentlydominatedbyPurplemoorgrass.ThiswillbedonebyblockingdrainagegripsinordertoallowwetterareastoreverttoblanketbogandalsotointroducelightgrazingbyKonikhorseswhichwillbreakuptheswardofMolinia,allowingheathermoorlandtore-establish.Treeplantingwillprovideanativeseedsource,creatingamosaicofbog,moorandwoodland.Thereareplanstoacquiremorelandtoextendtheareaoftheprojectandalsotoworkwithneighbouringlandownerstolinkupalargerareaofhabitat.TheseaimsandambitionsarethesameasthoseofS2Sdifferingexceptthatthattheyarecurrentlyfocusedonaspecificsiteanddon’thaveaneconomicdevelopmentremit.S2SwillworkatalargerscalecreatinglinksbetweenCambrianWildwoodlandandthatownedbyotherpartners.ThesuccessofCambrianWildwoodwillprovideausefulcasestudythatcouldsupporttherecruitmentofmoresitesandpartnersacrosstheS2Sprojectarea.WalesWildLandFoundationareprojectpartners.

PenLlŷna’rSarnauSpecialAreaofConservation(SAC)

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TheS2SprojectwillenablethesouthwardextensionofprojectsthatarecurrentlytakingplaceinthenorthernpartofthemarineSAC.TheSACsRelevantAuthoritiesGroupisaworkinggroupoforganisationswhoallhaveastakeinthemanagementoftheSAC,thisprovidesagoodcollaborativeforumthroughwhichtoguidethedevelopmentofthemarineelementsoftheSummittoSeaprojectandthewayinwhichtheproject’sinterventionscancomplementworkalreadytakingplaceinthearea.TheSACofficerwillalsoprovideadedicatedindividualwhocancollaboratewiththeS2Sprojectteamtoensureharmonisation.FisheriesLocalActionGroupsarealreadyasuccessfulforumforstakeholderengagementandwillbeusedwithinS2Stoworkwithfisherandcoastalcommunitiesintheprojectarea.

Policy Relevance/Integration TheS2SprojecthasbeendevelopedinthecontextoftheUKandWalesleavingtheEuropeanUnionandtheongoingpoliticaluncertaintysurroundinghowBrexitistobeimplemented.WhatwecancountonisthattherewillbeadecouplingfromtheCommonAgriculturalPolicy,whichhasprovidedtheframeworkforlandmanagementintheUKsinceitsinception55yearsago,andthattherewillbeuncertaintyaboutthelong-termfutureofotherEUenvironmentallegislationsuchastheHabitatsDirective.TheresultofthisuncertaintyataUKlevelwillbearelianceonoverarchinginternationalenvironmentalagreementstodrivedomesticconservationactionsuchastheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(CBD).ForWalesthisforegroundstheimportanceofrecentlegislationfocusingonecosystemresilienceandsustainabilitysuchastheEnvironmentActandWell-beingofFutureGenerationsAct.TheserecentpolicydevelopmentsinWalesmeanthataprojectofthescopeandscaleofSummittoSeaishighlyrelevantforputtingintopracticemuchofthetheorybehindthisnewandfairlyradicalandprogressiveWelshlegislation.AdetailedassessmentofhowtheSummittoSeaprojectisembeddedwithinthispoliticalandpolicylandscapeandtheopportunitiesthisprovidesisincludedinSection2:TheoryofChangeunder‘Assessmentofrelevantpost-Brexitpolicyreforms’.

SeveralS2Spartnerorganisationshavededicatedstaffworkingonpolicyresearchandgovernmentlobbying.ManysitonvariousboardsandadvisorypanelssuchasWalesEnvironmentLinkandWoodlandStrategyAdvisoryPanel,meaningthattheprojectwillbewellrepresentedatapolicylevel.Co-leadprojectpartner,TheWoodlandTrust,isworkingtolobbytheWelshGovernmenttocreateaSustainableLandManagementpolicywhichwillunderpinthedevelopmentofpost-Brexitlandmanagementsupporttiedtothedeliveryofpublicgoodsthroughincreasedecosystemresilience.

Scaling up TheprojectbuildsonlessonslearntinawiderangeoflandscaperestorationprojectswhichareongoingintheUKwhichmanyofourpartnershavebeeninvolvedinbutinthebreadthanddepthofitsscopeandscaleS2SisapioneeringprojectthathasnopastorpresentanalogueintheUK.Itwillprovideaground-breakingmodelforconservationandlandusethatcouldpotentiallybereplicatedinotherareasofWalesandtheUK.Theexperiencegainedfromtheprocessofecologicalandeconomicrestorationwillfeedintoabodyofknowledgethatcanbeusedforsimilarrestorationinitiativesacrossotherrurallandscapesbothnationallyandinternationally.RewildingBritainhasplanstocatalyselandscapescaleprojectselsewhere,attheveryleastoneineachofScotlandandEngland.TherichlearningopportunitythatS2SprovideswillbeexploitedinordertoguidethecreationofaUKnetworkofrewilding/ecologicalrestorationprojects.

