sustainable development prospects for north africa :
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Sustainable Development Prospects for North Africa :. Lessons of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Professor Anthony Nyong. Ad Hoc Experts Meeting Sustainable Development in North Africa: Experiences and Lessons Tunisia, 18-21 November 2007. Outline of Presentation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Sustainable Development Prospects for North
Africa:
Ad Hoc Experts MeetingSustainable Development in North Africa: Experiences and Lessons
Tunisia, 18-21 November 2007
Lessons of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Professor Anthony Nyong
Outline of Presentation
• Summary of IPCC Report on Impacts and Vulnerability for Africa
• Implications for Sustainable Development in North Africa
Africa’s Vulnerability• AFRICA, most vulnerable continent
– Current and projected climate– Current and projected multiple stresses
Current and Projected Climate
• High annual and inter-annual variability
• Mean increase of 3 – 4 degrees C between 2080 and 2099
• Significant decline in precipitation along Mediterranean coast, northern Sahara and Western Sahel
• Increase in drought and flood frequencies and intensities.
• Significant increase in semi arid/arid lands.
• More hot days and heat waves
Current Multiple Stresses
• Low income and GDP
• Desertification
• Soil Erosion
• High population growth rate
• High urbanization rates
• Declining per capita agricultural production
• Extensive deforestation
Projected Impacts• Water Resources
– Substantial decline in run-off– Increased water stress– Increased evapotranspiration and water salinity– Reduced water table– Increased potential for ‘water wars’
Freshwater Stress & Scarcity - 2025Projected run-off by 2050
• Sea Level Rise– Coastal erosion– Intrusion of sea water into land– Economic loss from destruction of
infrastructure and other resources– Loss of livelihoods
• Agriculture– Reduced crop growth period and growing
areas– Declining yields with food insecurity– More expenditure on food imports– Livestock production declines with
reduced quality of rangelands + heat stress
Temp and Precipitation Variables Predicted yields (kg/ha)
Impacts (%)
Current Temp and precipitation 747.30 0
Current temp + 1.50C + -10% precipitation 499.81 -33.11
Current temp + 1.50C + -20% precipitation 371.46 -50.29
Current temp + 3.60C + -10% precipitation 333.01 -55.44
Current temp + 3.60C + -20% precipitation 204.66 -72.61
• Energy– Reduced energy production from
reduced runoff– Increased energy demand
• Tourism– Increased heat index– Degraded beaches– Reduced tourism inflows
• Desertification– Increase in extent and severity of
desertification– Enormous cost implications
• Public health– Malnutrition – Respiratory illness from heat and
pollution– Cholera from polluted water– Risk of other vector-borne diseases– Increased mortality from climate
disasters
• Biodiversity– In Tunisia, rising temperatures could
contribute to significant loss in food plants and breeding waterfowl
– Possible disappearance of nationally important fisheries.
– Up to 50% loss in plant species– Increase in forest fires– Forest fires could introduce invasive
species that lead to more forest fires.
• Pillars of Sustainable Development– Environmental– Economic– Social
• All Captured in the MDGs
• Climate change threat to achieving the MDGs and other developmental goals
• Falling agricultural output and deteriorating conditions in rural areas caused by climate change will directly increase poverty of households in many countries.
• Climate change and variability cuts the revenues and increases the spending of nations, worsening their budget situation.
• Strategies to manage the risks and impacts of an adverse climate can lock people into long-term poverty traps.
• Extreme weather events can – and do – affect growth rates in developing countries. Climate change presents a greater threat still.
• Slower growth could cause an increase in poverty and child mortality relative to a world without climate change.
– Under a high-climate-change scenario, the mean cost of climate change is predicted to be 2.7% of GDP in Africa by 2100.
• Climate-driven reduction in GDP would
increase no of people below the $2 a day poverty line by 2100 (100 million in Africa), and raise the child mortality rate.
• Greater resource scarcity, desertification, risks of droughts and floods, and rising sea levels could drive many millions of people to migrate – a last-resort adaptation for individuals, but one that could be very costly to them and the world.
• Drought and other climate-related shocks may spark conflict and violence, as they have done already in many parts of Africa.