Sirkka Heinonen, Joni Karjalainen& Karlheinz Steinmüller

Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), University of TurkuNeo-Carbon Energy Project

Futures of a Complex World12–13 June 2017, Turku, Finland

Surprise As the New NormalImplicationsforEnergySecurity

www.neocarbonenergy.fi https://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/Pages/neo-fore.aspx

Outline of Our Presentation1. We study energy transformations – how

to reach a 100% renewable energysociety by 2050?

2. VUCA world – discontinuities, surprises,and unexpected events

3. Implications of surprises for energysecurity? Testing the resilience and anti-fragility of transformative scenarios –using results from a Futures Clinique

1. ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONS

ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONS

• Climate change: ’push’ for infrastructure andsocietal change.

• Energy literature typically focuses on techno-economic aspects of energy systems, less onsocio-cultural aspects. However, technologicaland social change are intertwined.

• Many proposals for ’energy transformations’(carbon capture & storage, nuclear, renewableenergy system)

What Is Neo-Carbon Energy Project?

Prof Sirkka HeinonenFFRC, Future ofEnergy InnovationsDr José Cordeiro,MP, SingularityUniversity;

Prof ChristianBreyer, LUT

Dr Pasi Vainikka,VTT, Project Coordinator

• Horizon scanning/weak signals• Futures Cliniques• Transformational Scenarios on Neo-

Carbon Energy Futures 2050• Pioneer analysis• Discontinuities & Black Swans

Business, government and NGOs

One of the Tekes strategy research openings(2014-2017), in cooperation with the• Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT• Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT• Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC

How to reach a 100% renewable energy system by 2050?

Dr KarlheinzSteinmüller(Z_punkt/MillenniumProject)

Millennium Project& Club of Rome

Jerome Glenn,Director of theMillennium Project

In the neo-carbon system, everything is produced emissions-free with solar, wind, and otherrenewables, and synthetic materials from renewables even replace oil.

In the neo-carbon world, everything is produced emissions-free withsolar, wind, and other renewables. Energy stored in batteries, smart

grids, and synthetic hydrocarbons. Synthetic processes replacefossil-fuel based processes.

In the 20th century, infrastructure was centralized.In the 21st century decentralization proceeds and drives peer-to-peer society.

ENERGY IN A NEOCARBONIZED WORLD

Great Electrification Generated by RE

• Aimed at electrification of society(electric vehicles, heating & cooling)

• With synthetic hydrocarbons the sectorswhich are difficult to run with electricity(e.g. aviation and freight transport) canbe made emission-free

https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory

Energy and societal change

• Societal and cultural aspects of energyalso matter

• Energy is not only a technological andecological issue, but has implications for thewhole society – its power relations, politics,culture, values, economy and production

© Sirkka Heinonen

1. RADICAL STARTUPS

2. VALUE-DRIVENTECHEMOTHS

3. GREEN DIYENGINEERS

4. NEWCONSCIOUSNESS

FOUR TRANSFORMATIONAL SCENARIOS 2050

http://www.theprofessionalcreative.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/apple-campus-2.jpg

http://mizzouwire.missouri.edu/stories/2008/green-engineering/

http://www.wired.com/2014/11/thierry-cohen-darkened-cities/http://mizzouwire.missouri.edu/stories/2008/green-engineering/

• Together with other technologicaldevelopments, such as automation and AI,increases in (renewable) energy supply anddecreases in energy price could steer ourworld into unknown futures.

• That is why it is increasingly crucial toanticipate emerging discontinuities andsurprises in different sectors of society.

2. VUCA WORLD

WHAT DOES VUCA MEAN?

• V for ‘volatile’ that means ever changing

• U for ‘uncertain’, you have always problems to predict

• C for ‘complexity’ that means many factors interacting and

• A for ‘ambiguity’ that means that you have difficulties to makesense of it.

Interview of Karlheinz Steinmüller on VUCA World andBlack Swans by Sirkka Heinonen at FFRC 18th May 2017https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGOPmM5zGtQ

Discontinuities,Disruptions and

Black Swans

Black Swans = sudden, improbable events with dramatic impacts

Dr. Karlheinz SteinmüllerZ_punkt The ForesightCompany

What Surprises are Possible?

Household Robots

Natural Hazards

Change Everywhere

Renewable Energy

VerticalAgriculture

Blobitectur

Global Connectivity

Dr. Karlheinz SteinmüllerZ_punkt The Foresight Company

… and Increase Vulnerabilities

Ries: Workshop Global Europe 2030/2050, Nov. 2010

Dr. Karlheinz SteinmüllerZ_punkt The Foresight Company

Utopias(Hopes, Fears; Philosophy

of HistoryScience Fiction …)Prediction

(Forecasting,Extrapolation)

now time

Uncertainties

Predetermination

… and Increase Uncertainties ...

