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Sustainable EnergyChoosing Among Options
Jefferson W. Tester, Elisabeth M. Drake, Michael W. Golay,Michael J. Driscoll, and William A. Peters
The MIT PressCambridge, MassachusettsLondon, England
Contents
P r e f a c e x v i i
A c k n o w l e d g m e n t s x x i
C h a p t e r 1 S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y — T h e E n g i n e o f S u s t a i n a b l e D e v e l o p m e n t . . . 1
1.1 Sustainable Energy: The Engine of Sustainable Development 21.2 Defining Energy—Scientific and Engineering Foundations 91.3 Aspects of Energy Production and Consumption 171.4 National and Global Patterns of Energy Supply and Utilization 241.5 Environmental Effects of Energy—Gaining Understanding 321.6 Confronting the Energy-Prosperity-Environmental Dilemma 411.7 Mathematical Representations of Sustainability 451.8 The Rest of This Book 47References 48
Chapter 2 Estimation and Evaluation of Energy Resources 51
2.1 Units of Measurement: Energy and Power 522.2 Comparison of Different Forms of Energy 542.3 The Energy Lifecycle 562.4 Estimation and Valuation of Fossil Mineral Fuels, Especially Petroleum 64
2.4.1 Asking the right questions and avoiding the unanswerable ones 64
2.4.2 Perspectives from mineral geology 65
2.4.3 Two interpretations of hydrocarbon fuel economics 66
2.4.4 Categories of reserves 73
2.4.5 Forecasting mineral fuel prices and supplies 75
2.4.6 Geopolitical factors and energy supply "crises" 79
2.5 Lessons for Sustainable Development 822.6 Summary and Conclusions 83References 83
Chapter 3 Technical Performance: Allowability, Efficiency, Production Rates 87
3.1 Relation to Sustainability 883.2 An Introduction to Methods of Thermodynamic Analysis 90
3.2.1 Allowability, efficiency, and the Second Law 90
3.2.2 More about entropy 92
vi Contents
3.2.3 Analysis of ideal (Carnot) heat engines 98
3.2.4 Analysis of real world (irreversible) heat engines 100
3.3 The Importance of Rate Processes in Energy Conversion 115
3.4 Chemical Rate Processes 116
3.5 The Physical Transport of Heat 120
3.5.1 Foundations for quantitative analysis 120
3.5.2 Thermal conduction 122
3.5.3 Convective heat transfer 123
3.5.4 Radiative heat transmission 124
3.5.5 Heat transfer by tandem mechanisms 128
3.6 Use and Abuse of Time Scales 129
3.7 Energy Resources and Energy Conversion—Fertile Common Ground . . . . . . . . 131
References 131
Problems 134
Chapter 4 Local, Regional, and Global Environmental Effects of Energy . . 137
4.1 How Energy Systems Interact with the Environment 138
4.1.1 Known and potential environmental threats 138
4.1.2 Origin of harmful agents 140
4.1.3 Length and time scales for environmental impacts 143
4.2 Adverse Environmental Effects Over Local and Regional Length Scales 147
4.2.1 Ambient air pollution 147
4.2.2 Adulteration of soil, water, and indoor air 156
4.2.3 Transport and transformation of air, ground, and water contamination 157
4.3 Global Climate Change: Environmental Consequences over Planetary-Length Scales 158
4.3.1 Introduction 158
4.3.2 Basic science of the greenhouse effect 160
4.3.3 Energy and the greenhouse effect 167
4.3.4 Greenhouse consequences: Consensus, unknowns, misconceptions 172
4.3.5 Technological and policy response strategies: Evolutionary and revolutionary . . 178
4.4 Attribution of Environmental Damage to Energy Utilization 184
4.4.1 Diagnosing receptor jeopardy and injury 185
