Sustainability and Equity:A better future for all

UNDP Human Development Report 2011Development and Transition (18)

Moscow9 November 2011

Key messagesGlobal:

World has made major progress during past two decades . . . . . . But this progress is increasingly threatened by

unsustainable environment policies and practices Environmental sustainability and equity are closely linked

Sustainability is about inter-generational equity . . . . . . But what about intra-generational equity? More equal societies have better development indicators

“Double burden”: Many of the world’s poor bear environmental risks as well as income poverty,

These issues will be taken up at UNCSD in Rio (June 2012)Regional:

Transition economies of the former Soviet Union, Balkans, new EU member states compare well with other regions . . . . . . But there are causes for concern as well

Concrete examples of how UNDP can help

Possible development consequences of environmental unsustainability

Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life expectancy, years

of education

The world is warming—Implications?

Sea levels: Rising

Natural disasters: Average annual number has doubled in last 25 years

Greatest impact born by low HDI countries

• Greatest forest cover losses (11% since 1990)

• Poorest households, countries can not afford to reforest

Precipitation patterns also changing

Avg. value, 1951 - 1980

Avg. value, 2000s

“Double burden” of income poverty, poor access to key resources

90%80%

35%

Poor households are likely to:

• cook with wood, dung• not have access to improved water, sanitation services

Multiple deprivations:

• 80% of poor households experience two or more deprivations • 29% face all three

Particular burden on women

Form of deprivatio

n

How much finance is needed?

For climate change mitigation, adaptation: Estimates are uncertain . . . . . . Ranging from $500 billion to $2 trillion,

annuallyFor water and sanitation: $60 billion

annuallyMost of this must come from private

sector . . . . . . But how effective are carbon markets?

Public finance and climate change

ODA needed to leverage carbon markets Promote market deepening by reducing:

Risks Transactions costs

Larger role for Russia, BRICS, non-OECD/DAC donors?

Financial transactions tax? EU has pledged to introduce this in 2012 . . . . . . But not for development, carbon finance

How much finance is coming?

Source: The Economist (5 November 2011)

• Copenhagen summit (2009): “Green climate fund”

• Developed countries are to provide $100 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries by 2020

• “New, additional monies”• 2010: $97 billion in carbon finance flows

• $93 billion—mitigation• Private sector: $55 billion• ODA:

• $39 billion—mostly via development banks . . .

• . . . Most not “new and additional”

• Carbon markets: “only” provided $2.3 billion

Rio + 20—Issues

• Financing the transition to low-carbon growth?• MDGs after 2015?

• Sustainable development goals?

• Reform of global environmental governance?

• Binding emissions targets?

Regional dimension

Transition economies of the former Soviet Union, Balkans, new EU member states: Compare well with other regions . . . . . . But there are causes for concern as

wellThere are good examples to be

replicated, scaled up Public sector energy efficiency in Croatia

UNDP can help with this

Russia, transition economies: High/very high HDI levels

OECD countries (2004 new EU member states),

Croatia

Russia, other FSU, plus Turkey, Southeast Europe

Moldova, Central Asia (except Kazakhstan)

Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life expectancy, years of

education

Forest cover is returning

2%

1%

-8%

-10%

-12%

Change in square kilometres of forest

coverage, 1990-2010

Greenhouse gas emissions: Global convergence? . . .

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

Kaza-khstanRussiaUkraineGlobal

Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP

UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.

. . . Or are transition economies still outliers?

Ukr

aine

Kazak

hsta

n

China

Indi

a

Russia

Globa

l

Finla

nd

Germ

any

Nor

way

Swed

en

1.71.6 1.6

1.4

1.0

0.5

0.2 0.20.1 0.1

Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP

(2008)

UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.

Many transition economies beat the global average

Global Slovakia Croatia Armenia Lithuania Albania Latvia

0.5

0.4

0.3 0.30.3 0.3

0.2

Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP

(2008)

UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.

Carbon finance: not coming

Joint implemen-tation projects

approved*

Europe and Central AsiaRest of the world

400

Clean development mechanism projects

approved*

Europe and Central AsiaRest of the world

212

John O’Brien, “Carbon finance: Opportunities and reality”, Development and Transition

*As of 31 August 2011

Carbon finance: What is to be done?

Reduce high transactions costs for projects, by: Accelerating project approval Increasing project size “Bundling” projects together

Capacity development for: Designated national

authorities Private companies working in:

Energy efficiency Renewables

Project beneficiaries

UNDP can help—Croatia

UNDP, Global Environmental Facility programme on public-sector energy efficiency

Results (2006-2010): Energy systems in 5900 public buildings refitted Energy audits conducted in 1346 public buildings $18 million in initial annual public-sector energy

savings Annual CO2 emissions reduced by 63,000 tons “Energy charter” signed by all 127 municipalities 17 new companies, 150 energy efficiency expert jobs

created $4 million in UNDP-GEF funding leveraged $30

million in additional investment Louisa Vinton, “Going green with Gašpar”, Development and Transition

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We can make a difference

Rio—Big picture: Need to make a push for sustainable development

UNDP can make a difference on the ground, with local partners and governments