Theinitial5yearfundedprogrammewillfocusona10,000haareaoflandanda28,400haareaofseabutweseethisprojectasverylongterm.Thistransitionstageinintendedtogalvanizelandowners,seausers,publicbodiesandNGOstoworktogethertoenableecologicalprocessestoevolveatscalewhilstthefoundationsofanature-basedeconomyareestablished.TheplanistousetheimpetusandopportunityprovidedbytheinitialELPfundingtoleverageadditionalinvestment

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intotheareaandtheproject,forexampleinrelationtoeco-tourismandforestrestoration.Astheprojectgathersmomentumthroughthetransitionstage,therelianceonsubsidyandgrantfundingisexpectedtobegraduallyreplacedbyamorerobustnature-basedeconomywhichcanprovideamoresustainablefinancialmechanismtoperpetuateecologicalrestoration.Itisimportantthattheseedsofthiseconomicdevelopmentaresownattheoutsetoftheprojectthroughinnovativebusinessplans,diversificationofincomestreamsandthecreationofnovelsupplychainstiedtoruralbusinesses.TheproposedSummittoSeaentity,onceitisestablished,willhaveabespokegovernancemechanismthatwillprovideastructuretoenabledecisionmaking,absorbnewmembersanddirectthesharingofknowledgeandresourcesastheprojectgrows.

Beyondthetransitionphase,therewillbeanopportunitytobringinmorestakeholdersfromawiderlandareainordertoexpandtheproject’sspatialscope.Therearelongtermplanstoexpandtheterrestrialprojectareatoencompassupto60,000hectarelandareawithanon-goingco-managementagreementoverthewholeofthemarinearea.Thiswillbedonethroughactiveoutreachtostakeholdercommunities,leadingbyexampleandpeertopeerinspiration.S2Smakesanofferandcreatesanopportunityforlandownerswithinaperiodofuncertaintyandchange,ifthetransitionphaseissuccessfulthentheinterventionsandprojectmechanismscouldbescaledupbybringinginmorestakeholdersfromthewiderprojectareatotakeadvantageoftheecologicalandeconomicopportunitiesthattheprojectprovides.

16. Exit strategy and sustainability __________________________________________________________________________________

TheSummittoSeaprojecthasbeendesignedtoinitiateenduringlong-termchangesinthemanagementofnaturalresources,changesthatallowresiliencetoreturntothelandscapeandthecommunitiesthatrelyuponit.Theinitial5yearfundedperiodoftheprojectisseenasatransitionphasetocatalyseaprocessofactionandinnovationintheprojectarea.Fromtheoutset,interventionssupportedbytheprojectwillbedesignedandimplementedwithsustainabilityinmindsothattheinitialfundingreallydoesactasacatalystforlongtermchangeandisn’tdependentoncontinuallyfindingsimilarlevelsofgrantfunding.

Thereisnointentiontoendtheprojectafterjustfiveyears.Weseethetransformationofthelandscapeastakingdecadesforthefullbenefitstobeachieved,sotherewon’tbean“Exit”assuch.However,wedorecognisetheimpactofhavingsubstantialupfrontfunding,withthecapacitythatthatbringsforalimitedperiodoftime,andtheriskstotheprojectthatthisintroduceswhenthatfundingends.Therearetwoparticularprojectmechanismsthatwillensureanenduringprojectlegacyandthatinterventionsareeconomicallyandecologicallysustainable:establishingalocally-ledSummittoSeaentityfortheproject’son-goinggovernanceandmanagementandestablishingaresilientnature-basedeconomy.Broadlyspeaking,thesetwomechanismswillprovidecontinuityandfinancialsupporttosustaintheproject’simpactastheinitialfundingends.

ASummittoSeapartnershiphasalreadybeenestablished,coordinatedthroughaSteeringGroup.Thisprovidestheinitialdecision-makingstructuretoguidetheroll-outofactionsandinterventions.Thepartnershipisaforumfortheproject’smulti-stakeholder,interdisciplinaryapproach.Akeymilestoneofthisgroupwillbetoleadonthecreationofacommonvisionforecologicalrestorationandtheeconomicframeworkthatwillpowerthis.Weanticipatethatbytheendofthefiveyearsalocally-ledSummittoSeaentity(e.g.acharityand/orsocialenterprisecompany)willbeestablishedandleadingtheproject(employingpeopleandhandlingfinances).TheaiminthelongertermisthatthisS2Sentitywillhaveasmall,agilemanagement/administrationteamthatcoordinateson-goingecologicalrestorationactivitiesandsupportsmarketingandinvestment/businessdevelopment

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acrossthearea.Thisentityshouldbeself-sustainingwithin15-20yearsthroughmechanismssuchasbusiness/conservationleviesandfees(e.g.smallpercentageofincreasedprofitreceivedbybusinessesandfeesformarketingsupport)supplementedwithavailablegrant/governmentfundingwhennecessary/available.

Thesustainabilityofthetransitiontoanature-basedeconomyisexploredindetailinSection2:TheoryofChangebutfinancialforecastingcarriedoutbyConservationCapitalsuggestthatitcouldprovidestablerevenueforlandownersandsea-usersprovidingthatthebuildingblocksareputintoplaceearlyon.Wewillbeworkingtoattractsignificantinwardinvestmentintotheproject,theprojectareaandinthebusinessesassociatedwithit.WearealreadyworkingwithWelshGovernment,ConservationCapital,TheEdenProject,Arup,TheWaterlooFoundationandprivateindividualstoexplorespecificoptionsforthis.Theprojectbudgetwillnotbeusedtocreatedependencyamongststakeholdersbutwillsupportthedevelopmentofeconomicresilienceamongstthosewhoselivelihoodsdependuponthelandandsea.

Oneofthecriticalelementsforensuringthelongterminvolvementoffarmersistoensurethatthepost-Brexitagriculturalsupportsysteminthisareaisalignedwiththeobjectivesoftheproject.Thatseemstobethedirectionoftravel,bothinWestminsterandCardiffandwehavestartedpositivediscussionswiththeWelshGovernmentaroundanareapilotforpublicsectorPaymentforEcosystemServiceswhich,ifsuccessful,wouldbeasignificantlongtermcontributiontoviablenaturebasedfarmbusinesses23.