4.4.2 Source identification , 190
4.4.3 Risk and uncertainty 191
4.5 Methods of Environmental Protection 191
4.5.1 Energy and the environment as an ensemble of coupled complex systems . . . . 191
4.5.2 Earth-system ecology as a working paradigm 192
4.5.3 Public policy instruments 195
4.5.4 Technological remedies 196
Contents vii
4.6 Environmental Benefits of Energy 196
4.6.1 Pollution prevention and environmental restoration . 196
4.6.2 Social and economic foundations for environmental stewardship 197
4.7 Implications for Sustainable Energy 197
4.7.1 Environmental footprints as sustainability metrics 197
4.7.2 The unusual challenge of global climate change 198
Problems 199
Appendix: Lessons from SO2 Emissions Trading 200
References 203
Chapter 5 Project Economic Evaluation 207
5.1 Introduction 2085.2 Time Value of Money Mechanics 211
5.2.1 Basic aspects . . 211
5.2.2 Application to a typical cash flow scenario 213
5.2.3 Derivation of relations 215
5.2.4 Pitfalls, errors, and ambiguities ' 220
5.3 Current versus Constant-Dollar Comparisons 2225.4 Simple Payback 2255.5 Economy of Scale and Learning Curve 2255.6 Allowing for Uncertainty 229
5.6.1 Overview 229
5.6.2 Analytic uncertainty propagation 229
5.6.3 The Monte Carlo method 230
5.6.4 Decision tree method 232
5.7 Accounting for Externalities 2325.8 Energy Accounting 2395.9 Modeling Beyond the Project Level 2415.10 Chapter Summary 243
Appendix A 245
Appendix B 247
References 251Problems 254
Chapter 6 Energy Systems and Sustainability Metrics 259
6.1 Introduction and Historical Notes 2606.2 Energy from a Systems Perspective 2636.3 Systems Analysis Approaches 271
viii Contents
6.3.1 Lifecycle analysis 273
6.3.2 Simulation models 275
6.3.3 Risk-based models 276
6.4 Measures of Sustainability 279
6.4.1 General indicators of sustainability 280
6.4.2 Categories of indicators 282
6.5 Drivers of Societal Change 2846.6 Some General Principles of Sustainable Development 287References 289Web Sites of Interest 292Problems 292
Chapter 7 Fossil Fuels and Fossil Energy 295
7.1 Introduction 296
7.1.1 Definition and types of fossil fuels 296
7.1.2 Historical and current contributions of fossil fuels to human progress 300
7.1.3 Sustainability: Challenges and opportunities 302
7.2 The Fossil Fuel Resource Base 302
7.2.1 How long will fossil fuels last? 302
7.2.2 "Unconventional" naturally occurring fossil fuels . 303
7.2.3 Fossil resources and sustainability 305
7.3 Harvesting Energy and Energy Products from Fossil Fuels 306
7.3.1 Exploration, discovery, and extraction of fuels 306
7.3.2 Fuel storage and transportation 306
7.3.3 Fuel conversion 307
7.3.4 Fuel combustion 317
7.3.5 Direct generation of electricity: Fuel cells 324
7.3.6 Manufacture of chemicals and other products 329
7.4 Environmental Impacts 329
7.4.1 Pollutant sources and remedies: The fuel itself 329
7.4.2 Pollutant sources and remedies: Combustion pathologies 332
7.4.3 Pollutant sources and remedies: Carbon management 333
7.5 Geopolitical and Sociological Factors 337
7.5.1 Globalization of fossil energy sources 337
7.5.2 Equitable access, Revenue scaffolds, "American Graffiti" 338
7.6 Economics of Fossil Energy 3417.7 Some Principles for Evaluating Fossil and Other Energy Technology Options . . . . 3467.8 Emerging Technologies 353
Contents ix
7.9 Closure: Why Are Fossil Fuels Important to Sustainable Energy? 353References 355Problems 359
