supported employment counselors 2011 statewide training edgefield blackberry hall troutdale or...
TRANSCRIPT
Supported Employment Counselors2011 Statewide Training
Edgefield Blackberry HallTroutdale OR
Presenter
Malcolm G Boswell, Workforce AnalystWorkSource Portland Metro East
Employment Department
July 2011
The economy is a living, breathing system that mimics human nature, meaning it is not a robot, or a computer that follows a certain program. It doesn’t always follow the models and certainly does not subscribe to the saying “All things being equal”.
It usually reacts to the general sentiment and whims of the population.
The Economy
Recessions
• Recessions are a common part of any economy, they happen quite frequently and at relatively regular intervals.
• It is a time of change, “out with the old, in with the new” that varies in intensity depending on the nature of the recession.
• Recessions are regularly measured by the economic productivity (GDP). However, employment is an indicator that is gaining weight in estimating the beginning and ending of a recession.
Employment Trend 1946 - 2003 (000's)
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Employment Trend 1946 - 2003 (000's)
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United States
How long do recessions last?
Recessions are measured from peak economic growth to the trough (lowest point of economic downturn). The current recession is nearing 19 months but may be revised.
The average duration of recessions between 1945 and 2003
10 Months
The average duration of recessions between 1919 and 1945
17 Months
The average duration of recessions prior to 1919
22 Months
Last three recessions were characterized by their “Jobless Recovery” Causes of jobless recovery?
According to Lisa Smith who based her article on Jobless Recovery: The new normal, Yahoo Finance (Nov. 1, 2010), on Economist Nick Perna’s first studies on what he coined the Jobless recovery, some of the most significant causes for this new normal include:
•Structural changes in the US Economy
•Globalization
•Executive Compensation
•Consumers desire for lower cost goods
•Changes in technology and labor productivity
The demand for skills changes over time!
Causes of change include:
• Changes in technology• Changes in business strategies• Changes in the economy• Changes in consumer expectations
Uemployed Americans Find Old Jobs Require New Skillsby Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, for Manufacturing Business TechnologyOctober 11, 2010
“The jobs crisis has brought an unwelcome discovery for many unemployed Americans: Job openings in their old fields exist. Yet they no longer qualify for them. (emphasis added)
They're running into a trend that took root during the recession. Companies became more productive by doing more with fewer workers. Some asked staffers to take on a broader array of duties — duties that used to be spread among multiple jobs. Now, someone who hopes to get those jobs must meet the new requirements.
As a result, some database administrators now have to manage network security.
Accountants must do financial analysis to find ways to cut costs.
Factory assembly workers need to program computers to run machinery.”
Skill gap as a result of changes in technology
Typewriter Word Processor
Computer Internet
•Typing Speed
•Accuracy/ Grammar
•Typing Speed
•Accuracy/Grammar
•Use word processing software•Operate printer
•Use word processing software
•Use spreadsheet software
•Use desktop publishing
•Operate printer & peripherals
Computer Operator
Secretary
Admin Assistant
Typist
Clerk
Secretary
Word Processor
Secretary
Secretary
Admin Assistant
Web Designer
•Use word processing software
•Use spreadsheet software
•Use desktop publishing
•Use web page design software
•Use E-mail
•Use Internet
•Operate printer & peripherals
Skill gap as a result of re-organization(Business Strategies)
Position 1Secretary 2
F1a F1b F1c
F1d F1e
Position 2Secretary 1
F2a F2m F2n
F2p F2q F2r
Position 3Secretary 3
F3a F3c F3t
F3s
Position 4Exec Assistant
F1a F1b F1c
F1d F1e F2p
Position 3.aAdmin Clerk
F3a F3c F3t
F3s
F2r
F2m
F2n F2q
Green Skills The New Value Added Skills
Key Finding: Oregon has roughly 50,000 green jobs.