Thepartnershipwillalsoensurethatpartnersandstakeholdershavetherequiredcapacityandskillstoensurelongevity.Training,capacitybuildingandknowledgetransferwillberequiredtoequippeoplewiththetoolsandskillstodothingsdifferentlyandmakethetransitiontoanature-basedeconomy.

17. Budget __________________________________________________________________________________

Seedocumentattached–Wales_17.Budget

23SeeSection2:TheoryofChangeformoredetailonthis.

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18. Risk assessment __________________________________________________________________________________

Risks RiskReductionStrategiesProjectispioneeringandhasnotbeenattemptedatthisscaleinBritainbefore

Wearebringingtogetheracross-disciplinaryteamwiththenecessarypracticalandentrepreneurialexpertise,andconnectingwithsuccessfulexperiencesaroundtheworld.Mostofourpartnershaveexperienceoflandscapescalepartnershipswhichcouldbedescribedasavitallearningstepbetweentraditionalreservemanagementandthismultidisciplinary,restorationofecologyandeconomyapproach.Ourcollaborativeapproachisacrucialfactorinhelpingtoworkatthepaceanddirectionthatworkslocallyforthepartners.Arigorous,scientificapproachtomonitoringprogresswillhelpustolearnfromandadaptthemodelwherenecessary.

PoliticalandpolicycontextUncertaintyaroundtheimpactsofBrexitandtheshapeandfutureofsubsidiesandrurallandusepolicyaffectthelevelofincentivestotransitiontoanature-basedeconomy,e.g.:• if‘hard’Brexit,UKwillneedtocomply

withWTOrulesanduplandsheepproductionwillbecomeinviableasalivelihood.

• if‘soft’Brexitsubsidiesforproductionarelikelytograduallyreduceanduplandsheepproductionwillbecomeinviableasalivelihood.

• inthehighlyunlikelyeventofnoBrexitthenlevelsofproductionbasedsubsidiesmaystaythesame.

Note:alsoseetheoryofchangesectionformoredetail.TheeconomicopportunitiesprovidedbyS2Swillhavetoofferaviablealternativetoexistinglandusebutlandownersmaytransitionataslowerrateastheywanttowaitforclaritytoevaluatetheiroptions.WelshGovernmentlegislationandpoliciesalreadyincludestrongdriverstowardslandscapescaleapproacheswhichimproveecologicalresilienceandconnectivityandecosystemfunctionbutimplementationstrategieshavenotyetbeendeveloped.S2SwillusethisperiodofpoliticalhiatustoactivelymakethecaseforaruraleconomicandecologicalmodelthathelpsWelshGovtdeliveronitspolicytargetsTheprojectwilldevelopanumberofshorttomediumtermoptionsforlandownerstoengagewithS2S(e.g.farmclusterstobidforWelshGovernmenthabitatrestorationfunds)whichcanbothbuildrelationshipswithlandownersandmovetheirlandinapositivedirectioninhabitatterms.ThiswillpositiontheprojectandthelandinagoodplaceastheconsequencesofBrexitbecomesclear.

WelshGovtdoesnotfollowUKpolicyinorientatingsubsidiestowardsdeliveryofpublicgoods.

ThisisunlikelyasTheWelshMinisterhaspubliclystatedthatoneofits5principlesreBrexitandagricultureisthatsubsidiesshoulddeliverpublicgoodsthatbenefitallthepeopleofWales(seetheoryofchangesection).Theonlyscenariounderwhichthisisaseriousthreatis,iffollowingtheWelshAssemblyelections

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Risks RiskReductionStrategiesin2019thereispoliticalchange.Forexample,ifthereisonceagainaPlaidCymru/LabourcoalitionandPlaidgettheAgricultureportfolioandtheystronglypushthefarmers’unions’positionofseekingcontinueddirectsubsidies.Theriskissmallasallpartieshaveincludedreferencestosupportingpaymentsforecosystemservicesorpublicgoodsintheirmanifestos.However,inthiseventS2Smustprovideaviableeconomicalternativetocurrentlanduseforthosethatwanttotakeitupbutthismaybeataslowerrate.

Outcome1:EcologicalRestoration Ecologicalrestorationinterventionsdonotprovidethedesiredoutcomes

Usetriedandtestedmethodswhereavailable.Whereusinginnovativemethodsdevelopadaptivemanagementandlearnfromtheprocess.

Theincentivesareinsufficientforadditionalpartners/landownerstoincludetheirland-holdingsintheproject.

ThisisunlikelyasallindicationsarethattheconsequencesofBrexitwillmeanthatmanyuplandlandownerswilleitherbelookingforviableeconomicalternativesormayhavetoleavefarming.Ifitdoesoccurwewillrefocuseffortsonacombinationofdirecthabitatconnectivitybetweentheexistingpartnerownedlandandenablingcreationofadditionalpatchesofhabitatinthelandscapethatcontributetoacriticalmassoffunctionalhabitatinamosaicacrossthelandscape.

Coordinatedrestorationactionsacrosslandholdingsareunabletodemonstrableimprovementsinhabitats,species,ecologicalfunctionandservices.

Ifchangeismuchslowerorlessthanexpectedseektounderstandthereasonsforthisandadaptprojectplanstoaddresslikelycauses.

NopostBrexitruralsupport/paymentforpublicgoodsisavailabletosupportlandownerstocarryoutrestorationworkandtransitiontonature-basedenterprises.

WelshGovernmenthasalreadyindicatedthatsupportwillbeavailable.EnsureS2Sworkswithitspartnerstoinfluencethedirectionofthissupport.Specifically,developproposaltoWGforapilotpublicsectorPESprogrammeintheprojectareaincaseitisnotofferednationally.

Seausersarenotmotivatedtotakecoordinatedactionsleadingtoseabedrecovery.

