sunbird energy corporate presentation for personal use onlyjun 28, 2013 · 28 june 2013 sunbird...
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Sunbird Energy Ltd – ACN 150 956 773
www.sunbirdenergy.com.au Suite B9, 431 Roberts Road, Subiaco, WA 6008 T: +61 (0) 8 9287 4605 F: +61 (0) 8 9287 4655
ASX Announcement 28 June 2013
Sunbird Energy Corporate Presentation
Sunbird Energy Ltd (ASX: SNY) is pleased to release the attached Corporate Presentation that was presented by Managing Director Will Barker and Chairman Kerwin Rana to investment advisers in Perth on 28 June 2013, shall be presented to investment advisers in Sydney and Melbourne in the week commencing 1st July 2013, shall be presented to investment advisers in Singapore, Hong Kong and London in the week commencing 8th July 2013 and shall be presented to investment advisers in the Republic of South Africa in the week commencing 15th July 2013. About Sunbird Energy Ltd Sunbird Energy Ltd is an ASX-listed (ASX:SNY) gas explorer and developer focused on southern Africa where limited domestic gas supply and growing energy needs have created significant opportunity for the development of large scale energy projects.
Sunbird has executed an agreement to acquire a 76% stake in the 869 Bcfe (billion cubic feet
equivalent) Ibhubesi Gas Project offshore of the west coast of South Africa. The transaction, which is
subject to approval of a transfer of title from the South African Department of Mineral Resources, will
give Sunbird the right to operate and develop the Ibhubesi Gas Project, South Africa’s largest
undeveloped gas field. The Ibhubesi Gas Project has multiple development opportunities including
gas-fired power projects to supply the high value South African energy market. Sunbird’s joint venture
partner in the project is PetroSA (24%), the national oil company of South Africa.
Sunbird also has a portfolio of five Coal Bed Methane (CBM) projects covering an extensive area
(9,904km2) of prospective coal basins across in South Africa and Botswana. Sunbird is conducting a
phased exploration program that will define the resource base and demonstrate the commercial
potential of its portfolio of CBM assets, which contain a Best Estimate Gas-in-Place of 5.3 Tcf (trillion
cubic feet).
For further information Will Barker Managing Director +61 8 9463 3260 [email protected] F
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Sunbird Energy is focused on achieving major project and commercial milestones from its large scale gas projects
• Booked certified reserves of 210 Bcf 1P (Proved) and 540 Bcf 2P (Proved and Probable) in June 2013 for the Ibhubesi Gas Project, located within the high value and under-supplied energy market of South Africa
• Independent study confirms viability of Phase 1 development of Ibhubesi Gas Project
• Field Development Plan commenced with FEED planned for 1Q 2014
• Gas market negotiations continuing
• Project funding options progressing
• Excellent results from current Mopane CBM drilling program
• Contingent Resource certification planned for 4Q 2013
• Clear path ahead, near term target milestones to build asset / company value
Sunbird delivering value from its large scale gas reserves
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYF
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Board
Kerwin Rana | ChairmanChemical Engineer with 17 years mining industry experience, previously Executive Head of New Business for De Beers. Managing Director, Umbono Capital
Will Barker | Managing DirectorGeologist with 15 years experience in gas industry, previously GM LNG, Arrow Energy & OM, New Guinea Energy
Andrew Leibovitch | Executive DirectorChartered Accountant, 20+ years in Corp Finance, previous GM roles at Woodside & Western Mining
Marcus Gracey | Non-Executive DirectorCorporate Lawyer with extensive energy experience, currently Commercial & Legal Manager at New Standard Energy
CORPORATE STRUCTURE
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Volume (m)Share Price
Capital Structure as at 21 June 2013 Undiluted Diluted
Current Share Price $0.35 $0.35
No. of Shares Outstanding 112.5m 202.5m
Market Capitalisation $39.4m $70.9m
Options 90.0m
Cash $5.0m $24.5m
Enterprise Value $34.4m $46.4mOptions currently on issue70,000,000 Options @20c, 10,000,000 Performance Options @25c, 10,000,000 Performance Options @30c.
