sustaining lakes in a changing environment (slice) sentinel lakes program ray valley and don pereira
TRANSCRIPT
Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment (SLICE)
Sentinel Lakes Program
Ray Valley and Don Pereira
Talk Outline The Why - History, motivations, and
aims of program
The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection
The How - Data collection activities
and partnerships
The So What - Lessons learned
Talk Outline The Why - History, motivations, and
aims of program
The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection
The How - Data collection activities
and partnerships
The So What - Lessons learned
Why Focus on Lakes?1. Minnesota is known for her
lakes2. Lakes don’t flush3. Focal integrators of time and
space
Why – Glacier-like changes to landscape and climate
Shoreline and nearshore transformations
Impervious surfaces Hydrological transformations Human accelerators of species
spread Climate change
Scheffer and Carpenter 2003
Cum
ulat
ive
impa
cts
of
stre
ssor
s
System “state”
Consequences on Resilience
• Cumulative impacts of stressors
• Stressors to watersheds• Ditching, draining, channeling,
• Impervious surface
• Withdrawing & damming
• Alterations to lakes• Overharvest/Overstocking
• Removal of structure
• Disturbance from watercraft
• Time Lags
• Hysteresis – “can’t go back”• Positive feedbacks
Reality Bites!
In a lot of systems there’s no “going back.” Our expectations and
management approach for these systems should be
different for systems largely “intact”
Enter SLICE – informing expectations and appropriate mgt responses
We ask:1. In highly altered systems, how can we
realistically improve water quality and provide a self-sustaining recreational fishery?
2. In high integrity systems, what watershed and in-lake factors are contributing to their resilience, and how can we keep those resilience mechanisms intact?
3. Early Detection and Rapid Response indicators What indicators tell us “all is not well” and indicate whether our responses are making a difference?
Program aims to: Timely detect change to
habitat conditions and species population communities
Understand and project what is/will come into our lakes (watershed modeling)
Understand and project the ultimate fate of external and internal loads (limnological modeling)
Facilitate structured decision-making and adaptive management
Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment (SLICE)
Talk Outline The Why - History, motivations, and
aims of program
The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection
The How - Data collection activities
and partnerships
The So What - Lessons learned
Phase 1 (Pilot; 2008-2011): Pilot phase Establish
network of sentinel lakes
Partnership and infrastructure building
Independent research projects to assess specific questions
Indicator ID
Phase 2 (2012-2016) Using lessons
learned in Pilot to guide operational program
Eating the elephant one bite at a time!
chrisnierhaus.com
Adaptive Management Process
Assess problem
Evaluate
Adjust
Implement
Design
Monitor
Phase 1: Oct – Jan 2006/2007
May-Jun 2007
Apr. 2008
2008-2011
Phase 2 2013
Phase 1 Op plan
2011-12
2012
Oversight
DNR Fisheries1
Project Coordination2
Ray Valley
Implementation
DNR Fisheries Implementation
Recommendation of direction Informatio
n base
Analysis and Evaluation
Analysis Teams
Syntheses of trends
Technical Advisory Team
Eco and Waters Implementation
PCA Implementation
Local Partners
Citizen Volunteers
Public Information and Outreach
MDH Implementation
DNR Area Staff
Local trends
Local Partners
Local trends
PCA Water Monitoring Unit
Local trends
Ancillary Investigations
Strategic Advisory Team
Planning and Decision Framework
1.
Experimental Design
Three R’s of Statistical Study Design• Realism
• Randomization• Representation
Population Sample
Inference
Questions for us here to consider: At what spatial scale do we want to
draw inference? How much of the state do we want
to cover or how “representative” do we want to be?
How quickly do we want to detect change and “check in on status?”
