survey of tunisian public opinion february 12-22, 2014 august 19... · 2019. 12. 13. · june...

International Republican Institute

Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion

June 22-July 1, 2014

Detailed Methodology• The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute, by Tunisian owned and operated

marketing research firm, ELKA Consulting under the supervision of David Williams from Williams and Associatesof Salem, Massachusetts.

• Data was collected June 22-July 1, 2014, using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers.

• The sample was 1,253 adult Tunisians aged 18 and older.

• Interviews were conducted using a multi-stage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution.

• Stratification was based on three stages: a proportional division among Tunisia’s 24 governorates, proportional division of urban and rural categories, and proportional division by gender and age group according to the most up-to-date data from Tunisia’s National Statistics Institute collected in July 2009. The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province.

• Each of Tunisia’s 24 governorates was divided into territorial sections or districts. In every territorial section at least one point of survey was selected with the overall number of points determined by population density. In every point of survey, interviewers were called to do no more than 10 interviews. Points of survey were distributed proportionally between rural and urban areas in every governorate and in every geographical section of the governorate. Points of survey in a territorial section within a governorate were selected randomly.

• The Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within randomly selected households. The left-hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through an area probability sample.

• The overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.84 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level.

• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies.

• Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

• This poll was conducted with support from the Middle East Partnership Initiative.

2

http://www.iri.org/http://elka-consulting.com/en/http://www.williamspolls.com/http://mepi.state.gov/


Increased Demand for Democratic Dividends

How would you say that things are going in Tunisia these days? Are things going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

4

79%

46%

37%

45%

62%

32%

30%

19% 19%16%

47%

28%

14%

46%

54%

44%

30%

61%

67%

77% 77%

79%

48%

67%

7% 8%9% 11% 8% 7%

3% 4% 4% 5% 5%5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Mar-11 May-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14

Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know/Refused to answer

How would you describe the current economic situation in Tunisia?

5

4%

3%

2%

3%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

25%

22%

24%

23%

20%

26%

14%

18%

16%

28%

17%

46%

45%

37%

30%

37%

41%

33%

29%

25%

28%

22%

20%

28%

34%

41%

40%

29%

49%

52%

57%

40%

58%

5%

3%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer

Do politicians in Tunis care enough about local problems in the rest of the country?

6

5%

2%

4%

22%

24%

44%

5%

3%

4%

19%

21%

49%

7%

4%

6%

12%

20%

50%

7%

10%

4%

18%

23%

37%

4%

13%

2%

10%

70%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Don'tknow/Refused to

answer

Yes, but toomuch

Yes absolutely

Mainly yes

Mainly no

Not at all

Jun-14

Feb-14

Oct-13

Jun-13

Jan-13

Thinking about the current government, are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with the current* government’s performance?

7

7%

5%

7%

26%

17%

28%

29%

23%

48%

43%

21%

23%

18%

8%

13%

43%

40%

48%

5%

21%

2%

2%

4%

13%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Not very satisfied

Not satisfied at all Don't know/Refused to answer

*The Islamist-led government peacefully handed power to a nonpartisan technocrat government at the end of January 2014.

Which answer best describes your current economic situation?

8

32%28% 27%

31%

28%

22%

19% 19%

29%

22%

28%

43% 43%47%

49%48%

44%

48%46%

48%

38% 42%

22% 21% 19%

15%

20%

31%

25%28%

17%

33%

24%

3%5%

3% 2%

4% 3%5% 6% 5% 6%

6%

1% 3%

4% 3%

For each of the following issues, do you feel that the situation has become better, worse or stayed the same over the last year?

9

21%

18%

13%

7%

4%

4%

2%

3%

1%

1%

46%

38%

28%

24%

18%

16%

13%

16%

14%

7%

8%

12%

16%

16%

18%

14%

12%

17%

7%

8%

10%

8%

10%

9%

18%

24%

17%

17%

22%

22%

15%

13%

19%

14%

37%

37%

52%

35%

56%

62%

1%

10%

13%

30%

5%

5%

5%

12%

2%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Security

Development of independent media

Development of independent civil society

Organizing elections

Healthcare

Education

Sanitation/Trash removal

Government corruption

Economy

Living standards

Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse Much worse Don't know/Refused to answer

Thinking ahead to next year, do you expect your household’s financial situation to be better or worse?

