sustainable energy systems the eu energy research modeling tools and the high-level group on...

Sustainable Energy Systems

The EU energy research modeling tools and the high-level group on hydrogen and

fuel cells Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero

European Commission, DG ResearchTel.: +32-2-296.28.11 Fax: +32-2-299.49.91

E-mail: [email protected]

International Energy Workshop organized by EMF/IEA/IIASA

Laxenburg, Austria, 24-26 June 2003


Sustainable Development Gothenburg Summit Kyoto Protocol Johannesburg Conclusions

Research Policy Lisbon Strategy European Research Area Barcelona Summit

SD, global change and ecosystems Green Paper “Towards a European Strategy for the security of energy supply” White Paper “European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to decide” The EC 6th EAP “Environment 2010: our future, our choice”

DRIVING FORCES


Sustainable energy systems (810 M€)

Short and medium term impact (DG TREN)Medium and long term impact (DG RTD)

Sustainable surface transport (610 M€)

Global change and ecosystems (700 M€)

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS

(PRIORITY 6 of the 6th RTD FP)


SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM RESEARCH ACTIONS (405 M€)

Clean energy, in particular renewables

Cost effective supply

Large scale integration

Energy savings and energy efficiency

Eco-buildings

Polygeneration

Alternative motor fuels


Fuel cells, including their applications

New technologies for energy carriers, particularly H2

New and advanced concepts in renewable energy technologies

Capture and sequestration of CO2

Socio-economic tools and concepts for energy strategy

MEDIUM AND LONG-TERMRESEARCH ACTIONS (405 M€)


INSTRUMENTS

NEW

Integrated Projects (IP)

Networks of Excellence (NoE)

“TRADITIONAL”

Specific Targeted Research Projects (STRP)

Co-ordination Actions (CA)

Specific Support Actions (SSA)


SOCIO-ECONOMIC (2003.ML)

IP/NoE TRAD.

Quantification of energy externalities

Social issues related to implementation of medium and long term energy technologies

Quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods


POLICY SUPPORT AND ANTICIPATING SCIENTIFIC AND

TECHNOLOGICAL NEEDS

Policy-orientated research

The development of tools, indicators and operational parameters for assessing sustainable transport and energy systems performance (economic, environmental and social)


EVALUATION CRITERIA (with Threshold marks)

cf. Annex B of the Work Programme CRITERION IP NoE STREP CA SSARelevance 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 4 / 5Potential impact 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5S&T excellence 4 / 5 4 / 5Quality of the consortium 3/5 3/5 3/5Quality of the management 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5Mobilisation of resources 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5Excellence of the participants 3/5Degree of integration and the JPA 4 / 5Organisation and management 3/5Quality of the co-ordination 4 / 5Quality of the support action 3/5Overall threshold score 24

/30

20/25

21/30

21/30

17.5/25


QUANTITATIVE TOOLS

World energy model: POLES

European energy model: PRIMES

European general equilibrium model: GEM-E3

European econometric model: NEMESIS

Analytical framework for RES: SAFIRE

External costs accounting system: EXTERNE

Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme: ETSAP


QUANTITATIVE RESULTS

World energy, Technology and climate policy Outlook - 2030 (WETO)

European energy and transport - trends to 2030

Assessing climate response options: policy simulations - insights from using national and international models (ACROPOLIS) - in collaboration with the International Energy Agency


QUALITATIVE TOOLS

Delphi method for energy technologies (2030)

Public opinion perception (Eurobarometer)

Energy technology indicators

Participatory methods


POLICY-USE OF QUANTITATIVE TOOLS

Proposal for a directive of the EP and of the Council on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market - COM(2000)279

Use of SAFIRE model

Green paper - Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply - COM(2000)769

Use of PRIMES and POLES models


POLICY-USE OF QUANTITATIVE TOOLS

Green Paper on Greenhouse gas emissions trading within the European Union - COM(2000)87 final

Use of PRIMES and POLES models

Community guidelines on state aid for environmental protection - OJEC C 37/3

Use of EXTERNE accounting framework


HIGH-LEVEL GROUP ON HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS

Established in October 2002 by Commissioners de Palacio and Busquin

Composed of the main H2 and FC stakeholders (research community, industry, public authorities and end-users)