Ensurecommunityengagementisundertakenfromthestart–localfisheryactiongroupalreadyshowingsupport–anddevelopevidencetoshowbenefitsofcoordinatedengagement.Usecasestudiesofwhererestorationhasbenefittedseausersinotherplaces,ifnecessaryarrangestudytour.

Speciesreintroductions(wherenecessary)arenotacceptabletolocalcommunities

Asabove–ensurecommunityengagementfromthestartanddevelopclearevidencetoshowpossibleeconomic/ecological/communitybenefitsofanyproposedreintroductions.Beclearfromstartaboutwhatlevelofsupportoroppositionisconsideredsufficienttodeterminewhetheraproposalgoesforward.Bepreparedtoparkspecificproposalsifthe

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Risks RiskReductionStrategiesthresholdforsupportisnotmet.Itmaybemoresuccessfulatalaterdate.

Outcome2:Nature-basedeconomyS2Sisunabletodevelopabusinessoffertolandowners/sea-userswhichisbetterthanthealternativespostBrexit.

S2Swillcarryoutrigorousfeasibilitystudiesandmarketassessmenttoensurethatbusinesscaseisrealisticandoffersviablealternatives.S2SwillworkwithlocalbusinessforatoinfluenceWelshGovernmentandCountypoliciestoofferalternatives.

PostBrexiteconomicclimateisnotconducivetonewbusinessdevelopment.

Unlikely–midWalesalreadyestablishedasatargetfordevelopmentduetocurrentlowincomes.NeedtopromoteS2Svisionasakeytodevelopment

TheS2Sbusinessplandoesnotattractsufficiententerpriseinvestmentintotheareawithin5yearsLocalbusinessandenterprisesinitiativesdon’texperienceincreasedeconomicreturnsthroughbeingassociatedwiththeS2SbrandandvaluesS2Svisionandbranddoesnotinspirenewnature-basedenterprisestogetestablished.Recoveringnatureisinsufficienttodriverevenuebeforebenefitsoffullyrestoredecosystemsareavailable

Needtomanageexpectationsinrelationtotimescales.Naturebasedbusinesseswillpresentmoreofanopportunityoncethenatureisclearlyrecoveringandthiswilltakesomeyearsespeciallyintheuplands.However,therearealreadyrichecologicalassetsthatcouldformthebasisforPhase1infrastructure/businessdevt.Thereareexistingrelevantbusinesseswhocouldbesupportedtodiversifytheiroffer.InthemeantimeS2Swillworktoestablishatransitioneconomysupportedbypublicpaymentstoallowtimeforthebusinessplanstodevelopandforinvestmenttobesecured.

Competinglandusesprovidemoreattractiveeconomicalternativestolandowners,e.g.commercialconiferplantationcompaniesareactivelylookingtoexpandtimberproductioninthearea,mainlyfortax-relatedbenefits.Therearealsowind-farminterestsregisteredacrosstheareawhicharenotcurrentlybeingdevelopedlargelybecauseofpoliticalplanningissues.

Wewillmitigatetheserisksbysecuringthebuy-infrommultipleowners/stewards,withthecollectiveinfluencetheybring,ensuringthatadiversifiednature-basedeconomyprovidesanattractive,viableandresilientalternative.Wewillremainflexibleaboutwhichlandcomesintotheprojectwithinthetargetareasothatsuccessisnotdependentonthedecisionsofasmallnumberoflandowners.Connectivitycanbeachievedacrossthelandscapeeitherviadifferentcontiguousholdingsorviathecriticalmass/mosaicapproach.

Anynewbusinessenterpriseshaveinherentrisksassociatedwiththeconditionsofthewidereconomy.

Ourinitialresearchsuggeststhatthisriskcanbereducedandspreadbydiversifyingtheenterprisesandrevenuestreamsasmuchaspossibletoincreaseeconomicresilience.

Increasednature-basedtourismmayaffectexistinglanduses.Forexample,increasedmountainbikingandhikingmayimpactonforestareasandfarmlands/landsadjoiningfarm.

Engagingdirectlywithlandownersandcommunitiesonthisissueandaimtobuildamodelthatbenefitslandscapemanagersaswellasactivityproviders.

Landownersmaynothaveknowledgeofdiversifyingtheirincomethroughdevelopingtourismservicesandtherelatedfinancetodoso,andmaythereforebeinitiallyunwillingto

ItisvitalaspartoftheSummittoSeatoprovideadequatetrainingandguidanceonbusinessgeneration,especiallyaroundfinanceoptionsavailable.OtheragenciessuchasBusinessWales

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Risks RiskReductionStrategiespursuenewrevenueopportunities. andMenterBusnescanhelpwiththis.Forestryhasalong-termhorizonofchange,and,accordingly,stakeholdersmaynotseea“return”withintheshorttomediumterm.

Itwillbeimperativetoengagewithlandownersandotherstakeholderstoexplainthelong-termnatureofthechangesbeingmade,andtorewardlandownersfortakingalong-termview.

Proposalstotransformforestmanagementpracticeandtocreatenewforestedareasthroughafforestationornaturalregenerationwillleadtoadifferentlandscape.Thiswillimpactaestheticallybutalsopracticallyonpeoples’dailylives.

Seeboxabove.Itisimportanttoworkcloselywithlocalstakeholdersinordertofacilitatetheimpactofthischange,aesthetically,logisticallyandeconomically.

Theaveragefarmsizeiscomparativelysmall.Accordingly,itmaynotbefinanciallyorecologicallyviableforindividualfarmstoengageinforestry.

Itisrecommendedthatinordertocreatethenecessaryscale,adjoiningagriculturallandownersmaycombineefforts.Processesandadvisoryserviceswillbeputinplacetosupportthis.

