support for grower networks by osu ippc - online ipm weather data and pest models leonard coop &...
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Support for grower networks by OSU Support for grower networks by OSU IPPC - Online IPM weather data and IPPC - Online IPM weather data and
pest modelspest models
Leonard Coop & Paul JepsonLeonard Coop & Paul Jepson
Integrated Plant Protection CenterIntegrated Plant Protection Center
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University
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Outline IPPC Talk - Sept 12, 2006
• Title: "Support for grower networks by OSU IPPC - Online IPM weather data and pest models"
– 1. Brief history/what we are about as a grant-funded entity
– 2. Some issues and problems inherent in using weather-driven services
– 3. New and future IPPC products including quality assurance procedures, new models, custom degree-day maps, and insect and disease model forecasts
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Len CoopLen Coop - IPPC, Oregon State University - IPPC, Oregon State University Christopher DalyChristopher Daly, Director, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State , Director, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State UniversityUniversityAlan FoxAlan Fox – Foxweather, LCC – Foxweather, LCC Gary Grove - Gary Grove - Washington State University Washington State University Doug GublerDoug Gubler – University California – University California Paul Jepson – Paul Jepson – Director, IPPC, Oregon State University Director, IPPC, Oregon State University Ken JohnsonKen Johnson – Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University – Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University Walter MahaffeeWalter Mahaffee – USDA-ARS – USDA-ARS William PfenderWilliam Pfender – USDA-ARS – USDA-ARS Fran PierceFran Pierce - Director, Center for Precision Agricultural Systems, Washington - Director, Center for Precision Agricultural Systems, Washington State UniversityState UniversityJoyce StrandJoyce Strand - University of California - Information Systems Manager and - University of California - Information Systems Manager and MeteorologistMeteorologistCarla S. Thomas -Carla S. Thomas -National Plant Diagnostic Network, University California National Plant Diagnostic Network, University California
W IPMC Weather WorkgroupW IPMC Weather Workgroup
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Weather Networks – How Weather Networks – How
representative?representative?• Dec 05 – where to put next PAWS/agweathernet stations – current area represented each station
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Weather Networks – How Weather Networks – How
representative?representative?• Dec 05 – where to put next PAWS/agweathernet stations – current area represented each station
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Weather Networks – How to share Weather Networks – How to share
data?data?• Campbell-based CPCRC 6 station network – already in publicly available MesoWest database
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Weather Network Checklist – What to look for:Weather Network Checklist – What to look for:✔ Weather station hardware – reliability, uptime, product lifetime, etc. - $$
✔ Dedicated hardware maintenance – response time - $$
✔ Type of data transfer to collection points: 1-way or 2-way; modem, cell phone, radio, satellite, internet, or?
✔ Database issues – how are the data from various stations stored and accessed? Are missing data auto-resynchronized from sensor to user: station<->gateway<->server<->client partially or completely?
✔ Is there some type of local delivery and support software (models?) – e.g. the owner's PC - $
✔ Does the network involve standardized internet data collection and delivery or “Public Aggregation” (e. g. Missoula & Utah NWS Mesowest)
✔ Is there “added value” regarding model development and delivery – such as missing data estimation, intelligent spatial interpolation, integrated forecasts, and Extension service/other expert advising including validations?