10

35%

28%

17%

15%

12%

12%

10%

6%

7%

11%

10%

49%

43%

49%

47%

45%

44%

44%

33%

37%

51%

45%

6%

12%

14%

16%

16%

18%

16%

21%

11%

14%

14%

4%

4%

8%

10%

11%

12%

12%

11%

11%

7%

8%

2%

3%

5%

7%

8%

8%

9%

12%

12%

5%

10%

4%

11%

8%

6%

7%

6%

9%

18%

22%

12%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Much better Somewhat betterSame Somewhat worseMuch worse Don’t know/Refused to answer


Faith in Democracy at a Critical Juncture

Thinking about Tunisia’s current political system, do you believe Tunisia is a democracy at present?

5%

15%

36%

39%

5%

8%

26%

40%

20%

5%

11%

14%

36%34%

5%7%

15%

35%37%

5%

Full democracy Nearly full democracy Flawed democracy Not a democracy atall

Don't know/Refusedto answer

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45% Jun-14 Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13

12

How satisfied are you with democracy in Tunisia at present?

(asked of respondents who chose full, nearly full or flawed democracy, n=698)

13

9%

11%

15%

13%

43%

43%

55%

21%

23%

19%

15%

16%

19%

8%

65%

8%

8%

8%

1%

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Not very satisfied

Not satisfied at all Don't know/Refused to answer

If you had a choice between a stable and prosperous Tunisia that was ruled by an authoritarian government or a democratic government that led to an unstable

and insecure Tunisia, which would you choose?

14

48%

70%

55%52% 52%

55%53% 53%

43%

34%

26%

38%41% 42%

39% 39% 40%

50%

18%

4%7% 7% 6% 6%

9%7%

7%

Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Democratic government Authoritarian government Don't know/Refused to answer

I am going to read you three statements. Please indicate which is closest to your own opinion.

6%

29%

20%

46%

11%

30%

15%

44%

7%

26%

16%

52%

6%

30%

24%

40%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused toanswer

In some circumstances anon-democratic

government can bepreferable

For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what

form of government we have

Democracy is preferableto any other kind of

government

Jun-14 Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13

15


Priority Issues: The Economy, Unemployment and Security

What would you say are the most important problems facing Tunisia as a whole?

(open-ended, top responses only)

17

First mention Second mention Third mention Total

Economy/Financial crisis 23% 27% 14% 64%

Unemployment 27% 22% 13% 62%

Terrorism 22% 10% 12% 44%

Security 9% 11% 8% 28%

Political conflicts/Tensions 5% 4% 5% 14%

Corruption/Transparency 3% 3% 5% 11%

Standard of living/

Increasing prices3% 4% 3% 10%

Violence/Delinquency/

Vandalism2% 4% 6% 12%

Strikes/Sit-ins 2% 2% 3% 7%

Elections

Which of the following should be a top priority for the current government?

(open-ended, top responses only)

18

Issue First mention Second mention Third mention Total

Economic development/

Economic reform29% 30% 15% 74%

Employment 35% 19% 12% 66%

Living standards 12% 16% 16% 44%

Security 12% 13% 15% 40%

Social reforms 2% 4% 5% 12%

Reform education system 2% 2% 3% 6%

Regional development 1% 2% 4% 7%

Corruption/Transparency 1% 2% 3% 6%

Organize elections 1% 2% 1% 4%

Health sector 1% 1% 1% 3%

Achieve the goals of the

revolution

Has your household’s financial situation become better or worse over the last year?

19

8%

9%

6%

6%

7%

6%

8%

7%

5%

5%

6%

27%

24%

29%

27%

30%

31%

31%

32%

31%

31%

32%

31%

37%

31%

30%

21%

21%

23%

22%

20%

20%

21%

18%

15%

18%

19%

21%

24%

19%

18%

21%

21%

17%

18%

15%

14%

17%

21%

18%

18%

22%

23%

23%

24%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Are you seeking a job?