Byshiftingfarmingmethodologies,farmersmaybeconcernedtheywillloseaccesstotheircurrentsubsidies.

Itisenvisagedthat,atleastinitially,anysuchshiftwouldallowfarmerstokeepaccesstothesamesubsidies,and,indeed,gainaccesstofurthertypesofsubsidies.

IfUKfundingtoWalesfollowsthe‘BarnettFormula’(i.e.linkedtopopulation)WaleswillbeworseoffthanundercurrentCAPfundingandtherewillbeinsufficientfundingavailableforpublicgoodstosupportatransitioneconomy

Thisisalowriskas,atDefraquestionson26April2018MichaelGovehasalreadystated:‘Wewanttomakesure,asisthecaseatthemoment,farmersinWales–indeed,farmersunderallthedevolvedadministrations–receivemoremoneythanwouldbestrictlythecaseundertheBarnettFormula.’

PESisarelativelynewmarket-basedmechanism.Todate,privatebusinesshasbeentypicallyunwillingtoinvestheavilyinPES.Accordingly,theremaybelimitedexpertiseinthisfieldintheSummittoSealandscape,andtheeconomicdriversforPES(e.g.,buyersoftheservices,andpublicfinanceandsupportforsuchactivity)maychange.

Itisenvisagedthataregionalexpertguidancegroupisestablishedtoassistlandownersidentifyopportunitiesinthissector.Therealreadyexistsanationalgovernment-backedPESadvisorypractitionersgroup.24

Therewillbenonetgaininlocalemploymentandprocurementopportunitiesduetotheprojectanditsmultipliereffect.

TheprojectneedstokeepcleardataonemploymentgeneratedthroughtheprojectasfaraspossibleandalsotobeabletodifferentiateanychangesinemploymentduetotheprojectfromchangesduetootherfactorsotherwiseifunemploymentrisesorincomesdropduetoBrexitconditionsforexampleitmaymaskanygainsduetotheproject.

ConflictsandcompetitionemergebetweenS2Sandsimilarinitiativesinthearea

S2SisengagingactivelywiththeDyfiBiosphereReserveandtheCambrianMountainsInitiativesandlookingforareaswherewecansupporteachotherandworkjointlyforcommonaims.

24Formoreinformationsee:http://gov.wales/topics/environmentcountryside/consmanagement/payments-for-ecosystems-projects/?lang=en.

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Risks RiskReductionStrategies

Outcome3:Partnership,governanceandlegalentityIntheS2Sareaaworkablelegalentity/governancemodelcan’tbefoundthatengagesprivatelandownersandotherstakeholdersinacommitmenttomanageandprotectthearea.Economicactorsareunwillingtoengageinacollaborativeplatform.

Themodelwillbedevelopedjointlywithbusinessesandlandownerssoifthereisamutuallyacceptablemodelitshouldbepossibletoestablishit.Howeverifnomodelcanbefoundwhichissufficientlycompellingtopersuadefarmersandotherbusinessestocollaboratethenarevisedmodelwhichfocusesmoreonlandownedbypartners,withscopeforfutureexpansion,wouldneedtobedeveloped.

Effective/workablemechanismsofagreementor‘covenant’onlandcannotbefoundtoensurelong-termstabilityofS2Svision

Thiswillbealongtermgoalandmaynotbeachievedforprivatelandwithin5years.However,thelandownedbyNGOandgovernmentpartnersmakesupasignificantareaandapossiblemodelisthatitisthis“public”landwhichhavelongtermsecurityofuseonitandtheprivatelandaroundmaycomeinandoutoftheprojectovertime,providinganadditionalcontributiontothecriticalmassofhabitatbutnotastaticone.

Itisnotpossibletodesignandagreecodesofuseofthelandthataremeaningfulandacceptabletolandowners/resourceusers

Aimtokeepthecodesassimpleaspossibleandtheincentivesforandbenefitsfromsigninguptothecodesasattractiveaspossible.

ThemanagementteamandSteeringGrouphaveinsufficientcapacitytoimplementtheprojectasplanned

Toensurethatitiseffectivewearebringingtogetheracross-disciplinaryteamwiththenecessarypracticalandentrepreneurialexpertise,andconnectingwithsuccessfulexperiencesaroundtheworld.Wearealsoworkingthroughandwithagroupofpartnerswithsubstantialcombinedexpertiseandcapacity.

Outcome4:CommunityengagementOppositionorlackofbuy-infromlocalowners/stewardsandcommunities

Ourpriorityistoopenapositivedialogueandworkwithlocalstakeholderstolearnfromtheirexperience,jointlyshapetheproject’sstrategyandensurebenefitsareshared.

Conflictsarisefromsomeofthenegativeimpactsoftheproject,e.g.riseinpredatornumbers

Ensureopendialogueonthisfromtheoutset,includingpotentialmitigationsuchaspredatorcontrol.

Outcome5:PolicyandlegislativemechanismsNRWandWelshGovernmentareunabletodeliveronthecommitmentsinthenewEnvironmentandWellBeingActs.

AsthisisalegalrequirementthenS2SwillworkwithpartnerstokeeppressureonWGandNRW(seetheoryofchangesection)

WelshGovernmentdoesnotfollowUKgovernmentinorientatingsubsidiestowardspaymentsofpublicgoods

WGhavealreadyindicated‘support’willcontinue.S2Stoworkwithpartnerstoinfluencethedirectionofthatsupport(seetheoryofchangesection)

WelshGovernmentisnotopentopilotingagroupcontractwithlandownersforthedeliveryofpublicgoods.

