surprise & adaptation - design incubation · pdf filethe surprise toy within the chocolate...

When I heard this song on the radio I had to buy the album. Now it’s all I hear and I can’t stand a single beat.

Adapted by DIC from IIT Institute of Design

Surprise & Adaptation

F1EXPECTAT ION

img:

A. K

neaz

le.jp

g

I used to be really excited to uncover the surprise toy within the chocolate egg, but now I don’t really collect them anymore.

Surprise & Adaptation

F1EXPECTAT ION

img:

A. K

neaz

le.jp

g

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design

F1EXPECTAT ION

People are excited by things that are unexpected, while predictable events may lose impact over time.

F1EXPECTAT ION

Expecting to feel less pain can actually make you feel less pain.

Placebo Effect

img:

Med

izin

flasc

hefla

sche


Sugar waterMedicine

F1EXPECTAT ION

People’s experiences align with their expectations about what will happen.

F1EXPECTAT ION

“I’ll love that car forever!”

img:

cor

bis

Impact Bias(Affective Forecasting Error)


F1EXPECTAT ION

People tend to overestimate how long and how intense their future feelings will be.

F1EXPECTAT ION

All Jack could think about was the small toy he won from the cereal box competi-tion. But when it arrived, he had already moved on to the next contest.

Anticipation of Rewards


img:

flic

kr

F1EXPECTAT ION

People are more excited by the prospect of a reward than the reward itself. This anticipation can contribute to addictive behavior.

F2T IME

“I’ll love that car forever!”

Impact Bias(Affective Forecasting Error)

img:

cor

bis


F2T IME

People tend to overestimate how long and how intense their future feelings will be.

F2T IME

Children were offered a choice between a marshmallow immediately or two marsh-mallows if they waited for 15minutes. Kids struggled to resist the single marshmallow placed before them while some kids ate the marshmallow immediately. (Stanford)

img:

Vim

eo C

orbi

s

Hyperbolic Discounting


F2T IME

People tend to value the present over the future. (Exception: If both choices are far enough in the future, people prefer the greater benefit.)

F2T IME

Shopping in the supermarket while hun-gry can often lead to purchasing more than what was on you initial shopping list.

img:

Sta

ticG

uim

UK

Intertemporal Choice


F2T IME

People lack empathy for their future-self and needs. When making decisions for the future, people tend to focus on how they feel now.

F2T IME

People are optimistic when it comes to big decisions. 50% of marriages end in divorce, but at the time of the ceremony, almost all couples believe there is zero chance of getting a divorce. This holds true, even if they are on their second marriage. (Thaler and Sunstein)

img:

Jare

dWils

on

Optimism Bias


F2T IME

People tend to be overly confident about the outcome of planned actions and decisions.

F2T IME

The contractor told me that the roof would only take 4 days to fix. Of course this didn’t happen as expected and the project dragged on for 3 weeks.

img:

cal

finde

r

Planning Fallacy


F2T IME

People tend to underestimate the time it takes to complete tasks.

F2T IME

We expect a family reunion to be dull if we compare it with a relaxing trip, and delightful if we compare it with working overtime. But, when people are mentally engaged in the event, they tend not to think about the other things they could have done instead. (Daniel Gilbert)

img:

Am

adeu

s_th

egua

rdia

n

Attentional Collapse


F2T IME

People tend to make comparison with future or past experiences when predicting how much they will enjoy a future experience.

F2T IME

Credit cards make purchases less pain-ful by pushing people’s cash outlay into the future.

img:

Eile

enN

orm

an

Decoupling


F2T IME

People don’t always connect their actions to its consequences. The longer the delay between an action and its consequence, the weaker the link in people’s minds.

People tend to sell stocks that have increased in value, but hold on to depreci-ating stocks twice as long. Over time, this may lead to a portfolio of shares that are losing money. This is because people are afraid to take a loss, and postponing the sale of a losing stock avoids the tangibility of the loss. (Lehrer)

Loss AversionF3LOSS

img:

A. C

laris

sa H

artso

n


F3LOSS

People tend to focus on potential loss more than potential gain. A loss is more painful to people than an equivalent gain is rewarding to them.

