sustainability impact assessments of policy changes ... · consumption and end‐of‐life of wood...
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Sustainability impact assessments of policy changes –
recent development
of analytical modeling in Europe
Marcus Lindner, Risto Päivinen, Hans Verkerk,
Taru Palosuo, Tommi Suominen
European Forest Institute, Joensuu
Introduction –
Sustainability Assessments
• Sustainable yield of forest resources (Hans Carl von Carlowitz; 1713)
• Sustainable world system (Dennis L. Meadows; 1972: The Limits of
Growth)
• Sustainable development (Brundtland Report 1987)
• Environmental, social, and economic pillars of sustainability
(cf. EU sustainable development strategy, Gothenburg 2001 and EU
Council decision 2006)
2008: Sustainable resource use AND sectoral value chains
The sustainability concept evolved over the centuries
What are the effects of policy decision on social, economic and environmental sustainability?
Two large European Integrated [research] Projects study this
question with analytical tools
• SENSOR develops science‐based forecasting Sustainability
Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT). They allow the assessment of
land use policy effects on sustainable development at
regional scale for Europe.
Forestry is covered as one of six sectoral land uses
• EFORWOOD develops a Tool for the Sustainability Impact
Assessment (ToSIA) of Forestry‐Wood Chains.
The complete forest value chains are covered, including forest resource management, forest‐industry interactions, consumption and end‐of‐life of wood based products
SENSOR: Sustainability Impact Assessment of multifunctional land use
www.sensor-ip.org409/06/2008 www.sensor-ip.eu
Provision of work
Land based
production
Infra- structure
Abiotic resources
Biotic resources
Ecosystem processed
Human health &
recreation
Cultural & aesthetic
values
Industry &
services
Agriculture ForestryNature
ConservationTransport
Infrastructure Energy Tourism
Impact assessment
Social Economic Environment509/06/2008 www.sensor-ip.eu
Indicators impacts (~40)
Impacts are calculated for environmental, social and economical dimensions of
sustainability
Land use policy scenario
Land-use allocation model
(CLUE-s)Macro-
economical model
(NEMESIS)
Forest sector model
(EFISCEN)
Policy variableIn
dica
tor v
alue
Dead wood
Forest fire risk
Carbon sequestration
Agricultural model (CAPRI)
SENSOR Model Framework
Jansson et al. 2008
EFISCEN modelling framework
Age-class
Vol
ume-
clas
s
Wood demand
Manage- ment
strategy
Forest area
change
09/06/2008 7
Deadwood Carbon stock Fellings and increment
Biomass revenue
Workforce
Include social and economical indicators in EFISCEN
Indicator selection criteria
– Relevant indicators (e.g. MCPFE)
– Compatible with EFISCEN structure
Selected indicators:
Further work on forest indicators
09/06/2008 8
09/06/2008 9
Normalised indicator impacts in 2030
Baseline (2005) = 1Nordic
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Deadwood
Carbon
Resource utilisationBiomass revenues
Workforce
Baseline Biodiversity Bio-energy
Central and Alpic
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Deadwood
Carbon
Resource utilisationBiomass revenues
Workforce
Baseline Biodiversity Bio-energy
Example of indicator impacts
The EU Integrated Project
EFORWOODTools for Sustainability Impact Assessment of the Forestry-Wood Chain
The EU Integrated Project
EFORWOODTools for Sustainability Impact Assessment of the Forestry-Wood Chain
Main project objective is to develop a Tool for the Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) of Forestry-Wood Chains (FWC)
ToSIA approach to Sustainability Impact Assessment of Forest‐Wood Chains
ToSIA approach to Sustainability Impact Assessment of Forest‐Wood Chains
ToSIA measures volume flows and
sustainability indicators
Based on:- already existing European & international sustainability
indicator Sets EU-SIAGuidelines
32 topics -- --
Eurostat – SDI 15 level 1- indicators
47 level 2- indicators
99 level 3 – indicators
MCPFE --- --- 35 indicators
CSD 15 themes 40 sub-themes 60 indicators
PAIS 5 themes 16 issues 57 indicators
Indicator development (Ewald Rametsteiner et al.)
