surprising similarities: recent monetary regimes of small economies
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Surprising Similarities: Recent Monetary Regimes of Small Economies. Andrew K. Rose Berkeley-Haas, CEPR and NBER. Key Question. Global Financial Crisis (GFC) spread globally, especially via capital (and trade) flows How did outcomes for small economies vary by monetary regime? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Surprising Similarities:Recent Monetary Regimes
of Small Economies
Andrew K. RoseBerkeley-Haas, CEPR and NBER
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Key Question
• Global Financial Crisis (GFC) spread globally, especially via capital (and trade) flows
• How did outcomes for small economies vary by monetary regime?– Did one monetary regime provide more insulation
from GFC spillovers?
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 2
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Focus
1. Recent Period– Panel of data, mostly focusing on period of and
since GFC (2007-2012)
2. Small Countries– Who’s Small? The non-large (>170 countries)
• Exclude the IMF Systemic-5• China, EMU, Japan, UK, USA
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Key Finding 1
• Monetary regimes of small economies have been stable recently
• Unexpected because:– Historical counter-cyclicality– Size of GFC and Great Recession
• Why the Stability? What’s New?– Countries that Float with Inflation Targeting– (Hard Fixes always around)
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 4
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Key Finding 2
• Remarkably Similar Recent Outcomes for Hard Fixers and Inflation Targeters– Business Cycles, Inflation, Capital Flows,
Responses to Capital Flows …
• Implausible or Boring?– Surprising since these appear to be two very
different monetary regimes– Banal for literature (since Baxter-Stockman), since
regimes matter for little except exchange rate
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 5
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Data Set
• Annual Panel• Standard sources (WDI, Polity IV, EFW, IFS,
BIS)
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Measuring the Monetary Regime
1. Issue: de jure or de facto?2. Issue: exchange rate or monetary regime?3. Issue: want recent span• Solution: de facto monetary regimes from
IMF Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER)– Potential problem: short span (2001-2012)
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 7
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de facto Alternatives
• Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger– Exchange rate regimes through 2004
• Reinhart and Rogoff– Exchange rate regimes through 2010
• Stone and Bhundia– Monetary Regimes 1990-2005
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Monetary Regimes of the Small
• AREAER: country-years split into 44 cells– Depends on
• Degree of exchange rate rigidity• orientation of fix (if any)• objective of float (inflation, money aggregate, ‘other’)
• My focus: two extreme monetary regimes– Floating with Inflation Target
• AREAER criteria deliver similar results to Mishkin’s 5
– Hard Fix
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2006 Monetary Regimes for Small
• 26 float with inflation target– 1 left by 2012 (Slovakia for EMU)
• 83 hard fix– No separate legal tender; currency board;
conventional peg• (Conv. Peg: Bahamas, Denmark, Latvia, Saudi Arabia,
Benin, Namibia …)• (Insensitive to inclusion: appendix)
– 23 left by 2012
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Inflation Targeters Continuously 2006-12
Armenia Australia Brazil Canada Chile
Colombia Czech Republic Guatemala Hungary Iceland
Indonesia Israel Korea, Rep. Mexico New Zealand
Norway Peru Philippines Poland Romania
South Africa Sweden Switzerland Thailand Turkey
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Inflation Targeter in 2006,Exited by 2012
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 12
Slovakia (Joined Euro)
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Hard FixersContinuously 2006-12
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 13
Antigua & Barb. Aruba Bahamas Bahrain Barbados
Belize Benin Bhutan Bosnia & Herz. Brunei
Bulgaria Burkina Faso Cameroon Cape Verde Cen. Afr. Rep.
Chad Comoros Congo, Rep. Cote d'Ivoire Denmark
Djibouti Dominica Ecuador El Salvador Eq. Guinea
Eritrea Fiji Gabon Grenada Guinea-Bissau
Hong Kong Jordan Kiribati Latvia Lesotho
Libya Lithuania Mali Marshall Islands Micronesia
Montenegro Morocco Namibia Nepal Niger
Oman Palau Panama Qatar Samoa
San Marino Saudi Arabia Senegal St. Kitts & Nevis St. Lucia
St. Vinc. &Gren. Swaziland Timor-Leste Togo Unit Arab Emir.
