sustainable uplands summary presentation

reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme



Plan

1. The project2. How can we prepare for the future?3. What might the future hold for uplands?4. What would this mean for ecosystem services?5. What can we do?

All photos and video have copyright permission for use in this presentation

04/08/23 2reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme


1. Sustainable Uplands Project


• 7 years (ending 2012)• Sites: Peak District, Yorkshire Dales, Galloway• £1.1M from RELU and ESRC• 29 researchers: Universities of Aberdeen, Leeds, St Andrews,

Durham, Sheffield & others with Moors for the Future & Heather Trust

Working with people in uplands to better anticipate and respond to future change


• Inputs to policy processes e.g. via Defra’s upland policy review, CRC’s upland inquiry, Foresight, NEA, Scottish Government Rural Land Use Study, IUCN peatland programme and consultation responses

• >£800K for 17 projects applying project outputs e.g. Yorkshire Water, Natural England, DEFRA, Premier Waste, United Utilities, Lancashire Wildlife Trust


The Sustainable Uplands team:University of Aberdeen:Dr Mark ReedProf Steve Redpath

University of St Andrews:Dr Ioan FazeyDr Anna Evely

Macaulay Institute:Mark SutterMike Rivington

Red = RELU 4th Phase Project

University of Durham:Prof Tim BurtDr Gareth ClayDr Fred WorrallDr Rob Dunford

University of Sheffield: Dr Christina Prell

Wirtschafts University, Austria:Dr Sigrid Stagl

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria: Jan Sendzimir

Moors for the Future partnership (Aletta Bonn)The Heather Trust (Simon Thorp)

University of Leeds:Prof Joe HoldenDr Klaus HubacekDr Nesha Beharry-BorgMs Jan BirchMs Sarah BuckmasterDr Dan ChapmanDr Pippa ChapmanDr Stephen CornellDr Andy DougillDr Evan FraserDr Jenny HodgsonDr Nanlin JinDr Brian IrvineProf Mike KirkbyDr Bill KuninMr Oliver MooreDr Claire QuinnDr Brad ParrishDr Lindsay StringerDr Mette Termansen


Uplands: many things to many people

The Future?


2. How can we prepare for the future?


“Where do we come from?

What are we?

Where are we going?”


?Fortune Telling


Dreaming


Scenarios

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Alan Kay“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today” Malcolm X


• “Thinking out of the box” to anticipate and prepare for a wider range of futures in greater depth

• Combines knowledge from multiple stakeholders with evidence from literature and computational modelling

• 7 steps…

A new approach to scenarios


1. Better understand stakeholders priorities and their relationships through stakeholder analysis and social network analysis, and select working group


2. Understand current/future challenges/opportunities: interviews & site visits with stakeholders/researchers


Managedburns overless areaDefra Burning

Code Review

10% leftunburned

Blanket BogBurning Ban

ShorterBurningSeason

Lessshooting days

Futureshooting ban

Increasedanimal rights

activism

Lowereconomic

returns fromgrouse

Lessmoorland

managed forgrouse

Smaller rurallabour pool

Demographicchange

Culturalchange

Conservationpriorities

More longheather

More scrub

Morebroadleaf

forest

Moreaccidental

fires

ClimateChange to

warmer/drier

Less erosion Less watercolour

More erosionMore water

colourLess

vegetationcover

Afforestationschemes

Coniferreplacement

schemes

Burningtechnologyadvances

CAP reform

Single farmpayment

EnvironmentalStewardship

Scheme

Hill sheepless

profitable

Less gamekeepering

Rural-urbanmigration

Ageing ruralpopulation

Less interestin rural

livelihoods

Less intensivegrazing

Agriculturalmarkets

Diversification?

