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TRANSCRIPT
Sustainability Science or Fiction?
Pim Martens
11th Annual International Sustainable Development Research Conference6-8 June 2005, Helsinki, Finland
What is sustainable development?
Emerged from the collective aspirations of theworld’s people for:
ØPeace
ØFreedom
ØImproved living conditions
ØHealthy environment
What is sustainable development?
Most frequently quoted :(Brundtland Commission (1987))
‘Sustainable development is a developmentthat meets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of futuregenerations to meet their own needs. ’
Characteristics of Sustainable Development
region city country continent world
place
time
2000
2025
2050
now there
futureØ Intergenerational
Ø Level of scale
and here
Characteristics of Sustainable Development
Ø Multipledomains
EconomicEcological
Social-cultural
justice
efficiencyresilience
Characteristics of Sustainable Development
Ø Multipleinterpretation
Symptoms non-sustainable development
Ø Agriculture:mad cow disease, foot-and-mouth disease
Ø Water sector:flooding, droughts
problems related to water quality
Ø Traffic and transport systems:Air pollution, traffic jams
Sustainable health
Health
Health as an integrated sustainability index
Socio-Economic
developments
EcosystemsNaturalsystems
Society
Geophysicalsystems
Culture
Population
Politics
Naturalenvironment
Socialenvironment
Symptoms non-sustainable development
Ø Health:
SARS
malaria
tuberculosis
obesity
AIDS
malnutrition
ØHigh birth- and deathrates
ØInfectious diseases
ØBad hygiene andhealthcare
ØSome developingcountries are still in thisphase
Sustainable health
The health transition – phase 1
time
Hea
lthy
life
expe
ctan
cy
Pestilence and famine
ØDecrease birth- anddeath rates
ØReduction incidenceinfectious diseases
ØImproved hygiene andliving conditions
ØMost developingcountries are in this phase
Sustainable health
The health transition – phase 2
time
Hea
lthy
life
expe
ctan
cy
Pestilence and famine
Receding pandemics
time
The health transition – phase 3
Hea
lthy
life
expe
ctan
cy ØLow birth and deathrates
ØDeaths mainly due tochronic diseases
ØAgeing of the population
ØDeveloped countries arein this phase
Sustainable health
Pestilence and famine
Receding pandemics
Chronic diseases
A healthy and sustainable future?
Pestilence and famine
Receding pandemics
Sustaining health
Medical technologyChronic diseases
Emerging infectious diseases
Future ?
time
Hea
lthy
life
expe
ctan
cy
Medical technology
Emerging infectious diseases
Developed countries
Developing countries
Epidemieën, honger en oorlog
Afnemende infectieziekten
Veroudering enchronische ziekten
Future:A market world
Ø Business as usualØ Economic growthØ Technological developmentØ Population growthØ Environmental problems
A healthy and sustainable future?
Emerging infectious diseases
Epidemieen, honger en oorlog
Afnemende infectieziekten
Veroudering enchronische ziekten
Future:A fragmented word
Ø Stagnation globalisationØ Decreasing economic growthØ RegionalismØ ‘Future of inequity’Ø Decline social infrastructuresØ Environmental problems
Developing and developedcountries
A healthy and sustainable future?
Medical technology
Epidemieën, honger en oorlog
Afnemende infectieziekten
Veroudering enchronische ziekten
Future:A sustainable world
Ø Increased social and ecologicalconsciousnessØ Economic growth within limits ofØ Sustainable developmentØ Decreased inequityØ Stabilisation population growthØ Improve quality of theenvironment
Sustaining health
Developed countries
Developing countries
A healthy and sustainable future?
Micro and macro approach
A sustainable health transition
e.g. poverty reduction, education,macro-economic developments,
reduction greenhouse gas emission
e.g. lifestyle, housing,food- and water provision
macro
micro
The complexity of sustainable development
Multiple dimensions
Complexity
New paradigm
Sustainability Sciencetime
pers
pect
ivesdomains
place
Sustainability Science
A new research paradigm
Mode-1 science Mode-2 science
Academic Academic and socialMono-disciplinary Trans- and interdisciplinaryTechnocratic ParticipativeCertain UncertainPredictive Exploratory
Sustainability Science
Using complex systems theory as an umbrella mechanism to bringtogether the various different parts of the sustainability puzzle
Central elements
ØCo-evolution(of a complex system and its environment)ØCo-production(of knowledge)ØCo-learning(learning by doing and doing through learning)
Sustainability Science
Mode-1 science
AcademicMono-disciplinaryTechnocraticCertainPredictive
Mode-2 science
Academic and socialTrans- and interdisciplinaryParticipativeUncertainExploratory
New methods and techniques
Sustainability Science
Integrated Assessment
ØAnalytical methods(e.g. Integrated Assessment models,scenarios)
ØParticipatory methods(e.g. dialogue, mutual learning)
ØPolicy methods(e.g. transition management)
Sustainability Science
Breaking down the barriers
Ø Scientific barriers
Ø Sectoral barriers
Ø Geographical barriers
Ø Communicative barriers
Level of scale (temporal and spatial)
Level of integration
Sustainability Scienceand the policy-making process
integrated, proactive,long-term, innovationand sustainability
functional, reactive,ad hoc,effect oriented,short-term
multifunctional,mid- and long-term,cost-effective,optimalisation Su
staina
bility
Scien
ce
Sustainable education
‘Education – in all its forms and all itslevels – is not only an end in itself but isalso one of the most powerful instrumentswe have for bringing about the changesrequired to achieve sustainabledevelopment’
Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General UNESCO
Sustainability
science? fiction?