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Hard Fixers in 2006,Exited by 2012
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 14
Azerbaijan (Float, Other) Mauritania (Float, Other)
Belarus (Float, Other) Pakistan (Float, Mon Targ)
Cyprus (Euro) Seychelles (Float, Mon Targ)
Egypt (Float, Other) Slovenia (Euro)
Estonia (Euro) Solomon Islands (Float, Other)
Honduras (Soft Fix) Syria (Soft Fix)
Lebanon (Soft Fix) Trinidad & Tobago (Soft Fix)
Macedonia (Soft Fix) Ukraine (Float, Mon Targ)
Maldives (Soft Fix) Vanuatu (Soft Fix)
Malta (Euro) Vietnam (Soft Fix)
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Hard Fixers in 2006 and 2012but not continuously in between
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 15
Kuwait Turkmenistan Venezuela
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“Sloppy Center” Remaining
• Soft fixes (stabilized, crawling peg/band, pegged exchange rate within horizontal bounds);
• Floating with a monetary target (variants including crawl-like, managed, or free floats)
• Floating ‘Other’• 32 in 2006-2012 (17 with AREAER switches)
– 30 switched out by 2012
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 16
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Sloppy CenterContinuously 2006-12
(* indicates switched IMF de facto Monetary regime)
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 17
Afghanistan Algeria* Botswana Burundi* Cambodia*
Congo, D. Rep.* Costa Rica* Gambia, The Guinea* Haiti*
India Iraq* Jamaica* Kenya Kyrgyzstan*
Lao PDR* Liberia* Madagascar Malaysia Mauritius*
Mozambique Myanmar* Nicaragua Pap. N Guinea* Paraguay*
Singapore* Somalia Sudan* Tanzania Tonga
Uganda Zambia
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Sloppy Center in 2006, Exited by 2012
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 18
Albania (Inflat. Target) S Tome & Prin (Hard Fix)
Dom Repub. (Inflat. Target) Serbia (Inflat. Target)
Georgia (Inflat. Target) Uruguay (Inflat. Target)
Ghana (Inflat. Target) Zimbabwe (Hard Fix)
Moldova (Inflat. Target)
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Sloppy Center in 2006 and 2012 but not continuously in between
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 19
Angola Argentina Bangladesh Bolivia Croatia
Ethiopia Guyana Iran Kazakhstan Malawi
Mongolia Nigeria Russia Rwanda Sierra Leone
Sri Lanka Suriname Tajikistan Tunisia Uzbekistan
Yemen
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Durability of Monetary RegimesSmall Economies
--- Monetary Regime in 2006 ---
2012 Mon. Regime Inflat. Targeting (26) Hard Fix (83) Sloppy Center (62)
Inflation Targeting 25 0 7
Hard Fix 0 63 2
Sloppy Center 0 16 53
EMU Entrants 1 4 0
% continuously in regime since 2006
96% 72% 23%
% 2011 Global GDP 20% 4% 7%
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 20
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Sloppy Center: Turnover is Big and (Counter-) Cyclic
# Shifts in IMF De FactoMonetary Regime
Global RealGDP Growth
2002 27 2.92003 8 3.72004 7 5.02005 9 4.62006 7 5.32007 11 5.42008 28 2.82009 37 -0.62010 7 5.22011 21 4.02012 8 3.2
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Representative?
• Since 1970, regime turnover has been high and (counter-) cyclic
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 22
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Durability of Monetary Regimes , Small Economies: Historical Volatility
(excludes Germany, Japan, UK, USA)
% Continuously in same: All Countries Fixers
Reinhart-Rogoff regime, 1970-76
55% 59%
(% 1976 Global GDP) 12.3% 6.4%
Reinhart-Rogoff regime,1980-86
60 % 75%
(% 1986 Global GDP) 28.4% 3.3%
Levy-Yeyati-Sturzenegger regime, 1980-86
53 % 58 %
(% 1986 Global GDP) 9.1% 9.1%
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 23
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Historical Cyclicality of Monetary/Exchange Rate Regimes
Business Cycle Measure:
GDP:HP
GDP:BK
GDP:CF
GDP: Growth
GDP: Linear
Unemp.Rate
Stone-Bhundia (1990-2005)
-14.9**(4.0)
-16.7**(4.2)
-12.9**(4.0)
-.04(.02)
-5.3**(1.7)
.13*(.05)
Levy-Yey.-Sturzen. (1974-2004)
-1.6(1.2)
-2.0(1.2)
-2.1(1.2)
-.01(.01)
-1.4**(.4)
.04(.03)
Reinhart- Rogoff (1970-2006)
-1.7(1.1)
-1.9(1.1)
-2.0(1.1)
-.003(.007)
-1.1**(.4)
.07*(.03)
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 24
