sustainablecommunitiesinscotland...

Sustainable Communities in Scotland

Scenarios for the Future

forewordWhatmight sustainable communitieslook like inScotland in 2030? That is thequestion Scotland’s Futures Forumhasbeen asking itself over the last year, alongwith 23 other public sector organisations.

The result of which is a set of scenariosproviding a glimpse of what sustainablecommunitiesmaymean in Scotland in thefuture, for better orworse. The scenarios,developed largely through a public sectorlens, have been created to stimulatepublic policy debate and become a tool toencourage political discussion on some ofthe short andmedium termactions andinterventions thatmust be put in placeto either achieve or avoid the futuredescribed in the scenario narratives.

The Forumnowplans to use the scenariosas a basis for discussionwith a number oforganisations and networks to generatenew thinking in the run up to theHolyroodElections of 2011.

The Forum’s Board of Directors believethe scenarios to be robust and creativeand I congratulate everyonewho has beeninvolved in the process. I also hope peoplewill disagreewith theworld viewspresented in some of the scenarios andI hopemy colleagues at Holyrood arechallenged to consider themanyquestions that emerge from this pieceof work.

Lastly, I would like to particularly thank,Professor PeterMcKiernan and his teamat the Department of Business Studiesat St AndrewsUniversity who skillfullyguided the project community throughthe scenario process.

ALEXFERGUSSONMSPChairman, Scotland’s FuturesForum

Scotland 2030 I Foreword I

introThevalueof scenariosNobody can predict the future andany scenario ismerely a snapshot ofwhat the futuremay hold. However,scenarios can be a useful tool inhelping us to bemore strategicallyprepared tomeet an uncertain future;the oil company Shell has usedscenarios to very good business effectover the last 30 years. Scenarios arenecessarily based on a number offixed assumptions and drivers ofchange so, in some sense, the valueof scenarios can be limitedwhen thefuture is rarely a straightforwardextrapolation of the past. In otherwords, themore ‘fixed assumptions’to go into a scenario the less likelyit will be an accurate picture of whatthe futurewill ultimately hold but, iftoo few fixed assumptions and trenddata go into a scenario, the lessresonance it will havewith the reader.The trick to producing a balanced setof scenarios is in the process throughwhich they are developed.

The Forum’s process has beenvery robust, guided by the SchoolofManagement at the Universityof St Andrews, under Professor PeterMcKiernan, and a project communitymade up of representatives from23public sector agencies.

This former body has been engagedwith scenario planning since 1988 andhas undertaken over 200 scenariointerventions formajor ppublicand private sector bodies aroundtheworld.

The base data, evidence andresearch that has informedthe creativewriting of thescenarios are published onScotland’s Futures Forumwebsiteatwww.scotlandfutureforum.org

Ultimately, the value of this exerciseis not in publishing the scenarionarrative but in using the narrativesto help others consider their strategicpriorities for the future.

I amdelighted that already a numberof organisations have expressedinterest in using the scenarios tochallenge and test the assumptionsof their own staff and networks.

In the comingmonths the Forumwill be sharing the scenarioswith:

ParliamentaryCommitteesin theScottishParliament

Women inLeadershipinScotlandNetwork

TheRSAandBarnardosScotland

TheScottishEnvironmentalProtectionAgency

TheScottishYouthParliament

ScottishCivil Servants through theForum’s ‘Questioning theFuture’seminarSeries

Following consideration of thescenarios by these and other groupsand organisations, the Forumwillpublish a follow-up paper describingthe new learning to emerge.

A number of people have beeninvolved in this project and I amvery grateful to them for their input.Thosewho have been involved arelisted on page 61.

Scotland 2030 I Foreword I

MethodologyThe Scenario process startedwith the compilation of a dataworkbook (available atwww.scotlandfutureforum.org).This workbook took severalmonthsto complete.

Theworkbookwas added to bya number of case studieswhichwere identified as currently beinggood examples of sustainablecommunities. These case studieswere collated and then added toaction research from the Islandof Tiree and fromRaplochUrbanRegeneration Company.

Three groups ofmasters studentsat the University of St Andrewsweregiven the task of identifying relevantdetails and creating the first threedrafts of theworkbook. Gaps in theresearchwere then filled by onesenior researcherwho advised theprocess.

The next stage in the processwasfor the Forum to identify gaps inthe base research and ensure theworkbookwas complete and ascomprehensive as possible.

Following this, Forum researchersengaged in evidence gatheringsessionswith a number of keyorganisations, for example The RoyalSociety of Edinburgh, Scottish andSouthern Energy, SEPA, and ScottishWater.

27 sectoral experts then cametogether in St Andrews for a 2 dayscenario workshopwhere the keydrivers for changewere identifiedandwhere the skeleton scenariomatrixes started to emerge.

Based on this exercise, the scenarionarrativeswere then drafted out bya professional writer. These draftswere then testedwith the projectcommunity through 2workshops andthrough 4 standard scenario testsconsidering:> Gestalt criteria> Internal consistency> External consistency> Surprise elementsRepeating this process led to 2further drafts of the scenarionarratives.

TermsofReferenceAt the start of this process, theForumwas challenged to considerwhat sustainable communitiesmightmean in Scotland in 2030without aworking definition of either‘sustainable’ or ‘communities’.We started the processwith anassumption that the scenarioswould, in the end, predominatelydescribe a Scotlandwhere the useof transport, energy, water andwastewould bemore ‘sustainable’.However, in going through thescenario process our notion of‘sustainability’ widened as did ourunderstanding of ‘community’. Theproject community came to considersustainability in amore holisticsense. This definition informedmuchdiscussion in the process andmeantamuch richer narrative emerged.

RobertRaeDirector, Scotland’s FuturesForum

‘Sustainability’ has no single or agreedmeaning. ‘It takes onmeaningwithin different political ideologies and programmesunderpinned by different kinds of knowledge, values andphilosophy’ (Huckle 1996: 3). A ‘weak’ view of sustainabledevelopment looks to continuing economic growth on termsthat favour existing financiers and corporations (whilemaintaining the support of themajority of voters in countrieslike the UK). A strong view ‘represents a revised formof self-reliantcommunity developmentwhich sustains people’s livelihoods usingappropriate technology’ (Huckle 1996: 4). The formerwould fit inwithwhatwemight now describe as themainstreamof politicsinmany northern countries; the latter represents a greener andmore holistic vision. It echoes the concerns of E. F. Schumacher(1973) when he argued for a concernwith appropriate scale,wholeness and connectedness.

©MarkK. Smith 2006, 2008

Scotland 2030 I Intro I

opportunites missed

Scotland 2030 I Intro I

Key Questions for MSPsand Policy Makers

Has Scotlandmissed the renewables boatby allowing itsmanufacturing capabilitiesto run down to far?

Can the private and third sectors plugthe gap in infrastructure investment leftby reduced public spending? How, andbywhom,will priorities be determined?

Is renewed depopulation of rural Scotlandinevitable, given the prospect of risingtransport costs, lower employmentopportunities and the potential impactof climate change on tourism?And, if so,what are the implications for theCentral Belt?

Should public provision be doingmoreto help Scottish companies adjust to aninternational trading environmentincreasingly dominated by non-westerncultures?

Everyone agrees that public spendingprioritieswill need to bemore sharplyfocused – but onwhat?

The scenario envisages an endemicScottish underclass, the “ferals”. Do youshare that fear, do you think it plausible inthe time-scale suggested, and if sowhatare the key policy instruments tomitigate it?

After decades of consumerism, is theScottish public ready for a low-growthfuture? How can they be sold it? CanScotland dowithout some of the resourcesit cannot provide for itself?

Whatmore should the education systembedoing to equip Scotland to compete in aglobalised economy, and can it be donewithout diminishing awareness of our ownculture? For example, shouldwe beteachingMandarin andHindi rather thanFrench andGaelic?

What can/should be done to spread thebenefits of Scottish entrepreneurialism?

Can/shouldmore be done to keep Scottishbusinesses Scottish?

What are the policy implications – positiveand negative – the recent trauma inScotland’s financial services sector?

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Scotland 2030 I Scenario 1 I OpportunitiesMissed I

Opportunities missedKeyassumptions in 2030> Scotland remains within the UK, with broadly the present devolved powers

> Low/negative economic growth rates to 2030, and falling average real incomes

> Increasedworld fuel prices, especially in fossil fuels, which combine with fiscalpenalties for greenhouse emissions to push up the price of imports

> Persistently low Scottish investment in:

• Capital equipment

• R&D, including renewables

• Education and skills upgrading

• Public infrastructure

• Accessing high-growth internationalmarkets, e.g. the BRIC countries

> Accelerated rural depopulation

> Amarked demographic shift, with fewer earners supportingmore dependants

> Reduced public spending, and smaller government

> Increased incentives for individual entrepreneurship

> An increased role for the Third Sector in delivering public services, with someinnovative social entrepreneurship and growing scope to vary local provision

> A growing femalemanagerial presence,mostly confined to social enterprises

> Widening wealth, skills and health gaps

> Continued erosion of indigenous company base

> The rest of the UK failing to performmarkedly better


international contextIn scenario 1, it can be reasonably assumed thatScotland’s fortunes in 2030, in the internationalmarketplace, aremixed. Scotland’s place in the worldand its economic fortunes are bound to those of therest of the UK. The UK’s rate of economic growthremains slow. Economic power has transferred toChina, India and Brazil who simply do not complywith western trade rules which historically favouredthe UK. Scottish entrepreneurialism is patchy butsufficiently high profile tomaintain Scotland’s ‘highstandard’ reputation internationally. Scotland is anet importer of food and fuel.


the inheritanceScots were always proud of theircountry’s rugged record of individualinnovation and achievement.Our history celebrates Hume, Smith,Watt, Kelvin, Carlyle, Carnegie, Bell,Baird, Fleming, and a hundred others.While wemay never, as a people, havesigned up to the 1980s idea that thereis no such thing as society, we havenevertheless tended to treat readinessto empower exceptional individuals ofall classes to attain their potentialmeasure as an importantmeasureof a civilised society. Thismeans asociety that supports, and does notimpede, the individual scholar, thinkeror entrepreneur. The demotic (if nowarchaically sexist) name for theproduct of this approach – the lado’pairts – remains a powerful totem athird of the way through the 21stcentury; and the developments ofthe past two decades have, inmanyrespects, extended the scope forhim/her to prosper.

What has lent these individuals aheroicmantle in the eyes of the world,if not always of their countryfolk, istheir ability to prevail against thedifficulties that history and geographyhave bequeathed to Scotland.Providence has not dealt us a kindlyhand.We are a junior partner in afractious state that has now struggledfor a century with the challenges ofpost-imperial adjustment. We areattentive to the suspicion that ourlarger partner to the south is doingbetter from the deal thanwe are, andconsequently neglectful of wider,more instructive, influences. We arelocated on the far periphery of ourmainstay Europeanmarketplace, andsometimes find it hard to feel part ofpolitical changes that take place there,let alone to adapt to changes in thewider world.

A half century of virtual trading hascreated a globalmarketplace at theexpense of indigenous commerce,and favoured emerging countrieswith lower production costs andoverheads than Scotland. ThoseScottish businesses that haveflourished in this environment havemostly found advantage in offshoringactivities or relocating away fromScotland. Though public policy hassought to combat this trend byalternately seeking to cut fiscal costsor investing in better skills andinfrastructure, neither approachhas brought sustained or sustainablesuccess.


