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Sustainability indicators and metrics
Anthony C. Janetos, Ph.D.
Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study
of the Longer-Range Future
Boston University
Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH
Professor, Department of Global Health
Department of Environmental and Occupational Health
Sciences
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Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/what-
countries-are-best-at-2014-1
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WHO 2015
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Moench 2014
Climate resilience framework
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Shared socioeconomic pathways
O’Neill et al. 2014
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SSP elements
Expert elicitation (Schweitzer & O’Neill, 2014)
Key determinants of adaptation challenges:
Determinant:
Average wealth
Poverty
Quality of governance
People in coastal zones
Urbanization
Education
Innovation
Quality of healthcare
Storyline IAM elements IAV elements
SSP variable:
GDP projection
Income distribution
Governance
Spatial population projection
Urbanization
Education
Innovation
Health projections
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NCA3
• As part of the third National Climate Assessment, Tony Janetos and Melissa Kenney chaired a working group of the advisory committee to design a system of indicators that would inform future assessments
• They decided to take an end-to-end approach
• Focused on not only the physical climate system, but from energy and emissions through climate to climate impacts on many sectors, to responses (both mitigation and adaptation)
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• Provide meaningful, authoritative
climate-relevant measures about the
status, rates, and trends of key physical,
ecological, and societal variables and
values;
• Inform decisions at multiple scales
• Identify climate-related conditions and
impacts
• Provide analytical tools by which user
communities can derive their own
indicators for particular purposes.
Recommendation: National Climate Indicators System
A system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate and inform decisions about key aspects
of climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness.
Categories of Indicators: Framework for the
National Climate Assessment Indicator System
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Implementation?
• NCA3 focused on guiding indicator development with conceptual models and using a pilot release to get actual data on use
• Comprehensive development – a dozen sectors, volunteer committee for each, lots of attention paid to communications designs
• Agencies implemented only a small part of the proposed pilot
• Agencies committed to implement more, but how or when is unknown, and the committee responsible has not met for months
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So What?
• Acknowledge the importance of multiple stresses and causal determinants of change in indicator design
• These will be necessary parts of indicators of sustainability, as will an end-to-end perspective that acknowledges social and economic issues
• But this also has made it difficult for mission-driven agencies and programs to implement
• Feedback Tony heard was “we thought this was supposed to be a climate-change-only set of indicators”
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Bottom Line
• There are in fact lots of potential
indicators related to sustainability in the
literature and in use
• Need a systematic, conceptually well-
based way of integrating them
• But also need an institutional and political
climate that is able to accommodate and
nurture them – that is broader than single
issue-based foundations