Supporting “Climate-Smart Ranching” in NE Oregon: Implementation of Habitat Modeling through a Community-Based Observing Network (CBON) to Monitor and Manage Rangeland Resources Kyle R. Hogrefe Adviser: Hannah Gosnell Committee: Robert Kennedy, Jamon Van Den Hoek, …

Presenta(onOutline•  StudyArea•  ProjectGenesis•  ResearchQues(ons•  Intellectual/Prac(calMerri<•  CurrentStatus–>Launch2017

Source:PreciousLandsWildlifeAreaDraIManagementPlanNovember2002

Project Genesis Dr.Gosnell•  “IncreasingtheResilienceofRanchingandPublicLandsGrazingin

theBlueMountains,Oregon”•  USFSfundedresearchincollabora(onwithMtnSEON,Universityof

Idaho.

CoreCollaborators•  WallowaResources(WR)

•  Interna(onalCenterfortheAdvancementofPastoralSystems(ICAPS)

•  TheNatureConservancy(TNC)•  UnitedStatesForestService(USFS)

•  WallowaWhitmanNa(onalForest(WWNF)

•  OSURequestfromICAPS•  Assistanceimplemen(ngPHYGROW(PhytomassGrowthModel)

inWallowaCountytoenhanceadap(vecapacity•  LivestockEarlyWarningSystem(LEWS)•  EnhancementofPHYGROWcapacitytoassessecologicaloutcomes

ofgrazingmethods

(Source:h<p://blackland.tamu.edu/models/phygrow/)

(Source:Sheehyetal.2005)

PHYGROW-LEWSDataFlow

PHYGROWdataproductsareusedinaLEWSthatprovidesnearreal-(medatawarningoflowforagequan((esasclimatevaries(examplefromMongolia).

Output

Research Questions TheEcologicalRealmCanPHYGROWandLandTrendrbeintegratedtoenabletheassessmentoftheecologicaloutcomesofdifferentgrazingstrategies(atthelandscapescale)?•  TowhatdegreecanLandTrendrtrackchangeinrangelandhabitats?Usingthisintegratedmodel,isitpossibleto:•  Trackhabitatcondi(onsthatmarkthedistribu(onofnoxiousand/or

endangeredspecies?•  Decoupletheeffectsofgrazingintensityandchangingweatherpa<ernson

habitatcondi(on?

•  Accuratelyassesstheecosystemservicesprovidedbyrangelandhabitatsunderdifferentmanagementregimes?

TheSocialRealmHowdoranchersandotherrangelandmanagersusetheLEWSandothermodeloutputasadecisionsupporttool?Whatins(tu(onalbarrierspreventclimatesmartranchingdecisionssuggestedbuythemodels?HowcanaCBONenhancecollabora(onacrossins(tu(onalbarriersandincreaseadap(vecapacity?

LandTrendrData

(Source:h<ps://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov//vis/a010000/a011100/a011144/)

(Source:h<p://landtrendr.forestry.oregonstate.edu/content/how-landtrendr-works)

Intellectual / Practical Merritt CommunityBasedObserva(onNetworks(CBON)(Alessaetal.inReview)

•  EyesNorthResearchCoordina(onNetwork(RCN)•  Expansionofnetworkandadapta(onofbestprac(cesfromtheArc(cto

westernrangelands•  WallowaCounty,OR;•  RockCreekRanch:HaileyIdaho

•  WhyaCBON?•  InclusionofTradi(onalEcologicalKnowledgewithsurveyandsatellite

datainmodelingeffort•  NetworkofHighFidelityObserversacrossLandscape•  Prac(calapplica(on,projectlongevity,andsocialcapital•  Integra(onofsocialcomponentofSESindataset

LandChangeScience:Challenges(Turneretal.2007)

•  Detec(onof“Cryp(c”landchanges:biophysicalfactorswithinhabitats

•  Integra(onofmul(scalespa(otemporaldatafrommanysources

•  Understandinglinkagesbetweendistalandproximalcauses

•  Causallinks:ecosystemprocesses,ecosystemservicesandbiodiversity

•  Needto“couplethehumananbiophysicalsubsytems”

Intellectual / Practical Merritt ClimateSmartRanching:Principles(Reeves2014,Steenworth2014,Diaz2009,Scherr2012,Lipper2014)

Principles•  Planfor,insteadofreactto,variableweathercondi(ons

•  Enhancestockingrateflexibilitytomatchavailableresources

•  Plannedgrazingtoimprovesoilmoisture,fer(lityandcarbonsequestra(on

•  Strategicgrazingatalandscapescaletofollowop(malforageacrosshabitatsandeleva(on

•  Coordinatedac(onbyranchers,researchers,civilsocietyandpolicymakerstowardsresilientpathways

•  Trackingsocialandecologicalchangetodetermineifgoalsaremet

ResiliencyThinking:•  Resiliency:AbilityofSEStoabsorbshockwithoutchangingthefundamental

natureofthesystems’essen(alfunc(ons,structures,iden(tyandfeedback.

•  SESarecomplexintegratedsystemswithmul(plecomponentsthatoperateovermul(plescales.

•  UnderstandtheSESanditsvariables•  Embracediversitytoenhanceresiliency

Source:h<ps://www.sagegrouseini(a(ve.com/roots/

Current Status –> Launch 2017 FundingUSDANWandWOClimateHub•  $45,000.00and50,000.00

•  Fullfundingfor2017and2018FieldSeasons•  PHYGROWandLandTrendrfieldsurveyswithAdopt-a-Pixel

betates(ng•  Structuredinterviews•  Outreachandcommunica(ons

Deliverables/Milestones•  Applica(onofPHYGROWandLandTrendrmodelsto

WallowaCountyrangelandhabitats

•  Modelintegra(onprovidingassessmentofecologicalintegrityofrangelandhabitatsandtheecosystemservicestheyprovide

•  Interviewswithcoreranchingcollaboratorsassessing:1.  Needforthesedecisionsupporttools2.  Theins(tu(onalbarrierstotheiruse

•  CBONwithfieldsurveyprotocolssupportedbyAdopt-a-Pixelcellphoneapp

•  Workshopsandmee(ngstotrainandupdatestakeholdersandexpandCBONnetwork

•  2018SRMmee(ng,technicalreports,publica(ons

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

TASKIdentifycoreCBONcollaboratorsandco-developresearchgoals X X x x x XImplementPHYGROWandLandTrendrmodelsinWallowaCounty x x x x x x x x xCoordinateAdopt-a-Pixel/LandTrendrandPHYGROWdatacollectionprotocols x xAttendRangelandsCBONcoordinationworkshopinHailey,Idaho XProvidetrainingsonPHYGROWandAdopt-a-Pixelsurveyprotocols XOrganizeCBONmeetingtoengageadditionalexpertobservers;identifykeyvariablesofimporttocommunity;articulatemonitoringneeds;beginco-creatingadditionalquestionsandprotocols

X

Conductfieldsurveystoreassess2013-14sitesandprovideadatatime-stepforthePHYGROWmodeland“training”dataforLandTrendr.

x x x

Conductfocusgroupsonclimate-relatedchallengesandclimatesmartranchinginWallowa,andanticipatedbenefitsofadecisionsupporttool,withcoreparticipants(ICAPS,WWNF,TNC,WR)

x x x

ConductqualitycontrolofdatacollectionandincludedatainLandTrendrandPHYGROWmodels

x x x x

DraftarticleonhowlandchangescienceandCBONscaninformandsupportclimatesmartranching;Chapter1inHogrefe’sdissertation

x x x x x

HoldWallowaCounty/RegionalCBONmeetingtoupdatemembersandpresentearlyresults

X

HostcommunityworkshoptoprovideintroductiontoPHYGROW,LandTrendr,Adopt-a-Pixel;encouragepotentialobservers

X

Integratemodelstoimproverangelandassessmentandmonitoring x x x x x x x x x x x x x xCreateprojectwebsite x x x x xSubmitmsonhowlandsystemscienceandCBONscaninform“climate-smartranching”topeerreviewedjournal

X

Hostcommunityworkshoptointroduceprojectwebsite,describeaccesstoCBONdataandprovidemodelresults,andgiveinstructiononcontributionofdatawhileidentifyingnewCBONobservers

X

Hirearesearchassistanttohelpwithrangehabitatassessmentsurveys X x x x xProvidetrainingto2-3moreCBONobserverscoveringPHYGROWprotocolsandprovidetrainingtoallinterestedstakeholdersinLandTrendr/Adopt-a-Pixelprotocols

X

Conductfieldsurveystocompletecoverageof2013-14ICAPSsitesandexpandspatialcoveragewithagoalofsurveyingaminimumof60sites

x x x x

ProduceandprovideaprojectsummaryforNWCHandCBONPartners x x x XConductqualitycontrolofdatacollectedduringthefieldseasonanddocumentlessonslearned;integratedataintomodels

x x x x

DraftjournalarticleonimplementationandintegrationofPHYGROWandLandTrendrinWallowaCounty;Chapter2inHogrefe’sdissertation;SubmitinMay

x x x x x x x x X

HoldcombinedWallowaCounty/RegionalCBONmeetingtoupdatepartners;expandcollaboration

X x x x x x x x x x x x x

ContinuefieldsuveyefforttoincreasesamplesitedensitytosupporthigherresolutionPHYGROWmodelingandcontinuedadatpationofLandTrendrtorangelandapplications;applydatatomodels

x x x x x x x

TimelineforWallowaCountyrangelandhabitatmonitoringmodelandCBONdevelopment

WOCHFunding NWCHFunding2017 2018 2019

Thanks … and a parting visualization of institutional barriers to climate smart ranching and a resilient Social-Ecological System in Wallowa County.