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Conclude: Stability from Inflation Targeting Regimes
• New• Significant• Acyclic
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 25
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Monetary Regimes by the Numbers: Counting Countries
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 26
Inf. Target Float
Sloppy Center
Hard FixersGlobal Growth
-20
24
6
05
01
001
50N
umb
er o
f Eco
nom
ies
2001 2007 2012
Glo
bal G
row
th
Large Economies excluded: China, EMU, Japan, UK, and USGrouping Small Economies by Monetary Regime
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Monetary Regimes by the Numbers: Sizing Up the Economies
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 27
Inf. Target Float
Sloppy Center
Hard Fixers
Global Growth
-20
24
6
0.2
.4F
ract
ion
of G
loba
l GD
P
2001 2007 2012
Glo
bal G
row
th
Large Economies excluded: China, EMU, Japan, UK, and USGlobal GDP of Small Economies by Monetary Regime
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Tangent: Determinants of Monetary Regimes
• Remarkably little known– Recent surveys in Klein and Shambaugh (2010),
Rose (2011)
• Literature: focus on (sluggish) levels• Here: use Stone-Bhundia regimes (through
2005, pre-dates GFC)– Size, income, institutions, openness
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 28
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Characteristics Across Monetary Regimes: Univariate Evidence
Averages: Sloppy Center Hard Fix Inflation Target Hard Fix = Inflation
Target (t-test)Log Population 16.5 15.5 16.6 -8.3**
Log R GDP p/c 8.9 9.4 9.7 -4.6**
Polity 5.7 3.1 9.4 -10.1**
Trade %GDP 84.5 88.8 68.7 5.0**
Chinn-Ito .4 .7 1.3 -4.3**
Inv Free, EFW 59.8 57.4 66.4 -5.2**
Fin Free, EFW 52.9 57.5 66.5 -4.8**
M2 %GDP 52.6 59.9 67.3 -2.1*
Credit %GDP 198.8 186.5 90.9 1.0
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 29
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Quantile Plots
• Compare (univariate) distribution of key characteristics across regimes
• Quantiles for different regimes plotted on different axes
• Similar distributions: data plotted along diagonal
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 30
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Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 31
67
89
1011
Har
d F
ixer
s
7 8 9 10 11Inflation Targeters
Log Real GDP p/c
1012
1416
1820
Har
d F
ixer
s
12 14 16 18 20Inflation Targeters
Log Population-1
0-5
05
10H
ard
Fix
ers
5 6 7 8 9 10Inflation Targeters
Polity
010
020
030
040
0H
ard
Fix
ers
0 50 100 150 200Inflation Targeters
Trade, %GDP
Quantile Plots for Small Economies, 2011
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Determinants of Monetary Regimes : Multivariate Evidence
Pop=0 .00** .00** .00** .00** .00** .00**
Income=0 .06 .03* .14** .29 .05* .03*
Polity=0 .00** .00** .00** .00** .00** .00**
Trade=0 .24 .27 .22 .38 .25
Fin Open=0
.56 .37 .28 .75 .20
Open=0 .37 .34 .34 .59 .15
Fix=IT .00** .02* .00** .00** .00** .01*
Obs 1108 1043 713 713 998 1074
Pseudo R2 .18 .20 .25 .25 .25 .19
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 32
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Hard to extend Univariate Success
• Multinomial Logit compares determinants of three regimes
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 33
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Determinants of Monetary Regimes : Coefficient Estimates
Hard Fix (versus Sloppy Center)
Log Population
-.33*(.14)
-.50**(.16)
-.58**(.18)
-.53**(.19)
-.60**(.17)
-.48**(.16)
Log Real GDP p/c
.52(.34)
.68*(.32)
.33(.36)
.33(.36)
.30(.32)
.59(.32)
Polity -.07*(.04)
-.09**(.03)
-.07(.04)
-.09*(.04)
-.10**(.03)
-.09**(.03)
Inflation Target Float (versus Sloppy Center)
Log Population
.60*(.26)
.50(.33)
.92**(.33)
.87**(.30)
.77*(.36)
.51(.33)
Log Real GDP p/c
.86*(.37)
.79*(.35)
.75*(.38)
.63(.41)
.96*(.39)
.95**(.37)
Polity .67**(.22)
.63**(.22)
.98**(.29)
.95**(.27)
.88**(.30)
.66**(.22)
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 34
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Limited Success, No Surprises
• Small countries: more likely to (hard-) fix, less likely to target inflation
• Democracies: less likely to fix, more likely to target inflation
• Marginal effects of income• No effect of real or financial openness• Fit consistently poor!