Unlikely–WGgrantssuchasSustainableManagementSchemealreadysupportjointapplications.S2Stosupport‘FarmClusters’intheirapplications(seetheoryofchangesection)

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19. Socio-cultural impacts and safeguards assessment __________________________________________________________________________________

Participation Overthelast18monthstheprojectteamhasopenedadialogueaboutthepotentialoftheSummittoSeaprojectwithawiderangeofstakeholdergroupsandindividuals.Forexample,inJuly2017webroughtawiderangestakeholderstogetherforaworkshoptoexplorethepossiblebenefitsandcostsofS2Sandtobegintodevelopasharedvision.Thisworkshopdemonstratedbroadsupportfortheproject’svisionandforworkingtogethertocontinuetoshapeitsdesignandledtotheestablishmentoftheproject’sSteeringGroup.

Wehavespentthelast12monthsfollowingupwitheachparticipanttoexploremutualareasofinterestandgainfurtherinputintotheproject’sdevelopment.Sixsubsequentpartner/stakeholderworkshopshavebeenheldaspartoftheparticipatory,stakeholder-ledapproachtotheproject.

Inthisprojectdesignstagewehavesofarmetorspokenindividuallytoover160individuals,manyofwhomalsorepresentstakeholdergroups.Thishasincludedfarmersgroups,sea-user/fishersgroupsandvisitingover25individuallandowners/farmerstotalkthroughtheproject’sapproach.Thenextstageofidentifyingallhouseholdsandgroupsandhowtoensureequalaccesswillbeundertakenasafirststepinthecommunityengagementworkoncetheprojectisfundedandcapacitytodothiscanbebroughtin.

Wewillcontinuetoreachasmanyfarmers/landowners/sea-useraspossiblebeforetheprojectisfundedbycontactingthemthroughtheirrepresentativeorganisationsandunions.Thecommunicationsplanwillbefurtherdevelopedtoensurethatasmanyaspossibleofnon-landowningstakeholdersarereachedearlyonintheprojectsothattheyalsohavetheopportunitytogetinvolved.Processesforongoinginvolvementanddisputeresolutionwillbedevelopedaspartofthegovernanceoftheproject.

Vulnerable (excluded/marginalized) people and groups Theareahasafullcrosssectionofsocietyincludingallvulnerablegroups:peopleonverylowincomes,peoplewithdisabilities,elderlypeople,migrantworkers,asmallgroupofrefugeefamiliesinAberystwythandpeoplewithmentalhealthissuesthatleadtoisolation.

Thepopulationisrelativelyelderlyandthismeansthattherearelikelytobearelativelyhighnumberofpeoplewhowouldnotbereachedthroughsocialmediaoremail(Mid-Waleshasahigherthanaveragepercentageofadultswhoarenotonline)andthesewillneedadditionalefforttoengage.

Thesegroupsareunlikelytofaceadditionalburdensbecauseoftheprojectbuttheymayfacebarrierstoparticipationortobenefittingfromitonaccountofbeingmoredifficulttoreachduetonotusingtheinternetinsomecasesandnothavingtransporttoattendmeetingsorvisitprojectsites.

Ourcommunityengagementteamandcommunicationsleadwilldevelopstrategiestoovercomethesebarriers.Sofarwehavedoneitthisbyphoningpeopleorwritingtothemwheretheydon’tusetheinternetandbyvisitingpeopleathomeontheirfarmstotalktothemratherthanexpectingthemtocometous.Therearesomeprojectswithintheareathatourpartnersarerunningwhichareaimedatengagingpeoplewhodon’ttendtogetoutdoorsinnature-forexampletheDolauMeadowsproject-andweareengagingwiththemtolearnfromtheirapproach.

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Men and women Farming,fishingandforestryaretraditionallymaledominatedsectorsalthoughwomenareheavilyinvolvedinfarming.Whoeverisengagedinnaturalresourcemanagement,wholefamilieswillbepotentiallypositivelyimpactedbytheprojectasitfocusesonkeepingfamiliesontheland/seaandgeneratingadditionalopportunitiestomakethatpossible.Someoftheanticipatedalternativeincomestreamsarelikelytobetakenupbywomenastheyaremorerepresentedintourismandfoodsectorsthaninfishingandforestry.

Possiblebarrierstoparticipationmaybemorearoundskillsthangender.Wehaven’tfoundsofarthattherehavebeensignificantlymorementhanwomeninvolved.Theprojectwillworkontrainingandskillsdevelopmenttoensurethatlocalpeoplehaveorcangettheskillstomakethemostofnewopportunities.Theparticipatoryvideoprojectsdescribedinthecommunityengagementplanwillalsoworktoensurethatthevoiceacrossgendersisbalanced.

Thereisanelementofpeerpressureamongstthefarmingcommunitywhichmaypreventsomefarmersfromgettinginvolved.Forexample,farmerexpressconcernaboutwhatotherfarmerssayiftheymovetowardsorganicfarmingorlesscommercialcattlebreeds.Thisprobablyaffectsmenmorethanwomenbecausetheytendtobetheonesattendinglivestocksalesandfoxhuntingmeetswherethiskindofpeerpressureislikelytobeexerted.Therecanbeanelementofmachismowhichdoesn’tencourageinnovationorworkingwithconservationbodiesasitisseenas“notrealfarming”.Theoldergenerationofmalefarmersalsostillhasasignificantsayoverfarmbusinessmodelsandcanactasaconstrainttotheyoungergeneration–maleandfemale–toinnovate.

Theprojectwillaimtobalancegenderrepresentationamongststaff,onanyadvisorybodiesandinrelationtoopportunitieswithintheprojectsuchastraining,fundsforrestorationworkorcontracts.Wewillappointonememberoftheadvisorypanelwithaspecificresponsibilitytoholdustoaccountonthisissue.