(all respondents except those who are retired, n=1,142)

20

Yes35%

No65%

What kind of job are you looking for?

21

1%

13%

7%

25%

3%

6%

9%

8%

4%

10%

14%

4%

12%

8%

10%

3%

8%

10%

10%

6%

21%

11%

14%

6%

11%

3%

7%

10%

14%

6%

18%

13%

7%

3%

4%

5%

7%

7%

9%

10%

15%

16%

18%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Don't know/Refused to answer

Commerce/Entrepreneurship

Tourism

Any sector

Healthcare

Education

Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing

Professional services

Information/Communications technology

Manufacturing/Mining/Construction

Government


(open-ended, all respondents seeking a job)

(Jun 2013 n=431; Oct 2013 n=454; Feb 2014 n=401; Jun 2014 n=396)

What do you think is the best way to increase jobs in Tunisia?

22

10%

3%

3%

4%

3%

6%

11%

13%

7%

37%

6%

3%

4%

2%

6%

13%

13%

7%

45%

4%

5%

2%

5%

5%

6%

9%

9%

10%

39%

7%

1%

3%

3%

3%

5%

6%

6%

10%

13%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%


Other

Support the private sector

Reduce government regulation

End strikes/Sit-ins

Increase tourism

Reduce corruption

Improve security

Expand public sector

Improve education/Vocational training

Increase foreign direct investment

Jun-14

Feb-14

Oct-13

Jun-13

(open-ended, June 2013 n=431; Oct 2013 n=454; Feb 2014 n=401; June 2014 all respondents)

Should the government provide assistance in finding a job?

23

Yes72%

No25%

Don't know/Refused to answer3%

What kind of help should the government provide?

(open-ended)

24

8%

3%

5%

18%

66%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%


Eliminate corruption

Other

Give loans

Employment

In your opinion, has public security improved in Tunisia since the 2011 elections?What about in your neighbourhood or community specifically?

25

72%

77%

27%

21%

1%

3%

Myneighborhood/

Community

Tunisia

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer

How much do you trust each of the following to protect your neighborhood?

26

40%

43%

35%

44%

52%

64%

52%

44%

48%

30%

29%

18%

16%

83%

86%

80%

83%

87%

89%

84%

32%

27%

30%

33%

27%

23%

23%

16%

18%

12%

11%

11%

9%

9%

7%

13%

11%

9%

7%

10%

10%

13%

14%

8%

7%

6%

9%

8%

8%

8%

4%

7%

5%

2%

3%

2%

3%

1%

1%

1%

17%

16%

20%

15%

14%

8%

16%

23%

23%

34%

31%

39%

44%

5%

3%

5%

3%

3%

2%

5%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

10%

4%

16%

25%

27%

27%

1%

1%

1%

27

45%

15%

5%

12%

23%

Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer

Do you agree or disagree with the decision to disband the Leagues for the Protection of the Revolution?

*The Leagues for Protection of the Revolution are an example of the citizen security groups referenced on the previous slide.


Political Parties and Campaigns

In general, are political parties doing a lot, enough, little or nothing to address the needs of people like you?

29

2%

2%

2%

1%

20%

12%

15%

10%

31%

22%

27%

21%

42%

61%

52%

65%

4%

3%

4%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

A lot Enough Little Nothing Don't know/Refused to answer

Which of the following statements best describes the role that political parties play in Tunisia?

30

4%

6%

33%

57%

4%

5%

29%

62%

4%

6%

33%

57%

3%

5%

26%

65%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%


Political parties representpeople's interests and seek

solutions to benefit the country

Political parties can play apositive role in Tunisia, but they

have not yet done so

Political parties are onlyinterested in power and personal

gain


Which of the following statements best matches your own opinion of the role that religion should play in government and law making?

31

5%

16%

51%

9%

19%

3%

20%

50%

8%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know

Islamic texts should form thefoundations of all policy and law

making

The principles of Islam should beone consideration but not the onlyconsideration when making policy

or law

Religious views should not providea source of justification for a

policy or law

Religion should be completelyabsent from government decision

making

Jun-14 Feb-14

Did you vote in the October 23, 2011 national constituent assembly elections?