Ann received 5 parking tickets stacked and issued on separate days. Although the 5 fines added up to the same amount as 1 speeding ticket she received last month, the 5 separate tickets still felt worst.

F3LOSS

img:

Ben

Woj

dyla

Hedonic Framing


F3LOSS

People tend to view 2 gains occurring separately as having more value than 1 large gain of equalvalue. However, 2 losses occurring separately are more painful than 1 large loss.

I’ve spent the whole day fixing up my new IKEA table. I think it’s the best thing in the world and will never throw it away.

F3LOSS

img:

Ikea

_Lin

dsay

Commitment


F3LOSS

People tend to have trouble letting go of something when time and effort have been invested, even if it’staking them down a long dark path.

“Look around your house. Pick something. How much would you sell it for? How much would people really pay for it? The contents of your house are more valuable to you than to other people.”(ChangingMinds.org)

Endowment Effect

F4OWNERSHIP

img:

Ant

hony

Ros

enbe

rg


F4OWNERSHIP

People tend to value things they own more than others value them—this includes abstract things such as ideas and beliefs.

He had a bad team experience because he’s very stubborn. But I had a bad team experience because we didn’t meet enough.

Actor-Observer Bias

F4OWNERSHIP

img:

Jean

Kel

ley


F4OWNERSHIP

People often attribute successes to their own actions and virtues,and blame problems on situational factors.

In Germany’s opt-in organ donation program, only 12% of citizensconsented to donate. But in Austria, where they have established anopt-out program, 99% consented.(Thaler and Sunstein)

Status Quo Bias

S1EXTERNAL CUES

img:

12

3rf


S1EXTERNAL CUES

People tend to choose not to make decisions. The most frequently selected option will often be the default because people areunwilling to commit to the time and risk associated with choice.

Guests who received signs saying “75% of guests who stayed in this Room 222 reused their towels” reused their towels more than rooms that just say “help save the environment”. (Mindlin)

Bandwagon Effect

S1EXTERNAL CUES

img:

hot

elch

atte

r


S1EXTERNAL CUES

People tend to do or believe things because many other people do or believe the same.

One person sees a holiday in the hills as an opportunity for outdoor exercise. Her friend sees it as a chance for a quietread. Her son sees it as a long period of boredom. (ChangingMinds.org)

Framing

S2COMPARTMENTS

img:

Can

stock

phot

o


S2EXTERNAL CUES

People tend to draw different conclusions based on how data is presented. Differences include: theinformation source, context, loss/gain and personal attributes appealed to.

People buying coffee daily don’t feel that $5 a day is a big deal, but the $1000 a year is more than they would be willing to pay.

Choice Bracketing

S2COMPARTMENTS

img:

Sim

plyS

hred

ded


S2EXTERNAL CUES

Boundaries are drawn around information when one makes a decision. Broad bracketing takes into account a wider context with more choices. People tend to bracket Narrowly (include fewer or single choices) despite the tendency of more desirable decisions through broad bracketing.

People tend to think of their salary as lump sums. But when they are paid hourly, it’s much easier to equate a job with specific items. “If I do an extra shift, I can buy that new sofa.” (Schmidt)

Mental Accounting

S2COMPARTMENTS

img:

Dem

10


S2EXTERNAL CUES

People tend to think about the world in terms of specific accounts, wherevalue isn’t interchangeable.

Rob wants to buy a new flashy sports car, but his wife reminds him that he is already a father of 3 and they need a practical car that fits the family.

Identity

S2COMPARTMENTS

img:

Aut

omot

iveB

uzzz


S2EXTERNAL CUES

People view themselves (feelings, mind-sets, thoughts, behaviours, values, priorities) as internally consistent. Context and the way things are framed can radically affect how people behave. This results in transitional identities throughout the day.

Day care centres fine parents for late pickups. However this backfired when parents no longer feel guilty but instead treat it as a paid service.