Foresight /Futures Research:

Extrapolation.Speculation, Vision

Foresight is Ignorance Management

TRAP OF LINEAR THINKING

• The future is often anticipated through trends –through things that exist today and are familiarto us.

• Trends are a useful way to anticipatedevelopment. We know e.g. with relativecertainty the size of global population in 2050.

FUTURE IS NOT EXTENSION OF PRESENT

• Such events that break the conventional lineardevelopment paths constantly occur.

• E.g. some surprising chain of events couldaccelerate the growth of the African economy

Ø Overcoming disease burdenØ Enhanced gender balance

Ø Rapid and widescale adoption of ICTsØ International dynamics beyond colonial ties

Ø Increasing intra-African tradeØ Slowdown of population growth

Ø Uptake of emerging technologies

BAU IS NO MORE SEEN AS THE NORM-> SURPRISES ARE THE NEW NORMAL!

• Surprises and new directions can be anticipatedbeforehand by identifying and analysing weaksignals (initial signs of change, new phenomena).

• Sometimes they are launched by a black swan(sudden, surprising, unanticipated events withradical consequences).

• Weak signals and black swans are rather ”uncertain” inanticipation.

• Instead, we can first pay attention to and analysediscontinuities.

• They are not individual phenomena or sudden events, butgradual, long-term and deep change processes consistingof different interlinking trends, weak signals (or newphenomena), and also black swans

-> “discontinuity clusters”

• Issues that create adiscontinuous developmentprocess often come fromdifferent fields.

• E.g. for the iPhone Applecombined existingtechnologies in innovativeways rather than invented anew technology as such.

• Machine learning and AIbring about changes onlywhen combined with othertechnologies and fields,such as financing,journalism, or diagnostics inmedicine.

Dr. Karlheinz SteinmüllerZ_punkt The Foresight Company

Trends and Their ImpactsC

ontin

uity

Uncertainty

steady

disruptive

low high

Trends

PrimaryTrend Impacts

HigherTrend Impacts

& Inter-actions

BlackSwans

• The present rise of renewable energy and especiallysolar PVs is an example of discontinuity withoutblack swan events.

• No longer than 10 years ago almost no one anticipatedthe rapid fall in cost of solar PVs.

• A major cause for the discontinuity in the price wasChina - the first country to mass-produce and offercheap solar PV panels.

• Many other trends, converged to tip the solardevelopment off its linear slow path.

Transformation needed,on its way

-> Need to understand the change-> Need to understand and anticipate non-linearities

.

3. Implications of Surprises onEnergy Security

As the world increasingly seeks to movetowards a renewable energy based society,

what implications can surprises have forenergy security?

Black Swans Futures CliniqueDiscontinuities were anticipated in five thematicfields.These were chosen because of their significance insociety & potential for surprises.

1) Politics: nation-states, governments,geopolitics, new ideologies

2) Corporations and economy3) Civil society & peer-to-peer practices4) Robotisation & artificial intelligence (AI)5) New lifestyles

• Groups were free to explore these fields and theirpossible futures.

Thinking ofdiscontinuities• What are the latest

emergingphenomena on yourtopic?

• What kinds ofimpacts could theyhave?

• The most interestingsuggestions wereclustered into 3-5groups(“discontinuityclusters”)

PESTECTable method

• Chosen 3-5 clusterswere then furtherworked

• What kinds of impactscould emerge fromthese discontinuities?

• What black swanscould emerge?

• How do these impactrenewable energyworld?

1) Politics:nation-states,governments,geopolitics,newideologies

2) Corporationsand economy

3) Civil society &peer-to-peerpractices

4) Robotisation& artificialintelligence(AI)

5) New lifestyles

1) Mega deaths; Giving up capitalism:Fossil fuel industry revenge +Total industrial revolution; Newwinner technology: Reformed UN;World fils with junk

2) Internet or powergrid collapse;Super-zika epidemia; Collapse of amajor state + Regional militaryconflict; Failed innovations; Blindleaders; Political shutdown ofcapitalist system; Forcedregionalism; Electricity allergy

3) Global communality;Nation states disappear; Climaterefugees; Virtual civil war

4) Humans revolt – go medieval;Robots revolt; Cyborgs;Weaponization of civil robots;Benevolent global government

5) Limit no. of people (kill the wise,keep the stupid); Philosopher king;“Human container” formarginalised ones; New castesystem; Direct democracy;Stimulation of nucleus accumbens;

1) More off-grid energy;Smart political planningpossible; Human rightscase on clean energy

2) Significant delays indevelopment; Manualmode for all systems;Economic slow-down;Military mode; Death ofthe old worlds

3) Everyone has panels onthe roof, but a bigcorporation owns them;Significantly advancedrenewables; Self-sufficient energy

4) Saviour of people?Friend of roboticenemies?