• 51,402 green jobs in 2008, spread across... • 5,025 employers• all major industry groups• 226 different occupations
• Represents about 3 percent of the employment in the private sector and state and local government
• To give perspective … this is roughly the same as the number of employees working in Oregon’s private hospitals.
Construction, wholesale and retail trade, and administrative and waste services account for about half of Oregon’s green jobs.
IndustryGreen
JobsPortion of All
Green JobsConstruction 8,676 17%Wholesale and Retail Trade 8,315 16%Administrative and Waste Services 7,074 14%Natural Resources and Mining 5,762 11%Professional and Technical Services 5,411 11%State and Local Government 5,063 10%Manufacturing 4,228 8%Leisure and Hospitality 2,260 4%Other Services 1,555 3%Educational and Health Services 1,353 3%Transportation and Warehousing 573 1%Utilities 403 Less Than 1%Information 354 Less Than 1%Management of Companies and Enterprises 252 Less Than 1%Financial Activities 123 Less Than 1% Total 51,402 100%
Key Finding: Many green jobs are in blue collar occupations.
Occupational GroupGreen
JobsPortion of All
Green JobsConstruction and Extraction 10,381 20%Production 6,512 13%Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 5,838 11%Transportation and Material Moving 5,255 10%Architecture and Engineering 4,360 8%Life, Physical, and Social Science 4,135 8%Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance
2,877 6%
Sales and Related 2,437 5%Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 2,233 4%Management 1,639 3%Office and Administrative Support 1,570 3%Protective Service 1,032 2%Education, Training, and Library 790 2%Business and Financial Operations 683 1%Food Preparation and Serving Related 513 1%Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
480 1%
Other 667 1% Total 51,402 100%
Green wage levels are spread across a wide spectrum, just like wages of all jobs.
Percent of Green Jobs by Wage Group
0%
5%
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30%
Under$10.00
$10.00 -$14.99
$15.00 -$19.99
$20.00 -$24.99
$25.00 -$29.99
$30.00 -$49.99
$50.00 ormore
Hourly Wage
Key Finding: Two-thirds of green jobs require no education beyond high school.
No Requirement32%
High School Graduate
32%
Associate Degree7%
Some College7%
Bachelor's or Graduate
18%
Other4%
Where the Minimum Education Level was specified
Green Jobs by Minimum Education Level Oregon, 2008
So, where are we now?
Brief Overview of today’s economy
Oregon unemployment has fallen more than2 percentage points since the peak of 11.6% in 2009, but still sits above the U.S. rate.
Oregon’s May Unemployment Rate In 2011: 9.3%
In 2010: 10.9%
In 2009: 11.6%
In 2008: 5.7%
This recession’s unemployment rate peaked at 11.6% in Oregon, slightly below the 12.1% of the early ‘80s.
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1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
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Oregon Unemployment Rate Typically Higher Than U.S.(Bars Represent NBER Recessions)
Oregon United States
Source: Oregon Employment Department and National Bureau of Economic Research
12.1% in December 1982 and January 1983
11.6% in May and June 2009
The unemployment rates in rural areas is still well above urban areas.
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or
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Oregon Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates
Non-Metro
Bend, Corvallis, Euguene, Medford and Salem
Portland
Similar to the trend in unemployment rates, the number of unemployed persons is declining.
Oregon’s May Unemployed Count:
In 2011: 185,540
In 2010: 216,162
In 2009: 231,821
In 2008: 110,601
Note: this decrease has nothing to do with individuals exhausting their unemployment insurance benefits.
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250,000
Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Unemployed Persons, Oregon Statewide, Seasonally Adjusted1999 to Present
Nearly 200,000 unemployed Oregonians is certainly nothing to celebrate.
179,201
Only 28,500 below year-ago levels.
Factors: steady in-migration; re-entrants to labor market; labor force growing faster than employment.
Note: this decrease has nothing to do with individuals exhausting their unemployment insurance benefits.