Chapter 8 Nuclear Power 361
8.1 Nuclear History 3628.2 Physics 3648.3 Nuclear Reactors 3648.4 Burning and Breeding 3688.5 Nuclear Power Economics 3698.6 The Three Mile Island 2 Nuclear Power Plant Accident 3708.7 Reactor Safety 3728.8 Light-Water Reactors (LWR) 3748.9 Pressurized-Water Reactor (PWR) Technologies 3748.10 Boiling-Water Reactor (BWR) Technology 3778.11 RBMK Reactors 3778.12 Heavy-Water Cooled Technologies 3808.13 Gas-Cooled Reactor Technologies 3808.14 Liquid-Metal Reactor Technologies 3848.15 Actinide Burning 3858.16 Advanced Reactors 3878.17 Nuclear Power Fuel Resources 3878.18 Fuel Cycle 389
8.18.1 Uranium mining 390
8.18.2 Uranium milling 390
8.18.3 Conversion 391
8.18.4 Enrichment 391
8.18.5 Fuel fabrication 392
8.18.6 Spent fuel 392
8.18.7 Reprocessing 393
8.18.8 High Level Wastes (HLW) disposal 394
8.19 Fusion Energy 397
8.19.1 Introduction 397
8.19.2 Why is fusion more difficult than fission? 398
8.19.3 Magnetic fusion energy 400
8.19.4 Inertial fusion energy 401
8.19.5 Prospects for the future 402
8.20 Future Prospects for Nuclear Power 404
References 405Additional Resources 406
x Contents
Chapter 9 Renewable Energy in Context 407
9.1 Introduction and Historical Notes 4089.2 Resource Assessment 4109.3 Environmental Impacts 4129.4 Technology Development and Deployment 4139.5 The Importance of Storage 4149.6 Connecting Renewables to Hydrogen 414
9.7 The Future for Renewable Energy 4159.8 Additional Resources 416References 416
Chapter 10 Biomass Energy 419
10.1 Characterizing the Biomass Resource 42010.2 Biomass Relevance to Energy Production 424
10.2.1 Utilization options 424
10.2.2 Advantages and disadvantages 424
10.2.3 More on resources 427
10.3 Chemical and Physical Properties Relevant to Energy Production 429
10.4 Biomass Production: Useful Scaling Parameters 430
10.5 Thermal Conversion of Biomass 432
10.5.1 Biomass to electricity 432
10.5.2 Biomass to fuels 434
10.6 Bioconversion 437
10.6.1 Introduction 437
10.6.2 Biogas 437
10.6.3 Fermentation ethanol from corn and cellulosic biomass 440
10.7 Environmental Issues 440
10.8 Economics 44310.9 Enabling Research and Development 44410.10 Disruptive Technology '. 44410.11 Summary 446References 446Web Sites of Interest 449Problems 449
Chapter 11 Geothermal Energy 453
11.1 Characterization of Geothermal Resource Types 454
11.1.1 Definition in general 454
11.1.2 Natural hydrothermal systems 457
Contents xi
11.1.3 Geopressured systems 459
11.1.4 Hot dry rock 459
11.1.5 Magma 461
11.1.6 Ultra low-grade systems 461
11.1.7 Markets for geothermal energy 462
11.2 Geothermal Resource Size and Distribution 464
11.2.1 Overall framework and terminology 464
11.2.2 Quality issues 465
11.2.3 Resource base and reserve estimates 466
11.3 Practical Operation and Equipment for Recovering Energy 468
11.3.1 Drilling and field development 468
11.3.2 Reservoir fluid production 469
11.3.3 Non-electric, direct-heat utilization 473
11.3.4 Electric power generation 477
11.3.5 Equipment 481
11.3.6 Power cycle performance 485
11.4 Sustainability Attributes 487
11.4.1 Reservoir lifetime issues 487
11.4.2 Environmental impacts 488
11.4.3 Dispatchable heat and power delivery 490
11.4.4 Suitability for developing countries 490
11.4.5 Potential for CO2 reduction and pollution prevention 490
11.5 Status of Geothermal Technology Today 491
11.5.1 Hydrothermal 491
11.5.2 Advanced systems 495