– Always hard to determine monetary regime
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 35
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Consequences of Monetary Regime
• Initially take regime choice as exogenous/random– Not so bad in practice– Will verify with IV/matching: results insensitive
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Compare Three Regimes
• Inflation Targeting Floats– Ex: Brazil, Korea, Mexico, Canada
• Hard Fixes– 60 durable (Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, Denmark)
• Sloppy Center– India, Russia, Iran
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Compare long-lived, durable regimes (IT/HF)
1. With sloppy center2. With each other• Throughout use period since 2006
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 38
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Quantile Plots: Outcomes for Hard Fixers Similar to Inflation Targeters• Unexpected a priori: two dis-similar monetary
regimes• But univariate distributions surprisingly alike,
much overlap
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 39
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Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 40
-50
050
Har
d F
ixer
s
-40 -20 0 20Inflation Targeters
Demeaned Real GDP Growth
-10
010
2030
Har
d F
ixer
s
0 5 10 15 20Inflation Targeters
CPI Inflation-5
00
50H
ard
Fix
ers
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20Inflation Targeters
Timor-Leste dropped
Current Account, %GDP
-20
-10
010
2030
Har
d F
ixer
s
-10 0 10 20Inflation Targeters
Government Budget, %GDP
Quantile Plots for Small Economies, 2007-2012
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Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 41
-20
020
4060
80H
ard
Fix
ers
-20 0 20 40 60Inflation Targeters
Capital Inflows, %GDP
-80
-60
-40
-20
020
Har
d F
ixer
s
-40 -20 0 20Inflation Targeters
Capital Outflows, %GDP-3
0-2
0-1
00
1020
Har
d F
ixer
s
-20 -10 0 10 20Inflation Targeters
Net Capital Flows, %GDP
-20
24
6H
ard
Fix
ers
-.5 0 .5 1 1.5Inflation Targeters
International Reserve Growth
Quantile Plots for Small Economies, 2007-2012
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Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 42
-40
-20
020
40H
ard
Fix
ers
-20 -10 0 10 20Inflation Targeters
Real Eff Exch Rate Change
05
1015
20H
ard
Fix
ers
0 5 10 15Inflation Targeters
Long Bond Yield-1
000
100
200
Har
d F
ixer
s
-100 0 100 200Inflation Targeters
Stock Market Change
-50
050
100
Har
d F
ixer
s
-50 0 50 100Inflation Targeters
Property Price Change
Quantile Plots for Small Economies, 2007-2012
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Ditto Statistical Analysis
• Some differences between hard fixers and inflation targeters … but more similarities
• Not power: effects of HF/IT on inflation similar, significantly different from SC
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Technical Stuff
• Panel LS on dummies for HF/IT– Omitted: sloppy center– Fixed time, random country effects (can’t do fixed)
• Regressands– Output consequences– Capital flows– Adjustment mechanisms
• Current account, capital controls, reserves, money, fiscal policy, real exchange rate appreciation, inflation
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 44
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Effects of Monetary Regimes 2007-12: Regression Evidence on Output
Regressand InflationTargeting
HardFix
IT = H Fix?(P-value)
IT = H Fix = 0?(P-value)
BK-Filtered GDP .006(.004)
-.003(.004)
.04* .10
HP-Filtered GDP -.002(.001)
-.004*(.001)
.13 .04*
CF-Filtered GDP -.02(.02)
-.00(.04)
.77 .76
Demeaned Growth
-1.9*(.8)
-1.4(.8)
.56 .04*
Time-Detrended GDP
-.04(.03)
-.08**(.02)
.16 .01**
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Effects of Monetary Regimes 2007-12: Regression Evidence on Capital Flows
Regressand InflationTargeting
HardFix
IT = H Fix?(P-value)
IT = H Fix = 0?(P-value)
Gross Capital Inflows
3.2(3.2)
-4.1(6.4)
.90 .57
Gross Capital Outflows
-.0(3.2)
-3.2(6.7)
.61 .87
Net Capital Flows
3.2(1.9)
.8(1.6)
.03* .09
Std Dev Capital Inflows (c/s)
5.5(4.2)
5.5(6.9)
1.0 .38
Std Dev Capital Outflows (c/s)
5.1(4.2)
7.0(7.4)
.82 .36
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Effects of Monetary Regimes 2007-12: Regression Evidence, Adjustment 1
Regressand InflationTargeting
HardFix
IT = H Fix?(P-value)
IT = H Fix = 0?(P-value)
Current Account
1.6(1.4)
3.4(5.5)
.73 .49
ExportGrowth
.01(.01)
.00(.01)
.70 .85
ImportGrowth
-.00(.01)
.00(.01)
.76 .94
Chinn-Ito Capital Mobility
-.1(.4)
-.5(.3)
.41 .24
Fin Freedom Change
.01(.01)
.00(.01)
.16 .16
Inv Freedom Change
.03**(.01)
.01(.01)
.01** .01**
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Effects of Monetary Regimes 2007-12: Regression Evidence, Adjustment 2