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110,000
160,000
210,000
260,000
Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09
Oregon Total UnemploymentNot Seasonally Adjusted
March 2009's 243,357 unemployed was the all-time record for Oregon.
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesEastern Oregon (Regions 12, 13 and 14) Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
Eastern Oregon Labor Force Covered Employment (Reported Jobs)
Eastern Oregon Unemployment Rate
* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Between 2007 and 2010 the Eastern Oregon (Regions 12, 13 and 14) area saw its labor force grow by 6.3% while losing 3.5% of its jobs.
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 5% while its number of jobs remained virtually unchanged
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Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesWillamette Valley / I - 5 Corridor (Regions 2, 3, 5, 15 plus Linn, Benton and Columbia Counties)
Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
Willamette Valley/I-5 Corridor Labor ForceCovered Employment (Reported Jobs) WV/I-5Willamette Valley/I-5 Corridor Unemployment Rate
* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Between 2007 and 2010 the Willamette Valey / I - 5 Corridor (Regions 2, 3, 5, 15 plus Benton, Columbia & Linn Counties) Area saw its labor force grow by 3.6% while reporting a decline of 7% of its jobs.
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 7.7% and lost just under 1% of its jobs.
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesOregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln & Tillamook Counties)
Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
Oregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln & Tillamook) Labor Force
Covered Employment (Reported Jobs) Oregon Coast
Oregon Coast Unemployment Rate
* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Between 2007 and 2010 the Oregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln & Tillamook Counties) area saw its labor force grow by almost 4% while losing nearly 7% of its jobs.
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 11% and added 3.5% more jobs.
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Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesCentral Oregon (Regions 9 & 10)
Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
Central Oregon (Regions 9 and 10) Labor ForceCovered Employment (Reported Jobs) Central Oregon (Regions 9 and 10)Central Oregon (Regions 9 and 10) Unemployment Rate
* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Between 2007 and 2010 the Central Oregon (Regions 9 & 10) area saw its labor force grow by 1.5% while losing over 11% of its jobs.
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 21% while adding 10% more jobs.
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14.0%
16.0%
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250,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesSouthern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11)
Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11) Labor ForceCovered Employment (Reported Jobs) Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11)Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11) Unemployment Rate
* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Between 2007 and 2010 the Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11) area saw its labor force grow by just under 1% while losing nearly 11% of its jobs.
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 7.5% and lost 2.1% of its jobs. Most of them during the recession.
Survey data make it clear the “additional” unemployed came from layoffs, which have slowed.
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Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Oregon CPS Unemployment by Reason [Trend]
Entrants
Job Leavers
Job Losers
How to help the long-term unemployed is one of the biggest challenges we face.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
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Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Oregon CPS Duration of Unemployment [Trend], in weeks
Less than 5 weeks5 to 14 weeks15 to 26 weeks27 to 51 weeks52 weeks or more
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Cyclical Unemployment
Seasonal Unemployment
Full Employment
Frictional Unemployment
Structural Unemployment
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates means that we remove the seasonal ups and downs by removing the average annual increases / decreases common to the season from the data.
Types of Unemployment
Currently, two in five unemployed Oregonians has been jobless for 27 weeks or longer.
Long-term unemployment trend since 2002:
Fewest: 10,800 in January 2007
Peaked: 101,200 in June 2010
Current: 74,000 in May 2011
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Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
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Unemployed 26 weeks or less
Unemployed 27 weeks or longer
The long-term unemployed:
74,000 Oregonians in May 2011
45 percent of unemployed population
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Some employers may be hesitant to hire applicants who are unemployed…
During the annual conference of the Oregon Employer Council, attendees were asked what reasons, if any, might prevent them from hiring the long-term unemployed. Responses included:
•The long-term unemployed may have a bad attitude and/or lack motivation.•They may lack interview skills and/or do not properly prepare for an interview.•In some cases, the laid-off “weren’t the cream of the crop” to begin with.•Their skills may have become stale.•In some cases, they lack soft skills, i.e. time management, self-confidence, acting as a team player.