Ecologicalrestoration

Recreationalpriorities

More controlof burning

Less bareground

Less 'flashy'hydrology

Badly timed burns,possibly under

burning

Reduction insheep numbers

Increasedrecreational use -walking, climbing,

tourism

Reluctance toclose moors

under fire risk

3. Conceptual system model from interviews, site visits & literature; trace drivers to create scenarios


4. Refine and prioritise scenarios for investigation


5. Model possible futures: details, feedbacks, scenarios interactions, ES trade-offs for future planning


6. Communicate model outputs through stories, films and visualisations that depict different likely futures


www.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands

7. Find innovative ways that people can respond and discuss ideas from literature (How would you respond if this happened?)

• Model innovative ideas: how likely to work? • Use results to revise/refine ideas to ensure they work


3. What might the future hold?


Intensification Scenario


Extensification Scenario


4. What would this mean for ecosystem services?


Future benefits?

• Carbon management via peatland restoration (as opposed to renewable energy developments) under the extensification scenario may bring a number of co-benefits:• Less brown water• Reduced fire risk• Protection of moorland/bog species

important for conservation• Limit scrub/forest encroachment• Supplement incomes in remote areas

via carbon markets?


But prepare for major trade-offs• Extensive management will benefit biodiversity in over-

grazed moorlands and carbon, but compromise provisioning services such as game and sheep production, and in drier locations where scrub/forest encroaches, lead to a loss of moorland species and current recreational benefits

• Intensification prioritises provisioning services at the expense of most other ecosystem services

• Both scenarios are likely to compromise upland biodiversity in in many locations• Already a source of conflict... Golden Plover


Upland communities tend to be well connected – this is the Moors for the Future partnership, in the Peak District


This is a sub-sample of 22 individuals we interviewed, showing those

who communicated most with other (no matter how infrequently) in the network as

larger dots

Hill Farming

Conservation

Sporting Interests

Water Companies

Recreation


Those who communicate on a monthly or more frequent basis

Hill Farming

ConservationSporting Interests

Water Companies

Recreation


Hill Farming


Water Companies

Recreation

“I think perhaps the moors are over-burnt and not respected from the point that they are driven too hard and pushed too hard for the purpose of the grouse…they are looking for more and more and more…But it becomes like any mono-culture then – if you’re driven so single-mindedly by one thing, that tends to knacker nature – that’s the problem.”

“At the moment there is a conflict between us [Natural England] and the people who manage fires, that we need to sort out. It’s a big thing - its probably the most important thing.”


Hill Farming

Sporting Interests

Water Companies

Recreation

Conservation

“The heather moorlands… are there because of grouse shooting. Full-stop… Whether we like it or not, grouse shooting is the raison d’être.”

“[They] want to paint by numbers. The problem is [they] can’t tell you what the numbers are. [They] can’t tell you what is going to happen.”

“I’ve spent thirty years managing land and I’ve seen all these things come and go. So when you tell me as a very sincere young man with a great deal of credentials, that your prescription is right, you just listen to me: the guy who gave me 100% grant aid…to plough heather moorland also believed he was right because moorland was “waste”.”


The majority of individuals perceive considerable overlap between their views

on upland management and the views of those they

know from other groups

Hill Farming


Water Companies

Recreation

“I hear people say “Of course ours is the best way to manage...”. It’s the best way of managing moorland for grouse production. Absolutely A1. The best for anything else? That’s open to question and that’s probably why a mix with people doing different things is our best hope of creating some semblance of balance.”

Agent


5. What can we do?


1. Link agricultural payments more effectively to provision of ecosystem services


2. Remove policy barriers to facilitate peatland restoration via carbon markets


3. Establish a national partnership of upland researchers, policy makers and practitioners to share knowledge and

develop a shared agenda for future research


RELU 4th phase project:• Understanding KE/KM processes• LWEC upland/peatland

Research, Policy & Practice Hub


Contactwww.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands

Follow us on:

www.twitter.com/reluuplands

Email: [email protected]

Call or text on: 0797 428 6778

sustainable uplands summary presentation

Education

future planning

future hold

future change

future heather trust

university of aberdeen

future partnershipaletta

sustainable uplands

land use programme