Sustainable Mobility

Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt, DfS, Delft University of Technology27 March 2002 Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisboa

Sustainable Mobility

1. Introduction; Dutch Transition Management

2. Visioning and Small Scale Experiments

3. Ph.D., AIDE, and M.Sc projects at TU Delft

4. Lessons learned and further research

1. Dutch Transition Management

Persistent environmental problems: CO2, 80-90 % reduction necessaryExisting policy instruments do not work enoughNeed for European and world-wide approachTransitions and system innovations are necessary

1. Dutch Transition Management (2)

Transitions: large scale societal changes including technology, culture, institutions, behaviour, and valuesSlow societal processes towards a more sustainable situationPresent dominant car transportation regime is locked-in in an unsustainable modeRole of government as to transitions is not yet clear: facilitating, initiating, giving direction, creating sense of urgency…?

Transitions: CO2 neutral energy

2000 2030

Fossileenergy

CO2 neutral

Clean fossileincl. CO2

sequestration

Windparkon sea

Biofuel outof wast

Infrastructurefor hydrogen

Storage of heat;use of heat pumpsPower-heat

coupling atdomestic scale

PV parkson land

1. Dutch Transition Management (3)

4 transitions are mentioned in National Environmental Policy Plan-4 (2001)EnergyMobilityAgricultureBiodiversity

1. Dutch Transition Management (4)

Our hypothesis: visioning combined with small scale experiments is a necessary first step (Vergragt, Brown, Green)Visioning: SusHouse and Kathalys projectsHypothesis: in visioning and small scale experiments learning among stakeholders takes placeSecond order learning is a necessary condition for regime shift and escaping from lock-inImplementation of regime shift is less explored area (Kathalys experiences)

2. Visioning and Small Scale Experiments

Visioning: together with stakeholders brainstorming about future mobility scenariosVisioning exercises have been performed in STD Programme, SusHouse Project, IEEP Delhi project, and at INETI (Sustainable surface protection for car bodies)Visioning results in sets of ideas which need to be translated into scenariosScenarios need to be assessed with respect to environmental gain, business viability, and consumer acceptance (SusHouse method)

STD Program: factor 20

Factor 20 was defined by the following equation:

Year EB M Pr WP

2000: 1 = 1 x 1 x 12050: ½ = 1/20 x 5 x 2

EB = Environmental BurdenM = Metabolism; environmental burden per unit of need

fulfillmentPr = Level of production and consumptionWP = World Population

Time horizonsfactor

20

12000 2050

End of pipe technologies;Good house keeping; ecodesign

Technological innovation; from products to services

System innovation;transitions

Back-casting

2000 2050

factor20

1

Creativity workshop

Back-casting;Action planning

Short-termproject

1.

2.3.

SusHouse Methodology

Develop future visions in creativity workshops with stakeholdersDerive Design Orienting Scenarios (DOSs) from future visionsEnvironmental, economic assessments, and consumer acceptance research of DOSs and proposalsBack-casting and implementation workshops with stakeholders

2. The Kathalys method

Kathalysis means: acceleration of chemical reactionKathalys is collaboration between TNO-Industry and TU Delft-Design for Sustainabilitysince 1998Funded by VROM and EZaim: implementation of sustainable products and services on the market

The Kathalys method

5 phases:1 Future exploration2. System Design3. Product/service specification4. Drawing in Detail and testing5 Implementation

Kathalys-method: 2

5 tracks:a. Development of Product/service combinationb. Sustainabilityc. The organisationd. The usere. The economic feasibility

Problems with SusHouse follow-up and Kathalys

Visioning is relatively easy; enrolling stakeholders in visioning is more time consuming Developing stable business alliances is problematicImplementation in practice is problematicLittle systematic learning takes place; monitoring is costlyGovernment does not (yet?) foster systematically small-scale learning processes (niche management)

3. Ph.D. AIDE, and M.Sc projects at DfS/TUD

1. Hydrogen fuel cells: car companies strategies (Robert van den Hoed)

2. System innovation for sustainable mobility: the Mitka case (Luca Berchicci)

3. Sustainable Mobility in Delhi (Sateesh Kumar Beella)

4. Sustainable surface protection: a back-casting study (Paulo Partidario)

Automotive strategies / FC

> $50M $50M - $100

$100M - $250

$250M – 500M

> $500M

Extensive outsourcin

g

Strong collaboration

In-house core technology

development

General Motors, Toyota, Honda

Daimler-

Chrysler

FordNissan, BMW, Mazda, Hyundai

Renault, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi

Volvo, PSA, Suzuki

Fiat, Daewoo,

Fuji

Mitsubishi

Explaining factors

Strategy differences

Available fin. resources

Regulatory pressure

Company cultureFirm internal technology networkTop management support

Competencies

External network forces

3. Ph.D., AIDE, and M.Sc projects at DfS/TUD (2)

5. Sustainable transportation in Delft: the case of automatic guided vehicles (Adele Elemans)

6. Bicycles and public transportation chain combinations (Mathieu Worm)

7. Sustainable Central Station Rotterdam (Bastiaan van de Werk)

8. Sustainable Olympic Games (AIDE, 2001)9. Sustainable Texel transportation (AIDE, 2001)10. Sustainable shopping logistics (AIDE, 2001)11. Sustainable petrol station (Ivo Leeflang, Shell)

Mobility system

ParkingParking

Bus ShuttleBus ShuttlePark&Drive BusPark&Drive Bus

FerryFerry

Tex WheelerTex Wheeler

BussesBusses

TaxisTaxis

BikesBikes

Local distribution systemLocal distribution system

Scen

ari

o

Scen

ari

o

Gen

era

tion

Gen

era

tion

Final Scenario

4. Lessons learned and further research

Currently many areas of research:Car fueling and fuel infrastructure (H)Substitution for short distance car transportation (Mitka, improved bicycle)System change in mobility structure (Delhi and Mitka: Texel, Hilversun)Car body surface protection: from paint to no paint at all or surface PV cells

4. Lessons learned and further research (2)

Infrastructure as an object of study (car fuel, Mitka, Central Station, Automatic guided vehicles, bicycles)Services as an object of study: Mitka, automatic guided vehicles, bicycles and public transport)Technological trajectories and regime shifts: Hydrogen propulsion, Mitka construction

4. Lessons learned and further research (3)

Methodological research:How to organize visioning effectively and not only at the beginning, but also during an innovation process?Stakeholder management: how to select, organize, keep together, and get rid of…Implementation: how to overcome initial barriers; how to enroll powerful stakeholdersSustainability: how to monitor and steer?

4. Lessons learned and further research (4)

Theoretical research:Learning processes with stakeholdersConditions for successful regime shiftsSocial Networks as conditional for implementation

Questions and Comments?