Wehave a picturesque butunaccommodating geography, anda volatile climate. This, coupled withexpensive transport costs, has drivena once- promising tourist trade awayto warmer and cheaper destinationsand helped accelerate the apparentlyunstoppablemigration towards thecentral belt

Though Scotland’s energy resourcesonce appeared lavish, they are nolonger viable: seemingly, the remainingcoal is too environmentally damagingto dig, the remaining oil too remoteto be worth extracting, the possibilityof nuclear renewal left unresolved bya sterile and protracted debate that wasat least asmuch about constitutionalpride as energy needs. Subsequentescalations in imported energy costshave significantly disadvantaged aScotlandwherepublic transport canonly accommodate a tiny proportionof journey choices. The onlymitigation

has been a reduced demand for energy,and therefore for imported fuels, aslarge-scale economic activity hasdeclined. Foreign travel too hasdecreased, withmore Scots settlingfor a received virtual understandingof the wider world, though this hasnot generally translated into increasedinternal travel. Energy generation fromnatural resources – wind, waves,tides – has grown significantly, andthough it has gone someway tomitigate rising energy costs for Scotsas for everyone else, the commercialbenefits of its exploitation have largelyflowed overseas.

Though Scotland’s energy resourcesonce appeared lavish, they are no longerviable: seemingly, the remaining coal istoo environmentally damaging to dig,the remaining oil too remote to beworthextracting, the possibility of nuclearrenewal left unresolved by a sterile andprotracted debate that was at least asmuch about constitutional pride asenergy needs. Subsequent escalationsin imported energy costs havesignificantly disadvantaged a Scotlandwhere public transport can onlyaccommodate a tiny proportion ofjourney choices. The onlymitigationhas been a reduced demand for energy,and therefore for imported fuels, aslarge-scale economic activity hasdeclined.

Foreign travel too has decreased,withmore Scots settling for a receivedvirtual understanding of thewiderworld, though this has not generallytranslated into increased internal travel.Energy generation fromnaturalresources –wind, waves, tides – hasgrown significantly, and though it hasgone someway tomitigate rising energycosts for Scots as for everyone else, thecommercial benefits of its exploitationhave largely flowed overseas.


Scotland in 2030This inheritance has powerfully shapedthe Scotlandwe see about us in the 2030s.Prudent public policy, like prudent privateplanning,must always proceed from arealistic assessment of the world as it is,not a wistful dream of the world wemightwish to inhabit. The stability that resultsfrom cumulative rather than erraticchange is its own reward, and some of theoutcomes it has delivered are undoubtedlypositive.

Economic adversity in the early yearsof the century tended to accentuate, ratherthanmitigate, these inherited Scottishcharacteristics, and thereby to constrainthemore ambitious excesses of theidealists. The shift in global economicpower from the US/West European/Japanese-dominated 20th centuryto the Asia/India/East European/Latin America-led 21st did Scotland fewfavours. We found it largely beyond us tomake inroads into these idiosyncratic anddemanding newmarkets for our dwindlingstock of recognised brands. Some drawconsolation from the observation that thisposition is reflected in the UK as awhole,and that Scotland’s position as a small,import-dependent, economically stagnantbackwater is not substantially grimmerthan that of our southern neighbour.Others wonder why we should find thissuch a perpetual comfort.

There was nonetheless some positiveupside to the narrative. A falling tax base,coupled with a growing demography ofelderly people and other dependants,led inexorably to smaller government, andthereby to a populationmore ready, forcemajeure, to look to its own resources ratherthan to await succour from the state.Against the background of endemiceconomic decline, individual businesssuccesses shone all themore brightly.A few individuals have achieved levels ofbusiness success that won internationalrepute, ensuring that Scotland’s imageas a wellspring of ingenuity continues to berecognised abroad. Against that, however,the ever-widening gap between executiverewards and average earnings has arguablydiscouraged entrepreneurship, since thosewith a flair for business can get richerfaster by climbing the corporate ladderrather than by shouldering the risks andresponsibilities of building their ownbusinesses. It has also encouraged Scottishstart-ups to sell up to predators at an everearlier stage in their growth, with founderssettling contentedly for highly-remuneratedpositions in the larger acquisitor. Some ofthese entrepreneurial businesses haveretained a residual presence as the Scottisharm of themultinationals:most havedisappeared into the corporatemaw.


The role of the ThirdSector in civic life haschanged and grown. The experiment in theearly 2000s of co-opting the Third Sectordirectly into wholesale delivery of publicservices suffered from conflation withthe need to drive down public spending.Butmany voluntary bodies refocused theirenergies instead into small-scale socialentrepreneurship to replace abandonedstate services.

Women have played a particularly powerful rolein driving the social-entrepreneurial agenda,demonstrating their ability to break free oftraditional institutional career restraints,in terms of leadership and responsibility if notalways of income. Some social enterpriseshave proved consistently innovative, even iftheir impact on the wider economy remainsmodest. Traditional charities, however, havefound it consequently harder to secureadequate funds, given the potential investmentreturns to be had from social enterprises.

At both geographical and shared-interest level,communities have gained social importance,taking on something of the pre-industrial roleof parishes, with individual activists workingtogether tomake community provision for almsand services no longer provided by the state.Scotland’smuch-mythologised communitariantradition has thus been rediscovered in a new

form. The new communities do not hold townhall meetings. They look instead to exploit thepotential of personalised communicationstechnology tomeld individual perceptions intomutually acceptable policy frameworks foraction. This has both a civil and economicdimension. The now rather old-fashioned,though expressive, slang term for thistechnique is “bundling theblogs”. It is anefficient way tomeasure opinion, though olderpeople lament the decline of social interactionand conversation. Increasingly, too, shared-interest communities have used networkingtechnologies to reap the benefits of grouppurchasing. Unfortunately, mainstreamScottish businesses have been rather leftbehind in developingmarketing techniquescapable of responding effectively to thisphenomenon. Some social enterprises,however, have proved fleeter of foot.


But this growth in community consciousness,while it has beguiled themore romantic breedof commentator, remains a patchy, and largelymiddle-class, phenomenon. The ability to put theindividualism of today’s virtual social structureto constructive common use is largely confinedto the educated and the engaged. It has done littleto improve the lot of deprived communities,especially in the cities. In both urban and ruralScotland, there is a disaffected underclass,which feels a predacious envy and hostilitytowards themore advantaged communities,alongwith a diminishing obligation towards thesupposedly commonmoral values. This is, alas,a longway from the constructive rivalries thatpolicy-makers promote between communities,and it encourages even themost successfulcommunities to guard their achievementsand assets jealously.

The old concept of the postcode lottery, firstused in respect of attempts to localise stateprovision, has reappeared in the popular lexicon.The underclass is characterised by alienation,disaffectionwith social values, resistance toprescribed vehicles for socialmobility, vulnerabilityto high costs of energy, housing and services,entrenchedly poor health records and high levelsof substance abuse. Scotland’s reputation as the“sickman of Europe” appears irredeemable.However, within even themost deprivedcommunities, the same forces can nurture afierce internal loyalty, in which community valuesare rigorously (if sometimes brutally) enforced.At its best, this can generate a tough self-reliance,and a pragmatic disinclination to expect outsidehelp. At its worst, it embeds ignorance and apathy,by discouraging the ambition to excel or escape.

SCHOO

MEALS

ONWHEEL

S CIVICINFRASTRUCTUREDESTROYED

Pressu re onThi rd Sector

Poor recycling

Agingunderclass

Fewer wealthierindividuals


A perennial debate surrounds the question ofwhy Scotland finds it so hard to translate individualbusiness success into sustainable orwidely sharedwealth creation. Entrepreneurs complain that, inspite of reduced governmental intervention andsome lowering of taxation, Scotland has become aless amenable place inwhich to do business. Lowergovernment expenditure hasmeant lower publicinvestment, creating costs, for example indistribution or skills provision, which businessfinds hard to bear. Social unrest and victimisationhavemade it harder to recruit workers fromothercountries tomitigate labourmarket failures, andmany of these countries can now offer their exilescomparable living standards back home.

These forces create something of a vicious circle:

> Lower investment in skills and lifelong learninghas reduced the capacity of Scottish businessesto innovate and grow.

> Lower growth and lower innovationmeanslowerwages, reducing the purchasing powerof Scottish consumers and encouragingambitious Scottish growth companies to lookbeyond Scotland at an ever earlier stage intheir development.

> Lower business revenuesmean lowerpublicspending, whichmean lower levels of businesssupport. They also reduce the capacity of youngScottish companies to innovate, andmake themmore susceptible to takeover.

> The evaporation of corporate HQs, andincreased dependence on overseas ownershipputs Scottish plants at the back of the queuefor investment in new products, plant andprocesses… and top of the list for closurecome a downturn.


The renewable energy sector isperhaps themost notorious case inpoint. Though energy economics arefamously volatile, retrospection doesencourage the conclusion thatScotland’s failure to invest at an earlyenough stage, andwith sufficientcommitment, in the training andinfrastructure needed to turnrenewables into a sustainable,Scottish-owned, international-scaleindustry was amajormissedopportunity. Themature industry wesee now is impressive enough in size,and there ismuch native pride inScotland’s sporadic ability to exportsurplus electricity generated by itswinds andwaves. But the gain to theScottish economy ismuch less thanthe uplift to national vanity, and thebulk of our energy needs continues tocome from overseas-based suppliers –in some cases, selling us back energygenerated from our own renewablesources. Much renewables technologyrelies on the sort of basic engineeringtechniques thatmid-20th CenturyScotland took in its stride. These skillswere largely abandoned in the servicesboom of the late 20th Century, and itsubsequently proved too expensive, ata time of public spending constraint, torebuild them quickly enough to catchupwith our competitors. By and large,Scotland’s prodigious supplies ofrenewable wind andwave energyare harvested with importedtechnology, often owned and operatedbymultinational businesses basedfurth of Scotland. These provide quitea significant number ofmostlylow-grademaintenance and processjobs for Scottish workers, and therehas been an encouraging spread ofsmall-scale community self-genera-tion projects. But the big value-addgenerally happens elsewhere.

Lack of investment has brought aboutamarked decline in the quality ofScotland’smajor infrastructure. Thecar, though less affordable (because of

fuel costs) tomuch of the population, isnow the only way to access a greatproportion of Scotland’s landmass, anddepopulation of remoter areas hasaccelerated. Road, port, rail, air andtelecom links with the wider worldand itsmarkets are no longer fit forpurpose. Again, the result ispolarisation. Prosperous communities,particularly those with universities attheir heart, have achieved somenotable successes from innovation andconnectivity, attracting inflows ofinvestment and talent. But reducedgovernmental intervention – forexample, in underpinning academicresearch and supporting businesses totake advantage of it – has diminishedthe general benefit that flows fromacademic successes.

Many critics have pointed to Scotland’srefusal to follow England’s lead inincreasing the contributionmade bystudent fees. But funding is not theonly factor in a poor educationalperformance. Scottish education hasnever quite broken free from thealmostmystical 19th and 20th centuryconviction that it is – as if by rights –the best in the world. As outcomesfrom schools and colleges have fallenincreasingly short of the needs of achanging economy, the debate overeducation policy has retreated everfurther into a dour traditionalism,represented by supposed remediesthat begin with the words “Bringback…” Even now, there is still atendency to question why a sustainedfocus of resources on “The Three R’s”has failed to win Scotland a competitiveedge over other countries’ puzzlingobsessions with teachingMandarin andUrdu, international communications,and advanced skills in software,nano-electronics and biomedicine.Still, Scotland’s private schools docontinue to draw pupils to them, asbeacons of dignity and tradition thatwill never dim.


As already noted, successful entrepreneurshave found advantage in selling up ever earlierin the lives of their businesses, while highachievers are increasingly driven to seek theirfortune elsewhere. The corrosive belief hasgrown, in almost every field of endeavour –from commerce to the professions, and the artsto the sciences – that the truly ambitious canonly achieve their destiny outside Scotland. Sucha beliefmust inevitably become self-fulfilling.The empowered community, while sometimescapable of punching above its weight, is toosmall to hold the ambitious young.

Still, resurgent communitymutuality hasthrown up some impressive local initiativesin environmental and energy sustainability.Some communities now source almost all theirelectricity needs from small-scale sustainablegeneration, and there have been landmarkachievements in combined heat and power, localbiofuels, community recycling and composting,local water purification plants and responsivecommunity transport. Many of these activitieshave spawned new small businesses, oftencommunity-based or owned. But the lack of

national strategic intervention in adequateconnective infrastructure or to scale themupindustrially, together with their inability to offerexciting early returns to institutional investors,has prevented them from approaching criticalmass, and left the best vulnerable to corporatetakeover. The savings they generate forScotland, while not inconsiderable in aggregate,are offset by overall dependence on expensiveimports of energy, food and other staples. Lowerspending power hasmade price sensitivity thedominantmarket force: not the terms onwhichScotlandwould ever choose to compete.

