Sustainability & Biofuels

Biodiesel Workshop

Brookhaven National Laboratory

May 8, 2008

John Nettleton, Cornell University

jsn10@cornell.edu

Sustainability & Biofuels

“If you can get them asking the wrong question, you won’t have to worry about the answers..” Thomas Pynchon in Gravity’s Rainbow

“Our national faith so far has been: “There’s always more” …People of intelligence and ability seem now to be genuinely embarrassed by any solution to any problem that does not involve high technology, a great expenditure of energy, or a big machine.”

Wendell Berry in ‘Faustian Economics: Hell hath no limits’, Harper’s Magazine, May 2008

Sunshine Limits to Growth

• 2nd Law- All production is consumption• Sustainable Development (SD): minimizes resource

use, attends to ‘life cycle costs, end use efficiencies, distribution, etc.

• 900 m² (~.1ha) cropland/per capita food energy• Each hectare supports 5.5 people ( 180 day)• (study) pop density at 3 persons/ha• Reach ‘sunshine limit’ in 35 years

Sunshine Limits to Growth

• 2nd Law- All production is consumption• SD: minimizes resource use, attends to ‘life cycle costs, end

use efficiency, distribution, etc.

• 900 m² (~.1ha) cropland/per cap food energy• Each hectare supports 5.5 people ( 180 day)• (now) pop density at 3 persons/ha• Reach ‘sunshine limit’ in 35 years

• William Rees (Rees’s piece in Ecologist, 1996), draws on base data from 1986 1986+ 35 = 2021

Sustainable Development What’s in a Name?

#1: “..to meet the needs of the present generation w/o compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs.” (Bruntland Commission, 1987)

#2: “..development without growth- w/o growth in throughput beyond environmental regenerative and absorptive capacity.” (Herman Daly, 1996)

Supply & Demand

• Need equal attention to increased supply balanced with reduced demand: “just the right amount” (Goldilocks)

• Fuel selection questions addressed via attention to sustainable public policy and education, planning and leadership

• Massive economy+widespread practice= measurable impact (The North Slope)

Projected biofuel consumption (without and with Gov’t Measures on Climate Change (MTOE)

2010 2015 2030

Europe 14.8- 16.4 18- 21.5 26.6- 35.6

U.S. 14.9- 16.4 19.8- 27.5 22.8- 42.9

Brazil 8.3- 8.6 10.4- 11.0 23. – 23.

China 0.7- 1.2 1.5- 2.7 7.9- 13.

India 0.1 – 0.1 0.2 –0.3 2.4- 4.5

Total 41.5- 48.8 54.4- 73.0 92.4- 146.7

From “The Big Question: Can Biofuels help prevent global warming…”Steve Connor, Independent 15 January 2008

Not the Silver Bullet

• Physics: to cut U.S. fleet fuel demand ~10% = planting 1/6 of all arable land (OECD, 2005, solar gain at 4w/m²)

• Challenge: making it to ‘2nd gen’ crop supply + Δ demand

New York Dairy Farm Prototype

• Farm of 500 acres + 100 head dairy cattle: Soybean prod. = 70% of needed feed (meal)

• Purchase price for feed < sale price of BD. Operation cash positive before sale of dairy products.

• Producing meal, BD sale saves farmers feed costs adding 34K gals/ BD to supply

F ig . 3 . E nvironm ental effects of bioenergy sources. (A ) G H G reduction for com plete life cycles from biofuel production through com bustion, representing reduction relative to em issions from com bustion of fossil fuels for w hich biofuel substitu tes. ( B ) Fertilizer and (C ) pesticide application rates are U .S . averages for corn and soybeans ( 29). For L IH D biom ass, application rates are based on analyses of table S2 (10).

‘Carbon Negative Biofuels from LIHD Biomass’, Tilman et al, Science Vol. 314

Energy in Agriculture

• Most (> 90%) energy in used crop prod is oil and/or NG: energy inputs have cut labor inputs from 500 hrs./acre to ~4 hrs./acre

• “If fertilizer, pesticides and partial irrigation w/drawn, corn yields drop from 13 to 3 bushels/acre” (Pimental)

• LIHD perennials yield 238% more over decade (NY has 1.5 million arable acres lying fallow)

Green ‘Niche Fuels’ in NY (2008-15)

• Significant and measurable public health benefits with BD blends for heating fuel & school bus fleets

• Benefits for bldg management groups (RGGI)

• New markets for ‘cool weather’ crops/refined WVO; LIHD crops sustainable over the long-term

• Water-borne transport for regional producers in response to rising freight costs

• Institutional savings with onsite WVO

Sustainable Biofuel Policy Tasks• NY Region - Study reg’l capacity ‘cool weather crops

- Frame municipal/regional policies leading to ‘best practices (see Carter principles for biofuels)

- Develop transport/refining infrastructure

• National - Revisit protectionist trade barriers (Brazil)

- Design/develop balanced transport policies

- Integrate RGGI and carbon tax policies for biofuels

- Expand research re LIHD and other feedstock methods

• Global - Work with EU and learn RTFO lessons

- Collaborate on international standards re sustainabilty