sustainable bioenergy in south east asia€¦ · indonesia 201999 26% lao pdr n/a n/a source: iea,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Sustainable Bioenergy in Southeast AsiaAn FAO perspective
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Beau Damen
Bioenergy Officer
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Overview
1.
2.
3.
Energy & Bioenergy in Southeast Asia
Sustainability challenges in Southeast Asia
Trade-offs3.
4.
5.
Presentation contents
Trade-offs
Strategies for sustainable bioenergy
FAO Resources
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BioenergyBioenergyin Southeast Asia
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
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Energy in ASEAN + 3
TPES in ASEAN + 3 by source (ktoe), 2009
Source: IEA, 2011
Total TPES = 3,506,771ktoe
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Energy in ASEAN
TPES in ASEAN by source (ktoe), 2009
Source: IEA, 2011
Total TPES = 536,335ktoe
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Bioenergy in ASEAN + 3
Final Bioenergy Consumption by Sector, 2009- Primary Solid
Biofuels (TJ)
Source: IEA, 2011
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Energy in ASEAN + 3
TPES and Bioenergy Share in ASEAN + 3, 2009
Country TPES (Ktoe)
Bioenergy percentage of
TPES
Brunei 3123 0%
Cambodia 5182 70.7%
Indonesia 201999 26%
Lao PDR n/a n/a
Sou
rce: IE
A, 2
01
2
Lao PDR n/a n/a
Malaysia 66826 4.5%
Myanmar 15062 69.9%
Philippines 38842 17.9%
Singapore 18476 0.16%
Thailand 103316 19.9%
Vietnam 64048 39.3%
China 2257101 9%
Japan 471992 1.4%
Republic of Korea 229178 1.3%
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Energy in ASEAN + 3
TPES, Bioenergy Share and Poverty Rate in ASEAN + 3, 2010
Sou
rce: IE
A, 2
01
2, W
orld
Ba
nk
Country TPES (Ktoe)
Bioenergy percentage
of TPES
Ratio of population
living on less than $2
per day
Year of poverty
count
Brunei 3123 0% n/a n/a
Cambodia 5182 70.7% 53.3% 2008
Indonesia 201999 26% 46.1% 2010
Lao PDR n/a n/a 66.0% 2008
Sou
rce: IE
A, 2
01
2, W
orld
Ba
nk
Lao PDR n/a n/a 66.0% 2008
Malaysia 66826 4.5% 2.3% 2009
Myanmar 15062 69.9% n/a n/a
Philippines 38842 17.9% 41.5% 2009
Singapore 18476 0.16% n/a n/a
Thailand 103316 19.9% 4.6% 2009
Vietnam 64048 39.3% 43.4% 2008
China 2257101 9% 29.8% 2008
Japan 471992 1.4% n/a n/a
Republic of Korea 229178 1.3% n/a n/a
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Modern bioenergy
Schematic view of commercial (modern) bioenrgy routes
The focus of my presentation
Source: IPCC, 2011, based on IEA Bioenergy, 2009
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Modern Bioenergy Outlook - Asia
Actual and Projected Bioenergy Demand in Non-OECD Asia, 1990 - 2035
Source: IEA
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Thailand
•20% RE (incl. biomass) by 2022
•5 billion litres of biofuel by 2022
China
•362 GW RE (incl. biomass) by 2020
•15 billion litres of biofuel by 2020
Vietnam
•5% RE (incl. biomass) by 2020
•560 million litres of biofuel by 2020
Philippines
•267 MW biomass by 2030
•10% ethanol by 2011
Lao PDR
• 450 million litres of biofuel by 2025
Malaysia
Bioenergy development driven by government
Indonesia
•5% RE by 2025
•5% biofuels by 2025
•10% ethanol by 2011Malaysia
•1065 MW biomass by 2020
•B5 mandate
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Sustianability ChallengesSustianability Challengesin Southeast Asia and bioenergy
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
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Energy Security
Net Energy Imports of Selected Countries in ASEAN + 3, 2009
Country Net energy imports
Net energy imports as a
share of TPES
Brunei -15577 -498.8%
Cambodia 1545 29.8%
Indonesia -153635 -76.1%
Lao PDR n/a n/a
Sou
rce: IE
A, 2
01
2
Lao PDR n/a n/a
Malaysia -21712 -32.5%
Myanmar -7172 -47.6%
Philippines 16336 42.1%
Singapore 58916 318.9%
Thailand 47369 45.8%
Vietnam -13830 -21.6%
China 274916 12.2%
Japan 384459 81.5%
Republic of Korea 198096 86.4%
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Energy Projections
ASEAN Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Type, Reference Scenario (MToE), 1980 - 2030
Energy demand set to grow significantly
Source: IEA, 2009
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Tackling emissions
Projected CO² Emissions in Non-OECD Asia (MT) 1990-2035
Th
ou
san
ds
MT
CO
²
Source: IEA
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72.5
195.1
2008
2030
Southeast Asia
People without access to electricity in ASEAN
(millions of people)
Source: IEA
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Food security in Southeast Asia
Undernourishment in 1990-92 and 2010-12 by region (millions)
Leading developing world toward food security
Source: FAO, 2010
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Progress toward food security
Hunger trends by region
Source: FAO, 2012
MDG target in reach
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Food prices
Th
aila
nd
FAO food price indices in real terms: 1990 - 2012
Rising and increasingly volatile
Source: FAO
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Trade-offs
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Trade-offsand bioenergy development
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EnergyAgriculture
RuralDevelopment
Trade Finance& planning
Need for coordinated approach
EnergyAgriculture
Environment
PovertyForestry
Bioenergy intersects with a range of policy issues
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Opportunities of bioenergy