It is nevertheless some consolation to livein a Scotland in which the fittest can prosper,not just survive. Our society has probably neverbeenmore competitive or territorial, even ifthis has been achieved at some cost to socialcohesion andmorale. Scotland can take pridein the success ofmany well-known individualsover the past quarter century, andmay someday reap communal benefits from the narrativethese individuals have taken out into the worldabout the country and values that bore them.


what it looks likeMuch of the landscape has grownuglier. Accelerated rural depopulationhas turned villages into shanty-townretreats for those unable to prevailin the cut-throat competition for adwindling supply of worthwhileurban jobs. Opportunities forthese communities are few, andlawlessness between them is rife.

While the trend towardsmore basicfood staples has seen somemarginalland brought into cultivation, theemployment gains have beenmorethan offset by the collapse ofthe tourismsector and thenear-exhaustion of fish stocks.Remoteness, poverty and hightransport costs discourage investmentin local food processing. The poorestrural communities are paradoxicallythosemost dependent on expensiveimported bulk food products, often of

dubious nutritional value.GM foods,grown to help feed the world’s poorestpopulations, are increasingly seen asa symbol of Scottish rural poverty

Where work has become availableon the estates of theuber-wealthy,new townships have sprung upwhichcan sometimes attain a fair level ofcontentment and stability. But theyare haunted by a constant fear ofpredatory attack from those outsidetheir boundaries, trapped by ruralScotland’s general lack of economicand physicalmobility.

The cities too show the scars ofuneven and often inadequatecommunalmaintenance andservice provision. While falling realwage levels enable wealthierneighbourhoods to hire casual labourand thereby sustain themselves tohigh standards, elsewhere roads

and buildings crumble from enforcedneglect. The imbalance betweenwealthy and deprived districts growsever starker, now often lent physicaldimensions by protective boundarywalls and fences around the enclavesof the privileged. Within theseenclaves, home-owners – or theiremployees – are to be seen in allweathers busily tending to theirfortified gardens. It can be a pleasinglyrustic scene, though older citizenslament the disappearance of colourfrom suburbia, as flowers give way tovegetable cultivation.


Beyond these suburban ramparts, analienated underclass – commonly knownas “the ferals” – leads a feckless andincreasingly predatory existence,manyliving in the overcrowded “social”housing created in the shells of disusedcommercial properties. Despite the voguefor thrift, refuse is widely tipped and leftto fester. Though there have long beenboth individual and community penaltiesof increasing severity for excessiverecourse to landfill, neither the positiveincentives nor the public facilities weresufficient tomeet the evermoreunrealistic recycling targets set bygovernment. An inevitable backlashoccurred. The sanitary consequences oftipping and of uneven utility provisionserve to exacerbate an already wideninggulf between the healthprofiles ofScotland’s rich and poor communities.

Public buildings, shops and factorieshave all-but vanished. The prestige officedevelopments of the early century survivehere and there as housing conversions,but bureaucratic employment is nowlargely franchised out to home-basedvirtual offices, or offshored. Municipalbuildings – city chambers, concert halls,libraries, health centres – have retreatedinto themists ofmore Keynesian times.In urban and rural locations alike, ruinedchurches have taken on an air of heritagesites. Ironically, despite the near-totaldisappearance of organised worship, thesearch for ameaning is evermore ferventas life itself becomes less purposeful.Every day new belief systems burst uponthe cyberwaves, not all of them theworkof charlatans. So far, though, none hastempted its followers away from theirscreens in significant numbers intophysically co-located communal ritual.


the return of make-do and mendA combination of low economic growth, asteadily if unspectacular public commitmentto recycling, and amounting revulsionagainst waste has had one ethicallybeneficial consequence for the Scotlandof 2030.

The old Scots virtues of thrift and ingenuityhave taken on a new chic. There is now afashionable cachet inmaking ormendingclothes, creating new dishes frommodest orleftover ingredients and repairing rather thandiscarding old consumer durables.

Humble skills like darning or patching areprized as social attributes, and no longerregarded as the sole preserve of women.Middle-class Scots now take high pride infamily resourcefulness, where their parents’generation preferred to show off their latestacquisitions. The wasteful buy-and-discardobsolescence of the consumer age is seentoday as laughably gauche. Homespunis cool.

The initial impetus for these changes waseconomic rather thanmoral: notably, the fallin average family incomes, whichmadeeradicating food waste, for example,something of a practical imperative.

Now, the economic consequences aremixed.

On a local scale, the new thrift has givenrise to a significant number of small ormicro-businesses, though few lookequipped to growmuch beyond serving theirimmediate communities. Those Scottishpublishing houses which survived the printcollapse of the early century have likewisedone good business running infosites.

But it has not happened on such a scale asto offset the dominant trend reduction inconsumer demandwhich has all-but endedtraditional retail in favour of remotely-ownedvirtual stores. An already sluggish demandformanufactured commodities in whichScotland had some residual strength intothe 21st century – quality knitwear, luxuryfoodstuffs, consumer electronics – is noweffectively extinct.

The soaring cost of imported food – inflatedby rising fuel prices and international climatechange tariffs – brought some initialexpansion for Scottish agriculture andfisheries. But a historical legacy ofover-fishing left dwindling catches tomeetthese demands, and Scotland’s geographylimited the opportunities for substantial

expansion in agricultural, especially arable,output. At the same time, some rathermuddled scientific debate over the extent towhich food production itself contributes toclimate change deterred government fromincentivising production

Once again, a reversion to the romance ofarts and crafts has, to a limited extent atleast, filled the gap. In wealthier suburbs,people are increasingly interested in growingtheir own vegetables and keeping chickens.But for those who lack serviceable gardens,food hasmade ever larger demands onhousehold incomes, the reverse of the trendenjoyed by their parents’ generation. Thepoor find nutritious food increasingly beyondtheir purses, and thehealth gap betweenthe privileged and the underclass yawnsever wider.


the turnings not takenWhat a sour, rebarbative wee place Scotlandhas become in 2030! A generation ago,people used to complain that its politics wereparalysed by constitutional particularism. Fromthe viewpoint of today’s recrimination-drivenpolitics, hindsight lends those times somethingapproaching grandeur.

The central topic of Scottish politics in the2030s iswhatmight have been. The obsessionwithmissed opportunities is reminiscent of the1970s, when Scots looked enviously at therevival of the defeated countries fromWorldWar Two andwondered how these economieshadmanaged to build such prosperity from therubble whenwe had so signally failed tosqueeze performance from the ageing assetswe had left.

Now, as then, the debate is about who toblame, rather thanwhat went wrong.Most agree on themain opportunitiesthatweremissed:

> Failure to re-think public service deliveryafter the economic crisis of the earlycentury

> Failure to convert the energies of femaleentrepreneurship, evident in the rise ofthe social enterprises, into widersustainable economic benefit

> Failure to fund consistent investmentin new skills, products and processes

> Failure to work hard or fast enough oncreating a presence in emergingmarkets

> Failure tomodernize education,especially in learning the languagesof emerging economies and theprinciples of emerging technologies

> Failure to invest sufficiently in the R&Dand infrastructure needed to exploitScotland’s potential in renewableenergies

> Failure to plan sufficiently for rising costsin fuels and imports

> Failure to have the political confidenceto think beyond comparisonswith our UKneighbours.

Apportioning culpability for thesemissed policyturnings keeps Scotland’s politicians endlesslyoccupied and even diverted. What they seem tofind harder to assert with any confidence is howto turn the failures of the past into thesuccesses of the future.


A Women’s Perspective in 2030Portrait Catriona

I am currently working as the Director for a charity that helps youngmums in the centre of Glasgow to gain the skills and support they needto provide for themselves and their children. Our aim is to encouragethese women to thrive instead of just survive by nurturing their dreamsand helping them develop step-by-step to reach their goals.

I came to this position in Glasgow after working for three years withvarious NGOs in Southeast Asia following University. This was arewarding experience, but I had always been a leader growing up and Iknew I had more to give. I was very interested in maximising the potentialof a third sector organisation from the administrative side and, therefore,returned to Scotland to work toward my PhD in management in the thirdsector at a top Scottish University. Following completion of my degree,I was hired at a management level in my current organisation. Since I hada unique skills set, they were eager to have me. The pay isn’t great (butthat’s the case with most in Scotland now) but I find the work veryrewarding. I get to work on the new programmes and fundraising initiativeswe’re developing in addition to spending a few hours a week working handson with the young women we serve.

I’m unmarried and don’t have any children of my own, but I see theexperience of helping these women to raise their children as my life’swork. I think all the time what would happen if, alongside basic supportfor these women, we insisted on and facilitated their training for a joband helped them find one. I do wish the government would do more in theway of social care for the women we aim to help, as it would positivelyimpact our efforts and could provide more funding for the charity,but I am keen to take on these funding challenges.

The Forum is extremely grateful for thiscontribution from theWomen Leaders in ScotlandNetwork. A short paper, prepared by theWomen's Group, critiquing the each scenario isavailable at page 58.

Scotland 2030 I Scenario 2 I Opportunities Taken I


opportunites taken


If the Scottish Parliament gains increasedfiscal responsibilities, should it go down theroad of hypothecated taxes?Whatwould bethe barriers – practical, political, ethical –to doing so? What are the advantages/disadvantages?

Does interactive technology offer a practicalopportunity formore direct and constantpublic participation in decisionmaking?Would Scotland’s Parliament and localauthorities be ready to pay heed to anempowered public?

If public service provision is to becomemore localised – eg, through communityempowerment, third sector delivery or“TheBig Society” –what should be roleof the political centre in setting or policingstandards?

Is poor socialisation of Scottish children anyof the state’s business? If so, what are thekey policy instruments for addressing it?

Is Scotland in danger of putting toomanyeggs in the renewables basket?

Would exports of surplus Scottishwaterrepay the upfront infrastructure investmentneeded to facilitate them?

How can Scotland ensure that it attractsand capitalises on the highly skilledimmigrants itmay need, without themsimply returning to their country of originafter a short period of time?

Howproactive should the state be inensuring that Scotland’s land is put tooptimumuse?

Can communities achieve common valueswithout scapegoats?

In terms of where policy decisions aremade, is small beautiful or is itBalkanisation?

GivenHolyrood’s perennial concernwithhaving enough powers, is it likely to beready to hand some away to communities?

Would a decentralised Scotland be equallyeffective across both boomand bust?

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international contextThe international context in scenario 2 seesScotland’s experience in sustainable technologiesbeing turned into a dynamic role as an internationalbroker for unilateral, bilateral andmultilateralclimate change initiatives and partnerships.

Scotland becomes a hub linking the east andwestin international relations. Scotland has beenmuchmore selective and successful in choosing ‘winningmarkets’. Recognising it could not compete withthe rise of low-wage economies in Asia and SouthAmerica, Scotland instead focused on localproduction for local consumption.

Opportunities takenKeyassumptions in 2030> The Scottish parliament has acquiredadditional powers to those of 2010, notablya significantmeasure of fiscal autonomy

> Scotland has used its fiscal powers to levyperiodic additional hypothecated taxes,e.g. for improved public transport

> A SovereignWealth Fund from renewablesrevenues, re-invested to pump-prime furtherstrategic investment

> Land use has become a central, butcontentious, policy concern

> World fuel prices have risen, fossil fuelsin short supply, import prices high

> Hopes of concerted climate change action,along Rio/Kyoto lines, have faded.

> Recession has left public disillusionedwithtraditional political/employment structures.New enthusiasm for subsidiarity andparticipation, powered by new generationinteractive software which Scotland haspioneered

> Localised renewables outputs connected upwith national infrastructure, allowing smallsurpluses to be exported. Similar plans are inhandwith water

> Megabrand globalisation has fallen out offavour, and improved connectivity is insteadused to showcase local specialist products toa globalmarketplace

> Communities hold key policy levers, and theirinclusive decision-making has broughtinnovative approaches to demographic andother challenges.

