superconductivity and electric power: several future scenariosw2agz.com/library/climate change/doe...

Powering ProgressEPRI

P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review

23 July 1997

SuperconductivitySuperconductivityand Electric Power:and Electric Power:

Several Future ScenariosSeveral Future ScenariosPaul M. GrantPaul M. Grant

EPRIEPRIDOE Peer Review WorkshopDOE Peer Review Workshop

23 July 199723 July 1997



23 July 1997

What is Electricity?What is Electricity?

Electricity is the most efficient and convenient means mankind has found to transport energy throughout his habitat….



23 July 1997

ElectricityElectricityand the Quality of Lifeand the Quality of Life

Emerging

Developing

DevelopedFSUs

log [ per capita GDP ]

log

[ per

cap

itaE

lect

rici

ty G

ener

atio

n]

Persian Gulf

?? Electricity directly Electricity directly related to standard of related to standard of living in most of the living in most of the worldworld

?? Enormous increase in Enormous increase in electricity usage seen electricity usage seen for the 21st centuryfor the 21st century



23 July 1997

Electricity & Electricity & QoLQoL::Asian SceneAsian Scene

AustraliaNew

ZealandJapan

SingaporeHong KongTaiwan

S. KoreaMalaysia

Thailand0

2500

5000

7500

10000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

GDP/capita (US$)

kW

h/c

ap

ita

China

Cambodia

Vietnam

PhilippinesIndonesia

Laos



23 July 1997

ElectricityElectricity& Energy Conservation& Energy Conservation

E/GNP (index: 1900=100) Electricity (%)

E/GNP ratio

Electricityfraction

Source: Electricity in the American Economy, Sam H. Schurr, et al., 1990

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

50

40

30

20

10

150

130

110

90

70

50

Electricity is the most efficient and convenient meansmankind has found to transport energy throughout his habitat….



23 July 1997

Electricity Electricity --The Bottom LineThe Bottom Line



23 July 1997

US Energy Flow US Energy Flow -- 19951995



23 July 1997

US Electricity Flow US Electricity Flow -- 19941994

1 Quad = 0.29 TkWh

0.28 TkWh

0.15 TkWh

3.24 TkWh



23 July 1997

Electricity Prices: 1995Electricity Prices: 1995US & Asia (¢US/kWh)US & Asia (¢US/kWh)

5.7 6.47.4 7.4

4.7

1.9

19

9

02468

101214161820

IndonesiaPhilippinesMalaysiaThailandIndiaChinaJapanUS

US: $324 BWorld: $1.3 T



23 July 1997

U.S. ElectricityU.S. ElectricityProduction/Loss SummaryProduction/Loss Summary

TkWh % in T&D Lossand In-Plant

Use

Revenue@

$0.10/kWh(B$)

No. of 500 MWPower PlantEquivalents

Capital Cost@ $800/kW

(B$)

Total 3.24 324 740 296

T&DLosses

0.28 8% 28 63 25

In-PlantUsed

0.15 5% 15 35 14



23 July 1997

The Electricity ParadigmThe Electricity Paradigm

?? Generation/StorageGeneration/Storage

?? Transmission/DistributionTransmission/Distribution

?? Delivery/End UseDelivery/End Use



23 July 1997

The Electricity ParadigmThe Electricity Paradigmand and SuperconductivitySuperconductivity

?? Generation/StorageGeneration/Storage•• Generators, SMES, FlywheelsGenerators, SMES, Flywheels

?? Transmission/DistributionTransmission/Distribution•• Cables, Transformers, Cables, Transformers, FCLsFCLs

?? Delivery/End UseDelivery/End Use•• Motors, ElectromagnetsMotors, Electromagnets



23 July 1997

SuperconductivitySuperconductivityand Efficiencyand Efficiency

1994 2014@ 2%/yr

2014Plants Saved

0.2%Penetration

4× EfficiencyTotal 740 360

T&D Losses 63 31 11

In-House Use 35 17 6



23 July 1997

The Electricity ParadigmThe Electricity Paradigmand and DeregulationDeregulation

?? Generation/StorageGeneration/Storage•• GenCo GenCo

–– DeregulatedDeregulated, Open Market, Commodity Bidding, Open Market, Commodity Bidding

?? Transmission/DistributionTransmission/Distribution•• TranCoTranCo

–– RegulatedRegulated, , ISOsISOs, Stewardship?, Stewardship?

?? Delivery/End UseDelivery/End Use•• ServCoServCo

–– DeregulatedDeregulated, , MultiUtility MultiUtility ((ElecElec, Gas, Telecom,…), Gas, Telecom,…)



23 July 1997

ElectricityElectricity--Transportation AnalogyTransportation Analogy

Electricity Transportation

? Fuel

? Generation

? Natural Resources

? Manufacturing/Agriculture

? Transmission Electrons? Distribution

? Interstate Highways Trucks? Regional Freeways

? End Uses? Lighting? Rotating Machinery? Appliandes

? Retail Sales? Home Depot? Sears? Safeway



23 July 1997

Electricity TransmissionElectricity Transmissionand and DeregulationDeregulation

EPRI1980 1990 1980 1990

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Explosive Growth in Explosive Growth in Bulk Power TransactionsBulk Power Transactions

Billions of DollarsBillions of Dollars

Four-fold increase in a decadeFour-fold increase in a decade

EPRIEPRI

?? Public Public Stake in Stake in Viable GridViable Grid

?? Freeway Freeway System System AnalogyAnalogy

?? Who’s in Who’s in Charge?Charge?