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IPPC: degree-day calculator and models integrated with IPPC: degree-day calculator and models integrated with 6,300+ weather stations6,300+ weather stations
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IPPC daily online degree-day maps: 48 statesIPPC daily online degree-day maps: 48 states
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Prototype Products in Development 2. Generic disease risk models – initially for NPDN epidemiologists
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Prototype Products in Development 2. Generic disease risk models – initially for NPDN epidemiologists
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OSU IPPC IPM models – featuresOSU IPPC IPM models – features
• IPPC - automated PRISM climate map + nearby station based max-min temperature estimation of missing data
• IPPC - use numerous weather networks; higher chance of nearby stations to help estimate missing data
• Are missing/bad data feeding the models? How will you know? Need to have option to show the data with model outputs
• Pest models database – working with researchers, Extension to develop, maintain, and respond to local user needs for all the models
• Forecasts: current – PNW weather.com 10-day, NWS zone 7-day max-min forecasts full USA
• IPPC/Fox weather 2007 – new research project to estimate missing data(hourly temps, RH, precip, wind speed) using Day 0 forecast data
• Forecast models: 2007 – 3 to 5-day site-specific forecasts for all pest models (IPM weather workgroup grant w/Fox weather, other researchers)
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Additional Slides (not Additional Slides (not used in the 15 minute used in the 15 minute presentation) follow:presentation) follow:
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Online Weather Data from IPPC - history
• 1995-6 “bootstrap” era – initial products for Oregon converted from Pascal DOS programs into UNIX
• 1996-1999 PNW 3-state era, some Areawide Codling Moth funding, initial WR IPM funding
• 1999-2004 WR IPM grants, support OR grower networks and disease models, 5 state NW region (2003: 900+ weather stations, 45 pest models)
• 2004-present Focus on plant disease models, expand to national status (2006: 6300+ stations, 49 pest models), NPDN funding
• 2006-2009 Focus on forecasting for disease models, NRI Plant Biosecurity funding
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Model Runs0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Calculator/model usage per year
1999
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005 (est)
•Degree-day/Phenology Calc./Model Usage – PNWPEST.ORG •Example 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005-Oct24•================================================================================•Degree-Day Calculator generic 454 3219 6048 5162 7761 7599•codling moth [apple & pear] 83 1123 2019 2053 2428 1827•fire blight [apple & pear] 17 300 699 1115 778 560•
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Oregon Annual Precipitation
Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961-90
Full PRISM ModelMax ~ 3300 mm
Simple distance interpolation
Max ~ 7900 mm
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PRISM Knowledge PRISM Knowledge BaseBase
• Elevation influence on climate
• Terrain-induced climate transitions (topographic facets, moisture index)
• Coastal effects
• Two-layer atmosphere and topographic index
• Orographic effectiveness of terrain
• Persistence of climatic patterns (climatically-aided interpolation)
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PRISM International Climate MappingPRISM International Climate Mapping
Western Canada
Pacific BasinChina
Taiwan
MongoliaEuropean Alps
Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity Maps: all maps are state-of-Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity Maps: all maps are state-of-the-art, and are used as the standard for evaluation of other the-art, and are used as the standard for evaluation of other
methodsmethods
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At a glance: At a glance: current, normal, deviations Jan 1 to date current, normal, deviations Jan 1 to date
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Now available nation-wideNow available nation-wide e.g. 50 Degree threshold – Pennsylvania Jan. 1 – June 13, 2005e.g. 50 Degree threshold – Pennsylvania Jan. 1 – June 13, 2005
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Hood River, OR – tree fruitHood River, OR – tree fruit1. 2 km resolution2. 100 m resolution3. 30 m res. - online DD mapping tool
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Prototype Products in Development 1. DPEP (Date of Phenological Event Prediction) maps
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Products in Development 3. Site specific forecast models
GFS forecast model (up to 10 days) -> CALMET + MtnRTemps -> FL Leaf Wetness (orig. Kim et al. - Iowa
State) -> numerous plant disease risk models at ca 2 KM resolution
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ConclusionsConclusions
• IPM decision making resides with the grower: decision aids need to be resolved to the field/farm scale
• Advanced climate analysis is an effective starting point for development of tools and services
• Development model in OR, PNW, West, has recruited large numbers of growers, and is evolving
• Plant disease models, supported by improved forecasting, are in development; some released
• WIPM Center Weather Workgroup is focusing on standards, quality control, and delivery of comprehensive regional and national services
• GIS-based tools offer scope for integration of other IPM decision tools relating to diagnostics, IPM options, and spatially resolved risk and risk mitigation factors