> A small socio-economic underclass persists,and greatly worries themajority.


the inheritanceThis Scotland of the 2030s is, likemost cultures, a fusion ofinherited attributes and adoptive attitudes, though it can drawsome satisfaction from having selectedmany of the best tofuse. A case in point is the old Scottish icon of the lad o’pairts.Contemporary Scotland has upheld and even enhanced theequality of educational opportunity that allows the lad (orlass) to cultivate these ‘pairts’ however humble his/herorigins. But, crucially, it also gives weight to the communalcontributionmade to providing these opportunities, andexpects the prodigy to return some of the benefits ofeducation and development to the community fromwhich heor she sprung, and thereby to enhance opportunity for futuregenerations.

Addressing inequalities in educational opportunity,especially at the earliest ages, has paid other dividends too.The poor socialisation that contributedmassively toScotland’s endemic social problems – literacy, articulacy,behaviour, substance abuse – in the early years of thiscentury has been significantly improved through publicinvestment in creating techniques and technologies gearedto early skills development. Pre-school education, onceregarded as littlemore than a child-minding service forworking parents, is now accorded equal investment prioritywith tertiary education, and recognised as a key opportunityto generate the “people” skills and attitudes thatmake forbetter Scots and a better Scotland. The dividend is paid inbetter outcomes for health, obesity, addiction, petty crime,violence and life expectancy, bringing Scotland into line, forthe first time in a century, with European averages. In thetertiary sector, meanwhile, the early-century obsession withboosting the undergraduate count has given way tomoresophisticated techniques tomatch skills provision with skillsneeds, and the archaic divide between ‘academic’ and‘vocational’ qualifications has all but disappeared, thoughsome private schools continue to trade on the promiseof a purely ‘academic’ focus.

Other positive aspects of Scotland’s industrial and socialinheritance also find benign echoes in these 2030s. Ourtradition of inventivenesshas been steered away from fields,like consumer electronics, where competition with low-wageemerging economies was unsustainable, and applied withgrowing confidence to sustainably exploiting the naturalScottish advantages of high winds and rainfall, powerfulwaves and tides, extensive reserves of low-calorific but ‘clean’coal, a variable climate and a diverse terrain. This geographyhas already helped Scotland to compete successfully in the“new” energy technologies of wind andwave, tidal, clean coaland hydro. No less importantly, as oil and gas employmentdeclined in the early years of the century, a concerted effortwasmade to transfer skills developed there to the closelycomparable growth area of offshore wind generation – amuchmore economic approach thanwaiting to recruit andtrain workers for the new industries from scratch. Plans toinvest over the coming decade in a grid infrastructure toimprove distribution and facilitate exports south of the borderof Scotland’s surplus rainfall holds similar promise, andsome believe that Scotland could ultimately develop alucrative and sustainable supply business in a worldincreasingly short of cleanwater.

Finally, Scotland’s proud tradition of internationalism,thought by some to have withered badly around the turn ofthe century, has found new relevance in creating the socialconditions to attract and retain an inflow of skilledimmigrants whose talents can enrich all of Scotland.In contrast to previous inflows, the high value that skilledincomers are recognised to add to the Scottish economyreduces the likelihood of victimisation by the indigenouspopulation, even if economic and employment conditionsbegin to tighten. Another advantage lies in the fact that thosecoming to Scotland are predominantly young, and looking inmany cases to work here long enough to acquire theeducation and savings that will buy them a settled future backin their countries of origin. Meanwhile, their presence – andtax-paying – in Scotland helps offset a growing demographicimbalance between earners and dependants.


To these deliverances of culture, historyand geography, Scotland has addedsomemore conscious public policypropellants:

> using its fiscal autonomy to create aSovereignWealth Fund and therebyunderpin long-term strategicinvestment, demonstrating clearreturns from technologicalinvestment, and building confidencein Scotland’s ability to put occasionalunilateral variations in taxation levelsto prudent use

> a Climate ChangeAct, backed upwith a string of pace-setting statuteson recycling, energy saving andvehicle emissions, has earnedScotland an international reputationfor setting ambitious targets,specifying deadlines for theirattainment, andmainstreaming themeasures needed to achieve them

> a conscious drive to parlay Scotland’sexperience in sustainable technologiesinto a dynamic role as an internationalbroker for unilateral, bilateral andmultilateral climate change initiativesand partnerships following failure ofthe Rio/Kyoto/Copenhagenworldsummit process

> building on the creation, at the endof the 20th century, of one of theworld’smostmodern legislatures,and drawing on its strengths ininteractive software design, Scotlandhas pioneered new technology-drivenways to rebuild public engagementand confidence in democracy andempower active communities

The Scotland of 2030, while necessarilyfalling short of the nation’s highestaspirations, is a virtuous synthesis ofinherited characteristics and consciouspolicy choices, and exists on amoreevenly competitive footing with othersmall, modernised nations than seemedpossible a generation ago.


Scotland 2030 I Scenario 2 I Opportunities Taken I Page 39

Scotland in 2030Sustainabilitymay be something of a quaint term for us now inthe fourth decade of this century, but the confluence of thinkingthat it brought about in the century’s early years, and the broadpolitical consensus behind acting decisively upon that thinking,has donemuch to shape the Scotlandwe know today.

Prior to that, sustainability hadmeant different things indifferent contexts: neutral impact to the environmentalists;steady growth to the economists; institutional stability to theconstitutionalists. The recognition that these objectives werenot only compatible but complementary, and the cross-partywork of the Parliament’s Standing Sustainability Committeein connecting up the respective agendas, affected quiteprofoundly the Scotland that this generation inhabits.


COMMUNITYOWNEDRENEWABLEENERGY GENERATION

GRIDDISTRIBUTION

One of themajor connections is localisation. It is only a slight exaggeration to say thatlocalisation has found us our place in the world. Forced by the rise of low-wage economiesin Asia and South America to recognise that there weremany sectors in which we couldnever again be internationally competitive, and facedwith a rising imports bill, Scotlandinstead focused on local production for local consumption, a virtue under all three of theabove ‘sustainabilities’. The “push” factor was early legislation to require that all foodpackaging carried a food-miles calculation, backed up by a threat to impose some form offood-mile surcharging. More, important, however were the “pull” factors. By gearing publicpolicy, investment and incentives towards this new type of enterprise, we found to oursurprise that it started to become a useful source of earned revenues for Scotland, as landpreviously zoned for commercial or industrial development that was slow tomaterialise,found a viable alternative in conversion back to local food production. Local financialinstitutions have been encouraged by sympathetic legislation to develop, building onprinciples of the credit union and the co-operative that are intuitively familiar tomany Scots.


This in turn led to a realisation that landuse planning ingeneral needed to become amuchmore proactive policyinstrument, rather than amere response to the currentsof themarketplace. This recognition has been a key factorin helping Scotland rise to the challenges of increasedself-sufficiency, but it has also proved controversial.Some critics see increased interventionary powers as anunacceptable intrusion on fundamental property rights.In rural areas, interestingly, this has been less of aproblem, with community ownership – developed from theturn-of-the-century buyoutsmodel – now the norm, andcommunal initiatives therefore familiar. In the towns andcities, however, the rights of the individual owner and theimpact of community policies on property values haveprovedmore contentious. Planning disputes over theimpact on individual property values of community projects,such as recycling plants or biomass generators, remain asource of division and anger.


Localisation was a controversial strategy in its early years, and to some extentremains so. There were those who argued in favour of a yetmore atomised economy,in which communities were encouraged to generate the energy, purify thewater,and grow the food solely for their own needs, rather than to scale up their aggregateenterprise to classic industrial levels. But a fear prevailed that this would lead togreat inequalities between communities, and thereby exacerbate social tensions, aswell as leaving Scotland to lag behind competitors who had committed to buildingeconomies of scale. Instead, emphasis has beenmaintained on seeking to define aclear division between local and national infrastructure, with communities deliveringthe former and central initiatives the latter, based on a recognition that only nationalstrategies, and large-scale investment, can produce infrastructure of a scale andquality to turn local self-sufficiency into commercial national surplus. It is not alwayssuccessful. Completion of theNationalRail Trunk, the nationally-owned high-speedlink to networks south of the border, failed to stimulate the hoped-for follow-up ofbranch lines built or upgraded by collaborative partnerships of the communities theywould serve. Efforts are underway to assemble a less fractious local/nationalpartnership to upgrade telecommunications networks.


Indeed, the community has become an important deliverymechanism formuch of whatused to be delivered by either central or local government, but with the essential additionof inclusive community decision-making structures to agree priorities and drive policy.The traditional distinction between the public and third sectors in service delivery hasincreasingly blurred. It is important to note the important contributionmade to communityservices by two factors. First, technology: Scotland used its expertise in interactive softwaredesign to create new systems for gathering and synthesising opinion and turning acommunity’s distilled wisdom, imagination and perception into coherent policy strategies.This inclusiveness, in turn, swept away the last vestiges of discrimination against certaingroups in society –most notably,women, the young, the elderly and thepoor – in decision-making, and the results are generally recognised to have broadened the range of valuesembedded in public policy, to great community advantage.


The Sustainable Infrastructure programmehasprovided an alternative, andmore encouragingmodel, providing seedcorn investment to facilitateconstruction of sophisticated networks to exportlocal surpluses of food, water and of renewably-generated electricity. A similar approach,channelling resources into renewablesR&D– notably offshore generating systems – hasearned Scotland an equivalent reputation in theseemerging technologies to that achieved by theScandinavian countries in the early wind generationtechnologies of the 20th century. It has also broughta resurgence in the engineering skills whichweretraditionally such a source of Scottish prestigeand pride. Building on early initiatives like theEuropean Centre forMarine Energy in Orkney,Scotland has become something of amagnet forexpertise and investment in these technologiesand, while it is too important a field ever to haveto ourselves, inherent advantages of climate,geography and embedded skills lend a competitive

edge. Hence the location here of several world-leading research institutions – enhanced byinternational expertise – and of a small but growingstock of globalised companies. The innovation nowsurrounding thewater grid projectmay deliversimilar benefits

A portion of revenues from the newgrowth sectors,especially renewables, has been gathered into aSovereignWealthFund. For themost part, theFund has followed neither theNorwegianmodelof saving against future contingencies nor theShetland one of spreading social benefit. Mostly, ithas been ploughed back into pump-priming furtherstrategic investment in these growth sectors.The prosperity of these industries, which areactive inmany parts of Scotland, has supportedcommunities in funding, developing and deliveringlocal services.

Crucially, too, the word “community” has enjoyed a growingflexibility of definition, extending inmany cases to includeand formally recognise communities of interest – providedbase standards of inclusiveness, common purpose,transparency and representation aremet. Gradually, thesecommunities of interest are using IT to forge linkages withparallel groups in other countries, opening up an excitingpossibility of new channels for international co-operationand partnerships, modelled on the social networkingsystems of the early internet years. In Scotland,empowering and supporting communities to develop thesolutions best suited to their own circumstances is widelycredited with having raised standards across the board ofpolicy – from health and education to housing and localeconomic development. It has alsomade for amuchmoreefficient use of public resources, with group purchasing bycommunities in the forms and quantities precisely suited totheir needs replacing the old wastefulness of centralisedprocurement.

It took leadership as well as smart consultative techniquesto find the common ground in Scottish opinion andmeldit into coherent, sustainable strategies for developingthe country’s inherent strengths and addressing itsweaknesses. Oncemore, the inclusiveness of thecommunity engagementmodel was essential in ensuringthat no groupwas left feeling alienated from contributingto civic debate. The advantage of having an accessibleParliament intent on developing ever-better channelsfor community and civic participationmust not beunderestimated. While partisan and territorialdisagreements will always be part of the political process,the delineation and promotion of broad common goals forScotland has finally proven the truth of the old analogyabout a small country being like a big ship – it takes awhile to change its course but, once you do, everyonefaces in the same direction.