23 July 1997

California AB 1890California AB 1890SummarySummary

?? Implements electricity deregulation and Implements electricity deregulation and mandates CEC to set up RD&D programmandates CEC to set up RD&D program

?? CEC RD&D Program MissionCEC RD&D Program Mission•• “Public interest RD&D activities to advance “Public interest RD&D activities to advance

energy science or technology not adequately energy science or technology not adequately provided by competitive and regulated provided by competitive and regulated markets”markets”

?? Funded by utilities and access rate levyFunded by utilities and access rate levy•• $62 M/yr$62 M/yr



23 July 1997

California AB 1890California AB 1890RD&D Focus AreasRD&D Focus Areas

?? Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy?? Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency

•• Superconductivity?Superconductivity?

?? Environmental ProtectionEnvironmental Protection?? Strategic Energy ResearchStrategic Energy Research

•• Superconductivity?Superconductivity?



23 July 1997

Gas or Electricity?Gas or Electricity?Pipes or Wires?Pipes or Wires?



23 July 1997

North American CHNorth American CH44There’s Lots of ItThere’s Lots of It

EPRI

Natural Gas IndustryNatural Gas IndustryEstimates of Remaining ReservesEstimates of Remaining Reserves

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20001975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

24002400

20002000

16001600

12001200

800800

400400

00

3D Seismic Imaging3D Seismic Imaging

EPRI

TcfTcf

TrendlineTrendlineGRIPGC

3D SeismicImaging PlusDirectionalDrilling

50 Years at‘97 Prices!



23 July 1997

Natural Gas:Natural Gas:Monthly Price FluctuationsMonthly Price Fluctuations



23 July 1997

Electricity from GasElectricity from Gas

Gas Turbine

Steam Turbine

Generator

CombinedCycle Gas Turbine(Aeroderived)

>60% TE,$500/kW

GE, ABB,Hitachi



23 July 1997

Distributed Generation:Distributed Generation:US &EuropeUS &Europe

?? Use widespread NG pipeline networkUse widespread NG pipeline network?? Generation plants sited locallyGeneration plants sited locally

•• Community of 60,000:Community of 60,000: 5050--100 MW100 MW•• Subdivision of 1Subdivision of 1--2000:2000: 33--5 MW5 MW•• Single Family Dwelling:Single Family Dwelling: 2020--30 kW30 kW

(100,000(100,000 btubtu/hr)/hr)

?? Some level of storage requiredSome level of storage required?? “Loosely” connected to grid“Loosely” connected to grid



23 July 1997

Distributed Generation:Distributed Generation:ApproachesApproaches

?? Internal Combustion (GRI)Internal Combustion (GRI)

?? “Micro“Micro--turbines” (EPRI)turbines” (EPRI)

?? Solid Oxide Fuel CellsSolid Oxide Fuel Cells



23 July 1997

Power by HTSC:Power by HTSC:Middle EastMiddle East



23 July 1997

Power by HTSC:Power by HTSC:North AmericaNorth America

? Two Wheeling Scenarios:

• Hudson Bay Hydo Power into New England/New York

• Vera Cruz Gas Fields to Texas



23 July 1997

Power by HTSC:Power by HTSC:AsiaAsia

Location of Asian Gas Fieldsand Major Energy Use Centers



23 July 1997

Power by HTSC:Power by HTSC:Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia



23 July 1997

The The SuperconductingSuperconductingElectricity Pipe!Electricity Pipe!

I-V

Ground

Structural Support

SuperconductingElectricityPipeline

ThermalInsulation

ElectricalInsulation

Superconductor(-V)

Superconductor(+V)

+VI

LiquidNitrogen

?? Total Total Cryo Cryo SystemSystem

?? Power: Power: 5 GW dc5 GW dc

?? Cost: Cost: < Gas, HVDC < Gas, HVDC > 500 Miles> 500 Miles



23 July 1997

Operating ParametersOperating Parameters

Capacity 50 kA, ±50 kV; %GMW

Length 1610 km

Temperature Rise,1 K every 10 km, 65 K,1 W/m heat input

21,600 liters LN2/hr,100 kW coolers, 120gal/min

Vacuum 10-5-10-4 torr 10 stations/10 km need200 kW



23 July 1997

Gas/HVDC ComparisonGas/HVDC Comparison

Marginal Cost of Electricity (Mid Value Fuel Costs)

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Miles

c/kW

h

LVDC ($5.5/kA-m @ 65K)

LVDC ($10/kA-m @ 77K)

HVDC

gas pipeline

superconductivity and electric power: several future scenariosw2agz.com/library/climate change/doe...

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