Sustainability Indicators
Economic Environmental Social
Gross value added
Production costs
Resource / material
use
Total production
Investment and
research &
development
Energy generation and use
Greenhouse gas emissions and carbon stocks
Transport distance and freight
Water use
Soil, water and air pollution
Generation of waste
Forest biodiversity
Forest resources
Employment
Wages and salaries
Occupational safety
and health
Education and
Training
14.1. Greenhouse gas emissions
14.2. Carbon storage 14.3. Greenhouse gas
balance 17.1. Area of forest and other wooded land 17.2. Growing stock 17.3. Balance of net increment and annual
fellings
ToSIA approach to Sustainability Impact Assessment of Forest‐Wood Chains
Sustainability indicators are linked to
all production processes
= a production process in a selected FWC = production processes in optional FWCs
Forest Resources ManagementForest Resources Management
A production processStages Forest to Industry InteractionsForest to Industry Interactions
Industrial Processing and Manufacturing Industrial Processing and Manufacturing
Industry to consumer interactionsIndustry to consumer interactions
Options
Re- c y cl in gEn d-of -l if e
The analytical framework
The analytical framework
FWC is a chain of processes
M2M2
A production processStages M3M3
M4M4
M5M5
Re- cyclingEnd-of-
life
Sustainability Indicator Calculation1.
Take indicator value per unit of reference flow
2.
Multiply with material flow through a process
3.
= sustainability indicator value for the process
0,2 person hours/ m³/sawing
A x 10 m³ = 2 person hours
0,4 person hours/ m³/sawing
B x 10 m³
= 4 person hours
Aggregation of indicator results
• Identify same indicator for different processes in calculated chains
• Sum up indicators of the same ID in a calculated chain
Employment (ID 003895)
TOTAL
3411321
M2M2
A production processStages M3M3
M4M4
M5M5
Re - c y cli ngEnd-of -
li fe
42.5 person hours
50 person hours
Impact of changing material flow A to material flow B on social indicator ’employment’ =
Employment hours B – employment hours A =
50 – 42.5 = + 7.5
Sustainability ImpactImpact
Assessment
How to compare changes in different indicator values?
If the impact on employment is + 7,5 h but at the same
time waste generation increases +2%,
is the total impact positive or negative?
Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)
compares apples and oranges
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
Converts apples and oranges into €
Sustainability Impact Evaluation
Software for Weighting of indicators
Software for Ranking of alternatives
1) Production of pellets – used in single family homes
Source: Vapo
Source: Vapo
Source: Vapo
Source: Vapo
2) Chipping of biomass – used in single family home via district heating
Jouko Parviainen, Josek Oy Source:Vapo
ToSIA application: comparing two different bio‐ energy supply chains for heating a private household
Results of the comparison
Based on: one reference year (2007)a certain land area (1803 ha)
P Chain P&C Chain increase in %
318 737 595 078 875 604 318 1 6491 609 194
0,99 2,18 12063 126 1010 5 382 n.a.
9.1 transport distance 272 416 363 846 349.2 freight transported 1 679 2 822 6810.1 energy use 1 942 126 2 348 295 2110.2 heat generation 6 404 935 20 725 555 224
7. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
9. Transport
10. Energy
8. Maintenance of soil quality
Indicator
1. Production costs3. Total heat consumption4. Employment
Unit
euro
MJ
person a
tons CO2 eqv.
kg
tkm
tons
MJ
MJ
a)
effects of additional extraction of forest biomass on
sustainability
Indicator P & C Chain P ChainGHG bal.EmploymentEnergy bal.CostsSoil maint.
ToSIA results
a) Pellet and Chips chain b) Pellet chain
ToSIA perspectives: How you look at things makes a lot of
difference!
Different ToSIA perspectives at sustainability impact assessment
I will become a nice table...
...in my earlier lives I had other carreers
I used to live in Northern Sweden...
We grew up only 35 km from here...
I will be readin downtown London!
”forest-defined” ”product-defined” ”industry-defined”
Conclusions on Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA)
• Flexible tool - User can select : system boundaries, indicators, weights ...
• Quality of assessment depends on quality of data
• Quantitative approach to sustainability assessment
• Trade-offs between different aspects of sustainability
More Conclusions ...
• Many other potential applications
• Transparent treatment of stakeholder preferences
• Designed for the demands of policy makers
Thank you!