The community empowermentmodel has nevertheless hadsome drawbacks. There is a continued tension, neveradequately resolved, between theminimum commonstandards (eg, of transparency and participation) and thedynamics of diversity. Satisfactorymethods are yet to befound to ensure amore equal distribution of wellbeing bothwithin and between communities without impedingcreativity. Empowerment inevitably fosters rivalry andcompetitiveness, which can bring wasteful duplicationand a reluctance to form the alliances necessary to achieveeconomies of scale and deliver the broad strategic aims towhich everyone is signed up. There is still a tendency forcommunities with a high preponderance of younger andmore educatedmembers to outpace their rivals.

Nor can it be pretended that the underclass of disengaged,disaffected, disadvantaged, unhealthy, unskilled and oftenendemically anti-social individuals has yet completelydisappeared. In a democracy, nomajority is ever absolute,and if most Scots are broadly content with the policy choicesmade by their communities – andwilling to engage inshaping those choices – a small but resilientminoritycontinue to want no part in it. Sociologists, of course, havelong argued that we cannot define the boundaries ofacceptablemores without there being individuals outsidethese boundaries against whom themajority can coalesce.Certainly, in recent years, many communities havedeveloped innovative and variably successful strategies forrehabilitating their renegades and easing people out of thecycle of poverty and disengagement. But it is slowwork andthe ideal of a Scotlandwithout need for law enforcement orpenal sanctions remains a longway distant.


Increasingly, communities have become adept at attractingandwelcoming skilled immigrants to theirmidst to bolstertheir strengths and address shortfalls in their skillsets,though such individuals are still most readily attracted toleading-edge industries and therefore to themore fortunatecommunities in which these are located. In short, thepolicing/regulation of communities on behalf of theParliament remains a necessary, if often resented, corollaryof empowerment, and both functions need to develop intandem. Prosperity in a community does nothing to diminishits fear of crime or of unfair competition – quite the reverse.Relative disadvantage between one community and another,whether real or imagined, remains a potent source of envy,suspicion and occasional hostility. The Parliament,having justly focused on creating positive incentives forcommunities to work towards agreed common strategicgoals, may need to find somemore proactive ways to shareadvantage andwellbeing. As yet, the new Scotland has yetto overcome the old paradox that freedomdemandsstrict rules.

Still at a fairly early stage too is the idea of the individualbusiness enterprise as a community. Many still believethat only the traditional commandmodel of workplaceorganisation, with top-downmanagerial decision-making,can deliver the necessary competitive dynamism. This viewis particularly strongly held among businesses that seekto compete internationally. Yet a growing proportion ofScottish GDP is now generated by community-levelenterprises – and social enterprises – with diverseownershipmodels, and inevitablymany of these reflectthemore collegiate and participatory structures of thecommunities fromwhich they spring. Interestingly, it is inthese sorts of businesses that femalemanagerial talentismost concentrated, whichmay well help accountfor their readiness to challenge traditional corporatestructures. They have revived the turn-of-the-centuryconcept of the stakeholder (shareholders, but alsoemployees, suppliers, funders, neighbours etc),

and sought to involve the whole of this constituency indriving the business. This, in turn, has brought about asurely welcomewidening in the conventional definition ofefficiency, far beyond its turn-of-the-century decay intomeaning nothingmore than cheapness.

Still, the old and the newmodels of enterprise continue tovie with one another for the confidence of investors and themarketplace. Government has shown no enthusiasm fortrying to enforce onemodel over another, and it may be thatonly long-term resilience across a complete economic cyclecan see any true consensus emerge. It is perhaps possibleto see competing Scottish traditions – communitarian andentrepreneurial – on opposing sides of this argument,though examples can be found to show that theseprinciples need not bemutually exclusive.

Another point of serious issue for some is that strategicinvestment at community/national level has been achievedat a cost of foregoing the tax-cutting agenda that has beensome other countries’ chosen route to competitiveness:and, in some cases, of raising new hypothecated taxes. It ishard to see how Scotland could have achieved the beneficialchanges as rapidly as it has without such action, even giventhe support of the SovereignWealth Fund. Revenuespending has not generally been lavish, and resources havebeen concentrated instead on public investment. Defendersof this approach can point out cogently that businesses,especially new businesses, have been among the principalbeneficiaries. Nevertheless, it remains a provocative and,for some, salutary truth that some business activities, andsome talented individuals, have been lost to Scotlandbecause of the lure of low-tax regimes elsewhere.A relatively high level of personal taxation is also blamed bysome for a disappointing outcome to efforts to lure talentedmembers of the Scottish diaspora back home to settle.For some Scots, ‘value’ clearly remains amostlymonetaryconcept.


Here is the newsHis seatbackmediascreen on thatmorning’s electrotram carried pictures of October’sNew Scot of theMonth award-winner, a nano-energy professor fromMalawi. Glancing atthe familiar figure of the CEO three seats up the compartment, he saw her take a digipadfrom her pocket and tap in the name. Ahwell, he thought, there goes next quarter’sresearch budget. Still, it was hard to feel put out by this, since the company’s success, fromwhich all its risk-sharers would benefit, depended on its ability to outpace its rivals in therace to buy up and commercialise the torrent of innovation fromScottish universities andtechnologymalls. The CEOwas very good at this, which waswhy she kept topping thestakeholders’ ballot for her job. Besides, his own role in assembling the evidence sets ofsocial and environmental gain to persuade the Scottish Innovation Bank to underwritethese investments was both acknowledged by the CEO and recognised in his annual bonusof equity in the spin-off ventures that ensued. This in turn helped supplement his Citizen-pluspensions package, and boosted his Citizenship Rating to a healthy 8.2, which would do himno harm at all if he decided to stand again for a seat on the community legislature…

the milestone opportunities…> Using fiscal devolution to set up a SovereignWealth Fund,providing national infrastructure tomake communitydevelopment viable

> Turning post-credit crunch disaffection into new capitalpartnerships

> Investing in pre-school education as a key to solvingmanyendemic educational, health and social problems

> Using expertise in interactive software to power bettersystems of governance and participatory decision-making

> Exploiting Scotland’s natural resource advantages tobecome aworld-leader in anti-climate change technologies


Wha’s like us?There is a certain poignancy in the thought that, having spent the last third of last centurydebating whether it should have an international role as of right, Scotland should find itselfin the first third of the present century fulfilling such a rolemore or less onmerit.

In an agewhere effective global treaties and international laws have proved difficult toachieve or implement, a diplomatic culture has instead grown up of bilateral alliances, jointdeclarations of commitment, technology transfer partnerships and agreements to sharebest practice, especially in the field of climate change and sustainable development.

Scotland’s success in building its own strategies for localised food and renewable energyproduction; its attraction of world-class innovators to facilitate these strategies; and its useof the resulting revenues to nurture community empowerment has translated into arecognised niche of global expertise. An early breakthrough camewith Germany’s adoptionof the Holyrood Parliament’s petitions software.

This, in turn, has brought two gains: first, a growing trade in processes, products and patents;second, the role of broker, andwhere necessarymediator, in forging the sort of internationalalliances and partnerships that have become increasingly common.

In past ages, none of this would have counted for verymuch. International prestige wasmeasured bymilitary and economic power, and it was the bodies that bargained in thosecurrencies that carried the clout. In the age now upon us, a reputation for bringing newthinking to bear onmajor global challenges seems just as bankable.


sovereignwealthfund


Capital ideasThe banking crisis of the early century was economically traumatic at thetime, but it can now be seen in hindsight to have bequeathed some enduringadvantages. At national level, and prompted by legislation to discourageexcessive short-term risk, institutions have re-established the focus oninvesting in the industrial innovation and production that was a sourceof their original strength, and becomemuchmorewidely accepted as positivecorporate citizens of Scotland.

Their role has been transformed by the Scottish government’s diversionof a portion of the revenues from the new growth sectors into a dedicatedSovereignWealth Fund, investing in public assets and infrastructure, andthereby laying foundations for amore prosperous future. Banks have foundit more financially worthwhile and socially acceptable to invest alongsidethis pump-primer public funding than to indulge in high-risk speculation,particularly sincemaintaining public confidence in this investment helps toguarantee stability of policy and therefore of returns.

Scotland 2030 I Scenario 2 I Opportunities Taken I Page37

But the initial reaction against the banks also led atlocal level to what some called thenewmutualism,a search to replace both casino capitalism andstolid state collectivismwith a diversity of bespokearrangements that draws heavily on historicalprecedents such as the co-operativemovement,friendly societies and credit unions.

The impetus behind this development came fromcommunities. It was driven initially by publicspending constraints and the consequent need todevelop newmethods of delivering local servicesand investing in local amenities and infrastructure.Many took advantage of theknow-how availablefrom former financial services employees laid offbymajor institutions.

While no singlemodel has emerged thatmight beexpanded to national level, the diversity of thesemicro-institutions – reflecting diversity of local need– was in itself a strength in the early years. Morerecentmergers and joint ventures have tended tocomplement functional alliances and partnershipsbetween communities, rather than suggest a returntomoremonolithic or predatory institutions.


Decision time“Goodmorning.”

“Goodmorning.”

“Big day, then, huh?”

“What do youmean, big day?”

“You knowwhat I mean. Noon. The Districte-bulletin. The newDistrict PrioritiesProgramme, for heavens’ sake. Don’t tellme you never filed your household returnon the licensing plebiscite? Or the turbinetender? Or the new college historycurriculum?We sat with the kids roundthe supper table on Saturday over a bottleof Morningsidemead and filled out thefamily input folio together. Brilliant, it was.And I for one can’t wait to see if we’vesettled on South Street for the newcyberhub.”

“Oh. That. Right. Sorry, I thought youmeant the omnibus edition of River City.“


I’m very happy to say that I love my role in a large multinational wave technology companyheadquartered here in Aberdeen, where I grew up. It’s so wonderful to watch my childrenplay in the same parks I did when I was young and have my parents live so nearby. At 35,I am one of the youngest upper level managers in the company.The road to the position I hold now wasn’t easy and it was perhaps a bit unorthodox,given I was a bit of a rebel as a teenager and I didn’t attend University. However,I’ve always loved learning new things and I developed my expertise in the field of alternativeenergy. Following high school, I went to a special advanced training programme to become atechnician on wind turbines. This was a fast-paced and challenging experience, but it reallybuilt my confidence and prepared me for the unique needs of the sector I was about toenter. After completing the programme I was quickly hired at a large wind farm techcompany. Management saw that I took a lot of initiative, was a strong problem-solver,and might make a leader in the company. They put me on a fast track programme to becomea manager, and following a number of years at a mid-level position with my previouscompany, I was approached by my current company with an outstanding position. Thiscompany benefited from one of the grants to invest in new technologies and renewablesources of energy stemming from the government’s scheme to become a leader insustainable energy. Now the company is one of the many success stories of thatprogramme. I travel the world to meet and work with international partners,suppliers and clients.My life is very busy, raising three young children with my husband who also owns his ownbusiness. I don’t think we could do it if not for the great social and governmental supportwe receive. Our children attend a wonderful Montessori school where they’re developing andlearning from a very young age.My employers run an efficient child support programme so between this and help I canrely on from my parents to take the children to some of their activities, I am able tostrike a good work - life balance. This allows me to work flexible hours and take a bitmore time off than my parents were allowed when I was growing up.Looking into the future I’m very excited about the path my career could take. Living here inScotland provides me with many opportunities for advancement especially in my chosen fieldwith renewable technology. If I continue with my current career trajectory, there is noreason why I shouldn’t meet my goal of reaching the boardroom either at my currentcompany or another one.The Forum is extremely grateful for this contribution from theWomen Leaders in ScotlandNetwork.A short paper, prepared by theWomen's Group, critiquing the each scenario is available at page 58.


A Women’s Perspective in 2030Portrait Claire

opportunites uninvited

Scotland 2030 I Scenario 3 I Opportunities Uninvited I


Could our civil society now survivea sudden interruption to itselectronic telecommunications?