Business vs. Social Norms

S2COMPARTMENTS

img:

Nor

mas

_glo

balp

ost


S2EXTERNAL CUES

Money changes the way people evaluate their choices and view their behavior. It can shift people into a business mind set and violate social norms.

People with negative views about cancer are more likely to avoid cancer information, as they do not want to allow their negative feelings and views to continue.

Information Avoidance

S3MENTAL MODELS

img:

Cor

bis


S3MENTAL MODELS

People tend to avoid information when faced with extreme cases of stories or images. They also assume they can avoid by ignoring them.

Sam wants to live a long healthy life. Even though smoking causes lung cancer, he still smokes. He rationalizes his behaviour by telling himself that not everyone who smokes will get lung cancer.

Resolving Cognitive Dissonance

S3MENTAL MODELS

img:

psy

chpa

ge


S3MENTAL MODELS

People feel a need to resolve having multiple contradictory states or beliefs in their minds. Sometimes this leads to rationalizing evidences that don’t support their choices.

Job interview candidates are judged based on their initial impression, and it’s difficult to overcome that initialassessment later on.

Diagnosis Bias

S3MENTAL MODELS

img:

Cor

bis


S3MENTAL MODELS

People tend to label people, ideas or things based on initial opinions, and have an inability to reconsider these judgments later on.

S4QUICK INDICATORS


Diagnosis Bias

img:

Cor

bis


S4QUICK INDICATORS


I know there is a moderate chance of me winning the local singing compe-tition. There is another competition in Malaysia but I do not know how good the singers are there. Rather than risking it, I just enter for the local competition.

Ambiguity Effect

S4QUICK INDICATORS

img:

Sin

gapo

reId

ol_B

ILOXI



People tend to avoid options where they feel they are unable to understand the risks because ofmissing information.

S4QUICK INDICATORS

While buying a new car, Alex made his decision solely on financing incentives. A few months later, he regretted that he had neglected to investigate the car’s hefty maintenance costs.

Segregation

S4QUICK INDICATORS

img:

20

13

jeep

acce

ssor

ies



People tend to focus on things that seem most relevant. Additionaldetails may be left out or discarded.

S4QUICK INDICATORS

People purchase warranties because not having to worry at all is worth more than the money spent.

Certainty Bias

S4QUICK INDICATORS

img:

Nic

k Re

ese



People tend to value reducing risk to zero more than other comparablereductions (e.g. a risk reduction from 5% to 0% is more valuable than 20%to 15%)

S4QUICK INDICATORS

“I should go for a mammogram soon! My friend of the same age just got diag-nosed with breast cancer recently.”

Availability

S4QUICK INDICATORS

img:

myl

ilven

ture



People tend to rely on easy-to-access examples when making decisions. These examples are most oftenrecent, vivid, and personal stories.

S4QUICK INDICATORS

Given three options, people tend to choose the middle one: it seems like a good deal compared to the high end option. Very few select the lowest priced option. (Ariely)

Anchoring

S4QUICK INDICATORS

img:

tabr

ar&

Earle

$12 $10 $8



People tend to use a familiar or previously introduced piece of information as a referencepoint, and make subsequent decisions relative to that anchor.Sometimes even a meaningless anchor can have a strong influence on a person.

S4QUICK INDICATORS

He is an extremely athletic young man who drives a fast car and has an attractive girlfriend. Do you think he is a professional footballer or a nurse?

Representativeness

S4QUICK INDICATORS

img:

Mic

hael

San

ds



People tend to assume a limited sample or stereotype is representative of a larger trend or population.

S4QUICK INDICATORS

“It will rain during our soccer match today. It has been raining for the past few times we played soccer”.

S4QUICK INDICATORS

img:

Illu

sion

_gul

fnew

s

Clustering Illusion



People tend to see patterns where actually none exist.

S4QUICK INDICATORS

surprise & adaptation - design incubation · pdf filethe surprise toy within the chocolate...

Documents