Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone

Alex C.Y. Yeung1, Aleksey Paltsev2, Abby Daigle3, Peter N. Duinker4, Irena F. Creed2,5

1 Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada2 Department of Biology, Western University, London, ON, Canada3 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada4 School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Faculty of Management, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada5 School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada

Supplementary material

Section 1. Descriptions of annual trends of the concentrations of major hazardous air pollutants in the

Canadian boreal zone from 1980-2015.

The past monitoring of hazardous air pollutants by the National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS)

Network in the boreal has been relatively continuous for numerous criteria air contaminants. They

include sulphur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ground-level ozone (O3)

and airborne particulate matter with a mass median diameter less than 10 µm or 2.5 µm (PM10 and

PM2.5). Although the post-1980 trends of these four air pollutants across Canada have already been

documented (Wood 2012; Brook et al. 2014), they may not be directly assumed for the boreal, given

the greater geographic separation between boreal and non-boreal (and mostly urban) air monitoring

stations. Therefore, we compiled data on the ambient air concentrations of these major pollutants at

stations within the boreal zone collected by NAPS (available from Environment and Climate Change

Canada 2016c), in order to describe their annual trends from 1980 to 2015.

In the 1980s, SO2, NO2, and O3 concentrations in the boreal were monitored mostly by a small number

of stations in Alberta and Quebec (see Fig. S1a-c). The declining trends of annual SO2 and NO2

concentrations at these stations from 1980 to 2000 are consistent with the ones across Canada (Wood

2012; Brook et al. 2014). Annual average PM2.5 concentrations in most of western boreal were

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estimated to experience increases of up to 66% during 1990-2013, whereas those in Taiga Shield East

exhibited a decreasing trend (Fig. 2 in West et al. 2016). The boreal-wide mean concentrations of the

four pollutants appear to be fairly constant since 2000 (SO2: ~ 1.5 ppb; NO2: ~ 66 ppb; O3: ~25 ppb;

PM2.5: 4.5 µg m-3; Fig. S1). The highest concentrations of these pollutants tended to be recorded in

cities or near major emitters (e.g., Edmonton, AB; Temiscaming, QC). Other non-NAPS observations

revealed distinct trends in air quality within the Athabasca Oil Sands region, Alberta. NO2 increased

significantly in the eastern part of the region around 1998-2014, probably due to increased mining

production of bitumen, as well as urban and industrial developments (e.g., McLinden et al. 2012, 2016;

Bari and Kindzierski 2015); however, no significant changes were observed for SO2, O3 and PM2.5 (Bari

and Kindzierski 2015). Emissions of some of these pollutants typically increase sharply after boreal

wildland fires, which could last for days to months, usually during the fire season from April to August

(e.g., Simpson et al. 2011; Brook et al. 2014; Bytnerowicz et al. 2016).

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Fig. S1. Long-term trends in the average annual concentrations of four major hazardous air pollutants in boreal Canada (1980-2015), including (a)

sulfur dioxide (SO2), (b) nitrogen dioxide (NO2), (c) ground-level ozone (O3), and (d) fine particles with ≤ 2.5 mm diameter, measured by tapered

element oscillating microbalance (PM2.5 – TEOM), and the corresponding number of boreal monitoring stations with annual average records

within the National Air Pollution Surveillance network. Note that the PM2.5 data presented are unadjusted by bias potentially introduced by TEOM

measurements (see Brook et al. 2014). The dark line for each pollutant links the mean of concentrations of all stations with records in a given year,

and each grey line links the values of concentrations of a monitoring station across years. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada

(2016c).

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Table S1. Summary of the current understanding of how atmospheric change has affected the key ecosystem components of the Canadian boreal

zone at the (sub)ecozone level.

  Ecosystem condition and productivity

Biodiversity Soil and water Carbon (C) budget

Overarching questions

How does atmospheric change (AC) influence terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem conditions and productivity, which mediate the delivery of essential ecosystem goods and services?