The answers to these questions will guide the appropriate statistical design
Objective of SLICE:
Annual inference of status and trends in lake indicators at the
Landscape Scale
Sentinel Lake Selection
1. Landtype x 4
Sentinel Lake Selection Stratified Approach
2. Mixing x 2
3. P-Concentration x 3
Other considerations with final candidate pool
PCA “reference” lake Other historical datasets
• Paleolimnology• Rich lake survey history
Unique partnership opportunities• Active local water monitoring
programs
The Sentinel Lakes
SLICE is more than Sentinel Lakes – “Split-
Panel” Design
Panel 1: Sentinel Lakes (2008 - )
= The network of sentinel lakes
Year
1
3
2
5
4
7
6
8
• Stratified sampling design
• Figurative Approach: “6-in wide, 1 mile deep”
• Monitoring system-wide changes at a fine temporal resolution in a small number of systems spread across the state
• Synchronous trends - are things behaving similarly across large scales?
• Cause-effect inference
• Forecast modeling w/ cont. verification
Panel 2: “Random” surveys (2013 - )
Year
1
3
2
5
4
7
6
8
• Approach: “1 Mile-wide 6” deep”
• Focus is on maximizing lakes sampled, minimal time spent at each one.
• Combination with Sentinel panel is powerful for robust inference of status across time and space
• Will focus on utilizing datasets from other ongoing monitoring programs
= Group of Lakes
Sentinel Lake Characteristics (ranges)
Min MaxWatershed Size (acres) 278 595,864Lake Size (acres) 91 5,047Lake Max Depth (ft) 11 208Avg Total P (ppb) 6 (O) 278 (HE)Avg Secchi (ft) 2 19GS Length 2009 (d > 5C) 185 236Avg. Epi Summer Temp (C) 18.4 22.1Alkalinity (mg/L CaCO3) 13 317# on 303d impairment list 6
Sentinel Lake watershed sizes are skewed
Median = 31 km2
Median = 9
Are these watersheds representative of other Minnesota lake watersheds??
Median = 12 km2
Median = 12km2
Median = 10
Sentinel Lake watershed sizes are representative!
Median = 31 km2
Median = 9
Talk Outline The Why - History, motivations, and
aims of program
The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection
The How - Data collection activities
and partnerships
The So What - Lessons learned
Question:What data do we need
and who’s going to collect it?
Started with a conceptual model of
system behavior
Right partners for the right job1. PCA, DNR, SNF, Citizen Volunteers, local
units of govt, researchers efficiently deployed
2. Research staff evaluating:• Indicator “vetting” – signal:noise• Appropriate lake and watershed models• Reconstructing past conditions• Efficient sampling methodology
3. Reporting and data management structures in place.
4. Leveraging multiple funding sources
“If you build it, they will come” A platform for interdisciplinary study of
lakes Independent “off-shoot” projects focused
on:• Cold-water fish and habitat• Historical reconstructions of water quality and
zooplankton• Zooplankton patterns• Groundwater-surface water interactions
“Free” Analysis off of our “Free” data Projects, investigators, lakes involved, and
contact info is being tracked on SLICE web page
Talk Outline The Why - History, motivations, and
aims of program
The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection
The How - Data collection activities
and partnerships
The So What - Lessons learned
Lessons Learned – Successes Eating an elephant one
bite at a time Right partners doing
the right job We built it and now
they are coming Structured-decision
making and adaptive learning process
Lessons Learned – Mulligans
Take logistics as seriously as strategy
Designating a project/program “Coordinator” is a no-brainer and something the state does
well
The logistics of who they are coordinating is another matter
entirely that rarely receives sufficient attention
Span of Control Issues: Herding Cats
Getting dozens of staff to be all doing the same thing is not easy!
Other Admin Issues to consider
Data QA/QC Data management and dissemination Appropriate staffing for the
workloads Communication plan
Departing thoughts… Stressors are slowly wearing away the resilience of
our water and fisheries resources Greater urgency with lakes – they are our legacy
and they don’t flush. Most MN lake watersheds are small – good from a
management standpoint. The interdisciplinary partnerships are the backbone
of SLICE Advice for sentinel watershed planning – give
logistic operations of carrying out a program its due during the planning process.
Funding and Partners