5) Decision to cut downconsumption; Nationalenergy budgets (limited);Energy from space

GROUP BLACK SWANS RENEWABLE ENERGY

CROSS IMPACT ANALYSISBRAINSTORMING SESSION:

QUAN AND QUALORGANISED at FFRC AFTER THE FUTURES CLINIQUE

RadicalStartups

Society isorganised aroundstartups, whichserve social andcultural goalsbesideseconomic ones.

Value-DrivenTechemoths

Large technologycompanies, witha peer-to-peerethos, havebecome “stateswithin states”.

Do-It-YourselfEngineers

Citizens haveorganised aslocalcommunities tosurvive andecologicalcollapse.

NewConsciousness

Shared identi-ties replaceindividualism.Robotisationand AI haveenabled a self-actualizing economy.

Black Swan 1 …

Black Swan 2 ….

Black Swan 3

Black Swan 4

Post Black Swans Cross Impact AnalysisTrans-forma-tionalScenarios

2050

QuantitativeQualitative

Impacts

QuantitativeQualitative

QuantitativeQualitative

Black swan Radical Startups2050

Techemoths2050

Green DIY2050

New Consciousness2050

TotalIndustrialRevolution(bio or 3D).

QUAN: ↑↑↑QUAL: Boosts the StartupsStartups 3D print their renewables solutions.Fits small scale. Standardization problem.Problems because a big pool of data does notexist.

QUAN: ↑QUAL: Monopolisation of 3Dcould stagnate economy.Further polarization. 3D printskyscrapers.

QUAN: ↑QUAL: Recyclable 3D materials.Self-made 3D printers.

QUAN: ↑↑QUAL: Open source of 3D, open ownership

Collapse of theUnited States ofAmerica

QUAN: ↑QUAL: Exodus of US scientists and SiliconValley. Radical startups in other countries.

QUAN: ↑↓QUAL: Asian techemoths inChina and India. Strongcompany power. UStechemoths fall, Asian rise.

QUAN: ↑↑QUAL: Multiple DIY communitiesespecially in the US. Re-juvenationof the USA.

QUAN: ↓↓QUAL: Security, US mercenaries. World offear of other ‘failed states’. Vulnerable.Militant Buddhism.

Mass Deaths dueto ClimateChange such as‘methane bomb’

QUAN: ↑QUAL: innovations/ solutions to help orprevent. Changes ethos of startupsprofoundly. Or “we told you so”. Anti-fragility.

QUAN: ↑↑QUAL: police-state liketechemoths. Techemothscalled to help, safe havensfor survivors. Gov’t cannothelp.

QUAN: ↑↓?QUAL: Survival of the fittest.Closed self-sufficient communities.Gov’t cannot help.

QUAN: First ↓↓,then ↑↑QUAL: Empathy. First shock, then rethinkingcollective action.

Revengeof theFossil FuelIndustry

QUAN: ↓QUAL: Commercial, cyber warfare against REstartups. Some countries abandon Parisagreement. Finance fake news.

QUAN: ↓↓QUAL: Old money vs. newmoney. Large oil companieswarfare against REtechemoths. RE financebubble blown by fossilcompanies. Dumping of theoil price.

QUAN: ↓↓QUAL: DIY Engineers (and hobbytechnologies) criminalized andsanctioned. Execute activists.

QUAN: First ↓↓↓,then ↑↑↑.QUAL: Evangelisation of fossil thinking.Missionaries of the old world. Fakeconsciousness. But mostly revenge fails.

Digital Anarchyas “Virtual civilwar”

QUAN: ↑QUAL: Drone terrorism with facialrecognition. Russia and North Korea asterrorist states. Hacked robots/IoT used inattacks.

QUAN: ↓↓QUAL: Outside hackers as acounterforce. Veryvulnerable.

QUAN: ↑QUAL: Life without Internet is“normal”. Neo-luddites Internet-free. Back to analog tools / ways ofproduce. Back to handmade world.