Energy Security
Investment in agriculture
Job creation & enterprise development
Improved energy access
Reduced emissions
Are many
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Risks of bioenergy development
Land-use
Change
Soil and
water
impacts
Competition
for resources
Displacement
or
marginalized
small-holders
The trade-offs can be significant
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Different systems
Some bioenergy systems imply different levels of resource competition and final impact:
High
Competition
First generation
biofuels from coops
& residues
…have different impacts
Low
Competition
Second
generation biofuels
from woody biomass
Power generation
from municipal
waste
Biogas
CHP from dedicated
plantations
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StrategiesStrategiesfor sustainable bioenergy in
Southeast Asia
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
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Ensure policies are based on a
detailed assessment of the trade-
offs involvedoffs involved
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What are the current needs and challenges facing the energy and
agriculture sectors?
What are the current needs and challenges facing the energy and
agriculture sectors?
Which bioenergy feedstock and Which bioenergy feedstock and
What are the natural resources available for bioenergy production?
What are the natural resources available for bioenergy production?
What are the current needs and challenges facing the energy and
agriculture sectors?
Which bioenergy feedstock and
What are the natural resources available for bioenergy production?
FAO BEFS
Analytical FrameworkKey questions
Diagnostic Analysis: trends in domestic agricultural
markets and food security
Natural Resource Analysis: land, water and residues
Techno-economic and Which bioenergy feedstock and technologies are feasible/cost effective?
Which bioenergy feedstock and technologies are feasible/cost effective?
What is the environmental impact of different bioenergy production chains?What is the environmental impact of
different bioenergy production chains?
How will changes in food prices affect households?
How will changes in food prices affect households?
What is the impact of bioenergydevelopment on the national economy?
What is the impact of bioenergydevelopment on the national economy?
Which bioenergy feedstock and technologies are feasible/cost effective?
What is the environmental impact of different bioenergy production chains?
How will changes in food prices affect households?
What is the impact of bioenergydevelopment on the national economy?
Socio-economic Analysis: economy-wide and household
effects
Techno-economic and Environmental Analysis:
viable technologies, productions costs, smallholder inclusion,
GHG balance
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BEFS in Thailand - Findings
Production of key biofuel feedstock will need to growsubstantially - sugar cane molasses and palm oil is anticipatedto double by 2018, while cassava production is expected togrow by 50 percent
Improved yields and some land use and crop change will berequiredrequired
Potential yield improvements for key biofuel feedstock cropsare feasible
Biofuels production in Thailand is economically competitivecompared to imported fossil transport fuels and biofuels.
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BEFS in Thailand - Findings
The profitability of biofuels production is highly sensitive tofeedstock costs
Biofuels can offer measurable greenhouse gas mitigationadvantages over fossil fuels, but the impact of crop changeand land-use change on the final emissions profile of biofuelsand land-use change on the final emissions profile of biofuelsis considerable
Biofuels using certain feedstock may not meet the emissionsrequirements of some markets such as the EU
Improving the productivity of feedstock producers would notonly stabilize feedstock costs and but also reduce greenhousegas emissions per unit of biofuel produced.
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FAO’s BEFS ApproachA multidisciplinary and integrated set of tools and guidance that support:
• Establishment of an institutionalized dialogue among relevant national stakeholders
• Assessment of the sustainable bioenergy potential
• Risk prevention and management
• Investment Screening and Appraisal
• Impact monitoring, evaluation and response
• Capacity building at technical and policy level
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BEFS work to date
Country levelactivities
Regional levelactivities
Peru
Sierra
Leone
Tanzania
Thailand
SADC
SouthAsia
ASEAN
APT
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BEFS in ASEAN
Develop a comprehensive strategy on sustainable and integrated food and biofuelsproduction and consumption
Cha-am Hua Hin Statement on ASEAN Plus Three Cooperation on Food Security and Bio-Energy Development - 2009
5.
production and consumption
Promote bio-energy trade and technology innovation to ensure longterm viability of bioenergy
Enhance the partnership with regional and international organizations
Foundations
9.
10.
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TCP/RAS/3204
Sustainable, food secure, climate-friendly bioenergy contributes to economic development in AMS
Bioenergy provides more effective
Development Impact
Project Bioenergy provides more effective energy services in AMS with minimal or no impact on food security and the environment.