How does AC influence the distribution pattern of species, and contribute to (sub)ecozone-scale species and population changes?

What are the general genotype- and population-climate relationships of commercially important tree species and (at-risk) major fauna, which may influence their future genetic diversity under future AC?

How does AC influence soil conditions, and water quantity and quality, which mediate the delivery of essential ecosystem goods and services?

How does AC influence the C balance of terrestrial (forests and permafrost) and freshwater ecosystems?

Current understanding

Terrestrial ecosystem:- No change or slight decrease in

most undisturbed forests under AC; increase in the northernmost, and the wetter parts of the southeastern boreal

- Warming-induced moisture deficit, nutrient limitations, and increased natural disturbances can (interact to) offset biomass and productivity gains under higher temperature and CO2 levels

- Lasting effects of increased fire activity on composition and productivity of future stands

- Complex relationships between AC and forest insect pest, and pathogen activity and outbreaks

- Reduced tree cover and productivity in parts of the northern boreal following permafrost thawing

Spatial pattern of species richness:- Species distributions of trees,

birds, and butterflies are affected more strongly by temperature than precipitation, mainly via seasonal greenness

Native non-invasive species:- Caribou: pervasive population

declines attributed to AC-driven changes in snow and ice cover, food availability, fires, parasites and diseases, and predators

- Polar bear: body condition and population declines in the Hudson Bay region are linked with increased ice-free period

- Birds: distribution patterns are better explained by temperature than precipitation; effects of changing water levels and fire activity are mediated by functional groups and habitat associations of

Soil conditions:- Increased soil temperature;

reduced moisture in some parts of western boreal

- Nitrogen loss from forest floor and increased concentrations of base cations after fires

Water quantity:- Streamflow: increased mid-

winter melt and earlier spring freshet; variable recent trends in boreal

- Lake volume: significant water loss in shallow lakes after droughts

- Ice cover: later freeze-up and earlier break-up

Water quality:- Variable long-term trends in

lake DOC concentration- Higher lake nutrient

concentrations after fires, and higher solute concentrations

Terrestrial ecosystem:- Managed forest and drought-stressed forest in the western boreal are becoming a C source- Variable C budget response to temperature and precipitation- Thaw-induced C release is controlled by temperature and soil moisture

Freshwater ecosystem:- Lake C emissions are largely determined by the quantity and quality of terrestrial-derived C export- Elevated fluvial export of C is driven by increasing temperature and precipitation- Higher GHG emissions and contribution of CH4 flux from the eastern boreal freshwaters- C budget highly variable among peatland types

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Freshwater ecosystem:- Thermal refuge for cold-water

fish species is reduced by warming in weakly and non-stratified lakes

- Increased lake fish Hg in certain parts of the boreal, likely due to enhanced Hg production and transport under AC

- Fire effects on lake ecosystems are dependent on lake trophic state, and post-fire DOC and nutrient inputs

- Variable effects of temperature and precipitation changes on peatland water levels across the boreal, as mediated by vegetation types and hydrologic regimes

species- Cyanobacteria: more frequent

eutrophication events in lake ecosystems under warmer and drought conditions

Native invasive species:- Mountain pine beetle:

outbreaks are associated with reduced cold mortality for successive winters; now established in some pine stands in the western boreal

- Smallmouth bass: northern range expansion under warming

Non-native species: limited large-scale effects of non-native insects, vascular plants, and fungi on native woody plants since the 1980s; expansion of non-native earthworms is generally limited by minimum winter temperature

Genetic diversity: more southern, warmer provenances for tree species are likely to be present in reforestation seed lots; changes in genetic diversity among wide-ranging vertebrates under AC are highly variable

after permafrost thawing

Table S2. Detailed key (potential) impacts of atmospheric change on other driving forces in the

Canadian boreal zone.

Effects of atmospheric change on driverDemand for Non-provisioning Ecosystem Services

- Changes in carbon storage and biodiversity (particularly the status of species at risk) can influence public opinion about the effects of atmospheric change, and hence their demand for non-provisioning ecosystem services.

- Changes in extreme precipitation pattern influence hydrologic regimes, and hence the demand for flood protection by communities, especially in flood-prone regions, and regions experiencing shortened return-periods of heavy rainfall events.

- The boreal will generally have an extended warm-weather season, which will change the demand for various touristic and recreational activities. For instance, demand for northern-boreal nature-based tourism and northern light viewing (Stewart et al. 2010; Lemelin and Dickson 2012) will likely increase, similarly for “last-chance tourism” (e.g., polar bear viewing) in landscapes undergoing rapid transformations under atmospheric change (Lemelin et al. 2010; Groulx et al. 2016). In contrast, demand for snow and ice-based activities will be expected to decrease in the more southern parts of the boreal (Rutty et al. 2017).

Demand for Provisioning Ecosystem Services

- Atmospheric change modulates tree biomass and productivity in forests and plantations, which can influence the demand for wood products. Of increasing importance are pulpwood derived from standing dead wood (Saint-Germain and Greene 2009; Mansuy et al. 2017), and harvest residues used as bioenergy feedstock (Smyth et al. 2017).

- The warming of, and increased nutrient loads to, reservoirs are likely to fuel higher rates of CH4

production, enhancing GHG emissions of hydropower operations (Deemer et al. 2016). This, and other ecological consequences (e.g., increases in fish Hg; Willacker et al. 2016) may lower the desirability of hydroelectric power as a renewable energy source relative to others.

- Changes in ice break-up, streamflow, and sedimentation regimes can affect the hydropower capacity and reliability of dam operations (Minville et al. 2009; Cherry et al. 2017).

- More-frequent summer low-flows can influence water withdrawals by the oil sands industry, and hence bitumen production in the Athabasca Oil Sands region. The environmental impacts of water withdrawals and toxic pollutant deposition can alter the public perception of and demand for petroleum products (e.g., bitumen, crude oil) produced from this region.

- Changes in fish nutritional value and concentrations of toxic chemicals driven by atmospheric change (see Taipale et al. 2016; Creed et al. 2018) can alter the demand for freshwater fish, especially from sensitive populations in northern communities, such as children and women of child-bearing age.

- The range shifts of wildlife (e.g., mammals) can cause the demand for hunting, harvesting, and subsistence food to also shift spatially (Browne and Hunt 2007). Changes in the upstream migration timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar Linneaus, 1758) to Newfoundland and Labrador rivers under warming conditions can shift the timing of demand for recreational fishing for this species (Dempson et al. 2017).

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Demographics and Societal Values

- The effects of atmospheric change on ecosystem condition and public health may drive a polarization of societal values regarding the use of extractable natural resources in the boreal (see Lachapelle et al. 2014). For instance, more people from the younger generations are likely to have a “biospheric value orientation”, preferring greater future usage of renewable energy sources and less of fossil fuels, and less consumption-driven lifestyles. Some people may still adopt a negligent attitude under atmospheric change and support a more extraction-based, carbon-intensive boreal economy and lifestyles, if they do not receive socially salient messages from atmospheric change communications (Groulx et al. 2014).

- More employment opportunities associated with the harvesting and processing of wood residues or dead wood, and service sectors may emerge in regions with increased natural disturbances. This can lead to demographic shifts in communities where harvesting and wood processing are (will become) the dominant industries.

- Values and attitudes of remote communities can respond differently to similar effects of atmospheric change. For instance, all-weather road construction to replace increasingly unstable winter roads can be viewed to offer more secure access to food and services, but it can also be negatively viewed to facilitate outmigration (Wolf et al. 2013).

- Some remote (Indigenous) communities may face higher risks of food safety and security under atmospheric change, as they may depend more on store-bought food than traditional fresh food items due to declining local food resources, shortened time for food preservation and winter transportation (Downing and Cuerrier 2011). Relocation of these communities may be necessary where conditions become overly uninhabitable, with socio-cultural implications such as the loss of culture and identity, disconnection with the land, depression, substance abuse, etc (Ford et al. 2010).

- Atmospheric change can facilitate the usage of forest biomass to substitute diesel for electricity generation in northern and remote communities. Indigenous communities can attain greater energy self-sufficiency, and benefit from forest-based bioenergy and employment opportunities arisen (Natural Resources Canada 2016).

- Atmospheric change presents opportunities for more exchanges between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge, which are likely of increasing importance to support Indigenous communities to continue to flourish. For instance, Indigenous communities can benefit from information on infrastructural stability, food and water security, and can contribute valuable ground information about ecosystem conditions, phenology, the presence of invasive species, etc, as environmental “sentinels” in remote areas (Brook et al. 2009; Parlee et al. 2014).

Governance and Geopolitics

- Atmospheric change influences how provincial, territorial, and federal governments would implement policies to reduce GHG emissions and to ensure sustainable economic development under the pan-Canadian framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change (currently not adopted by Saskatchewan) (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2016a). These policies would widely affect the development of resource extraction industries (e.g., forestry, oil and gas, mining, peat mining), energy production and use, carbon pricing, the building of more resilient (Indigenous) communities and infrastructure, etc.

- Atmospheric change has facilitated Canada to (re)embrace international climate governance with respect to policy commitments to atmospheric change mitigation. However, it may not result in Canada ratifying and implementing international agreements subsequent to said negotiations. For example, Canada first ratified but later withdrew from the Kyoto protocol; and in 2015, Canada ratified the Paris Agreement (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2016a).

- Atmospheric change may mount increasing pressure on Canada in fulfilling some ratified environment-related multilateral agreements affecting the boreal (e.g., the Convention of Biological Diversity and the 2020 Aichi Biodiversity Targets negotiated therein; Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears; Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES)) and bilateral agreements (e.g., Canada-United States Air Quality Agreement; Convention for the Protection of Migratory Birds in the United States and Canada).

- Increased intensity and frequency of natural hazards can challenge provincial and territorial governments, and municipalities, to invest more in mitigation, adaptation, and relief measures

(e.g., Hurlbert and Gupta 2016; Hope et al. 2016; Lemprière et al. 2017). In the case of mega-fires, coordination between provincial and territorial governments for firefighting, and cross-border cooperation and resource sharing between Canada and the United States (or other countries), may become more frequent.

- Different government levels and sectors of society can have divergent views on the development of natural resource industries, GHGs emissions management, healthcare system improvement, species-at-risk protection, etc, under (or in spite of) atmospheric change (see Tyrrell 2006; Mantyka-Pringle et al. 2015; Mildenberger et al. 2016). This could yield opportunities to co-operate, or breed tensions across the boreal (and Canada), when involving decentralized policy sectors such as forestry (Rayner et al. 2013), the delivery of health care for Indigenous peoples (Ford et al. 2010), and resource management concerning overlapping jurisdictions (e.g., water management in the Mackenzie River Basin) (Morris and de Loë 2016), etc.

- The projected increases in the prevalence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (see Berry et al. 2014) and influx of migrants for employment opportunities into the boreal will likely increase the need for economic, social, and health infrastructure.

Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

- Atmospheric change can incentivize natural resource industries to innovate to improve extraction efficiency, reduce carbon/environmental footprint, and abate toxic pollutants produced in their operations.

- The government, and many economic sectors, such as electricity generation, transportation, building infrastructure, and agriculture, will develop and adopt measures to reduce GHG emissions and enhance energy efficiency (see Environment and Climate Change Canada 2016b).

- Atmospheric change encourages investments in innovative and adaptive measures to maintain existing and/or develop new public, private, and industrial infrastructure. Infrastructural facilities of concern include (small-sized) drinking and wastewater treatment facilities affected by floods, droughts, increasing DOC and cyanobacterial blooms (e.g., Carrière et al. 2010; Brettle et al. 2015; Anderson et al. 2017; Gaur et al. 2018); roads, buildings, power lines and pipelines affected by landslides, ice melting, and wind gusts (e.g., Prowse et al. 2009; Cheng et al. 2014; Cloutier et al. 2016; Hori et al. 2018); and near-shore facilities affected by storm surges and extratropical cyclones in the northeastern boreal (Batterson and Liverman 2010; Masson 2014).