QUAN: ↓↓,then ↑QUAL: Vulnerable online life. Carboncapture. Diabolization of fossil thinking.

CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS SESSION: QUAN AND QUAL

• Discontinuities emerge from complexinterconnections of different developments, issues,technologies etc. – which may at first seem unrelatedand insignificant, thus not easily recognised.

• As the world is complex, discontinuities increase andthe world becomes more volatile and surprise is thenew normal.

• When the world is seeking a transformation towardshigh shares of renewable energy (a 100% renewableenergy society), anticipating vulnerabilities andunexpected events can improve energy security of thefuture

TO SUM UP

Thank You!Prof. Sirkka Heinonen

Project Researcher Joni Karjalainensirkka.heinonen@utu.fijoni.karjalainen@utu.fi

www.neocarbonenergy.fihttps://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/Pages/neo-fore.aspx

Breyer, Christian & Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2017). New Consciousness: A societal andenergetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet Earth. Technological Forecasting &Social Change, 114, 7–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.029

Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni – Helle, Aino & Nisula, Sakari (2017) Argentinian Energy Landscapes.Case Study of the Neo-Carbon Energy Project. FFRC eBOOK 12/2016. Finland Futures Research Centre,University of Turku. 84 p. ISBN 978-952-249-469-6, ISSN 1797-1322http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook_12-2016.pdf

Steinmüller, Karlheinz (2017). Black Swans and the VUCA World. Futures Clinique“Surprising Energy Futures Testing Resilience of Renewable Energy World with Black Swans”Helsinki, May 17.

Heinonen, Sirkka, Matti Minkkinen, Joni Karjalainen and Sohail Inayatullah (2016), Testing transformativeenergy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming, in Technological Forecasting and Social Change(Published online), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.011

Juho Ruotsalainen, Sirkka Heinonen, Joni Karjalainen and Marjukka Parkkinen (2016), Peer-to-peer work inthe digital meaning society 2050, European Journal for Futures Research 4:10, Dec 2016,https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-016-0092-2 Open access link: http://paperity.org/p/78129453/peer-to-peer-work-in-the-digital-meaning-society-2050

Ruotsalainen, Juho – Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni – Parkkinen, Marjukka – Laurén, Leena-Maija &Salminen, Hazel (2016) The Fuzzy Futures of Neo-Carbon Work. Neo-Carbon Futures Clinique II. FFRC eBOOK11/2016. Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku. 72 p. ISBN 978-952-249-468-9, ISSN 1797-1322. http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_11-2016.pdf

More information: https://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/Pages/neo-fore.aspx

See also: www.neocarbonenergy.fi/impacts/

REFERENCES

Salovaara, Kaisa, Makkonen, Mari, Gore, Olga & Honkapuro, Samuli (2016) Electricity Markets Framework inNeo-Carbon Energy 2050 Scenarios. Neo-Carbon Energy WP1 Working Paper 3/2016. LappeenrantaUniversity of Technology: Lappeenrantahttp://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-3-2016.pdf

Similä, Lassi & Koljonen, Tiina. (2016). Towards actor-based Neo-Carbon scenarios. Neo-Carbon Energy WP1Working Paper 2/2016. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland: Espoohttp://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-2-2016.pdf

Lang, Merja – Karjalainen, Joni & Heinonen, Sirkka (2016) Glocal Insights to Neo-Carbon Energy and ItsForerunners. NEO-CARBON ENERGY WP1 Working Paper 4/2016. Finland Futures Research Centre, ISBN 978-952-249-429-0, 112 p. www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-4-2016.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2016) Radical Transformation in a DistributedSociety - Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050. Neo-Carbon Energy WP1 Working Paper 1/2016. University ofTurku: Finland Futures Research Centrehttp://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-1-2016.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni and Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). Towards the Third Industrial Revolution.Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique I. eBook 6/2015. Finland Futures Research Centre, 74 p.http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook-6-2015.pdf

Sirkka Heinonen & Nick Balcom Raleigh (eds.) (2015), Neo-Carbon Energy At “Futures Studies TacklingWicked Problems” International Conference Turku, Finland – June 11 & 12, 2015. WP1 Working Paper 2/2015http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-2-2015.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni – Ruotsalainen, Juho & Parkkinen, Marjukka (2015) Neo-Carbon CoreConcepts in Exploring Transformative Energy Futures 2050, NEO-CARBON ENERGY WP1 Working Paper1/2015 http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-1-2015.pdf

More information: https://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/Pages/neo-fore.aspx

See also: www.neocarbonenergy.fi/impacts/