Are politicians ever going to bewilling to hand over “power tothe people”, and do the peoplewant it?Would they knowwhatto dowith it?

After decades of rapidlyexpanding commodity choice,how readywould Scots now beto settle for the limitations ofself-sufficiency?

Would the sort of traumaenvisaged in this scenarioproduce a new order, or anew anarchy?

In extremis, would Scotland’smuch-vaunted communitarianinstincts prevail over everymanfor himself?

Whatwould the role of leaders bein a post-traumatic Scotland, andwherewould they come from?

How could/should centralauthoritymitigate inequalitiesbetween empowered communities?

Would empowered communitiesbe open, virtuous and constructivelycompetitive, or armed, tribal andpredatory?

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international contextInternational Context: In scenario 3, internationalmarkets have collapsed as a result of the economic ructionsof the early century and the still unexplained computerhyper-virus, which swiftly spread to every type ofmicroprocessor-driven technology, and bringing transport,commerce, financialmarkets, energy supplies, healthcare,sanitation, communications and, inmany countries,effective government to a sudden and often violent halt.

This resulted in international relations being fragile forseveral years, and in some cases permanently ruptured.Commodity prices across the planet soared, reflecting thedisruption to production and transportation. Communitieswere therefore driven back on their own resources.Scotland, in 2030, is in a period of enforced self-reliance.

Opportunities uninvitedKeyassumptions in 2030> Aworldwide computer hyper-virus in the 20-teenscreatedmassive economic, logistical and socialupheaval across the world, forcing communitiesto survive on their own resources

> Inmany countries, the trauma heighteneddisillusionment with conventional politico-economicstructures, and prompted a search for a newway

> Energy supplies are restored, but prices remain high& demandmuch reduced. International trade haslargely collapsed

> Internet traffic is restored, but used differently

> In Scotland, the community – having survived thepost-trauma isolation – has become the key unitin society.

> Adapted interactive technologies facilitate an effectiveparticipatory democracy, which has largely overtakenrepresentative democracy as the wellspring of publicpolicy. Leadership is bottom-up, with empoweredindividuals driving empowered communities.

> Central government remains, butmostly as an arbiter,enabler, gatekeeper and provider of shared services forScotland’s empowered communities

> Communities strive for self-sufficiency, trading smallsurpluses for goods and commodities of which theyare short.

> Most work is distributed daily according to skillset.Society has becomemore equal, especially in respectof opportunities

> More inclusive processes have replaced traditionalmale-dominated values withmuch broader definitionsof worth andmerit.

> Some continue to opt out of community consensus,but a looser set of socialmores and rules somewhatdiminishes the point of rebellion

> Scotland’s successful communitymodel attractsdiaspora Scots back home, and has won Scotland anew role as an international consultant andmediator

> Community spirit is underpinned by a philosophyof trying tomake helping the commonweal the easy,not just the virtuous, choice for individuals.

> Organised religion is fragmented and sociallyunimportant, but the search for spirituality hasheightened interest in arts, culture and otherleisure pursuits.


The TraumaThis is a post-traumatic Scotland in apost- traumatic world. Its way of life in the 2030sis a sometimes uneasy blend of culturalinheritance and dramatic, enforced adjustment,rather than a product of systematicsocio-economic evolution.

The jarring events of almost two decades ago didnot quite amount to an existentialist moment ofpure re-invention: rather, they afforded anopportunity, and a daunting challenge, forScotland to re-write its old aspirations on a cleansheet of paper.

Similar processes took place across thedevelopedworld. The economic ructions of earlycentury had already depressed publicmorale andreduced confidence in traditional institutions –commercial, cultural, political – even beforethe still unexplained computer hyper-virusstruck, swiftly spreading to every type ofmicroprocessor-driven technology, and bringingtransport, commerce, financialmarkets, energysupplies, healthcare, sanitation, communicationsand, inmany countries, effective government to asudden and often violent halt.

The immediate effect was to isolate communities.Travel was, for a significant period, unavailable tothemajority of people, andwould remain severelyconstrained for some years afterwards. The failureof all manner of electronic control systemswrought widespread environmental damage.Currency exchangewas suspended for a period,andwould remain highly volatile. Internationalrelations, once restored, were fragile forseveral years, and in some cases permanentlyruptured. Commodity prices across the planetsoared, reflecting the disruption to productionand transportation. Communities weretherefore driven back on their own resources.Rebuilding telecommunications took lesstime than some had feared, and yet the longmonths communities spent disconnected fromtheir familiar networks saw online links,once restored, usedmore sparingly and artfullythanwas previously the case.

As tensions eased, communities came to see theenforced self-dependency they had suffered as,in some respects, an exhilarating and liberatingexperience. In countries like Scotland, where anatavistic belief in communitarian approaches was,to some extent, embedded by clan folklore inthe cultural DNA, thismood took the form of adetermined drive to reinvent the institutionswhich were felt largely to have failed to protectcommunities from the trauma they had faced. The1960s noun “establishment” returned to populardiscourse, but invested with a newmalice.

The essence of community assertiveness was tomistrust uniform solutions and uphold diversity. Itwas, paradoxically, tomake space for this diversitythat a consensus gradually formed to reclaimpower from long-standing nationalmonoliths and,by extension, from those whose authority wasvested in them. Thismight have seen communityleadership fall victim to charismatic charlatans orLord of the Flies-type local despots, and a fewcommunities did have uncomfortable interludes.Many also had to contendwith dissidentindividuals, loudly upholding their native right to bethrawn. But the power of the rebuilt internet as anow citizen-drivenmedium for comparing best –andworst – practice, soon saw an informal butcompelling code ofminimumgovernancestandards adopted, and communities (andindividuals) who dragged their feet about applyingit were increasingly shunned by their neighbours.

As those first terrifying days slowly passed,it became clear that the civil disorder which theupheaval had provoked in some parts of the worldwas not going to befall Scotland. Yet neither couldlife resume as before. In a short period of years,Scotlandwas, to quote Yeats, “all changed,changed utterly.” How terrible was the beauty thatwas born of that changemay yet take some yearsmore to be fully apparent.


Apocalypse … almostIt was an opportunity to dream dreams, and then tolook for ways to deliver them. As the threat to survivalsubsided and communities – geographical, social,occupational, spiritual – gradually regained firstinternal and then external communications, it swiftlybecame clear that a potentnewradicalismwas in theair. Historians drew parallels with the five years thatfollowed the ending ofWorldWar Two, but in truth themoodwasmore radical still, in the literal sense ofrethinking “from the roots.” Traditional institutionsalone were not blamed for the trauma Scotland hadsuffered. But their stock with the public had beenrunning low from the years of economicmisery thathad gone before. Now they were seen to have donenothing to prevent ormitigate the trauma, and littleto assist recovery from it. Centralised servicesrequired working communications. Many of thosewere gone, and the horrifying vulnerability ofdepending so heavily upon themwasmanifest.

As experiences began to be shared, it became clearthat, while circumstances varied from community tocommunity, many of the ideas andmethods that hadbeen improvised in the darkest days hadmuchin common, and they came to form a loose butpurposefulmatrix of principles uponwhich a newScotlandwould be conceived and constructed. Asthese buzzed back and forth through a restoredcyberspace, a broad credo began to take shape.Its key elements were:

> That communities needed to source the staplesof life – food, energy, shelter – on a safe, reliableand sustainable basis, aiming wherever possiblefor self-sufficiency and rejecting the wastefulnessof old-fashioned consumerism

> That traditional structures of governance hadproved fallible, and that future strength lay indiversity and self-sufficiency, not centralisedauthority

> That representative democracy needed to betempered by active participation in decision-making, for whichmodern telecommunicationsprovided ameans

> That near-autonomous, inclusive, self-sufficientcommunities needed new social structures,providing greater equality, especially of opportunity

> That financial systems needed to be of a scaleand a flexibility to facilitate the aspirations, butsoothe the fears, of diverse communities

> That developmentmust, at least for a time,be driven by community need rather thanpotential commercial viability

> That communities should be open to a freeinterchange of people, information, ideasand talents

> That national intervention should existmainlyto correct failures in community empowerment –eg, resolve disputes, conduct relations with otherjurisdictions, and oversee enabling structures forcommunity decision-making.

Nowreadon…


Scotland in 2030Scotland’s communitiesmeet together periodically in physical terms –as theNational Representative Parliament – and constantly in virtual termsto discuss and resolvematters of common interest or policy. Parliamentoversees the framework of enabling powers, delegated authority andcommon services to which registered Scottish communities adhere.

Unregistered communities, though now few in number, form an underclassthat accepts neither the responsibility nor the protection of the registeredcommunity networks. Although their behaviour is often caricatured incommunitymedia as anarchic and threatening, these groupings usuallyoperate to internal disciplines not dissimilar to those which the registeredcommunities have evolved for themselves, and enjoymany of the sameloyalties from theirmembers. After all, the looser a set of socialmores, theless point there is in deliberately standing outside of it, or in despising thosewho do. Some unease persists, and some communities guard what they seeas their special characteristics jealously. But this attitude is growing lesscommon as communications grow easier. Most communities offer generoussupport schemes andmentoring for those individuals who come – fromwherever – to join them, and an inflow of newmembers with new attributesto contribute is generally prized as ameasure of a community’s success.


Success at what? Atmatching provision to the needs, wishes andambitions of itsmembers. Thismeasure, rather than themonetaryvalue of commerce and property, has become the key indicator ofa prospering community, and is sometimes ranked by irresponsiblecommentators into league tables that are everywhere deploredand everywhere studied. Among the factors in the calculus is theachievement of each community in personalising the services itprovides, in defining clear community values and delivering againstthem, in reflecting the concerns of ever smaller groups of its citizensin common policy and, perhapsmost crucially, in forming collaborativepartnerships with other communities to advance commonly-heldambitions.


Encouraging andmultiplying such partnerships is akey responsibility of the parliament, and under itsauspices the communities have developed someimportant collaborative structures, notably theGSB (Great Scotland Bank), GST (Great ScotlandTrust) and GSF (Great Scotland Fund), which existchiefly to create infrastructures – physical, virtualand procedural – for facilitating joint initiativesbetween communities. These initiatives range fromthe bilateral to the unanimous.


These days, there is little dissention overmajor issues of high principle. Constant consultationbetween communities, powered by the electronic communicators that all citizens now carry, leaveslittle doubt of the general direction of public opinion, or the broad consensus behind the criteria onwhich the new Scotland is built. Communities, theirmembers, and their representatives are, ofcourse, free to disagree, and there is a general acceptance that community leaders of whatever typeshould seek sometimes to persuade as well as to comply. Yet those that stray too far from thecalibrated wishes of the citizenry are likely to lose authority. Leadership is seen as a two-way flowof ideas. In truth,most debate by now is aboutmeans, not ends, especially since the qualifiedextension of the electronic franchise to the Scottish diaspora.

Much of the interaction between communities is, in any event, about sharing rather than deciding.There are “community storytelling” channels, on which communities deliver presentations of ideas,initiatives or experiences fromwhich they think other communitiesmight benefit. It was from justsuch a forum that the idea of the Community Stock Exchange, nowwidely adopted across Scotlandas ameans of growing community resources, first emerged.

There is a Virtual ServicesBazaarwhich enables communities to trade surplus services capacity,or to exchange surplus assets; and a Community Investment Exchange, which providescommunities with investment opportunities in each other’s initiatives. Both have built on thetechnological links pioneered by the Communities EnergyRing, which enables communitiestomanage short-term surpluses or shortages from their renewable generating activities.


By suchmeans is the individual strength and creativityof empowered communities harnessed to commonbenefit. Some of themilestone developments include:

> TheDisaggregation of ProcurementAct, freeinglocal services like schools, hospitals, social workor business support agencies from the tyranny ofcentral ordering, so as tomeet specific communityneeds in sustainable quantities, while at the sametime opening purchasing up to local smallsuppliers.

