svein harald oygard shares his insights on the global economic outlook of oil at the oil & money...
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At the 2012 Oil & Money Conference, energy elites heard insights from Mckinsey & Company's director, Svein Harald Oygard when he shared his opinions on the global economic outlook of oil as well as the fact that China has been the main commodity industry growth driver. You can share his insights below by reading his presentation in full. If you are interested in the global oil market, join us at Oil & Money Conference 2013 where you can join the session on 'The Global Short and Medium Term Oil Market Outlook' with speakers including Jan Stuart, Managing Director, Global Head Energy, Commodities Research, Credit Suisse, chaired by David Knapp, Director of Oil Markets Analysis, Energy Intelligence. If you want to find out about this year's crucial issues facing the international energy sector, then join us at Oil & Money this October at the InterContinental London Park Lane. For more information visit www.oilandmoney.comTRANSCRIPT
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-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Growth world demand% yoy
2020201020009080701965
SOURCE: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010; McKinsey Oil & Gas demand and supply model
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2020201020009080701965
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
202020102000801965 9070
Percent
OECD
BRIC and ROW
WORLD
IEA WEO 2010 NP
Historical data
Prolonged recession
0,5%
The “Prolonged adjustment” scenario leads to a growth of 0,5% per year
|
1,200
1,000
800600
400200
0201020092008200720062005200420032002
1,725
3,137
1,579
2,669
1,816
2,404
1,967
3,000
2,8002,600
2,4002,200
2,000
1,8001,600
1,400
1,8121,882
1,399
1,756
1,084
1,655
904
1,516
722
1,488
586
USA
Financial(Negative)
China
Financial(Positive)
Real investments
Source: The World Bank
Investment levels; Bn USD per year
China is ahead of the US 2 to 1 on investments
2
|
42
GDP PPP terms
14
Oil
10
Coal
49
Iron Ore
57
Steel1
45
Copper
41
Aluminum
41
Source: WMBS Yearbook; McKinsey Iron Ore Demand Model; BP Statistical Review; EIA; IMF
Share of global consumption; Share of world GDP at PPP terms; Percent; 2011, 2010 for steel
x3
China has been the main commodity industry growth d river
3