32

Yes60%

No40%

For whom did you vote in thenational constituent assembly elections?

(open-ended)

33

40%

28%

7%

5%3% 2%

1% 1%

5% 5% 4%

40%

27%

6%4% 3%

2% 2%

34

16%

18%

34%

28%

4%

19%

15%

29%30%

7%

17%

19%

24%

35%

5%

20%

14%

30%31%

6%

I intend to vote for thesame party

I do not intend to vote I intend to vote for adifferent party

I have not yet decidedwhom I will vote for

Don't know/Refused toanswer

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%Jun-14 Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13

(only those who voted in 2011: Jun 2013 n=799; Oct 2013 n=776; Feb 2014 n=739; Jun 2014 n=754)

Looking ahead to the next elections, do you intend to vote for the same party or a different party?

35

48%

26%

22%

3%

Yes

No

Undecided

Don't know

Do you intend to vote in the next election?(only those who did not vote in 2011, n=499)

For the next elections, which of the following choices would be best for Tunisia?

36

8%

9%

45%

13%

26%

13%

12%

48%

9%

19%

11%

13%

41%

8%

26%

18%

8%

43%

9%

23%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%


Many small political partiescompeting against each other

A few large parties competingagainst each other

A few coalitions of many smallpolitical parties

A few coalitions of large parties


If you had to choose a political party, for which would you vote in the next elections?

(open-ended)

37

62%

5%

4%

3%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

10%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Undecided/Don'tknow

Refused to answer

No one/Won't vote

Other

CPR

Afek Tounes

Al Jabha alChaabia

Ettakatol

Al Aridha alChaabia

Ennahdha

Nida Tunis

If you had to choose from the following political parties, for whom would you vote in the next elections?

(closed list)

38

49%

5%

2%

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

5%

14%

19%

1%

39%

7%

6%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

14%

20%

38%

4%

7%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

13%

24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

I will not vote

Undecided/Don'tknow

Refused to answer

Other

CPR

Al Aridha alChaabia

Afek Tounes

Al Joumhouri

Ettakatol

Al Jabha al Chaabia

Ennahdha

Nida Tunis

Jun-14

Feb-14

Oct-13

39

4%

33%

7%

1%

2%

2%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

5%

3%

5%

12%

16%

2%

51%

9%

40

3%

25%

1%

4%

4%

4%

5%

6%

6%

8%

11%

23%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Refused to answer

Don't know

Amna Mansour

Mustapha Ben Jaafar

Ahmed Nejib Chebbi

Hamma Hammami

Ali Larayedh

Hammadi Jebali

Kamel Morjen

Moncef Marzouki

Kais Saiid

Beji Kaied Sebsi

If there was one person in Tunisia that you would like to see as president, who would that be?

(closed list)

I would like to ask you about your impressions of the following people. Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove

or disapprove of the following?

41

50%

72%

27%34%

31%25%

51%

23%

34%27%

16%

24%19%

5%

26%

14%

22%

31%

6%16%

30%

-42%

-18%

-45%-53%

-60%

-51%

-30%

-66%

-50%

-59% -58%

-41%

-30%

-70% -58%

-33%-30%

-35%

-26%

-44% -43%

9%

54%

-18% -19%

-30%-26%

21%

-42%

-16%

-32%

-42%

-17%-11%

-65%

-32%

-20%

-8%-4%

-20%-28%

-13%

-75%

-55%

-35%

-15%

5%

25%

45%

65%

Beji

Kaie

d S

ebsi

Mehdi Jom

aa

Neji

b C

hebbi

Ham

madi Jebali

Moncef

Marz

ouki

Maya J

eri

bi

Lotf

i Ben J

eddou

Rachid

Ghanouchi

Must

apha B

en J

aafa

r

Ham

ma H

am

mam

i

Hachm

i H

am

di

Houcin

e A

bass

i

Yass

ine B

rahim

Abu Iyadh

Ali L

ara

yedh

Mohse

n M

arz

ouk

Moham

ed H

am

di

Taie

b B

acouche

Noom

ane F

ehri

Slim

Ria

hi

Sam

ir D

ilou

Approve Disapprove Difference


Sources of Information andView of the Media

How often do you keep informed about the National Constituent Assembly’s work?