Desired impact
Project Outcome
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BEFS in ASEAN - TCP/RAS/3204
• National capacity building
• Regional cooperation
• Regional technical capacity for ASEAN Secretariat (Ag Industies & NR Division)
FAO support:
• Formation/reinvigoration of national bioenergypolicy bodies directed by SOM AMAF & SOME
• National and regional BEFS mainstreaming strategies where requested
• Targeted technical assessments – natural resources, technologies and trade & economic
Two year, $0.5 million program
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Wide range of support materials available
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Avoid harmful environmental impacts
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Biofuel Feedstock Inputs
Commodity Production
in 2005
(million MT)
Amount required for bioenergy
(million MT)
Average yield
in 2005
(MT/ha)
Additional area in
2030 at 2005 yield
(million ha) 2005 2030 Increase
Wheat &
maize
267.5 1.4 5.9 +4.6 4.5 1.0
Bioenergy Feedstock Requirements in East Asia and Pacific (2005-2030)
maize
Cassava 50.0 0.4 13.1 +12.7 15.7 0.8
Sweet
sorghum
2.7 0.0 10.5 +10.5 4.3 2.4
Sugar cane 213.9 3.7 86.3 +82.6 59.9 1.4
Rapeseed 13.1 0.0 9.4 +9.4 1.8 5.2
Oil palm 146.0 0.4 65.9 +65.4 18.9 3.5
Jatropha n.a. 0.0 10.8 +10.8 4.0 2.7
Total 693.2 5.8 201.9 196.0 n.a. 17.0
Source: FAOSTAT
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Environmental challenges
Risks associated with agriculture systems
Source: FAO, 2012
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Water scarcity
Source: FAO,
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Land degradation
Source: UNEP & TERI from IWMI 2010
Land resources have already deteriorated
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FAO Tools for land planning
• A global assessment tool to support strategy, management, planning, rational use and sustainable development addressing food security – facilitating access to data, information and knowledge
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FAO Tools for water planning
• Water and crop yields
• Irrigation modernization and planning
• Information system on water and agriculture
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Invest in lifting agricultural productivity
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Production of plant food calories per hectare of cultivated land (kcal/ha/day)
Yields have stagnated
Source: B Dorin (cf. Agribiom), Graph by Agrimonde (2009)
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Share of ODA for agriculture (percentage)
Aid for agriculture has declined
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Ensure small-holders & rural
communities will benefitcommunities will benefit
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Agriculture, growth & food security
Source: FAO, 2012
Benefits need to reach the poorest groups
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Agriculture, growth & food security
Source: FAO, 2012
Agricultural growth can reduce hunger
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Smallholders in global bioenergy value chains
and certification: 3 case studies
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Rural bioenergy technologies
Household biogas
Improved cook stoves
Biomass gasification
BiocharCommunity
biofuel
Wide range of innovative systems
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Integrated Food & Energy Systems
• Full description of IFES systems
• Report on IFES systems in China and Vietnam
• Information on future FAO IFES
FAO IFES Website:
• Information on future FAO IFES activities
http://www.fao.org/bioenergy/67564/en/
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Develop regionally agreed
sustainability indicatorssustainability indicators
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GBEP Indicators
Agreed by 45 countries & 22 international organizations including China, Cambodia, Lao
PDR, Thailand, Vietnam, ADB & FAO
Legitimate
Relevant Applicable to all sources of bioenergyRelevant
Practical
ScientificMethodical approach to proving the link between
the values or changes in values over time and bioenergy production and use
Data availability and the ability to collect the data
Applicable to all sources of bioenergy
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GBEP Sustainability Indicators
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FAO ResourcesFAO Resources
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
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Sustainable bioenergy in Asia
• Challenges in replicating small scale bioenergy projects
• Opportunities for biochar
Topics include:
• Opportunities for biochar
• Bioslurry
• Wood briquettes industry
• Challenges to financing bioenergy in Lao PDR & Vietnam
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FAO Bioenergy Website
• FAO view and role on bioenergy
• Details of FAO global bioenergy initiatives
• Links to Global Bioenergy Partnership
Find....
• Links to Global Bioenergy Partnership Secretariat (GBEP)
• Electronic FAO Bioenergy publication warehouse
www.fao.org/bioenergy/en/
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BEFS Website
• Full technical and policy reports for each BEFS country
• Full description of BEFS Analytical Framework
Find....
Framework
• Description of activities in each country
• Information on each BEFS Partner Organization
• Links to BEFS reports and materials
www.fao.org/bioenergy/foodsecurity/befs/
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Contacts: FAO & BEFS
Asia and the Pacific
Beau Damen – [email protected]
Climate, Energy and Tenure Division (FAO HQ)
Heiner Thofern – [email protected]
Irini Maltsoglou – [email protected]
Andrea Rossi – [email protected]
www.fao.org
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Thank youThank you
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific