support for the alignment of albanian statistics with eu standards
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Support for the Alignment of Albanian Statistics with EU standards. Improvement of Annual GDP estimation by production side and the new NOE estimation. Elirjeta Pepaj 20 February 2014. Content:. 1. Background of IPA 2007 2. Activity 1: GDP by production approach - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Support for the Alignment of Albanian Statistics with EU standards
Improvement of Annual GDP estimation by production
side and the new NOE estimation
Elirjeta Pepaj
20 February 2014
Content:Content:
1. Background of IPA 2007
2. Activity 1: GDP by production approach
2.1. New data sources and Improvement of existing
sources
2.2. Development of new methodologies of GDP
3. Activity 4: Exhaustivenness
3.1. Eurostat Tabular Approach
3.2. Method and sources by type of exhaustivenness
3.3. Labour Input method
3.4. Franz method
4. Future work
1. Background of IPA 2007- Project1. Background of IPA 2007- Project
General Objectives: GDP (P)-module
1) to identify and to improve new and existing statistical data sources and methodology for more reliable Annual National Accounts estimates (A.1)
2) to improve the method and coverage of the non-observed economy (NOE) in order to ensure exhaustiveness (A.4)
2. Activity 1 (A.1) 2. Activity 1 (A.1) GDP by production approach (1/4)GDP by production approach (1/4)
Development of new surveys and use of new data sources:
Design and inclusion of “Statistical Annex” to the annual financial statements of institutional units better estimation of Output (P1) and Intermediate Consumption (P2).
Two new surveys : 1. For commercial banks
2. For insurance activities
Use of Census of Non-Agriculture Enterprises 2010 data updated Business Register improved estimations by giving a better picture of whole economy and reducing the number of enterprises without information.
2. Activity 1 (A.1) 2. Activity 1 (A.1) GDP by production approach (2/4)GDP by production approach (2/4)
2. Activity 1 (A.1) 2. Activity 1 (A.1) GDP by production approach (3/4)GDP by production approach (3/4)
Improvements on statistical techniques:
Detail classification of the size of Small enterprises by employment and turnover
Implementation of new techniques of partial imputations and grossing up procedures based on output per employment
Quality improvements of the estimations based on deeper analyses of ratios:
Output / Intermediate Consumption Value Added / Employees (Productivity)
2. Activity 1 (A.1) 2. Activity 1 (A.1) GDP by production approach (4/4)GDP by production approach (4/4)
Improvements on methodology side:
Implementation of new method of estimation of financial activities (S12);
Estimation of FISIM in line with the requirements of Council regulation (EC) 448/1998 ;
Compilation of estimations in more detail level of NACE Rev 1.1 classification, passing from A25 branches in A60.
Improvement of NOE estimates by applying new methods and using new sources.
2. Activity 4 (A.4) 2. Activity 4 (A.4) NON OBSERVED ECONOMY (NOE)NON OBSERVED ECONOMY (NOE)
Identification of all types of NOE: based on EUROSTAT Tabular Approach framework where was determined
which types are possible to estimate in order to ensure better exhaustiveness;
Exhaustiveness adjustments by output GDP are done: By type By institutional sectors By activities
Eurostat Tabular Approach is important because: Provides a comprehensive and systematic assessment to ensure
exhaustiveness of NA; Facilitates cross-country comparisons of adjustments and methods to provide
similar level of coverage of NA.