Top 5 Shareholders & Management Shares %
Salt Minerals Investments Limited 40,000,000 36%
Investment Holdings Pty Ltd 4,625,000 4%
Management 4,300,000 4%
Deck Chair Holdings Pty Ltd 3,500,000 3%
Mahsor Holdings Pty Ltd 2,850,000 3%
Holdrey Pty Ltd 2,500,000 2%
Management Team
Nathan Rayner | Technical DirectorReservoir Engineer with extensive experience in production, reservoir and petroleum engineering
Carla Mackay | Chief Financial OfficerChartered Accountant, experience in SA banking and mining environments including corporate finance, previously with Umbono/Old Mutual
Sundil Ramluggan | Operations ManagerGeologist with significant experience in SA, previously with BHP and De Beers
Mark Balfour | General Counsel/Company SecretaryCommercial and Resources Lawyer with 30 years’ experience in private legal practice, in-house counsel roles and executive directorships in both listed and unlisted companies
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• Largest undeveloped gas field in South Africa, with proven reserves of 540 Bcf (2P)
• Agreement executed by Sunbird to acquire a 76% interest in the IGP, subject to DMR approval of transfer of title
• JV partner – PetroSA (24%), South Africa’s national oil company
• Located 380km north of Cape Town, 105km offshore, 250m of water in a 5000km² Production Licence
• 11 wells drilled, 7 gas discoveries, 1,770km2 seismic acquired
• $120m spent on exploration and development since 2000
• Recent high profile entries into area - Shell, Anadarko and Cairn India with BHP actively exploring
BHP
Sunbird
Cairn India
Island Point
Offshore
Area
KuduHRT
Ibhubesi
Cape Town
South
Africa
5/6
1HRT
Energulf
HRT HRTTullow
KuneneEnigma Petrotek
South
Africa2A
2B
3B/4B3A/4A
3B
4B
Shell
Anadarko
Thombo
Sungu
IBHUBESI GAS PROJECT (IGP)
Sasol
Tullow
Orange Basin: Best estimate Prospective Resources of 22.5 Tcfgas in place, source: Petroleum Agency of South Africa
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Recoverable Gas
Volume(Bcf)
Recoverable Condensate
Volume (MMbbls)
Proved Reserves (1P) 210 1.7
Proved+Probable Reserves (2P) 540 4.3
Proved+Probable+PossibleReserves (3P)
915 7.3
1P reserves independently certified by MHA Petroleum Consultants in June 2013:
• 1P reserves of 210 Bcf relates to only 4 production tested wells - high certainty of recovery (P90 - 90% probability)
• Contained within 4 sand bodies that can be accessed by 4 to 9 wells to produce the P90 drainage area
2P Reserves:
• 540 Bcf 2P reserves represent the most likely (P50 - 50% probability) recoverable gas volumes from the 7 discovery wells
• High historical success rate, 7 of 11 wells discovered gas, suggests high probability for further discoveries
Prospective Resource:
• Significant upside within and outside the 3D data areas - geological studies identified estimated P50 unrisked Prospective Resource of over 8 Tcf
Unrisked Gross Prospective Resources (Bcf)
Reservoirs Low Best High
Sequence 14 (outside 3D)
4,360 6,369 9,082
Sequence 15 1,189 1,702 2,324
Kudu Sand 106 286 628
TOTAL 5,655 8,357 12,034
Source: MHA
Source: Forest Oil Corp
IGP: RESERVESF
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Technical studies to determine production profiles for a Phase 1 development completed by RPS:
• High quality reservoirs – porosities of 16-25% and permeability averaging 100mD and up to 400mD
• Production modelling estimated that an average well could produce in excess of 50 MMscf/d, with tubing size being the limiting factor on production rates
• Modelling demonstrates that these reserves and production rates are capable of delivering the following production plateaus:
• 40 MMscf/d (14.15 Bcf/year) for 12 years
• 80 MMscf/d (28.3 Bcf/year) for 6 years
Phase 2 Development:
• 2P reserves of 540 Bcf provide significant extension and/or expansion opportunities
• Phase 1 wells will increase understanding of reservoir performance, enabling upgrade of 2P/3P to 1P
IGP: PRODUCTION PROFILE
Phase 1 Reference Case
Phase 1 Production Cases
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High value domestic energy market:
• Dominated by base-load coal (85%)
• Peaking power provided by high cost, diesel-fuelled power plants
• Undercapacity and issues balancing supply/demand
• No domestic gas production available for power generation to national grid
Significant demand for gas-fired power generation:
• National utility Eskom seeking gas supply to convert Ankerlig Power Station on West Coast from diesel to gas from 2016
• Current cost of diesel into Ankerlig Power Plant equates to approximately US$22 – US$25 per Gj