43

10%

18%

12%

14%

46%

1%

Once a day Once a weekOnce a month Less than once a monthNever Don't know/Refused to answer

Where do you get your information about the work of the National Constituent Assembly?(n=677)

44

Thinking about Tunisia media in general, do you trust the media to provide accurate and unbiased information?

45

4%

10%

28%

41%

17%

3%

12%

26%

42%

17%

3%

9%

34%

37%

17%

3%

9%

26%

42%

20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%


I trust the media for all news stories

I trust the media for most news

I trust the media for some news

I rarely or never trust the media

Jun-14 Feb-14 Jun-13 Oct-13

Which national radio station do you listen to get your news?

46

3%

34%

4%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

3%

5%

7%

8%

20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%


I don’t listen to the radio

Other

Radio Monastir

Oasis FM

IFM

Radio Gafsa

Radio Echaanbi

Radio Tataouine

Radio Kef

Zaituna FM

Radio Sfax

Radio Jeunes

Shems FM

Radio Tunis National Channel

Jawhara FM

Mosaique FM

(open-ended)

Which national television station do you watch to get your news?

(open-ended)

47

44%

23%

15%

7%

1%

Which specific media source do you trust most for your political news?

(open-ended)

48

22%

1%

1%

1%

4%

4%

1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

4%

8%

8%

9%

29%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Don't Know

No one

Other

Other Newspaper

Other Radio

Other Television

National 2

Al Arabia

Internet

Facebook

Hannibal TV

Aljazeera TV

France 24

Nessma TV

Ettounsiya TV

National 1

Which specific media source do you trust the least for your political news?

(open-ended)

49

43%

1%

3%

4%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

4%

6%

6%

11%

13%

Don't Know

Other Radio

Other Newspaper

Other TV

Al Arabia

France 24

Al Chourouk

Zitouna TV

National 2

Al Hiwar Ettounsi TV

Internet

Facebook

Hannibal TV

Ettounsiya TV

Aljazeera TV

Nessma TV

National 1

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Where are you most likely to get your local news and information?

50

First mention Second mention Third mention Total

Tunisian television 57% 25% 5% 87%

Radio 9% 25% 13% 47%

Internet 23% 10% 5% 38%

Gatherings at public places 4% 10% 7% 21%

Newspaper 1% 7% 12% 20%

SMS

Do you have access to the Internet?

51

52%

48%

Yes No

66%

20%

4%

1%8%

Home Mobile Work School Other

If yes, where do you

usually access it? (n=601)


Demographics

Demographics

50%50%

Gender

Male Female

50%

22%

20%

8%

Age

18-35 36-49

50-65 66 and older

Demographics

54

66%

34%

Dwelling Location

Urban Rural

84%

15%

Yes No

Do you or your family own your own home?

Demographics

11%

24%

36%

4%

14%

11%

Education

Never went to school

Primary school

Secondary school

Professional training

University

Graduate degree

93%

7%

Arabic-speaking

Yes No

55

Demographics

35%

16%9%

26%

15%

Demographics

57

19%

39%

27%

9%

3% 1% 2%

Less than 200 dinars Between 201 and 500 dinars

Between 501 and 1,000 dinars Between 1,001 and 1,500 dinars

Between 1,501 and 2,500 dinars More than 2,501 dinars


How much does your household earn per month?

www.IRI.org | @IRIGlobal


(202) 408-9450 | [email protected]

Williams and

AssociatesSalem, Massachusetts

www.WilliamsPolls.com
http://elka-consulting.com/en/http://elka-consulting.com/en/http://www.williamspolls.com/http://www.williamspolls.com/http://www.iri.org/http://www.iri.org/http://mepi.state.gov/http://mepi.state.gov/

survey of tunisian public opinion february 12-22, 2014 august 19... · 2019. 12. 13. · june...

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