Regressand InflationTargeting
HardFix
IT = H Fix?(P-value)
IT = H Fix = 0?(P-value)
M2 Growth (%GDP)
-.01(.01)
.00(.01)
.18 .41
International Reserve Growth
-.4(.4)
-.5(.4)
.26 .44
Government Budget
.3(.8)
.7(.9)
.70 .74
Change in Budget
.5(.7)
-.4(.5)
.30 .57
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Effects of Monetary Regimes 2007-12: Regression Evidence, Prices
Regressand InflationTargeting
HardFix
IT = H Fix?(P-value)
IT = H Fix = 0?(P-value)
CPI Inflation -4.4**(.7)
-5.2**(.6)
.15 .00**
GDP Inflation -4.7**(.8)
-5.2**(.7)
.41 .00**
Real Effective Exchange Rate
-15.0(9.8)
-20.1*(9.6)
.13 .05*
Chg Real Effect Exchange Rate
-3.9(3.4)
-5.4(3.5)
.06 .07
Growth in Stock Prices
-4.5(3.5)
-11.8**(3.3)
.01** .00**
Bond Yields -1.0(.8)
-1.0(1.0)
.96 .43
Growth in Property Prices
2.3(4.8)
-1.1(5.1)
.35 .63Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 49
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Sensitive to Estimation Technique?
• Use IV (size and polity: determination model)– Business cycle, investment freedom results
disappear– Similar results for Inflation (*), stock prices
• Also use nearest-neighbor matching– Match on government spending (% GDP),
unemployment rate– Similar results, especially for inflation
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Summary
• Strong, Consistent Findings– Inflation lower (5%) for both hard fixers and
inflation targeters (than SC)– Net (but not gross) capital flows, change in
investment freedom higher for IT than HF
• Weak, Inconsistent/Marginal Finding– Worse business cycles, more real depreciation for
both HF and IT (than SC) – Stock prices declined more for HF than IT
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Most Intriguing Result
• Rarely significant difference between effects of inflation targeting and hard fixes
• Plausible? – These monetary regimes seem to vary wildly
• Amount of discretion• Role of exchange rate
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Consistent with Literature
• Rey (2013, italics added):“… analyses suggest monetary conditions are transmitted
from the main financial centre to the rest of the world through gross credit flows and leverage, irrespective of the exchange rate regime. This puts the traditional “trilemma” view of the open economy into question. Fluctuating exchange rates cannot insulate economies from the global financial cycle, when capital is mobile.”
– Note: Rey does not actually test relevance of exchange rate regime
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Monetary Regime Matters Surprisingly Little: An Old Idea
• Klein and Shambaugh (2010), and references stretching back to …
• Baxter and Stockman (1989):– “Aside from greater variability of real exchange
rates under flexible than under pegged nominal exchange-rate systems, we find little evidence of systematic differences in the behavior of macroeconomic aggregates or international trade flows under alternative exchange-rate systems.”
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Summary
• Small economies that float with an inflation target behave similarly to hard fixers over the post-bubble period – Artifact of methodology? (used a few)– Small data set? (>160 countries, 6 volatile years)– Literature unable to find significant differences
across monetary regimes• Perhaps there simply are few
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Conclusion: 1
• Bulgaria and Romania:– Small open EMs in EU, reasonable improving
institutions, similar income and size– Bulgaria in hard fix; Romania floats with IT
• Many other examples– Denmark and Sweden; Ecuador and Colombia; El
Salvador and Guatemala; Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana; Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania
• Similar countries choose different monetary regimes!
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Conclusion: 2
• Differences in monetary regimes can persist because they’re unimportant– Growth, output gap, inflation, fiscal policy, current
account, reserve growth … do not vary much with monetary regime
– So “insulation value” of different monetary regimes similar in practice
– Consistent with literature if initially counter-intuitive (boring more than implausible)
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Conclusion: 3
• Small countries now have new stable alternative to hard fix; float with inflation target– Both hard fixers and inflation-targeting floats have
survived GFC and aftermath• This monetary stability new (compare: 1930s/1970s)• Since countries in different monetary regimes behave
similarly, can’t easily differentiate between regimes
Rose: Monetary Regime Similarities 58