Sustainable Energy Systems for Climate Change Adaptation in the Arctic

Mohsen Daraeikhah1, Evan G.R. Davies1, Jennifer V. Lukovich2, Christopher M. Furgal 3 and Slobodan P. Simonovic4

1Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta2Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS), University of Manitoba3Department of Indigenous Studies, Trent University4 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Western Ontario

ArcticNet Science Meeting, December 2010

Outline

Project summary

Current energy status

Energy forecast

Alternative energies in the north

Energy model

Methodology

Model structure

Conclusion

Project Summary

What is the problem?Over time, Arctic climate change will have long-term impacts on the north.

How to cope with these impacts?Northern communities will need effective adaptation strategies.

Purpose of this project: Develop a quantitative and participatory model using System Dynamics.

Initial work as a part of a larger modeling project will focus on energy.

The next step is to expand energy model to incorporate:

effects of energy systems on local public infrastructure

broader environmental and socio-economic feedbacks

Source: Davies, 2009

Sea Ice Cover Sea IceThickness

SurfaceTemperature

Mean Precipitation

Coastal Erosion

River FlowVolume

Lake LevelsVegetation Cover+ +

- -

Fresh-water Fish

+ +

+

Permafrost

Land AnimalsEdible Vegetation(tubers, berries, etc.)

Marine Animals

Insects

+

+

+

-+ +

HumanPopulation

SubsistenceWorkforce

Market EconomyWorkforce

+

+

NonrenewableResource Extraction

SubsistenceResource Harvest

+

+

Marine Shipping(fraction of year)

Land Transportation(fraction of year)

- -

+

--

+

--

+

++

--

+++

-

-

+

Housing perCapita

HousingContruction

Water Quality

Water TreatmentCapacity

School Space perCapita

SchoolConstruction

Health CareAccess

HospitalConstruction

-

++

+ +

+

+

Water TreatmentConstruction

+

-+

+

+

+

-

Energy Cost perGJ

Energy Availabilityper Capita

Energy InfrastructureConstruction

Energy TechnologyMarket Share

-

+

-

-

-

+

+

<SurfaceTemperature>

-

-

+

Effective GDP percapita

<SubsistenceResource Harvest>

<NonrenewableResource Extraction>

++

-

+

+

+

++

Project Summary

Benefits of the work:

Determine optimal renewable energy options to promote self-sufficiency and sustainability

Determine climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to rapidly changing ice and atmospheric conditions

Identify community vulnerabilities to environmental change

Lessen dependency on diesel fuel

Involve of stakeholders and people in the modelling process

Model will focus on Arviat and Rankin Inlet, Nunavut.

Reasons:

large centers with previous experience in scientific studies

exposed to changing sea ice conditions of Hudson Bay

Model will be applicable to other Arctic regions as well.

Current Energy Status

Nunavut totally depends on fossil fuel.

Problems of fossil fuel:

Expensive

imported in bulk once per year

requires a large capacity of fuel storage

affected by world oil price fluctuation

risks of leakage and fire

non-renewable resource which causes pollution

In 2006, GN spent about 20% of its annual budget to purchase fuel.

Source: A Discussion Paper for IKUMMATIIT, 2007

Energy Forecast

If maintaining the current trend, Nunavut will consume 227 ML of diesel in 2020.

Projection of QEC for year 2020:

Transportation: 64.6 to 95.6 ML/Y

Heating: 48.5 to 128.5 ML/Y

Electrical sales grows 96 million kWh, annual consumption of 55 million litres

Source: IKUMMATIIT 2007

Alternative Energy Sources in the North

Wind

Solar

Small hydro

Alternative Energy Sources in the NorthGeothermal

Biomass

Tidal

Energy Model

Develop an energy model using system dynamics

This model will show:

monthly electricity and fuel costs

effects of district heating and other efficiency measures

reliability of different options

broader environmental, social and financial effects

Community engagement in the modeling process:

critical role of people in the project

participitation in interviews and workshops

involved in setting project goals, identifying key varaibles and reviweing the model

Methodology: System Dynamics

System Dynamics is,

A simulation approach to represent real‐world structures and processes 

through nonlinear feedbacks, stocks and flows, and delays.

Interdisciplinary: Socio-economic and natural systems are linked in one consistent framework.

Participatory: Researchers interact directly with stakeholders at all stages of research.

Practical: Provides quantitative decision-support tools for researchers, policy- makers and public.

StockInflow Outflow

(Rate) (Integral)

DieselStorage

Diesel storage cap

Diesel delivery

HeatConsumption

Home heatdemand

Commercial heatdemand

School heatdemand

ElectricGeneration

Home electricdemand

School electricdemand

Commercial electricdemand

Gas Storage

Boats

Snow machines

other

Gas delivery

Gas storagecapacity

Gas consumptions

Adapted from Hemsath and Hoffman, 2007

Conclusion

Arctic climate change is now recognized as a problem threatening the Arctic environment.

To cope with these impacts, need to effective adaptation strategies.

System dynamics to understand feedback connections between climate, terrestrial, hydrological, and socio-economic systems.

Initial work will focus on energy modelling.

The next step is to expand the energy model to incorporate broader environmental and socio-economic feedbacks.

Thanks For Your Thanks For Your AttentionAttention