…but job seekers can address some of those concerns.
The majority of employers said they would consider hiring the long-term unemployed if they …
• … have the skill set to fill the position.• … were doing something productive - volunteering, attending school, homemaking - during their period of unemployment
•(It was noted that it’s very important the long-term unemployed note these activities on their resume; otherwise, they don’t get to the interview and don’t have the opportunity to describe what they’ve done)
• … have a reasonable reason as to why they’ve been unemployed.
Reducing the unemployment rate?Based on OEA population projections and current labor force participation rate:
Steady: Average of +1,500 jobs per month keeps rate at 9.6%
Decline: Need to average +3,500 per month to reach 6.6% by 2015.
Current: Average of +4,100 per month between October 2010 and April 2011
Note: changes in the rate of Baby Boomer retirements, in-migration to Oregon, and labor force participation have effects on these scenarios.
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
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10.5%
11.0%
Apr.2011
July Jan.2012
July Jan.2013
July Jan.2014
July Jan.2015
Un
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Oregon's Unemployment Under Various Employment Growth Scenarios
Steady Unemployment Rate OEA Forecast, May 2011
9.6 Percent
6.6 Percent
+ 1,500 jobs per month
+ 3,500 jobs per month
Source: Oregon Employment Department using May OEA Economic and Revenue Forecast
Men experienced a more dramatic increase in unemployment than women in recent years.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average Annual Unemployment Rates by GenderOregon, 1999-2010
Men
Women
Source: Current Population Survey, http://www.bls.gov/lau
Unemployment also varies by age groups, especially for relatively young workers.
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5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average Annual Unemployment by Age Category Oregon, 1999-2010
16 to 24 years 25 to 54 years
55 years and over Total population
Source: Current Population Survey, http://www.bls.gov/lau
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates vary from Gilliam County’s 5.6% to Crook County’s 15.1%. Twenty of Oregon’s 36 counties have rates below 10.0%.
Unemployment Below 10% in 20 of Oregon's 36 CountiesMay 2011, Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rates
5.6% to 7.9%
8.0% to 9.9%
10.0% to 11.9%
12.0% to 15.1%
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18%
Gilliam
Benton
Hood River
Washington
Morrow
Clatsop
Multnomah
Polk
Wasco
Clackamas
Wallowa
Klamath
Deschutes
Josephine
Lake
Jefferson
Douglas
Grant
Harney
Crook
Oregon Unemployment: Ten Highest / Lowest County Rates
May 2011
Total employment has also shown some growth …
Up by 55,600 since the most recent low in October 2009.
Includes farm jobs, self-employed, based on place of residence … so includes Oregonians who work in Washington or elsewhere.
The strong job growth seen this winter has slowed.
From September to March:
Private sector: +28,700
Government: +500
Average monthly nonfarm employment gain: +4,300 jobs
From March to May:
Private sector: +2,700
Government: -300
Average monthly nonfarm employment gain: +100 jobs
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0
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10,000
15,000
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Oregon's Monthly Job Growth/Declineseasonally adjusted
Recession of Dec. 2007 - June 2009
Employment loss started March 2008
Strongest monthlygrowth since 1996!
Employment Low PointDecember 2009
For the eight month in a row, Oregon has more jobs today than it did a year ago.
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-60,000
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Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Oregon's Year-Over-Year Job Growth/Declineseasonally adjusted
The last few months have included some decent news. But … we have to keep things in perspective. It’s a long climb back.
-45,000
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-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
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0
Jobs
Los
t....
-19.5%
-10.5%
-10.6%-10.6%
-7.2%-13.5%
Job losses from each industry's post-2001 recession peak to May 2011.
Manufacturing and construction have led Oregon's job losses.
-11.7%
-34.3%
-6.8%
More ads now than any month since recession start.