Livelihoods and wellbeing Useoforaccesstonaturalresources:Theprojectdoesn’tintendtoimposeresourcemanagementrestrictionson3rdparties,anyinvolvementintheprojectbylandownersorrightsholderswillbeentirelyvoluntary.Ifalandownerorgrazier(forexample)decidestojointheprojecttheywillneedtoagreetocertaincodesofpracticeandtheywillonlydothatiftheyconsiderthebenefitstooutweighthecosts.Inrelationtoseausers,iftheyagreetosetupacommunitymanagedmarinereservethentheywillbecloselyinvolvedinsettingthetermsofanyrestrictionsonuseofsearesourcessoagainthatwouldonlybeifthebenefitsoutweighanycosts.Theremaybeamajoritywhodowanttojointlymanagemarineresourceusebutaminoritywhodon’tagreeandarenotpartofanyagreement.Thiswouldneedtoberesolvedthroughthecommunityengagementprocess.

Recreational,culturalorspiritualactivities:Theremayneedtobesomerestrictionsonsomerecreationalactivitiesthatcurrentlygoonincoreareassuchasjetskiswheretheydisturbdolphinsbutthisisnotamajoractivityinthisarea.Thereisnointentiontotryandrestrictculturalorspiritualcustoms,withtheexceptionthathuntingwithhoundsisnotallowedonNGOownedland.Thisisstillawidespreadculturalactivity,aswellasbeingperceivedasapestcontrolmeasure,andanychangestothesepracticeshavetobehandledsensitivelyandagreedlocally.

Humanwildlifeconflict:Thereisaconcernamongstsomefarmerslocallythatmoresemi-naturalhabitatwillresultinmorepredators,suchasfoxesandbadgers,andtheirimpactsonlambs,poultryandgroundnestingbirds.Theprojectintendstoengagewiththisissueandtoworkwithfarmerstomitigateimpactsand,ifnecessary,toconsiderfoxcontrolmeasures(badgersareaprotectedspecies).Otherhuman/animalconflictsaremorelikelytobearounddogwalkersandgrazing

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animalssuchashorses,butthesearenewornotuniquetotheproject.Thereispotentialformorecomplexissuestoariseinrelationtoanyreintroductionssuchasbeaverandthisiswhyanyreintroductionswillbeconditionalonlocalconsultationandriskassessmentsandwillincludemeasurestomanageanysuchconflict.Forexamplethepinemartenrelocationsintotheareahavebeenwidelysupportedandsuccessfulbutthereisstillamemberofstaffresponsibleformanaginganyconflictsthatmayarise.

Balancinghumanwellbeingwithbiodiversityconservation:Theprojecthasthreemainstrandswhichbetweenthemaimtobalancethesedifferentobjectives.Inadditiontoabiodiversityrestorationstrandthereisastrongfocusondiversifyingandstrengtheningthelocaleconomy,andalsooncommunityengagement.Detailsofeachofthesearegiveninotherpartsofthisapplication.

Tenure and rights to land and resources Landwillonlycomeintotheprojectifthetenureandrightsholdersdecidethatitisintheirinterestsforittodoso.Thereisnotexpectedtobeanyreductionofuseorrightsforthesegroupsunlesstheyagreetodoso,e.g.throughtheuseofconservationcovenantsorlong-termleaseagreement.Thereisnointentiontoreducepublicaccessorrightsofwayintheprojectarea.Wearenotawareofothertraditionaluserrightswhichwouldbeaffectedbytheprojectbutthepublicengagementworkshouldhelptoidentifyanythatthereare.

Resettlement or displacement Thereisnointentiontodisplacepeopleorpreventaccesstoresourcestheyhavetraditionallyused,tothecontrary,theprojectaimstoenablepeopletostayonthelandbydevelopingalternativeadditionalincomestreamstoreplaceuneconomicagriculture.

Indigenous peoples TherearenopopulationsintheUKwhichmeetthecriteriatobeclassifiedasindigenouspeopleunderinternationallaw.ThereisalocalWelshspeakingcommunityintheprojectarea,therearealsoEnglishspeakingWelshpeopleaswellasWelshspeakingand/orEnglishspeakingpeoplefromotherpartsoftheUKandfurtherafield.AllofthesegroupshavebeenincludedinthediscussionssofarandwillbeinfuturebuttherewillbeaparticularfocusonengagingwithruralfarmingcommunitieswhotendtospeakmoreWelshandalsobemoreinvolvedwithanddependentonthelandfortheirlivelihoods.

Theprojecthasawidepotentialarea(60,000Ha)andtheaimistobring10,000Haintorestorationsothereisnoneedforpeoplefromanycommunitytobeinvolvedunlesstheychoosetobe.Thecommunityengagementprocesswillbeopentoallwhetherornottheyareinterestedingettingmoreinvolvedandthisprocesswillhelptoshapetheprojectandtoensurethattheprojectdoesn’tnegativelyimpactonlocalcommunities.

Monitoring and impact assessment Wehaveidentifiedsocialindicatorsandaprocedureformonitoringthem.SeeMonitoringPlanfordetails.

Research and studies AnydatagatheredwillstoredandsafeguardedincompliancewithGDPR.

Partnerships

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Wehaveninekeypartners–ofverydifferentsizes,somewillhavedetailedpolicieswhileothersmaynot.Wewillascertainwhatpolicieseachpartnerhasinplaceandestablishandagreeprocedurestofillanygaps.

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20. Environmental impacts assessment _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PossibleAdverseeffect Mitigationmeasures Monitoring Responsibility CostestimateInterventionfailstoimprovehabitatsandspeciesorcausesadverseeffectsonexistinghabitatsandspecies.