EUROSTAT TABULAR APPROACH (N1-N7)
Not registeredNot registered
Producer deliberately
not registering
Producer not
register(illegal activity)
Producer not
required to register
Not SurveyedNot Surveyed Misreporting
Legal Producers
not surveyed
Registered entrepreneurs not surveyed
OtherOther
Misreporting by
Producers
Other statistical
deficiencies
N1 N2 N3 N4 N5 N6 N7
3. Activity 4. 3. Activity 4. Data sources and methods of NOEData sources and methods of NOE
Type of NOE
Description Method Sources
N1 Not register producer Labour input SBS, LFS, BR, administrative files
N2 Illegal actvities Quantity per price Undergoing IPA 2011 project
N3 Production of HH for own final use (agriculture and own construction)
Expert and supply based method
Agriculture data, HBS and SBS
N4 Legal persons Not surveyed Analyses and comparisons
SBS, BR, NA
N5 Enterpreneures Not surveyed
Analyses and comparisons
SBS, BR, NA
N6 Underreporting Franz and LIM SBS, LFS, BR
N7 Tips a fixed % of the turnover
HBS, NA
3. Activity 4. 3. Activity 4. Labour Input Method (LIM) Labour Input Method (LIM)
Incorporation of Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, as a new and appropriate source of information on employment in Albania, for the implementation of Labour Input Method to estimate N1 and N6 types of NOE;
Application of Labour Input Method for all branches, including private Health & Education as well (except Agriculture, Financial and Public Administration);
3. Activity 4. 3. Activity 4. Labour Input Method (LIM) Labour Input Method (LIM)
The LIM is bases on the following steps:
obtain estimates of the supply of labour input to GDP, for selected economic activity and size of enterprise, from a household labour force survey and/or other demographic sources;
obtain estimates of output per unit of labour input and value added per unit of labour input for the same activity and size breakdown from regular or special purpose enterprise survey;
multiply the labour input estimates by the per unit ratios to get output and value added for the activity and size categories
3. Activity 4:3. Activity 4:Methodological scheme of LIMMethodological scheme of LIM
Adjustment of sources For definitions, classifications and populations target
Employment estimates by employees and selfemployed, From stock to annual flows, From
persons to Jobs, Other adjustmentse)
Integration of sources
Demand side: Enterprises surveys and
administrative data
Supply side: Household surveys and
demografic sources
Comparison of labour input demand and supply side of employment
(unregistered employment)
Multiply by Value Added/Unit Labour
Corrected for underreporting
3. Activity 4 3. Activity 4 Types N3, N4 and N5Types N3, N4 and N5
Estimation for the first time of Own construction, N3 based on Households Budget Survey (HBS) data;
Analysis of differences between NA estimates and SBS data for the observed components: N4+N5;
the number of legal person or registered entrepreneurship that are included NA estimates but are not surveyed:
estimates done for conceptual adjustments or consistency check
3. Activity 4 Franz method3. Activity 4 Franz method
Application for the first time of Franz Method for Underreporting of Production (N6): The method is applied to SMS enterprises with more than one year life of activity
X - per-capita of value added resulted from the survey on enterprisesX - per-capita of value added resulted from the survey on enterprises
Control of coherencies between the income of the self-employed worker and compensation of employees
Control of coherencies between the income of the self-employed worker and compensation of employees
Per capita values corrected for underreporting of output is based on the hypothesis that the income of the self-employed worker of an enterprise should be equal at least to the average compensation of employees
Per capita values corrected for underreporting of output is based on the hypothesis that the income of the self-employed worker of an enterprise should be equal at least to the average compensation of employees
X’ – revaluated per-capita of production and value added
When the level of income of a self-employed workers is less then the level of compensations of employees the income is re-valuated and with the same amount also the production and value added is adjusted
X’ – revaluated per-capita of production and value added
When the level of income of a self-employed workers is less then the level of compensations of employees the income is re-valuated and with the same amount also the production and value added is adjusted
3. Activity 4 (A.4)3. Activity 4 (A.4)
After analyzing the methodologies/practices used in other countries and the possibilities to adjust them to the specific conditions of Albanian economy estimation of statistical deficiencies, N7 in:
Trade; Hotels and restaurants; Road passenger transport; Other personal services;
**The estimates are performed using an expert assessment of the percentage of tips based of the ratio used in neighbour countries and adopted for Albania.
Exhaustiveness adjustments by Exhaustiveness adjustments by Institutional SectorsInstitutional Sectors
N1 N2 N3 N4 N5 N6 N7
Non Financial Corporations(S11) 5.97 7.67 3.11 83.25 73.89
Financial Corporation (S12)
General Government (S13)
Households and NIPSH (S14,S15) 67.92 31.39 0.69 26.11
Total NOE adjustments by type 21.93 9.09 5.61 2.28 60.91 0.18 100.00
Summary of GVA Adjustments by types: Output Approach - For reference Year 2009
Total NOE Adjustments
by Institutional
Sectors
Institutional Sectors
%%
4. Further work/the way forward4. Further work/the way forward
Using of Census of Population 2011 data Use of back-casted LFS and HBS based on Population census results Measuring of Illegal activities (ongoing IPA 2011) Estimation of Onwer Ocupied Dwelling Services (ongoing IPA 2011, IMF) Use of SUT framework for NOE Improvement energy estimates (ongoing IMF) Constant price estimates (IPA 2009 and IMF) Introduction of NACE Rev 2 (ongoing) Implementation of new ESA 2010 (ongoing IPA 2011, IMF)
All of the above will impact GDP estimates and we consider this to be good international practice to publish all recent revisions in coordinated way in order not to confuse and mislead the users.
Thank You for Your Attention!Thank You for Your Attention!