• RSA government undertaking formal process to bring 2.6GW gas into the energy mix through IPPs by 2025, with Stage 1 (474MW) due for tender in Q4 2013
IGP provides only solution for near-term local gas supply
– alternative is high cost LNG imports:
• Advancing gas marketing discussions with Eskom
• Progressing opportunity with IPP developersSource: PetroSA
MARKET OPPORTUNITYF
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100
Km
Atlantis
Cape Town
Saldanha
2A, Ibhubesi Gas Project
Island Point
400KMExport Pipeline
Ankerlig Conversion -1,300MW turbine power plant n diesel
Onshore Receiving Station
IPP Option – new build 474MW gas-fired power station
DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTIndependent studies demonstrate viability of Phase 1 development
Phase 1 Development:
• Total production volume - 210 Bcf (1P reserves)
• Supply profile - 28.3 Bcf/year (average 80 MMscfd) 6 year plateau
• Sales point - Ankerlig Power Plant, Atlantis
• Field Development Plan - production wells tied to offshore platform and 400km offshore export pipeline to Atlantis
Economics and Funding:
• Phase 1 Capex: $1.2B - $1.4B
• Gas price of US$14-18/Gj (up to 55% cheaper than existing diesel fuel costs)
• This gas price delivers an economically attractive Phase 1 development and meets investment criteria for project financing
• Advanced discussions with Standard Bank – Reserves Base Lending, 70/30 debt/equity
• Significant interest likely from strategic equity investors
Phase 2 Development – Significant Leverage:
• Existing expansion/extension utilising 2P reserves (540 Bcf)
• Leverage existing production wells and capacity in existing pipeline
• Provides substantial positive impact on NPV
• Further gas discoveries on the Ibhubesi block and discoveries in region
• Pipeline becomes an infrastructure asset, not a project asset
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Well profile for Mopane based on existing well data
Current Works
• Expanded 8 core hole drilling program underway
• Drilling and logging of 2 core holes completed
Results to Date
• Excellent coal thickness and gas measurements
• Core holes MOP001A and MOP002A
• 128m Ecca Coal Package intersected, resulting in net coal packages of 38m each
• Gas content results of 3-9m3/ton
• Net coal thickness and gas contents over double that used to determine independent expert’s Best Estimate Gas-in-Place of 1.9 Tcf
Milestones
• Complete 8 well program
• Completion of desorption analysis & well testing
• Booking of a contingent resource Q4 2013
• Commence pilot production
MOPANE CBM PROJECTF
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MILESTONES / NEWS FLOWIbhubesi Gas Project
Reserves Certification June 2013 ✔
Independent Feasibility Study of Phase 1 Development June 2013 ✔
Field Development Plan and Basis of Design December 2013
Gas Marketing Agreements By December 2013
Funding/Partnering Agreements By December 2013
Commencement of FEED 1Q 2014
CBM
Mopane Drilling Results 3Q & 4Q 2013
CBM Contingent Resource 4Q 2013
Concept Select / Basis of Design
Front End Engineering &
DesignProject Execution
VAR FIDH2 2013 2014 2015
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WORLD CLASS PARTNERSSunbird has assembled world leaders to assist in delivering value:
Role Partner
Certification of reserves
Sub-surface development options and production profiles
Surface facilities, engineering designs and project costs
Environmental assessment and approvals
Gas marketing and project economics
Corporate and financial advisors
Joint venture partner
Proposed off-take partner
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Relative to its peer group, Sunbird is undervalued based on size of 2P reserveSunbird at EV of $0.83/boe vs ASX offshore peers EV of $16.3/boe
PEER VALUATION
EV/ 2P Reserves
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Ave: $16.3 /boe
EV/2P - African Offshore (left axis)
2P Reserves (right axis)
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Source: Argonaut
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Focused on achieving major project and commercial milestones from its large scale gas projects
• Proven certified reserves with independent study confirming viability of Phase 1 development
• Ibhubesi Gas Project technical studies and gas market negotiations progressing
• Mopane CBM – complete 8 core hole drilling program > book contingent resource > pilot production to demonstrate flow rates
• Clear path ahead, near term target milestones to build asset / company value
• Funded to achieve key milestones; advancing project funding/partnering strategy
• Significant upside compared to peers
Sunbird delivering value from its large scale gas reserves