Ensureadaptivemanagementistiedintomonitoringwithnofixedoutcomeexpected

Allinterventionswillbemonitoredaspartoftheoverallmonitoringprocess,withspecificmonitoringdesignedforspecificinterventions

OverallresponsibilitywiththeSummittoSeamanager–individualsitestheresponsibilityofprojectmanagers

Varied–mostcostswillbecoveredunderthemonitoringbudget

Increasedaccessdevelopedbytheprojectcausesdisturbancetoprotectedspecies/habitats

Ensurecarefuldesignofaccesstoavoidsensitiveareas.Considerpathclosures/diversionsifnecessary

Monitorvisitoruseofthetrailsandlocationofsensitivespecies/habitats

SummittoSeaManagerwithNRWofficers

Automatictrailcounters£900each.Numberneededtobedecidedintraildesign.Species/habitatswillbecoveredbymonitoringprogramme.

Increasedaccessdevelopedbytheprojectcauseserosioninsensitiveareas

Ensurecarefuldesignofaccesstoavoidsensitiveareas.Considernon-intrusivepathmaintenanceand/orpathclosures/diversionsifnecessary

Monitortrailsonanannualbasisbywalking.

SummittoSeaManager ShouldbeabletobecoveredbyvolunteersinassociationwithlocalRamblers.

Increasedtourismcausestrafficproblemsinsmallruralroads

Ensurecarefuldesignofanyliteraturetoguidepeopletonon-sensitiveareasandincludedetailsofpublictransport.

Discusspotentialmonitoringwithlocalauthoritiestransportdepartments–trafficcountersetc.

SummittoSeamanager Dependonleveloflocalauthorityinput

Grazinglevelscauseunwantedimpacts

Managegrazingpressurebymovingstockaround/changingnumbers/species

Grazinglevelsandeffectsonspeciesrichness,trampling,etc.willbepartofthe

SummittoSeaManagerandstockmanagers

Coveredinbudgetforbiodiversityandherbivoremonitoring

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ofgrazersanimalnumbers monitoringforbiodiversity.Introductionof‘naturalisticgrazing’involvinglettinganimalsrangeacrosspropertiesraisebiosecurityissues

Ensureanyproposalisfullyrisk-assessedandfullliaisonwithneighbours,NRWandWelshGovernmentAgricultureDepartment

Animalhealthwillbemonitoredaspartofnormalgoodpracticehusbandry

Stockmanagers Tobeincludedinanyprojectproposal

Colonisationbynon-native,invasivespeciescausedbygrazinginterventions

Manualremovalofnon-nativeandinvasiveplantspeciessuchasJapaneseknotweedorRhododendron

Partofthecontinualprogrammeofbiodiversitymonitoringandregularobservationsinthefield

SummittoSeaManagerandindividualsitemanagers

ShouldbeabletobecoveredbyvolunteersinassociationwithlocalWildlifeTrustandWWLF.

Changesinvegetationcovercausesincreaseinpredatorsthatcouldaffectotherspeciesand/orrelationshipswithlandowners

Considerpotentialpredatorcontrolandregularliaisonwithlandowners

Predatorstobemonitoredaspartoftheoverallmonitoringprogrammes.Feedbackfromlandownerswillbeinvestigated

SummittoSeaManagerandEcologist

Noneinitially,tobecostedifproblemsarise

Problemscausedbyre-introductions,suchasdisease,geneticsofpopulationsandimpactonotherspecies

Ensureallre-introductionsarefullyresearchedandrisk-assessed.Expertswillbefullyinvolved,IUCNguidelinesfollowedandallappropriatelicencesobtained.

Monitoringprogrammewillbedevelopedwithanyre-introductionproposal

SummittoSeaManager/Ecologistandspecialistexpertteams

Tobecostedaspartofanyprojectproposal

Interventionscausereleaseofmetaltoxinsfromoldminesandminewasteintowatercourses

Interventionswillbefullyrisk-assessedandsurveysundertakenbeforecommencement.FullliaisonwithNRWexpertswhoworkontheprobleminthearea

Monitoringprogramme,ifrequired,willbeproducedwithNRWexperts

SummittoSeaManager/ProjectManagersandNRW

Tobedevelopedonaprojectbyprojectbasis

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21. Due Diligence assessment __________________________________________________________________________________

Seedocumentsattached:

• Wales_21.DueDiligenceassessmentRewildingBritain• Wales_21.DueDiligenceassessmentWoodlandTrust

Supporting Documents __________________________________________________________________________________

Thefollowingsupportingdocumentsareattached.

1. Lettersofintentfromthefollowingprojectpartnerorganisations:

• ecodyfi• MarineConservationSocietyMCS• PLASMarineSAC• MontgomeryshireWildlifeTrustMWT• NaturalResourcesWalesNRW• RoyalSocietyfortheProtectionofBirdsRSPB• WalesWildLandFoundationWWLF• WhaleandDolphinSocietyWDC• WoodlandTrust(asprojectco-lead)

2. Declarationsofsupportfromthefollowing:

• ChrisSandom,SussexUniversityandWildBusiness• ConservationCapital• EdenProject• GeoSpatialDecisionsGSD• HeatherStevensCBE• JohnMuirTrustJMT• PentirPumlumon• PeterDavies• PukkaHerbs(PukkaTea)• SophieWynneJones,BangorUniversity• TheWaterlooFoundation• VincentWildlifeTrust

3. Auditedaccounts(fromtheleadorganisation)forthelasttwoyears:

• RewildingBritainauditedaccounts2015-2016• RewildingBritainauditedaccounts2016-2017

4. Copyoftheleadorganisation’sconstitution

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• RewildingBritain–Constitution