> The ScottishScienceAcademy, which bringsthe finest expertise from the communities togetherwith that of overseas specialists in a virtualacademy to conduct both generic and product-specific research, primarily in Scotland’s sectors ofexcellence, such asmarine renewable generationand sustainable food production. The SSA alsoleads the globalmarketing of this expertise, andmanages the repatriation of the proceeds tocommunities

> The Fair TradeMultiplier, which gives advantage,where goods do have to be imported, to ethically-produced products fromdeveloping nations,without undermining the “buy local” fiscalincentives operated bymost communities.

> HighSpeedTwo, the upgrade of Scotland’shyper-rail linkwith London and continental Europe,achieved by collaborative agreement amongcommunities, and increasingly served by branchlines delivered by partnerships of the communitiesthey serve.

This last example illustrates a growing trend for fewerinitiatives to be driven solely or even predominantlyat national level. Quitemajor projects are nowmoreoften conceived at community level, and thendeveloped and delivered through bilateral,multilateral, or inter-regional agreements,always structured in such away as to provide fairopportunities for community businesses andco-operatives. Group purchasing achievesmanyof the economies of scale previously deliveredthrough centralised procurement, but without thewaste of redundant or unwanted provision.


It is away of life that has proved attractive to peoplefrommany countries, and has been extensivelyemulated. This is turn has helped Scotland developa reputation as a place of congenial, educationallyadvanced, pleasant, safe, clean, and securecommunities inwhich to locate businesses, includingsomewhosemain business focus lies outwith Scotland.A particular asset has been the high level ofparticipation and inclusiveness achieved in Scottishcommunities. This has ensured that the talents of all,and the values of all, contribute fully to the successof the business.

After some initial resistance from community purists,this international reputation is increasingly exploitedthrough all-Scotlandmarketing campaigns. TheParliament’s role as a representative body for Scotlandas awhole has gradually grown, and its core functionas a broker of inter-community partnerships nowoperates increasingly at international level.

This role in turn has cautiously developed into a licenceto promote ideas that command overwhelmingcommunity endorsement as “Scottish policy”.Most significantly, Scotland takes pride in havingbecome a leading activist on theworld stage inpressing formore effective global action on issueslike climate change, inequality, human rights,

freedomofmovement and fair trade. It has gained goodwill by lending out its scientists and engineers to helpwith repairs and restoration in countries that sufferedgreater environmental damage than Scotland did atthe time of the great disruption.

To some extent, this area of activity has offset oneof themajor difficulties encountered by the newScotland: the conflict of loyalties betweencommunity and nation. In the early years especially,competitiveness between communitieswas not alwayseither constructive or congenial. The Parliament actedin part as a police force, in part as a court of appeal,moderating relations between fractious communities,and not always achieving universal popularity fromthe outcomes. It retains that formal constitutional role,but has needed to use it less and less. As time haspassed, communities have come to see that they canachieve their own goalsmore effectively bymakingcommon causewith like-minded neighbours than byone-upmanship, and the parliament’s role in helpingthem to do so has improved its popular standing.Even so, it is still occasionally turned to by theaggrieved to intervenewhere one community is seento have gained an advantage over another.


Perhaps themost deep-rooted complaint against theNewScotland is that it has stifled individual ambitionand enterprise. It is certainly true that virtue is nowmore readily defined by one’s contribution to innovationandwellbeingwithin the community than by personalproperty orwealth Yet, encouraging the individualentrepreneur is a common priority across Scotland’scommunities, because communities are structured toensure that effects of entrepreneurial success – be itsocial entrepreneurship or themore traditionalcommercial kind – bring benefit to communitystakeholders aswell as to the individual. True,Scotland rarely grows businesses of global standing.But in aworldwhere global trade has necessarilydiminished, neither domost countries. Some say,justly, that this is unfair on countrieswith long historiesof endemic economic disadvantage, andwhichmustnow fall back on scant local resources rather than seekto trade their way to prosperity. The advent of a lessprofit-drivenworld has certainly produced greatervolumes of aid to such countries, aswell as practicalhelpwith overcoming their perennial disadvantages.But it is not yet enough and, history teaches,maynever be so.

The Parliament also provides a point of contact for theScottish diaspora, ensuring they continue to feel a fullyengaged part of the virtual Scottish community, andhelping to structure and support the valuable advocacywork they do in voluntarily promoting Scottish valuesand interests around the planet. Some of the biggercommunities, of course, run their own highlysuccessful diaspora associations, but the Parliamentis an invaluable sorting house for people around theworldwhowant to join, return to ormerely interactwith Scottish communities. A perennial debate takesplace overwhether there is greater gain for Scotland inhaving its exiles spread its reputation around theworld,or enticing them to bring their talents back home.


All the same, it is the community that setsScotland’s pace, for example by:

> Identifying technological needs throughonline information exchanges and forums,often prompting subsequent researchcollaborations

> Promoting collective responsibility for thewell-being of all communitymembers.It has producedmany innovative carepackages tailored initially to individualneeds, but often later tradedwith othercommunities

> Ensuring that no one group – be it gender,class, generation, faith or race – withinthe community becomes either dominantor excluded in respect of the community’svalues and ambitions

> Developing the social economy, based onlocal regulatory and fiscal regimes thatfavour enterprises of social, not justmonetary, value to the community.

> Redefining the concept of price beyond thecrude formula of production costs plusprofit margin, so as to embed, and enforcethrough the fiscal and regulatory regimes,deeper community values.

This is a Scotland not of competing commercialoligarchies, but of collaborative individuals,each serving his or her own interests butencouraged, through active participation indecision-making, to identify such interestswith those of the community; and eachwith anactive stake inmaking a contribution to thatcommunity. The old Scottish motto of “Nemome impune lacessit” has given way to the moremodern, yet still proud, “By our choices shallyou know us.”


A Life in the DayAs usual, when the weather was fine, his day beganwitha stroll around his landyard. Not a badmorning’s tally:a couple of pounds of parsnips ready, a dozen goodtomatoes and a couple of punnets of raspberries. By thetime hewas back at the house, he had registered theproduce on Communimart andwas now using his digipadto see whether the community bookstore had yet takenpossession of Sir Ian Rankin’s Rebus – the Zimmer Years.Sold out, but a quick search showed Loch Tay to have asurplus copy, and he promptly stuck the download on hiscredit chip, noticing he’d already been credited for theparsnips.

Normally, he would have returned to the house to logon his skillset for the day’s work, but today hewas bookedto sit on a citizens’ tribunal to discuss the town’scontribution to the new electrorail branch line. It was, hesometimes felt, crazy that some older citizens still insistedon tribunals actuallymeeting in a physical venue. Still, thesunshine lent the rare prospect of travel a quiet frisson ofguilty pleasure, which he forgave himself by observing thathis solar generator was humming busily. Might even be aspot of surplus there by sundown to sell into storage, hethought.

He registered his journey to the tribunal forum via thedigipad, and almost immediately had confirmation that oneof the little town electrobuses would pick him up in 20minutes and drop him off alongwith other passengers whohad registered to travel to that part of town. He poureda glass of apple juice, noticing with a cluck of disapprovalthat the imported pineapple juice which his profligate

partner had bought needed to be used up and recycledwithin two days to avoid a further fiscal tariff. If they finishedthe juice this evening, he could get the carton in the streetrecycle plant tonight – in time both to avoid the tariff andknock amodest Communireward credit off his weeklyleisure subscription. No doubt herself was hoping to usethe credit for her film club, but that was just tough.

Hismind turned to the work hewasmissing. Of course, hewould be credited for the day spent on the tribunal, but evenso it was frustrating. His attempts the previous day tosource a supply of timeswitches for the new communitylighting system had not been successful, and hewonderedwhowould draw that job today, now that he was forced todrop his option for a second day. It would have to be a gooddeal – the long run of decent weather had knocked lumpsout of the town’s normally reliable water surplus sales.

The electrobus arrived, and he climbed aboard, running hisdigipad through the reader andwatching as his destinationlit up on themap above the driver’s seat. Third off, he bethimself, glancing round slyly at the seven passengersfilling the other seats. He accessed thatmorning’smediascan andwas about to read of the new data exchangeagreement with Dundee, when he noticed an advert on theCommuniscreen in the door panel beside his seat. It wasadvertising a concert that evening as part of the GoldenJubilee 50 Communities Tour by The Proclaimers. D’youknow, hemused to himself, recyclingmight just have towait…


Today’s Scots find it hard to understandwhythe issue of the extent to which the state shouldintervene in the lives of individuals so dividedpolitical debate formore than 150 years.Today, we share an orthodoxy, if not yet a uniformfaith, that the function of public policy is to fostera society whose participants choose to behavevirtuously: to create and enhance benign choices,not (as was traditional) to punish selfish ones.

This approach is sometimes characterised asmaking the common good the easiest option,rather than the philanthropic one. It does notdenymalign choices to individuals, nor coercethem out ofmaking such choices. It aims insteadto ensure that the choices which best benefit thecommunity are the choices that aremostattractive tomake.

Structural change has helped. Themonolithicnation state of the 19th and 20th centuries haslargely disappeared. In today’s Scotland, the

community is the aggregate of individual values,and the state the aggregate of community values.

Value has replaced price as the currency in whichideas are traded. Socialisation of commoditieshas replaced the commodification of society.Technology exists to serve needs, not to createmarkets.

Amore primitive agewould have called thisaltruism. Some todaymight say that it reflectsthe vastly increased influence of femaleperceptions onwhat was once a society poweredby testosterone: others that it ismerely acommon sense response to the communaldangers that we so recently faced together.

Thus is the freedom of individual choicereconciled with the common good: the classicfaultline in political dialectic ever sinceMillandMarx.

Or so the romantics would tell you ...

Best instinctsScotland 2030 I Scenario 3 I Opportunities Uninvited I

Nowhere in 2030s Scotland is the generationgapmore evident than in the restaurant.Dip in to any teenagewebmag and you’ll findscreenfuls of anecdotes about embarrassingparental behaviour at the dining table.

Today’s youngsters find it grotesquewhenparents confess that they used to orderfoodstuffs with no thought to either season orsource – or, worse, that they once regarded amenu price that reflected the high cost ofbringing exotic food or drink to the table as abadge of chic, a way of celebrating a specialoccasion.

Such behaviour is rightly regarded by theyoung as deplorably vulgar.

The change is best encapsulated in thepopular webcomic character AntedeluvianAuntie, who amuses readers week after weekwith archaic social faux pas, such as orderingswordfish steaks, foie gras, or strawberriesin December.

Still harder for the young to understand is apricing system that oncemade bananascheaper in January than raspberries inSeptember, chorizo cheaper than lornsausage, and Chileanwine cheaper thanScotch whisky.

In fairness, what they often fail to take intoaccount is the wider range of produce whichcan now be sourced locally, thanks totechnological advances and climate change.Their parents simply couldn’t have tastedmelons or grapes without imports.

These days, of course, the foodmile andrecycling taxesmake the price of eatingimported foodmuch higher, but it is the socialstigma rather than themonetary penalty thatis the real deterrent.

All themore reason to laugh at AntedeluvianAuntie when her family catch her hiding anold Keith Floyd recipe inside her copy ofMawBroon’s Cookbook.

Kail, anyone?


Growing up I was always fascinated by my father’s business. I lovedhelping in any way I could and learned a lot in that tiny pub on theoutskirts of Glasgow. These experiences laid the seeds for meto create my now thriving restaurant chain. We have seven locationsacross Scotland and I enjoy the busy schedule that comes with runningany business, but particularly restaurants. I run these restaurants alongwith my husband, who deals with the culinary side of the businesswhilst I focus on the administrative and customer service side.We enjoy working together and find it has created a strong familyenvironment, with our employees acting as part of our extended family.We have two small girls and they enjoy playing football and excel atscience. We are encouraging them to go on to University as neither myhusband nor I did. Although we’re doing well, we see the value in theirgetting a degree, especially in science and technology – events in recentyears have demonstrated how important it is for girls to work alongsideboys in high risk sectors.Things were tough the first few years after the meltdown. At the timewe had one tiny restaurant in the centre of Edinburgh. We were constantlyin fear of losing the business and worked long hours finding ways to cutcosts and market our business more effectively. We lost customers,many suppliers went bankrupt and the banks were closing in. The familyhad to rally round and work long hours to keep the business afloat.Fortunately, the crisis subsided and we revamped our business model tobe more in tune with the direction things were going, with a greener, moreresponsible Scotland developing. We tried to create a business whichwould appeal to the new mindset of Scots, and we were finally able tofulfil the dreams I had for the business from the start.Moving forward I hope to expand outside of Scotland, opening newrestaurants in Newcastle and Manchester in the next two years but Iknow how hard we would need to work to achieve this.