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INVESTMENT SUMMARYF
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SUNBIRD ENERGY LTD
www.sunbirdenergy.com.au
Kerwin RanaChairman
+27 11 484 5005
Will BarkerManaging Director
+61 9463 3260
CONTACT
Production testing of the A-K2 well Ibhubesi Gas Field in 2000
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DisclaimerThis presentation (Presentation) has been prepared by Sunbird Energy Ltd (Sunbird). This Presentation is not a prospectus or a product disclosure statement under the Corporations Act and has not been, nor is it required to be, lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). Nothing in this Presentation should be considered as a solicitation, offer or invitation in any place where, or to any person to whom, it would not be lawful to make such an offer or invitation.
Certain statements contained in this presentation, including information as to the future financial or operating performance of Sunbird and its projects, are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements: • are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by Sunbird, are inherently subject to significant technical, business,
economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties and contingencies; • involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from estimated or anticipated events or results reflected in such
forward-looking statements; and • may include, among other things, statements regarding targets, estimates and assumptions in respect of production and prices, operating costs and results, capital expenditures,
reserves and resources and anticipated flow rates, and are or may be based on assumptions and estimates related to future technical, economic, market, political, social and other conditions.
Ibhubesi Gas ProjectSunbird has executed an agreement to acquire a 76% stake in the IGP (Block 2A) from Forest Oil Corporation and The Anschutz Overseas Corporation which will give Sunbird the right to develop and operate the IGP, subject to approval of a transfer of title from the South African Department of Mineral Resources.
Forward Looking StatementSunbird disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise.
The words “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “indicate”, “contemplate”, “target”, “plan”, “intends”, “continue”, “budget”, “estimate”, “may”, “will”, “schedule”, “potential”, “opportunity” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements.
All forward-looking statements made in this presentation are qualified by the foregoing cautionary statements. Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and accordingly investors are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein.
No representation or warranty is or will be made by any person (including Sunbird and its officers, directors, employees, advisers and agents) in relation to the accuracy or completeness of all or part of this document, or any constituent or associated presentation, information or material (collectively, the Information), or the accuracy, likelihood of achievement or reasonableness of any projections, prospects or returns contained in, or implied by, the Information or any part of it. The Information includes information derived from third party sources that has not necessarily been independently verified.
The reserves and contingent resource estimates used in this announcement were compiled by Tim Hower of MHA Petroleum Consultants LLC and are consistent with the definitions of proved, probable, and possible hydrocarbon reserves and resources that appear in the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) Listing Rules. Mr Hower is qualified in accordance with the requirements of ASX listing rule 5.11 and has consented to the use of the reserves and resource figures in the form and context in which they appear in this announcement.
Subject to any obligations under applicable laws, regulations or securities exchange listing rules, Sunbird disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the Information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions. Nothing contained in the Information constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. The Information does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Before making an investment decision, each recipient of the Information should make its own assessment and take independent professional advice in relation to the Information and any action taken on the basis of the Information.
DISCLAIMERF
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