11.6 Competing in Today's Energy Markets 50511.7 Research and Development Advances Needed 50811.8 Potential for the Long Term 510References 510Web Sites of Interest 517Problems 517
Chapter 12 Hydropower 519
12.1 Overview of Hydropower 52012.2 Hydropower Resource Assessment 52212.3 Basic Energy Conversion Principles 52512.4 Conversion Equipment and Civil Engineering Operations 527
12.4.1 Civil engineering aspects of dam construction and waterway management . . . 527
12.4.2 Turbines as energy converters 529
xii Contents
12.5 Sustainability Attributes 531
12.6 Status of Hydropower Technology Today 535
12.6.1 Economic issues 535
12.6.2 Potential for growth 537
12.6.3 Advanced technology needs 538
References 540
Web Sites of Interest 542Problems 542
Chapter 13 Solar Energy 543
13.1 General Characteristics of Solar Energy 54413.2 Resource Assessment 54413.3 Passive and Active Solar Thermal Energy for Buildings 554
13.3.1 Motivation and general issues 554
13.3.2 Passive systems 555
13.3.3 Active systems 556
13.3.4 Economic and policy issues 559
13.4 Solar Thermal Electric Systems—Concentrating Solar Power 561
13.4.1 Fundamentals and options 561
13.4.2 Power tower—central receiver systems 562
13.4.3 Parabolic troughs 565
13.4.4 Dish engine systems 568
13.4.5 Current status and future potential of CSP 569
13.5 Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Systems 572
13.5.1 Solid state physical chemistry fundamentals 573
13.5.2 Performance limits and design options 575
13.5.3 Silica-based systems (crystalline and amorphous) 578
13.5.4 Copper indium diselenide (CIS) 579
13.5.5 Cadmium telluride (CdTe) 579
13.5.6 Current status and future potential of PV 580
13.6 Sustainability Attributes 58213.7 Summary and Prognosis 584References 585Web Sites of Interest 586Problems 587
Chapter 14 Ocean Waves, Tide, and Thermal Energy Conversion 589
14.1 Introduction 59014.2 Energy from the Tides 590
Contents xiii
14.3 Energy from the Waves: Overview 59714.4 Energy from Temperature Differences 599
14.4.1 Overview 599
14.4.2 Performance limits 600
14.4.3 OTEC technology 602
14.5 Economic Prospects 60414.6 Environmental and Sustainability Considerations 60514.7 The Ocean as an Externalities Sink 60614.8 Current Status and Future Prospects 606References 607Web Sites of Interest 609Problems 609Appendix 611
Chapter 15 Wind Energy 613
15.1 Introduction and Historical Notes 614
15.2 Wind Resources 617
15.2.1 Wind quality 619
15.2.2 Variation of wind speed with elevation 622
15.2.3 Air density 624
15.2.4 Maximum wind turbine efficiency: The Betz ratio 624
15.3 Wind Machinery and Generating Systems 627
15.3.1 Overview 627
15.3.2 Rotor blade assembly 627
15.3.3 Tower 630
15.3.4 Nacelle components 630
15.3.5 Balance-of-station subsystems 630
15.3.6 System design challenges 631
15.4 Wind Turbine Rating 631
15.5 Wind Power Economics 632
15.6 Measures of Sustainability 635
15.6.1 Net energy analysis 635
15.6.2 Cost of externalities 635
15.6.3 Environmental impact of wind power 636
15.7 Current Status/Future Prospects 637
References 640Web Sites of Interest 642Problems 642Appendix 645
xiv Contents
Chapter 16 Storage, Transportation, and Distribution of Energy 647
16.1 Overview of Energy Supply Infrastructure Needs 64816.2 Connected Efficiencies and Energy Chains 65116.3 Modes of Energy Storage 653
16.3.1 General characteristics 653
16.3.2 Energy storage technologies 658
16.4 Energy Transmission 670