The Forum is extremely grateful for this contribution from theWomen Leaders in ScotlandNetwork.A short paper, prepared by theWomen's Group, critiquing the each scenario is available at page 58.


A Women’s Perspective in 2030Portrait Fiona

ForewordAs a group of women leaders in business, charities,boardrooms, and the public sector, we are commentingon the “Sustainable Communities in Scotland”scenarios. Since these scenarios were constructed inan attempt to inform political and civic opinion onimportant issues, it is imperative that the entirepopulation engagewith this future planning project.Therefore, we explain our broad thinking on theperspective of women in society and subsequentlycomment on each scenario, providing a narrativeexample of the relationship between the scenario andthe lives of women in Scotland. Our views are based onour collective knowledge and experiences, and onin-depth research to fill in gaps in the knowledge base.In addition, we cite specific examples to illustrate thepoints discussed.

PerspectiveWhen considering these scenarios created to exploresustainable communities in Scotland, we are not simplyreferring to environmental or economic sustainabilitybut also sustainability of public sector service delivery,programmingmodels, and behaviourmodels in society.

Women participate in society on a number of levels,and their roles are constantly evolving and changing.Traditionally, women have been leaders in communityorganisations and participated in care-giving roles insociety. However, as wewill discuss inmore depthlater, women’s roles in society have changed, andperhaps have changedmore in the past two decadesthanmany recognise.

Traditionally in political discussions, jobs andthe economy, law and order and terrorism arelabelled ‘high road’matters while health, care forthe ageing, education and childcare have beenlabelled as ‘low road’ politics. While there has been asignificant increase over the last several decades invalue placed on the latter, it’s not clear all partsof society hold that rebalanced perspective. If wewantto achieve sustainable communities in Scotland, then itis critical that we ensure that political and civic debateplaces even higher value on these areas.

Throughout our discussion concerning the scenarios,a triangulated perspective emerged about the ways inwhich women participate in society and the factors that

affect how they fulfil their potential. These factors –leadership, mindset (eg aspiration), and practicalities –interact to create the situation women in Scotlandexperience today.

LeadershipWomen aremore often represented in lowerleadership positions than in senior roles and are notsufficiently represented in themost influential levelsof public life and commerce, including in boardrooms.Wemust consider why women are often not wellrepresented at leadership levels in these arenas,even though theymay be better represented inprofessional spheres.

Our political, social, business and educationalinstitutions also need to foster women’s aspirations,skills, and expertise so those with potential gain theexperience and have the opportunity to rise to topleadership in any sphere. Thismay require a cognitiveshift in the way people viewwomen leaders. It may alsoinvolve focussed programmes to remove obstacles,such as the need for widespread affordable childcare;formost, childcare will always be the first priority.

Shifting the gender balance of those in senior positionsalters the dynamics and perspectives in debate andpriorities in the boardroom and can lead to differentoutcomes. It has been shown that diverse groupsdeliver better decisions.1

In addition to encouraging women in their careers andproviding them opportunities to develop skills andexperience for senior leadership roles, so too, younggirls should be encouraged to pursue careers in fieldstraditionally dominated bymen. Studies have foundthat primary school girls often outperform theirmaleclassmates inmaths and sciences. But, theymoveinto other areas of study as they progress throughsecondary school, college and university 2. It is ourfirm belief that “girls doing science” should become‘normal’ providingmore balance in thesemaledominated fields.

In the private, public, and not-for-profit sectors, womenhave been successful in leadership roles. However,proportionally their participation at that level is low.If women’s attributes were valued fully, by womenthemselves as well as bymen, there would be greaterrepresentation of women in high level leadership roles.

Scenario Response from Scotland’sWomen in Leadership


1 Proposes a theoreticalmodel to help understandwhy diverse groups have better turnover of decisionmaking, however, it shows thismay be amore complex process than is generally accepted.The ‘visibility’ of the diversity characteristic alongwith the ‘job-relatedness’ as perceived by the group of that characteristic influence the amount the diversity impacts the group’s decisions.

2 A review of relevant literature demonstrating girls ability to perform inmathematics, and also examining the factors that keep them frompursuingmaths after the primary years both because of lack of encouragementfromeducators and through a steady decline in personal ambition.

Mindset/AspirationSociety is comprised of 52%women. In ordertomake best use of this human resource, women’scontribution at a senior level should bemaximised.Yet well-educated, dynamic women often do not pursuesenior positions in their careers. Simply by supportingwomen’s development and aspirations, wewouldexpand our productivity. An effective strategy forsustainable communities, then,might be to see thesepeople as a source of untapped potential. Withoutexpectation, there is a poverty of aspiration.

The same argument can bemade perhaps evenmorestrongly regarding those from disadvantagedbackgrounds. A lack of ambition or aspiration affectswomen at all social strata and presumably to thegreatest extent in areas of deprivation, wheremultiplegenerationsmay never have held a job,much lesscultivated a career. Society often views these peopleonly in light of their problems or deprivations.

For those of us looking in, ‘problem’ individuals canbe seen as one-dimensional: we see the problem andnot the person.We often pigeonhole people based ontheir circumstances and treat them accordingly.For instance, is a teenagemother simply a resourcedrain, often going on public assistance? Or does shehave some potential as yet unidentified? A fundamentalchange in the way people view and help her developwhatever her potential might be would againmake us amore productive society.

Regardless of social background, though,many womendisregard or fail to believe in the opportunities open tothem. For reasons not easily identified, they oftenchoose to seize opportunities that take them away fromthe levels of leadership. While we can urge institutionsto support the development of women’s ambitions,womenmust also take responsibility for themselves.

PracticalitiesAlongwith these cultural points, practicalconsiderationsmay also enhance (or restrict) women’scontribution and participation in the national arena.There are responsibilities such as childcare andeldercare which aremost often seen as ‘women’s work’yet they have an impact on society as a whole andshould be seen as a shared responsibility.

Another practical consideration is what we can dowith the funds we have when the public purse isconstrained. Are theremodels in other countries whichspend less per person on programmes and havemoresuccess? Although not a democracy, Singaporeprovides an interestingmodel at least in termsof education, often sending students abroad and thenrequiring that they return to jobs in sectors for whichthe country has placed a priority for development3.In this way Singapore, which lacksmany naturalresources, bar people, sees its population as itsmainresource and they work to develop it.

Overall we need to reconsider the barriers to womenholding senior positions in our society. A broader,more diverse and highly-educated groupwhichaspires to leadership roles would greatly enhancedecision-making. A wider range of views andexperiencemay shift traditional thinking and lead tonew solutions for themany challenges facing Scotlandin the future. If we re-conceive whomakes decisions atthe top level of government and business and howthose decisions aremade, and encouragewomen tostrive for higher positions, while considering thepractical issues that impact women’s lives along theway, everyonewould benefit.


3 Students in Singaporemost often leave their home country to study at overseas universities, however, over the next several yearswemay see the rise of top level institutions in Singapore offering education at home.This is a result of the emphasis on the importance of ‘human capital’ by the government.

Scenario 1Missed Opportunities paints a picture of Scotland inwhich we do not take the opportunities afforded us.The scenario touches on issues such as a disaffectedunderclass, poor health when comparedwith the restof Europe, education, and issues of public spending.However, no significant strides aremade in the publicresponse to this environment.

Moreover, charitable organisations traditionally calledupon to augment government-run programmes arenot thriving either. This situation is verymuch a linearprojection fromwhere we currently are. The net effect isthat nothingmuch has changed; while some thingshave becomeworse, others have improved. urther, wedid not heed the warning signs that would have allowedus to excel in the world’s evolving economy and socialcontract. We slipped behind while other countries wereoutcompeting us in almost every area. Some of thesecountries are close neighbours and also similar in sizeto Scotland. Time and time again the political debateaddressed issues such as education, healthcare, andcreation of new jobs, but agreement could never bereached to a point where real changewas implementedand nowwe find ourselves in an unenviable situation.

Scenario 2Opportunities Taken is amore positive look at the waythings could unfold, with both private investment andpublic support for environmentally sustainable projects.Perhaps the best opportunity to enrich our society withnew opportunities in this scenario is the sovereignwealth fund. Funds like this have provided opportunitiesin countries around the world, most notably Norway,which has a programme for income from oil4. Thisoptimistic view, however, would require a dramatic,immediate, and systemic shift in the way weworktogether redirecting Scotland’s leadership andresources. In order to take advantage of theopportunities that will be available in the next 10 – 15years, wemust work together and look creatively forthemost beneficial investments to create a sustainablefuture.

Scenario 3Opportunities Uninvited provides an unsettling view ofthe way thingsmay unfold. Nobody would invite such aradical upheaval as is presented in this scenario, butperhaps if such an event did occur it would provide thecatalyst tomake some fundamental, radical, andnecessary changes. Shocking events can changemindsets, which is perhaps themost important step toreal change in society. We should, however, be lookingfor ways tomake radical changes whether or not weexperience a devastating event.

Lyons, G., 2007. State Capitalism: The Rise of SovereignWealth Funds, Testimony before the Committee onBanking, Housing and Urban Affairs, United StatesSenate, November 14, 2007.

Pelled, L., 1996.Demographic Diversity, Conflict, andWork Group Outcomes: An Intervening Process Theory.Organization Science, Vol. 7, No. 6, pp. 615-631.

Sanderson, G., (2002). International EducationDevelopments in Singapore. International EducationJournal v.3 n.2

Walkerdine, V. (1998).Counting Girls Out. 2nd edition.London, Falmer.


4 This article provides detailed information onmore than 22 sovereignwealth funds. A detailed analysis of theNorwegian sovereignwealth fund is included and statesNorway’s fundwas valued at 322 billion,93%of GDP in 2007. 80%of oil revenues are invested in this fundwhichwas created in response to a growing pension problem. The fund is set to begin payouts to pensioners in 2015.

Scotland’s Futures Forumwould like to thank the following organisationswho formed a project community to develop the scenario set:

> ScottishEnvironmentProtectionAgency (SEPA)

> ScottishNaturalHeritage

> ScottishEnterprise

> StAndrewsUniversity PhDgroup (BusinessSchool)

> TheScottishGovernment

> RaplochUrbanRegenerationCompany

> TireeCommunity Trust

> YoungScot

> ArchitectureDesignScotland

> QueenMargaretUniversity

> KeithAitken,Writer and Journalist

> SlowFoodMovement

> The’MonstrousRegiment’ network

> Keeping theDoorOpenScotland

> Research00

> Association of Chief Officers of ScottishVoluntaryOrganisations

> VolunteerDevelopment Scotland

> RSE

> ScottishWater

> HorizonScannersGroup

> ScottishFuturesGroup

> SustainableDevelopmentResearchCentre

> TheScottishParliament

> Scottish andNorthern IrelandForum forEnvironmental Research

> Bill Rodger

AcknowledgementsScotland’s Futures Forum Supporters

AssociateMembersThe Association of Chief Police Officers in ScotlandThe Goodison Group in ScotlandHighlands and Islands EnterpriseNHS Education ScotlandRapploch Urban Regeneration CompanyShell UKThe Royal Society of EdinburghNational Trust for ScotlandThe King’s Fund

The Forum is grateful for the financial support given to support thisproject from the organisations listed. However, the contents of this orany other Scotland’s Futures Forum publication, do not necessarilyreflect their views.

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