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He
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On
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January 2008 - May 2011
The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Online Data Series(Seasonally Adjusted)
Oregon - Total Ads Oregon - New Ads
Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLineTM (HWOL)
Oregon’s job postings tend to mirror national trends.
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The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Online Data SeriesTotal Ads Index (December 2007 = 100)
US Index
OR Index
Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLineTM (HWOL)
December 2009 was the recessionary employment trough, but there wasn’t much growth until October 2010.
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Em
plo
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t
Seasonally Adjusted Employment in OregonTotal Nonfarm Payroll: 1990 - 2011
Employment down 113,900 (-6.5%) frompeak in February 2008.
Employment low point was December 2009.
Employment now up 34,200 since then.
The private sector shed more than 150,000 jobs during this recession. It’s added jobs in six of the last seven months and we’ve now gained back 34,500.
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Em
plo
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Seasonally Adjusted Employment in OregonTotal Private Sector: 1990 - 2011
Private sector employment now 34,500 above the December 2009 recessionary low of 1,293,100.
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11
Source: Current Employment Statistics, Oregon Employment Department
Year-over-Year Change in Average Weekly HoursOregon, All Private Employees
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
35.5
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11
Source: Current Employment Statistics, Oregon Employment Department
Average Weekly Hours of All Private EmployeesOregon, January 2007 - May 2011
The year-over-year picture in the private sector is a lot more positive than it’s been in a while …
-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Mining and logging
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Federal government
State government
Local government
Oregon Nonmanufacturing Employment in May 2011Comparison with One Year Ago
We’ve tended to grow faster than the US in the good times, but lose more jobs (relative to our size) in the tough times.
1,500,000
1,550,000
1,600,000
1,650,000
1,700,000
1,750,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oregon and US Employment Trends*2003 to Current: US Trend Indexed to July 2003
Oregon
U.S. Trend
* Seasonally Adjusted
Where do we go from here? Job losses generally ended – in a “net” sense – in the fourth quarter of 2009. But we don’t regain pre-recession employment levels until the 1st quarter of 2014.
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
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2,000
1990:1 1992:1 1994:1 1996:1 1998:1 2000:1 2002:1 2004:1 2006:1 2008:1 2010:1 2012:1 2014:1 2016:1
Em
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Moving Beyond Recession … Oregon Total Employment
We are here
4th Quarter 2009
1st Quarter 2014
Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative ServicesMay 2011
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
us
an
ds
)
Moving Beyond Recession … Industry by Industry
Government
Educational and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Retail Trade
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacuturing
Financial Activities
We are here
Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative ServicesMay 2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
us
an
ds
)
Moving Beyond Recession … Industry by Industry
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Other Services
Transp, Warehouse, Utilities
Information
Mining and Logging
We are here
Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative ServicesMay 2011
Forecast calls for slow but steady growth.
-45,000
-35,000
-25,000
-15,000
-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Oregon Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Change
Projected (2nd quarter 2011
forward)
2001-2003Recession
1990-1991Recession
Source: Office of Economic Analysis, May 2011 forecast.
Job growth is expected in most industries…
-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Professional and Business Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Leisure and Hospitality
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Financial Activities
Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
Metals and Machinery
Information
Other Services
Construction
Educational Services
Transportation Equipment
Computer and Electronics
Other Nondurables
Wood Products
Natural Resources and Mining
Other Durables
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
Expected Job Changes by Industry Sector Over The Year(1Q 2011 - 1Q 2012)
Source: OED analysis using OEA Forecast, May 2011
…but it won’t cover those lost in the recession.
-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000
Health Care and Social Assistance
State Government
Educational Services
Professional and Business Services
Information
Other Services
Federal Government
Natural Resources and Mining
Leisure and Hospitality
Computer and Electronics
Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
Metals and Machinery
Wholesale Trade
Other Durables
Other Nondurables
Transportation Equipment
Local Government
Financial Activities
Wood Products
Retail Trade
Construction
Real and Expected Job Changes by Industry SectorSorted by Net Job Change
Jobs Lost Since Start of Recession*(1Q 2008 - 1Q 2011)
Job Change This Year(1Q 2011 - 1Q 2012)
Source: OED analysis using OEA Forecast, May 2011
* Industries that added jobs are set to zero.
Oregon’s Current Rankings: May 2011
Unemployment Rates:
Highest: Nevada (12.1%)Lowest: North Dakota (3.2%)
Oregon: 9.3%
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment:
Highest: North Dakota (3.9%)Lowest: New Mexico (-0.8%)
Oregon: 1.2%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Unemployment Rate(seasonally adjusted)
Year/YearJob Growth
Unemployment and Nonfarm Payroll Growth: All 50 States and D.C.May 2011
Oregon's ranking
The blue field shows the range of rates for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
16th
7th
Oregon was among the top 10 states for highest unemployment from September 2008 to April 2011.
Oregon’s year-over-year nonfarm employment growth is among the top 10 for all states.
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
New Mexico (51st)
Nevada (46th)
Idaho (30th)
United States
California (21st)
Washington (17th)
Oregon (7th)
Nebraska (3rd)
Texas (2nd)
North Dakota (1st)
Percent Job Growth, May 2010 to May 2011
Oregon Ranks 7th in Job GrowthSelected States, Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, not seasonally adjusted data.
Are there industries that are more susceptible to changes in the economy?
Yes!During an economic downturn there are a few industries that tend to be the first impacted by economic change:
• Durable goods (cars, furniture, TV’s, etc)• Financial Sector, particularly investments• Construction• Real Estate• Warehouse, distribution and freight transportation • Hospitality, particularly lodging and travel• Non-essential services (landscaping, massages, dry cleaning, etc.)• Non-essential retail (most of retail)
Are there industries that are generally more “resistant” to economic changes?
YES!
There are a few industries that by their nature as essential services and goods are more resistant to economic changes:
• Healthcare• Essential non-durable goods (Clothes, food, energy, parts, etc)• Retail (particularly those sectors associated with essential goods or
services)
Are there industries that tend to thrive in economic downturns?
YES!
In economic downturns, there are industries that thrive more than in good economic times, usually because they benefit from federal monetary policy designed to facilitate economic activity in the form of credit, others in response to peoples desire to be distracted from the concerns of tough economic times.
• Education• Government• Maintenance and Repair• Entertainment and recreation
Are there any industries that are 100% impervious to economic change?
NO!
Any industry is susceptible to economic changes, even industries considered “recession resistant”.
Even “water proof” watches are only “water proof” to certain amount of depth or length of exposure.
There are recession resistant attitudes and behaviors.
People who are proactive about their careers tend to fair better than people who react to situations
as they happen.
However!!!
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan-
97
May
-97
Sep-9
7
Jan-
98
May
-98
Sep-9
8
Jan-
99
May
-99
Sep-9
9
Jan-
00
May
-00
Sep-0
0
Jan-
01
May
-01
Sep-0
1
Jan-
02
May
-02
Sep-0
2
Jan-
03
May
-03
Sep-0
3
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Cyclical Unemployment
Full Employment
How Do Businesses React To Changes In Unemployment?
When Unemployment is High
(over 6%)
Demand for skills goes up
Wages offered tend to drop
EMPLOYER’S MARKET
When Unemployment is Low
(over 5%)
Demand for skills goes down
Wages offered tend to go up
JOB SEEKER’S MARKET
IMPORTANT!
A trend is a change over time. It takes six or more months of unemployment data to determine if it is going up or down!
WorkSource Oregon Employment Department’sLabor Market Information Web Site
www.qualityinfo.org
THANK YOU
MALCOLM BOSWELLWorkforce Analyst
Multnomah CountyTel (503) 666 - 1985 EXT. [email protected]