Table S3. Postulated changes in the emissions of greenhouse gas and hazardous air pollutants as

mediated by government policies and societal attitudes towards atmospheric change for the analysis of

future scenarios of the Canadian boreal zone in 2050.

1. Precautionary attitude

(status quo)

Canada will reach the 2030 target of reducing GHG emissions to 30% below 2005 levels

(i.e., 523 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent), as part of an intended nationally determined

contribution to UNFCCC (Government of Canada 2017). Canada will continue to undertake

multiple regulatory actions to limit GHG and pollutant emissions. Atmospheric

concentrations and deposition of toxic pollutants in the boreal will be steady or slightly

decrease compared to current levels. Hydroelectricity development will be considerably

expanded, particularly in the Taiga Shield and Boreal Shield (Lee et al. 2012; Cohen et al.

2015; Bring et al. 2017), and the use of bioenergy and other renewable sources of energy will

also grow. Oil sands production and accompanying acidifying emissions will continue to

grow (Cho et al. 2017). However, it will be subject to more stringent GHG emission caps,

and will no longer be subsidized. Increased coordination between government levels and

Indigenous communities will enhance local to regional preparedness for the gradual effects

of atmospheric change, and some extreme events and natural disasters. The rates of natural

resource extraction (e.g., forest harvesting, mining) will increase slightly with the population

growth rate in Canada, and policies institutionalizing (community-based) adaptive natural

resource management (e.g., assisted tree migration) will be implemented.

2. Negligent attitude The rates of population growth in Canada and the world will continue to increase

exponentially. Canada and the major emitting countries will have progressively more carbon-

intensive economies, and will make very little to no progress in reducing their GHG

emissions. Anthropogenic emissions of toxic pollutants, such as heavy metals, from other

source regions will be unabated, therefore their transboundary transport will result in higher

surface air concentrations and deposition of these pollutants, especially in the northern boreal

(Durnford et al. 2010; Dastoor et al. 2015). Oil sands extraction in the Athabasca region will

be doubled in volume relative to 2015 levels (Rosa et al. 2017), and will become one of the

biggest contributing industries to Canada’s Gross Domestic Product. Virtually no

coordinated efforts will be made across the boreal to step up mitigation and adaptation

measures in response to the escalating impacts of atmospheric change on ecosystem and

human health (see Bush et al. 2014). Due to the lack of government foresight, industrial

innovations, and social impetus, responses to atmospheric-mediated natural disasters (e.g.,

fires, floods, landslides, heat waves) will be mainly ad hoc, incremental, and modified from

hindsight.

3. Proactionary attitude Canada will follow an ambitious deep decarbonization pathway (see Bataille et al. 2015;

Potvin et al. 2015). Transformational government policies and significant technological

advances will enable a nationwide transition to (near) zero-emission transport fuels, a

virtually decarbonized heavy industry, and a low-carbon economy. Most carbon released

from oil and gas production will be captured and stored. Renewable sources of energy and

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biomass will generate almost all the electricity in Canada. In particular, wind turbines will be

widely installed in Newfoundland and parts of the Boreal Plain, in areas with high wind

capacity factor and nearby major demand centres for electricity (Harvey 2013). The

expansion of roads into the northern boreal will be strategically planned to minimize habitat

fragmentation, fire risks, and other forms of environmental degradation (Laurance et al.

2014). Land-use management and natural resource-based development will become mainly

carbon-based, with the primary goal of minimizing GHG emissions. Relevant measures will

be well implemented with coordinated efforts across all government levels, industries, the

general public, and Indigenous communities. Atmospheric emissions of GHG and toxic

pollutants by major emitters in the world will have slowed, and will begin to decrease (van

Vuuren et al. 2011).

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