16.4.1 General characteristics of energy transmission systems 670
16.4.2 Oil transport 671
16.4.3 Natural gas transport 674
16.4.4 Coal transport 675
16.4.5 Electric power transmission 676
16.5 Energy Distribution Systems 678
16.5.1 General characteristics of central versus distributed systems 678
16.5.2 Combined heat and power opportunities 681
16.5.3 Applications to renewable energy systems and hybrids 683
16.6 Sustainability Attributes 683
16.6.1 Improved resource utilization 683
16.6.2 Environmental, safety, and health concerns 683
16.6.3 Economic and operational attributes 684
16.7 Opportunities for Advancement of Sustainable Energy Infrastructures 684
References 686Web Sites of Interest 688Problems 688
Chapter 17 Electric Power Sector 693
17.1 Introduction and Historical Perspectives 69417.2 Power Generation 698
17.2.1 Electric energy .698
17.2.2 Centralized energy generation 700
17.2.3 Electric power generation 700
17.2.4 Environmental effects of electricity production 701
17.2.5 Power plant siting requirements 704
17.2.6 Electricity economics 705
17.2.7 Ways of organizing the electric economy 707
17.2.8 Demand-side management (DSM) and distributed generation 708
17.2.9 Electricity transmission and distribution and economic deregulation 708
17.3 An Example of Electric Industry Planning Using Multiattribute Assessment Tools . 710
Contents xv
17.4 Energy Market Impacts on Electricity Generation Options 71517.5 Sustainability Issues 719References 724Web Sites of Interest 725Problems 726
Chapter 18 Transportation Services 727
18.1 Introduction and Historical Perspectives 72818.2 Elements of the Transportation System 73318.3 Transportation Fuels and the Fuel Cycle 73518.4 Personal Vehicles 739
18.4.1 Historical perspectives 739
18.4.2 Looking forward 741
18.5 A Lifecycle Comparison of Road Transport Alternatives for 2020 74418.6 Freight Vehicles 75218.7 Interurban and Intercontinental Transport 75318.8 Motorization Trends 75318.9 Sustainability Issues 755References 757Web Sites of Interest 758Problems 758
Chapter 19 Industrial Energy Usage 761
19.1 Introduction and Historical Perspectives 76219.2 Lifecycle Analysis and Design for Sustainability 76319.3 Metals Industries 76619.4 Cement and Lime Industries 76719.5 Chemical Industries 76919.6 Forest Products and Agriculture 77019.7 Waste Management Industries 77219.8 Sustainability Issues 773References 774Web Sites of Interest 775Problems 775
Chapter 20 Commercial and Residential Buildings 777
20.1 Introduction and Historical Perspectives 77820.2 Lifecycle Analysis 78020.3 Residential Building Design 78420.4 Commercial Buildings 789
xvi Contents
20.5 Indoor Air Quality 79120.6 Sustainability Issues 792References 794Web Sites of Interest 795Problems 795
Chapter 21 Synergistic Complex Systems 797
21.1 Introduction and Historical Notes 79821.2 The Complex Systems View 800
21.2.1 Expertpanels 801
21.2.2 Decision analysis techniques 802
21.2.3 Negotiation 805
21.2.4 How are decisions really made? 805
21.3 Some Case Studies 806
21.3.1 Beyond the Limits (Meadows etal., 1992) 807
21.3.2 Which World? (Hammond, 1998) 811
21.3.3 MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: IntegratedGlobal Climate Model 812
21.4 Transitional Pathways 81621.5 The Challenge to Society 817References 819Web Sites of Interest 820Problems 821
Chapter 22 Choosing Among Options 823
Conversion Factors 827
List of Acronyms 831
Index 837