Requested to provide a “collective vision” outlining the research, deployment and non-technical actions needed


coal

naturalgas

biomass

nuclear heat

nuclear electric

wind

solar PVhydro

Residential Com-

mercialTertiary

...

solar ther- mal

H2

PS: Sizes of “sectors” have no connection with current or expected markets

H2: PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES, ENERGY CONVERTERS AND APPLICATIONS


…

PS: Sizes of “sectors” have no connection with current or expected markets

FC TECHNOLOGIES, FUELS AND APPLICATIONS

AFC = Alkaline Fuel CellsDMFC= Direct Methanol Fuel Cell PAFC = Phosphoric Acid Fuel CellPEM = Proton Exchange Membrane FCMCFC = Molten Carbonate Fuel CellSOFC = Solid Oxide Fuel Cell


World’s number one in 2030 (?)World class competitor by 2020

Interrelated Research focused on

• Cost reduction• Materials choice and utilization• Design and manufacturing• System integration• Balance of system components• Fuels, fuel quality and fuel processing• Hydrogen production, distribution and storage• System performance (durability, efficiency)• Testing, evaluation, characterization, product

standardization

Interrelated Research focused on

• Cost reduction

• Materials choice and utilization

• Design and manufacturing

• System integration

• Balance of system components

• Fuels, fuel quality and fuel processing

• Hydrogen production, distribution and storage

• System performance (durability, efficiency)

• Testing, evaluation, characterization, productStandardizationSocio-economic research

Reg

ula

tory

Sy

ste

m

SocietyNeeds

Mark

et

Mech

an

ism

•

KEY ELEMENTS AND DRIVERS FOR A STRATEGIC RESEARCH AGENDA


Hydrogen-orientedeconomy

2050

H2 prime fuel choice for FC vehicles

A CHALLENGING EUROPEAN HYDROGEN VISIONA CHALLENGING EUROPEAN HYDROGEN VISION

FC become dominanttechnology in transport, indistributed power generation,and in micro-applications

H2 transport by road, and local H2production at refuelling station (reformingand electrolysis)

FC vehicles competitive for passenger cars

H2 produced from fossil fuels with C sequestration

H2 produced by reforming natural gasand electrolysis

Increasing de-carbonisation of H2 production;renewables, fossil fuel with sequestration, new nuclear

direct H2 production from renewables;de-carbonised H2 society

Local clusters of H2 filling stations

Stationary low temperature fuel cell systems (PEM) (<300kW)

Stationary high-temperature fuel cells systems (MCFC/SOFC) (<500kW);H2 ICEdeveloped; Demonstration fleets of FC-buses

Stationary low temperature fuel cell systems forniche commercial (<50kW)

First H2 fleets (1st generation H2 storage)

2nd generation on-board storage (long-range)

Series production of FC vehicles for fleets (direct H2 and on-board reforming)and other transport (boats); FC for auxiliary power units(incl. reformer)

Interconnection of local H2 distribution grids;significant H2 production from renewables, incl.Biomass gasification

Low-cost high temperature fuel cell systems;FCs commercial in micro-applications

Significant growth in distributed power generationwith substantial penetration of FCs

2050

H2 use in aviation

SOFC systems atmospheric and hybrid commercial (<10MW)

Widespread H2 pipeline infrastructure

Clusters of local H2 distribution grids

SKELETON FOR A EUROPEAN H2 AND FUEL CELL ROADMAP


RECOMMENDATIONS

Creation of a coherent policy framework (transport, energy and environment) rewarding technologies meeting policy objectives

Substantially increase energy RTD budget

Extend demonstration and pilot programmes

Support and integrate socio-economic research

Bringing together financing organisations

Europe-wide education and training programme

Enhancing international cooperation and communication


CONCLUSIONS Constant and durable link among European

researchers from various disciplines

A scientific “reference system” to support decision-makers

To combine quantitative and qualitative approaches

Permanent “peer-review” of tools and methodologies

Researchers should foresee and anticipate policy needs (“Roadmap”)

sustainable energy systems the eu energy research modeling tools and the high-level group on...

Documents

local h2 production

c sequestration h2

fossil fuels

european hydrogen visionfc

refuelling station reforming

field test

fc vehiclesa

passenger carsh2